Model projecting (and giving heads up) that a new (small) wave should be starting about 20 Dec 2022. This suggests that Singapore will go into 2023 with a COVID wave mostly brought back by holiday travellers. In fact, it has already started and the model just projects a date line where it gets noticeable for the media/regulators/agencies to pick it up too. IF...
Was in a number of private discussions over this week, and noted that there appears to be some dynamics in motion currently. Quick note that the Singapore 6th COVID wave is pretty turned over, according to the data provided publicly. It was a smaller wave compared to previously, as expected. However, the neighbouring Indonesia is currently in the midst of a wave...
I do not know the robustness of the data collected, as it differs greatly in different places. But with just a quick comparison: Singapore relaxed mask measures on 29 August, and from early September, there was already an uptick and the MACD histograms pointed out to late September crossover. Indeed, on 30 September, CNA reported a 40% week on week increase in...
Quick observation that IF the data is correct, then Australia just started a mini-wave.
Next wave for India appears to be projected about 8 August 2022. It is already on the rise...
Heads up... Next Wave 5 is ON. Not expected to be bigger than the initial Omicron wave, or even Delta for that matter, but significant enough. This probably comes from imported cases with less screening and testing, as well as under reporting. The under reporting is messing with the data outcome and accuracy, also significantly dropping the heads up period......
As posted previously, data is (subtly) showing the start already... IF anyone really still cares. Not expecting to be a major or steep wave... not yet at least. May in crease in may Palindromic pun intended.
As per previously modelled, the projection based on public data on cases project that in early May, Singapore should start the next wave... for now, it looks like a mild spike given the momentum trajectory. 26 April is when more measures are lifted, and rules are further eased... to pre-pandemic level " almost all the way to how things were " So far, model is...
Just an observation here... I have been posting much about using the MACD Histograms to project the spikes and waves of COVID-19 infections, given the data collated on this platform. So far, it has been pretty uncanny in accuracy. Just coming across the Total COVID-19 Confirmed Infections chart, there appears to be an odd divergence on the MACD histograms.. and...
... to spike in April! Already media is openly speaking of that expectation. No surprises, will happen. Data (MACD histogram) projections align. Apparently, NY and FL are already spiking. This is likely the Omicron wave, and it can get out of hand pretty quickly as we have seen in many other countries. Hope that enough preparations have been made!
Wave 4 (Omicron) appears to be tapering off, we would be able to know better in the latter part of March. For now, it would appear that the projection sees a rather steep tapering of COVID cases into end of March. Good news! Not positive! lol...
At the start of the year, it was clear that the Omicron wave (Wave 4) started, as heads up by the previous post. Wave 4 is ON now. In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022 In the last two months, we can see that the infection rate escalated after the turn into February. Depicted by the white and...
A week later from the last update, we see a massive spike in the COVID cases. First, as expected since Oct 20, at the turn of the year, the next wave is set upon India. Second, this wave is very sudden and much bigger in magnitude, particularly in the last week. This will translate to a longer tailing off in the months to come. Third, a new trajectory is...
According to the model, France would not be spared the next wave, but it is delayed until January 2022 thereabouts, based on the current trajectory.
Based on the model, Australia is in an extended huge wave of COVID-19, which built up since its winter in June. the past two weeks spiked even more. Interestingly, we hear very little about it. It did jump significantly over the past two weeks.
Ok.. so according to this model, Italy is going to join in the ranks of the next wave, by December 2021 it should be very clear, and into 2022 it will be in the news.
AM described Germany's COVIS-19 situation as Dramatic. We concur. September 13 was the date is was clear... and it started from August. See how a virus spreads as the last four weeks accelerated much faster than the previous four weeks, so much so, it is visible by eye on the MACD Histograms
Previously, assessed the UK projections on UK Freedom Day, where UK eased off COVID-19 measures. Clearly it did not help as case counts dropped mildly, then started picking up in October. GG... it is rising into 2022. Just how bad remains to be seen.