XRP/BTC – Channel Midline in Play The XRP/BTC pair trade inside a multi-year channel, with price currently testing the midline of this structure — a pivotal level that could define the next macro leg.
If bulls manage to break the midline to the upside and successfully retest it as support, the upper boundary of the channel becomes the next major target.
🔼 Upside Scenario:
A confirmed breakout above the midline would signal structural strength and likely lead to a rally toward the upper channel resistance.
If this move aligns with BTC dominance dropping below the 60% threshold, we could see a full-blown altseason emerge.
Under such conditions, historical XRP/BTC behavior suggests that XRP/USD could reach $12–$24.
🔽 Downside Risk:
Losing the mid-channel from here would weaken the structure and invalidate the breakout thesis.
In that case, XRP/BTC would likely rotate back toward range lows, and a defensive strategy is warranted.
Macro Implication:
The 60% BTC Dominance level remains critical. A clean breakdown below it historically marks the beginning of altseason, where high-beta plays like XRP against BTC have outperformed. XRP’s current posture within the channel reflects this high-stakes moment.
Cryptocurrency
ETHEREUM Massive Triangle break-out ahead??Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a 4-year Triangle for the entirety of this Cycle. The recent post April rally has been the most aggressive since the parabolic rally that led to the Top of the previous Cycle.
The price is now almost on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle. A break above it, can initiate an aggressive Bullish Leg towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($8000), which was the level that was marginally exceeded during ETH's first rally of this Cycle.
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Is there another XRP flag forming on the hourly chart?Could be another flag forming on XRP. Waiting for the formation to prove confirmation as to whether it will be a bull or bear flag.
News of large amounts of XRP entering the exchanges from the CEO could mean a bear flag?
It's only appearing on the hourly so it could be a false flag.
Let's what and see what forms on the hourly candle.
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
After setting a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase, marked by sideways price action and choppy movements.
There's a notable gap around the $114,000 level, which may act as a magnet for price during this correction.
The ongoing pullback is likely to extend toward the key support zone, which aligns with the previous breakout level and the bottom of the ascending channel.
Once this support holds, we could see a bullish reversal, targeting the upper boundary of the channel once again.
As long as Bitcoin remains above the marked support zone, the overall structure stays bullish and this correction may present a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Will Bitcoin fill the gap and bounce back toward new highs? Let us know your thoughts! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Ready to Start to 125KMorning folks,
Better if you combine this update with previous idea. Now it seems that BTC stands in swamp action, flirting around 116K, which might be looking a bit bearish.
But by our view, this is not quite so. First is, triangle patterns as on daily chart as on 4H chart are look great and quite bullish. Pay attention that on 4H chart all sell-offs were bought out.
Our 1.16 lows that we set as vital ones for this scenario area still intact. So, it means that butterfly with 125K target that we discussed last time is also intact. I would say more. If you take a careful look at 1H chart - you could recognize reverse H&S pattern that could trigger all this stuff. It means that we're not in swamp, but at the point where the decision on long entry has to be made...
Take care
S.
Phemex Analysis #99: PENGU Explodes 480%!Will the Hype Continue?Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), a playful and increasingly popular meme coin, has recently made waves in the crypto market due to its rapid price movements and strong community support. Originally inspired by the beloved Pudgy Penguins NFT collection, PENGU has rapidly transitioned from niche interest to broader market phenomenon.
In recent trading, PENGU surged impressively by nearly 480%, primarily fueled by major exchange listings and growing influencer endorsements. Currently trading around $0.041, PENGU has caught the attention of both meme-coin enthusiasts and seasoned crypto traders, sparking debates over its next big move.
With significant market attention and notable volatility, traders now face an essential question: Is PENGU poised for further explosive growth, or should traders brace for a potential pullback? Let's carefully evaluate several likely scenarios.
Possible Scenarios
1. Bullish Breakout (Continuing the Hype!)
PENGU’s recent price action suggests bullish momentum may persist, especially if the community-driven hype continues. A decisive breakout above recent resistance at $0.046—particularly if supported by increasing trading volumes—could accelerate the bullish trend, targeting next levels at $0.05 and possibly the psychological level of $0.08.
Pro Tips:
Entry Strategy: Consider entering positions only after confirmation of a high-volume breakout above $0.046.
Profit-Taking Targets: Plan partial profit-taking around next key resistance zones at $0.05 and $0.08 to manage risk effectively.
Risk Management: Set tight stop-losses just below recent support levels around $0.035.
2. Short-Term Correction (Healthy Retracement)
Given PENGU’s recent rapid rise, a short-term retracement to retest support levels around $0.035 or lower ($0.03) is likely. If this pullback happens on low volume, it could indicate a healthy consolidation rather than a full trend reversal.
Pro Tips:
Buying the Dip: Closely watch support at $0.035 and $0.03; a low-volume test of these levels might provide excellent entry points for traders who missed earlier rallies.
Volume Monitoring: Ensure low-volume retracements—high volume during declines might signal deeper bearish pressure.
3. Bearish Reversal (The Hype Fades)
As is typical with volatile meme coins, sudden reversals can occur if market sentiment swiftly changes. A high-volume drop below critical support around $0.035 could trigger more significant bearish sentiment, potentially targeting deeper support around $0.022 or even $0.0135.
Pro Tips:
Caution on Reversal Signals: Consider exiting or reducing positions if PENGU decisively breaks below key support levels with strong selling volume.
Accumulation Opportunities: Long-term believers might use significant pullbacks toward $0.022 or $0.0135 as strategic accumulation opportunities after price stabilization occurs.
Conclusion
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) currently sits at an intriguing juncture, offering traders both opportunities and risks. Traders should carefully watch the outlined scenarios, particularly breakout signals above $0.046 and support levels around $0.035 and $0.03. Through disciplined entry and exit strategies, attentive volume analysis, and vigilant risk management, traders can navigate PENGU’s volatility and potentially profit from its next big move.
🔥 Tips:
Armed Your Trading Arsenal with advanced tools like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments at Phemex. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
REI/USDT THE NEXT WHALE INCREASE COIN $0,04 TargetREI/USDT THE NEXT WHALE INCREASE COIN
This coin seems to have a powerful DCA effect, which can be confirmed in the coming time frames with a break.
When there is interest, and new confirmations, here below the update.
entering this coin only when there are more confirmations
The first confirmation is to get first out of this box
Bitcoin New Support at 100,000Bitcoin’s trend has been growing from strength to strength — and it’s likely to stay that way. Why?
This trend isn’t driven purely by speculation; it’s supported by strong fundamental reasons.
One of the most widely debated topics in finance today is the comparison between Bitcoin and gold. While both are viewed as stores of value, their long-term roles may diverge significantly.
Yes, gold and bitcoin have been moving up in near perfect synchronization with inflation.
Gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, and since June 2022 — when inflation peaked at 9% — we’ve seen both gold and Bitcoin trend higher up to the present day.
Instead of asking why the Fed isn’t cutting interest rates despite the decline in CPI, perhaps we should ask: why the Fed prefers to maintain rates at the current level. What are they seeing with the data and the developments?
When both gold and Bitcoin hold steady at these elevated levels, it suggests that investors still believe the threat of rising inflation remains valid.
In all bull markets, the path is never straightforward — it’s often jagged along with volatility.
What distinguishes a continuing bull market - is the formation of higher lows along its timeline.
However, like gold which we recently discussed, Bitcoin may be approaching a medium-term resistance.
In this first week of this year tutorial, we observed an inverted hammer in the last month of 2024, suggesting a potential correction in Bitcoin, but yet seeing support at around 82,000 level.
As anticipated, the inverted hammer was followed by a correction here toward our support level at around 82,000, with some false breaks along. From that point, the market resumed its upward climb.
Now, it appears to be encountering resistance again.
Still, as long as the market continues to form higher lows, and the threat of rising inflation still remain, the bull trend should remain intact.
This is how the projection might look when mapped with a trendline.
We observed that the primary parallel trendline is reacting in relationship to each other. Next I would like to explore its secondary channel.
Please don’t interpret this as a literal path. Instead, I hope it serves as a guideline to help you form your own projections as the market evolves.
Gold is preferred by older generations, central banks, and conservative investors. Deeply entrenched in traditional finance and cultural value systems.
Cryptocurrency has a rapid adoption by younger investors, tech-native users, and institutions. Millennials and Gen Z are more likely to trust cryptographic assets than governments or fiat systems.
I will keep an open mind to both inflation hedge asset and their instruments.
Its video version for this tutorial:
Disclaimer This analysis is based on technical studies and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult your licensed broker before investing.
Mirco Bitcoin Futures and Options
Ticker: MBT
Minimum fluctuation:
$5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 per contract
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin - Triangle pattern consolidation!The Bitcoin price action is currently coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, as illustrated in the chart provided. After a significant bullish move earlier this month, BTC has now entered a phase of consolidation, marked by a series of lower highs and higher lows. This has formed a triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout as price nears the apex. The upper boundary of the triangle acts as dynamic resistance, while the rising lower trendline provides firm support. Given the preceding upward momentum leading into this consolidation, the bias slightly favors a breakout to the upside, though the market can always surprise.
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, Bitcoin would need to break convincingly above the descending resistance trendline. Should that occur, the next key level to watch lies within the 4-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $120,500 and $121,400. This region represents an area of inefficiency where price moved rapidly in the past, and it is likely to attract selling pressure again. Bulls would ideally aim to reclaim this zone with strong momentum and potentially use it as support in a retest scenario. A successful retest of the triangle’s upper boundary could also trigger a liquidity grab above recent highs, particularly above the all-time high levels.
Bearish Scenario
On the flip side, a bearish breakout would involve BTC breaking below the ascending support trendline. If this happens, the most probable downside target would be the CME gap left behind from two weekends ago, located between $114,300 and $115,500. This price gap occurred due to the discrepancy between Friday’s closing price and Sunday’s opening price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often a magnet for price reversion. After this gap is filled, it is possible that BTC sees a short-term bounce to retest the triangle from below, before potentially continuing lower to address further imbalances in price action.
How to Confirm a Valid Breakout
Trading triangle patterns can be deceptive, as BTC often exhibits false breakouts designed to trap traders on the wrong side. To confirm a valid breakout, it's crucial to observe at least a few 4-hour candles closing decisively above or below the triangle boundaries. Additionally, breakout strength should be accompanied by a noticeable increase in volume. A breakout without volume confirmation is often a sign of a fake move, and entering trades under such conditions can be highly risky.
Final Thoughts
BTC is currently consolidating within this symmetrical triangle formation, signaling a period of indecision and potential volatility ahead. While both bullish and bearish scenarios are plausible, it is essential to wait for clear confirmation before committing to a position. Patience and discipline are key, especially when navigating patterns prone to fake-outs. For now, remaining on the sidelines until a confirmed breakout occurs may be the most prudent strategy.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
ETH - Altseason ??ETH has rallied sharply and is now entering the major resistance zone between $3,725 and $4,081, which has repeatedly acted as a local top during previous cycles.
This red zone represents a high-supply area, and historically ETH has struggled to break and hold above it without a significant catalyst.
Rejection here could lead to a pullback toward the $2,300–$2,000 range.
A clean breakout and weekly close above $4,081 would flip this resistance into support and open the path toward the all-time high (ATH) at $4,868.
If ETH reclaims this red zone and flips it to support, it will act as a major trigger for a broad Altseason.
Historically, such ETH strength is a key confirmation that capital is rotating from BTC into the altcoin market.
Currently, momentum is favoring bulls unless this red supply zone causes a strong rejection.
BITCOIN Former Resistance turned Support!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating right above the December 17 2024 Pivot trend-line, a level that started off as a massive Resistance delivering two strong rejections but has now been turned into Support, holding this consolidation.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will soon cross this Pivot trend-line and will confirm it as a Support with the price technically looking for a new Bullish Leg towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at least ($138000), similar to the April - May uptrend, which also consisted of an Accumulation Phase much like the current.
Can the Pivot trend-line provide the necessary support for such a rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOGEUSD Is that a textbook Livermore Cylinder to $1.5 ??Doge (DOGEUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone for the majority of its Bull Cycle since the October 09 2023 Low. We may technically claim that this has been so far one massive Accumulation Phase, along with the rest of the altcoin market.
A pattern that draws strong comparisons with that Megaphone has been 'Livermore's Accumulation Cylinder'. Jesse Livermore, an American stock trader, came with a revolutionary trading pattern a century ago, whose principles often apply perfectly to today's financial assets.
This is what we do on today's Dogecoin analysis, we apply this Accumulation Cyclinder on Doge's Bullish Megaphone. Even though not a perfect fit obviously, the main characteristics apply, with clearly visible Bullish and Bearish Legs.
Based on this model, the market is right now starting the aggressive break-out phase above the Cylinder. Technically the Accumulation is over and the price may pursue levels 8 and 9, which give price Targets of $1.50 and $12.00 respectively.
Now, even though $12.00 falls well after (6 months or so) the expected duration of the current Bull Cycle, $1.50 is well within its limits (October - November 2025) and exactly double the price of the previous Cycle High. This makes it a very attractive Top candidate.
So do you think Doge is inside a Livermore Cylinder that is about to break out parabolically?
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What to expect in the crypto market until 2026 ?!📈 Today, we will look at the graph of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, as well as the implementation of our ideas from 2022 to 2025.
At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a total depression, there was no talk of BlackRock or MicroStrategy buying cryptocurrencies, and we stubbornly wrote that this was the bottom... and then a miracle happened)
During this time, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew 5 times from $800 million to $4 billion.
ℹ️ You can find all posts in the channel by searching by date:
1️⃣ 18.11.22 - “How much can the crypto market capitalization grow by the end of 2025?”
The growth momentum is slowing down, but the following ideas give hope.
2️⃣ December 30, 2022 - “Plans for 2023-25”
If we are to believe this fractal, which has been working for over 2.5 years, then all the most interesting things are still ahead.
3️⃣ 29.02.2024 - “What to expect from the crypto market in 2024-26”
At the beginning of 2024, the previously published fractal was slightly adjusted to the market situation.
4️⃣ 04.03.2025 - “The total capitalization of the crypto market is on the verge of a foul.”
Then, despite the market depression and a lot of negative news, the total capitalization still managed to stay above the blue trend line.
📊 Cryptocurrency market capitalization as of 22.07.25:
◆ Bitcoin - $2.36 trillion
◆ Ethereum - $442 million
◆ Ripple - $206 billion
◆ SOL and BNB - $110 billion each
◆ USDT and USDC - $162 billion and $65 billion, respectively.
In total, this is $3.45 trillion out of $3.89 trillion of the total crypto market capitalization.
♎️ Too much capital is concentrated in the top 7 projects; we need a process of capital flow and the launch of exponential growth. Especially since all of the above fractals “suggest” that the time has come and anything is possible.
🔃 The total capitalization of the crypto market must continue to remain above the blue trend line, i.e., it cannot be adjusted by more than -13-16% to $3.25-3.35 trillion.
Roughly speaking, the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC cannot be adjusted by more than -10% due to its high dominance at the moment. (Such an adjustment of the #BTCUSDT price fits into the scenario we published a few days ago.)
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BITCOIN Isn't even overbought yet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been rising strongly within a structured Channel Up pattern but even this consistent and steady uptrend since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been enough to touch the Pi Cycle's overbought trend-line (red).
Throughout BTC's historic Cycles, all Tops have been priced after the overbought level was breached, which currently sits around $180000 (and rising). Given that the 4-year Cycle Theory won't change, even a repeat of the 'weaker' +136.49% last rally of the previous Cycle (Jun-Nov 2021), would take us to $180k exactly but still will be below the overbought trend-line. This just shows the immense upside potential of the market even at the current stages.
So do you think we will get that kind of rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Breakout Bonanza - Ride the Wave, BroYo, check this Bitcoin chart, fam! We’re sittin’ at 107,725, and it’s lookin’ like a wild ride. That break above 127,725 is screamin’ bullish—time to ride the blue arrow up! But watch out, a drop below could send us crashin’ to 107,475 with that red arrow vibe. Stay sharp, dude!
$UNI - $10 from here?Hi guys! 👋🏻
🔔I'll be trying this setup for Uniswap
🔔 We have bounced from the strong support at $4.80, which we retested in April 25 and May 7 forming a pattern impersonating a double bottom
🔔 With the current chart pattern and levels, I'll be expecting a jump with a target on $10.
🔔 Might drop to $5.70 before another move upwards.
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.