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COT

Sugar SB Futures: Extreme COT Divergence – Short Squeeze Ahead? ICEUS:SB1! 🔎 Market Situation The latest COT report shows one of the most extreme positioning imbalances in 18 years for Sugar #11: • Commercials: Net Long 128,130 contracts → 2nd highest since 2007 (only surpassed in Sep/Oct 2020 with ~160k). • Non-Commercials (Funds): Net Short –125,628 contracts, almost a mirror image. • COT Index: above 80% since July, peaking at 100% → continuous accumulation by Commercials. • Open Interest: very high → massive market participation. • On-Balance Volume (OBV): still negative → typical for final shakeouts before reversals. 📈 Historical Parallels Looking back at the 5 biggest Commercial Long positions (2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2025): 2020: +55% rally within 3–6 months after record Commercial longs. 2015: +30% rally within 90 days. Other cases: Average performance +10% (T+30), +21% (T+60), +31% (T+90). 👉 Every major COT extreme in Sugar was followed by a double-digit rally. 🟢 Trading Idea (Setup) Bias: Bullish (expecting potential short squeeze / fund covering). Entry Trigger: Breakout above key moving averages (e.g. 50-day SMA). Stop: ATR-based or below recent swing lows. 🎯 Targets TP1 = partial profit at +1.5R. TP2 = trend-following → historically, rallies extended 20–30% within 2–3 months. 📅 Seasonality: Q4–Q1 tends to be bullish for Sugar (ethanol demand, Brazil harvest). ⚖️ Risk/Reward Historical CRV of similar setups: 1:3 to 1:5. Best rallies occurred when Commercials held positions >100k for several weeks while funds stayed heavily short. 📌 Conclusion Sugar is showing one of the rarest COT setups of the past two decades. Commercials are heavily long, funds massively short, and open interest is extreme. The last time this happened (2020), Sugar rallied more than 50%. 📈 History suggests we could see another powerful move higher. ⚠️ Reminder: Next WASDE report → 09 Oct 2025
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by DerAndi72
GBP/USD Setup: Breakout or Fakeout at 1.3600 Key Level?🔎 Technical Analysis On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3550 after rejecting the dynamic support of the ascending channel. The key resistance lies at 1.3600. A daily close above this level could open the way towards 1.3700–1.3750, a strong supply zone. RSI remains in consolidation, far from extremes, suggesting more room for upside. Scenarios: Bullish: Break above 1.3600 → target 1.3700–1.3750. Bearish: Rejection below 1.3500 → retracement to 1.3400, extension to 1.3280. 📊 COT Report USD Index (CFTC 09/09/2025): Non-commercials added +5.5K longs and +6K shorts, net short remains dominant → slightly weak USD bias. British Pound: Non-commercials trimmed longs (-1.2K) and shorts (-748), but commercials added massive longs (+66K) → long-term bullish hedging on GBP. 👉 Overall: GBP supported, USD weak → bullish bias for GBP/USD. 📅 Seasonality September historically shows a neutral/slightly bearish tendency for GBP/USD (-0.3% average over 20 years). The 2-year model suggests a mid-September drawdown followed by recovery in October. 👉 Mixed bias: short-term weakness possible, but October seasonality favors GBP strength. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 63% short vs 37% long. Retail is heavily short – a classic contrarian signal, pointing towards a possible upside liquidity grab above 1.3600–1.3700. 📌 Trading Plan Primary bias: Bullish above 1.3500 targeting 1.3700–1.3750. Confirmations: COT favors GBP, retail short, bullish technical structure. Risks: September seasonality slightly bearish → potential pullback to 1.3450 before resuming higher.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025) EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias. USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar. 👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD. 📊 Seasonality September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month. 👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities. 🧠 Sentiment Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long. Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias. 📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1) Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress). Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster). Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted). Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought. ✅ Operational Summary EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside. Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance. Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
CADJPY Breakdown Incoming? Specs Selling CAD, Buying JPY1. Retail Sentiment 68% long vs 32% short → The majority of retail traders are positioned long. From a contrarian perspective, this increases the risk of a downside move to flush out these long positions. 2. Seasonality JPY (September): historically tends to appreciate from mid-month onward. CAD (September): historically weak, with flat to negative performance. Seasonal Bias: favors strong JPY / weak CAD → bearish CADJPY outlook. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) CAD (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: still heavily net short (128k short vs 21k long). Commercials: strong long exposure (218k), but speculative flows remain bearish. Bias: CAD continues to be sold by speculators → bearish pressure. JPY (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: net long (161k long vs 100k short). Commercials: strong shorts (163k), as usual for hedging. Bias: speculators are accumulating JPY longs, reinforcing strength. 👉 COT View = Weak CAD, Strong JPY → Bearish confirmation for CADJPY. 4. Technical Analysis Current price: 106.77, trading inside the daily demand zone (106.50–106.00). Structure: Well-defined descending channel. Multiple bounces in the 106.00–106.20 area → key support zone. RSI neutral, not yet oversold. Scenarios: Scenario A (probable): break below 106.20 → extension towards 105.50, then 104.80 (swing low zone). Scenario B (alternative): technical bounce from demand (106.20–106.00) → recovery towards 107.80/108.00 (weekly supply). ✅ Conclusion: CADJPY shows a bearish setup supported by COT, seasonality, and contrarian sentiment. The technicals highlight a descending channel with potential breakdown below 106.00. Best setups: short on pullbacks with targets at 105.50–105.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/GBP at a Critical Level: Breakout or Fakeout?1. Seasonal Tendencies September over a 20y–15y horizon is historically neutral to slightly positive. In the last 5y and 2y, however, seasonality has shown stronger bullish tendencies with significant average gains. October, on the other hand, historically turns negative, suggesting that the current bullish momentum may face resistance and a potential reversal next month. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Short-term bullish support until the end of September, but a correction risk in October. 2. Sentiment 90% of retail traders are short from around 0.8623. Only 10% are long, with worse average entries at 0.8682. Such an extreme imbalance signals a high risk of a bullish squeeze: retail traders are fighting the trend and often end up trapped. 📌 Sentiment Conclusion: Contrarian bullish → likely continuation higher into liquidity zones. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Euro: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-4,788) and added shorts (+3,130). Commercials increased longs. Net pressure is bearish from speculators, but institutional support remains. Pound: Non-Commercials increased longs (+5,947) and cut shorts heavily (-21,078). Commercials drastically reduced longs (-71,750). Speculators are becoming more bullish on GBP, while institutions are scaling back. Short-term this may favor GBP, but with retail heavily short on EUR/GBP, there’s still room for upward pressure. 📌 COT Conclusion: Mixed outlook, but with a slightly bullish bias on EUR/GBP as long as the market unwinds retail shorts. 4. Technical Analysis (Daily Chart) EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8720, testing a daily supply area (0.8730–0.8770). Structure: ascending channel, with the latest bullish impulse from 0.8620. RSI is in overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. 📌 Technical Conclusion: The market is at a critical juncture → a break above 0.8730 opens the door for longs, while a strong rejection would confirm a correction. Overall Bias: Slightly bullish in the short term (September + retail shorts), but reversal risk rises into October.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
Bitcoin Blow-Off TopBitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally into the $120k region. On the weekly timeframe, several signals point toward a potential corrective leg lower: 📊 Key Technicals Major Supply Zone: $115k–$120k area has acted as resistance, with sellers defending this level. Trend Structure: Price has broken momentum after the blow-off move and is now trading below recent highs. EMA Support: Price is extended above the EMA 60 (94k), leaving room for mean reversion. COT Data: Commercials are heavily net short with a COT Index blow-off signal, indicating distribution from strong hands to weak hands. 🎯 Trade Thesis The risk-reward favors the short side from current levels. Initial downside target sits at the $95k region (prior resistance turned support + EMA alignment). A break of that level could open the door toward the $80k handle in the medium term. 📌 Plan Entry: 114k–116k Stop: Above 120k Targets: TP1: 95k TP2: 80k 💡 This setup combines market structure, supply zone rejection, and institutional positioning via COT. The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback before any further sustainable rally.
CME:BTC1!Short
by AlphaTurtle
Sugar Futures Long SetupThis is my play — based on seasonality, COT index, and supply/demand. Seasonality into Q4 historically supports sugar strength. COT Index: commercials/hedgers are now heavily long, which typically signals a turning point — these players are often positioned opposite speculators at major inflection zones. Managed money has been trimming shorts, opening the door for a short-cover rally. Price is pressing into a long-term base zone, with RSI washed out and downside momentum stalling. Trade Plan ✅ Entry: initiating longs around current levels (~15.8c/lb). 🎯 Target (TP): 17.50c/lb — confluence of prior resistance and seasonal tendency. 🔒 Stop: under recent structure lows (~14.8c/lb) for clean invalidation. Bias Positioning, seasonals, and supply/demand all line up for a long setup. With commercials positioned aggressively long, I see this as a potential turning point with asymmetric upside into 17.5c. ⚠️ Not financial advice — just my read on sugar positioning and seasonals.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by AlphaTurtle
USDCAD Breakdown Ahead? Seasonality & COT Divergence1. Retail Sentiment 59% short vs. 41% long: retail traders are moderately short on USD/CAD. This leaves room for a potential upside squeeze, but positioning is not extreme, so the contrarian signal remains only partial. 2. COT Report US Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short USD (–5,558 contracts). Commercials net long USD (+6,642 contracts). → Speculators are unloading USD, pointing to structural weakness. Canadian Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short CAD (–108,917 contracts). Commercials net long CAD (+115,041 contracts). → A classic pattern: commercials are buying CAD while speculators remain heavily short. Historically, such extreme divergence often precedes CAD appreciation phases. COT Summary: USD: weakness from speculators. CAD: commercials strongly long, speculators extremely short. → Clear divergence: potential CAD strength, bearish bias for USD/CAD. 3. Seasonality September has historically been bearish for USD/CAD: –0.37% over the last 20 years. Also negative on 10- and 2-year averages, more mixed on 5 years. The second half of the month tends to favor CAD strength. 4. Technical Outlook Supply Zone: 1.3850–1.3900 (key resistance repeatedly tested and rejected). Demand Zone: 1.3700–1.3720 (first short target), followed by 1.3600–1.3650. Structure: Strong rejection from the 1.3890 area. Lower highs forming. 50–100–200 MAs in bearish confluence. Daily rejection candle, confirming downside continuation potential. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (short USD/CAD). Setup: Short on pullbacks to 1.3840–1.3860. Target 1: 1.3720. Target 2: 1.3650. Invalidation: daily close above 1.3900. Confluences: ✔ Retail moderately short → room for squeeze, but not extreme. ✔ COT: weak USD + strong CAD commercials → bullish CAD signal. ✔ Seasonality: September historically bearish for USD/CAD. ✔ Technicals: rejection at supply + bearish structure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD at Make-or-Break Zone: Rejection Incoming1. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials (speculators) remain net short on the dollar (13,645 long vs 18,666 short). However, last week saw a slight increase in longs (+487) and a decrease in shorts (-597). This indicates a modest improvement in sentiment toward the greenback, though not yet a full reversal. Euro: Non-commercials remain heavily long (255,660 long vs 136,068 short). Yet, last week showed a reduction in longs (-2,726) and an increase in shorts (+721), suggesting profit-taking and weaker bullish conviction. 👉 Overall, the COT reflects a potential rebalancing: euro net longs are being reduced, while dollar shorts are unwinding. This aligns with a possible relative strengthening of the USD. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, while only 28% are long. 👉 A classic contrarian signal: when the majority is short, the risk of upside squeezes remains. However, context matters—price is near key technical resistance, which leaves room for a potential fake-out to the upside before a reversal. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been slightly positive for EUR/USD (+0.0021 average over the past 20 years). 👉 Seasonality favors a mild sideways-to-bullish bias in the early weeks of the month, with heightened volatility mid-month. 4. Technical Analysis (Chart) Price is trading around a major resistance zone (1.1750–1.1800), which has already been rejected multiple times. Structure: consolidation persists within the 1.1650–1.1750 range. Key demand lies at 1.1550–1.1600, extending down toward 1.1400 if breakdown occurs. RSI is neutral—not overbought—leaving room for directional moves. 👉 Technical setup: failure to break 1.1750 opens the risk of a retracement toward 1.1600–1.1550, and potentially 1.1400, consistent with your chart projection. Conclusion COT: euro longs unwinding, dollar shorts decreasing → tilt in favor of USD. Retail sentiment: contrarian, heavily short → risk of short-term upside spikes. Seasonality: mild positive bias in September with mid-month volatility. Technical: strong resistance at 1.1750, risk of rejection toward 1.1600–1.1550. 📌 Trading Bias : Neutral-to-bearish. In the short term, EUR/USD could test/spike above 1.1750 to hunt stops, but the medium-term outlook (COT + technicals) remains skewed toward a bearish correction into 1.1550–1.1450. Only a solid weekly breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short scenario.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
NASDAQ on the Edge: Head & Shoulders + Bearish SeptemberOn the daily chart, a clear Head & Shoulders formation has developed: left shoulder in mid-July, head in early August, and right shoulder completed at the end of August. The neckline has been broken with volatility, and price is now retesting the supply zone at 23,600–23,800. This pullback aligns with a weekly area of strong supply, suggesting a potential rejection. The projected target of the pattern points toward 22,800–22,600, an area overlapping with a key structural support. RSI shows bearish divergence and remains below the midline, reinforcing the short bias. COT Report (August 26, 2025) Non-Commercials (funds/speculators): +1,875 longs, -362 shorts → small long increase, but without strong conviction. Commercials (hedgers): -5,832 longs, -1,579 shorts → clear reduction in long exposure, less bullish protection. Net change: -5,275 longs → overall unwinding of long positioning, signaling underlying weakness. Interpretation: Speculators remain net long, but commercials significantly cut exposure, suggesting caution on further upside. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a negative month for NASDAQ: 10-year average: -148 pts 5-year average: -313 pts 2-year average: -804 pts The seasonal pattern supports a bearish bias, with weakness usually concentrated in the first half of the month. Synthesis & Trade Bias Technical: Bearish Head & Shoulders → target 22,800–22,600. COT: Net long reduction by commercials → bearish pressure. Seasonality: September statistically weak. ➡️ Bias: Short on NASDAQ (NQ).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
AUD/JPY at Make-or-Break Zone: Final Squeeze Before a Big Drop?1. Technical Analysis AUD/JPY is trading around 96.90, testing the 97.00–97.50 resistance zone. This area has been rejected multiple times in the past and represents a key technical cluster. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. Price action shows potential exhaustion of the recent rally: the current candle is struggling to break resistance, and a rejection here could trigger a correction towards the 95.00–94.50 demand zone. Structurally, as long as there is no weekly close above 97.50, the preferred scenario remains short from resistance. 2. COT Report AUD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (129k short vs 28k long). Downside pressure on the Australian Dollar remains strong, supported by institutional positioning. JPY: Non-Commercials are skewed to the long side (170k long vs 86k short), signaling institutional demand for the Yen as a safe-haven asset. 👉 The COT combination indicates a structural bias in favor of JPY strength and AUD weakness, reinforcing the bearish AUD/JPY outlook. 3. Retail Sentiment 79% short vs 21% long. The majority of retail traders are already short, which increases the risk of a short-term squeeze. However, since price is testing a major resistance zone, upside potential remains limited. A possible “stop hunt” towards 97.50–98.00 would still align with the broader bearish setup. 4. Seasonality AUD in September: Historically weak, with average negative returns between -0.6% and -1.6% across different time horizons. JPY in September: Historically strong, with average positive returns of +0.5% to +1.5%. 👉 Seasonality supports a bearish view on AUD/JPY for September. 5. Strategic Outlook AUD/JPY is at a critical turning point. The macro (COT & seasonality) and technical context support a bearish rejection from 97.00–97.50. However, retail positioning suggests the market may orchestrate one last squeeze towards 98.00 before reversing. Suggested Strategy: Wait for confirmation of rejection or a false breakout at resistance to enter short positions, targeting 95.50 initially and 94.50 as an extension.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBPAUD Ready for a Breakdown?1. Retail Sentiment 62% of retail traders are long on GBPAUD, while 38% are short. Historically, retail positioning tends to be contrarian: an excess of longs often signals further downside pressure. Volume: 824 long lots vs 506 short lots → net long exposure. ➡ Bias: Contrarian short 2. COT Report GBP (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials (speculators): 76k longs vs 107k shorts → net short of -31k. Commercials: net long, but mainly for hedging purposes. Trend: large speculators are slightly increasing shorts (+866) while reducing longs (-5,302). ➡ Bias: GBP weakness AUD (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials: 28k longs vs 129k shorts → heavily net short AUD. Commercials have significantly increased long positions (+10,892). Speculators remain bearish, but defensive positioning is building up. ➡ Bias: AUD still weak, but showing early signs of stabilization 3. Seasonality (September) GBP: historically negative in September (weakness). AUD: historically shows a moderately positive trend in September, especially in the last 10 years. ➡ Bias: GBPAUD historically bearish in September 4. Technical Analysis Structure: the market rejected the 2.09 supply zone and is now consolidating within the 2.03–2.09 range. Price action suggests a possible rebound towards 2.07–2.08 before a potential breakdown towards 2.03. ➡ Technical bias: Short from supply zones at 2.07–2.08 targeting 2.04–2.03 5. Summary & Trading Scenarios Macro/COT: GBP remains weak, AUD under pressure but with accumulation signs → mixed outlook, but seasonality favors AUD. Sentiment: retail traders excessively long → confirms short bias. Technical: bearish structure with key supports at 2.0430 and 2.0318. 👉 Conclusion: At the moment, GBPAUD shows a bearish bias supported by retail sentiment, seasonality, and price action. The most likely scenario is a test of the 2.04–2.03 zone in the coming weeks.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
AUD/USD – Last Push Before September Weakness?1. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are currently short on AUD/USD, with an average entry around 0.6459. Historically, when retail positioning is heavily skewed to one side, the market often moves in the opposite direction. This suggests short-term upside potential (contrarian perspective). 2. COT Report (AUD & USD Index) AUD (CME): Non-Commercials remain heavily short (129k vs 28k long), keeping speculative positioning bearish on AUD. However, Commercials significantly increased their long exposure (+10,892), indicating institutional accumulation. USD Index (ICE): Non-Commercials hold 19k shorts vs 13k longs, showing a bearish tilt on USD, with additional shorts added (+1,916). Commercials remain net long (12k vs 6k short), defending dollar strength. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Speculators remain bearish on AUD and moderately bearish on USD. This divergence suggests potential sideways movement or consolidation in the short term. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a weak month for AUD/USD, with negative performance across the past 5–15 years. Seasonal curves confirm a bearish bias, especially in the first half of the month. 4. Technical Analysis Supply Zone: Approaching strong weekly/monthly supply at 0.6600–0.6650. RSI: Rising toward overbought, pointing to possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. Structure: Price may complete a test of 0.6600–0.6650 before retracing back to demand zones at 0.6450 and 0.6400. Trend Dynamics: The medium-term trend remains bearish, with corrective rallies providing opportunities to short. Operational Outlook Short-term Bias (1–2 weeks): Potential final push toward 0.6600–0.6650, driven by contrarian sentiment and COT divergence. Medium-term Bias (September): Expected weakness with downside targets at 0.6450 → 0.6400, aligned with seasonality and speculative positioning. Strategy: Look for short reversal setups around 0.6600–0.6650 with H4/H1 confirmation (structure break or engulfing pattern). Stop above 0.6700, targets at 0.6450 / 0.6400.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD at a Breaking Point: 1.1450 Demand in FocusCommitment of Traders (COT) USD Index (ICE Futures): Non-Commercials reduced both long (-1,370) and short (-1,629) positions. Positioning remains net short on the dollar (11,359 long vs 17,347 short), signaling relative weakness of the greenback. EUR Futures (CME): Non-Commercials significantly increased long positions (+6,420) and also added shorts (+3,106), but net long exposure remains dominant (252,719 long vs 133,974 short). This reflects renewed bullish interest in the euro. 📌 COT Summary: Institutional flows indicate a bullish bias on EUR and bearish bias on USD, supporting a medium-term long outlook on EUR/USD. Seasonality August is historically a weak month for the euro: seasonality shows, on average, a decline in EUR/USD during the second half of the month into early September, followed by a recovery later in Q3. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Slightly bearish in the short term, with potential for a rebound later. Retail Sentiment 58% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, compared with 42% long. 📌 Contrarian view: This increases the probability of a bullish move, as retail positioning is skewed against the trend. Technical Context Structure: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1636, within a range, with a supply zone above 1.1750 and a key demand zone between 1.1520–1.1450. RSI: Neutral, with no extreme overbought/oversold conditions. Primary Scenario: Potential further dip towards 1.1520–1.1450, where institutional buyers may re-enter. Secondary Scenario: If this support breaks, the next target lies in the 1.1350–1.1400 zone. Key Resistance: 1.1750–1.1800. 📌 Operational View: The market may still release downward pressure in the short term, but the 1.1450–1.1500 area appears strategic for potential long entries aligned with COT and sentiment.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
XAU/USD: Gold at Make-or-Break – Will 3400 Hold or Break?Macro & Fundamental Context Gold remains highly influenced by Fed rate expectations: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole opened the door to possible rate cuts as early as September. This is pressuring the US dollar lower and supporting precious metals, but at the same time, persistently high inflation and strong US macro data (PPI at the highest level since February) maintain a risk of two-way volatility. COT & Sentiment COT Report: Non-Commercials (speculators) remain strongly net long (275k contracts vs 62k short), but in recent weeks we’ve seen a decline of 12,800 longs and an increase of 4,000 shorts → clear signs of profit-taking. Commercials (hedgers) remain heavily net short (316k contracts), consistent with a defensive stance at current resistance levels. Retail Sentiment: 56% short vs 44% long → slightly contrarian, as retail traders tend to sell strength. Seasonality Historically, August is a bullish month for gold (+25–30 avg points over 10/15 years). However, September has one of the worst seasonal performances of the year (-11% over 20y, -29% over 10y). This reinforces the view that late-August rallies could turn into deeper corrections in September. Technical Analysis Daily Chart: Gold is currently testing a key supply zone at 3380–3400, with a bearish reaction already visible. RSI shows relative overbought conditions. Key Levels: Primary Resistance: 3400–3420 (supply + July highs). Intermediate Support: 3280–3300 (demand zone + weekly block). Bearish Target: 3240–3200 (major demand + bullish rejection block). Operational Outlook Base Case (most likely): Rejection from 3400 → retracement towards 3280/3240 → short setups favored with confirmation on H4/H1. Alternative Scenario (less likely but possible): Breakout above 3420 with a weekly close → bullish continuation confirmed → targets at 3480–3520. Risk Management: Extreme caution ahead of Powell’s speech and NFP release, as both could quickly invalidate setups.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
USD/CAD: The Perfect Storm for a Bullish BreakoutUSD/CAD is consolidating above 1.3850 after a strong bullish impulse. The technical structure shows: A breakout from the summer bullish channel projecting towards 1.3950–1.4050, a key weekly resistance zone. RSI remains neutral but strengthening, with no signs of immediate overextension. Institutional demand around 1.3700 firmly rejected the downside, signaling strong long accumulation. 📌 Key levels: Support at 1.3750 / 1.3700 – Resistance at 1.3950 / 1.4050. Commitments of Traders (COT) USD Index: Non-commercial longs increasing (+1,330) with a slight reduction in shorts. Moderately bullish bias for USD. CAD Futures: Significant increase in non-commercial shorts (+7,966) while longs decline (-2,691). Institutions are clearly selling CAD. 📌 This reinforces the bullish bias on USD/CAD, with speculative positioning strongly in favor of the US Dollar. Seasonality (August–September) Historically, August tends to be neutral/slightly bearish for USD/CAD, but September shows a strong bullish pattern, with consistent positive averages over the last 10–20 years. 📌 This supports a continuation of the bullish trend in the coming weeks, especially towards the 1.40+ area. Retail Sentiment 78% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, with an average entry price at 1.3780. Only 22% are positioned long. 📌 Classic contrarian signal: excessive retail bearishness increases the probability of further upside. ✅ Trading Outlook The overall picture shows alignment across technicals, COT, seasonality, and sentiment. USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias: Primary scenario: Extension towards 1.3950 and then 1.4050, a major weekly supply zone. Alternative scenario: Controlled pullback to 1.3800–1.3750 before resuming higher. Invalidation: Daily close below 1.3700 would open space towards 1.3550. 📌 Bias: Long USD/CAD towards 1.3950–1.4050.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base). Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision. COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases. Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead. 🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation. Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth). A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/CHF: The Trap Is Set!EUR/CHF Full Analysis 1. Seasonality EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September. CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive. 👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF). 2. Retail Sentiment 55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short. 👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal. 3. COT Report (19 August 2025) Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling. CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction. 👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF. 4. Technicals Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing. Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside. Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower. Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260. Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450. 📌 Conclusion: Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/USD at Weekly Supply – Is the Pound About to Collapse?Technical Outlook: GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3535, testing a significant weekly supply zone between 1.3500–1.3600. The recent bullish impulse has brought price back into a strong confluence area marked by prior distribution in late July. The RSI is approaching overbought levels on the daily chart, suggesting a potential short-term exhaustion of buying momentum. My base scenario anticipates a rejection from the current zone, with the possibility of a retracement toward 1.3250–1.3150, aligning with the next demand area and historical price reaction. The projected short-term pattern shows a potential lower high forming before a deeper move down toward the yearly lows. COT Positioning: USD Index (as of 05 Aug 2025): Non-commercials decreased longs by -2,561 and slightly increased shorts (+313), showing a minor bearish tilt for USD in the short term. GBP Futures: Large specs significantly reduced longs (-22,164) while also trimming shorts (-889), with commercials adding substantial long exposure (+20,125). This shift indicates reduced speculative confidence in GBP upside, while commercial buying suggests hedging or value positioning. Overall, COT data tilts toward a potential GBP correction rather than sustained breakout. Seasonality: GBP/USD historically underperforms in the second half of August across 5, 10, and 15-year averages. The 20-year tendency shows a mild decline starting mid-month into early September, aligning with the current resistance test and potential for downside momentum. Sentiment: Retail sentiment shows 66% short vs. 34% long. The majority of retail traders are positioned against the recent bullish push, which could fuel a brief squeeze higher before reversal. However, the confluence of COT, technical resistance, and seasonality keeps the medium-term bias bearish. Conclusion & Bias: Primary scenario: Short bias from 1.3530–1.3600 supply zone targeting 1.3250, then 1.3150 if momentum confirms. Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3650 would weaken the short setup and open the path toward 1.3700–1.3750.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
AUD/JPY at Decision Point – Bulls or Bears to Take Control?1. COT Analysis JPY: Net shorts among Non-Commercials increased (+5.3K shorts, -1.8K longs), indicating growing bearish pressure on the yen. Commercials, however, heavily accumulated longs (+13.5K), suggesting that large players may be hedging or positioning for a potential yen rebound. AUD: Still heavily net short, with Non-Commercials reducing longs (-2.5K) and slightly increasing shorts (+2.9K). This reflects a continued speculative bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar. → COT Implication: The divergence between a heavily shorted JPY and an AUD already under bearish pressure can lead to increased volatility. Without supportive macro drivers for the AUD, the pair may struggle to sustain upward moves. 2. Seasonality JPY: Historically weak in August (20-year average: -0.61%), with sharper declines in the last 5 and 2 years. This tends to favor AUD/JPY upside in the first part of the month. AUD: Slightly positive in the past 2 years (+0.01%), but negative over longer periods. → Short-term seasonality is moderately supportive of upside, but historical patterns don’t back a strong directional trend. 3. Sentiment Retail positioning: 63% short vs 37% long. Historically, retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of major moves, making this setup moderately bullish for AUD/JPY in the short term. 4. Technical Analysis Weekly Supply Zone: 96.88–98.77. Price is currently below this area after a strong rejection in recent weeks. Weekly Demand Zone: 94.90–95.00, previously tested with a bullish reaction. RSI: Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold signals, but slightly tilted downward on the weekly timeframe. Price Action: Current candle shows a recovery attempt after a bearish rejection, but unless the weekly closes above 96.92, the risk of another drop toward 95 remains high. 5. Trading Bias Bullish Scenario: Weekly break & close above 96.92 with volume → Target 97.80 / 98.50. Bearish Scenario: Weekly rejection below 96.90 and daily break of 95.80 → Target 95.00 / 94.50. Macro Context: In risk-on environments, AUD tends to outperform JPY; in risk-off, the yen rebounds quickly. 📌 Summary: Short-term neutral-to-bullish bias driven by contrarian retail sentiment and moderately bullish seasonality, but 96.92 remains a critical resistance that must be broken to unlock more upside. Failure here could send the pair back to 95.00, with risk of breakdown if macro sentiment worsens.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1