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Platinum: Cup-and-Handle breakout, WPIC deficit;trade setup!The platinum trade appears to be the least recognized asset in the precious metals complex at this time and today's chart may have just delivered the technical confirmation that has been brewing within the markets for months now. Even though the focus from investors all year long has been on the gold and silver trades, the platinum market has been quietly developing its own structural bull thesis that takes into account the generational supply crunch, the AI demand tailwind that has not yet been priced in by many analysts, and the geopolitical factor that is now starting to unwind in favor of the South African mining industry. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, there is expected to be another annual deficit in 2026, with the total deficit over the last three years reaching 3 million ounces, while the supply crunch is forecast to continue for another year with a deficit of 297,000 ounces.Valterra Platinum, the biggest miner of primary platinum and accounting for around 38% of total platinum mined worldwide, recorded a notable rise in its interim profits this week and, in a statement that deserves much more recognition than it received, stated that it sees demand related to AI infrastructure rising notably in the next few years. Platinum is an important part of the fuel cells and hydrogen electrolysers and also plays a major role in the cooling system of dense AI data centers. This is an important source of demand that will only keep rising and comes on top of the demand for catalytic converters from automobiles that has been more resilient than initially expected from the EV transition. Positive sentiment regarding the potential agreement between US and Iran regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz has provided a specific tailwind for South African producers of platinum as reduced oil prices reduce their energy costs..
This is especially true on the daily chart;as the technical analysis here points to something more than an improving commodity; it shows something far more interesting ;a classic technical pattern developing in real-time. The cup-and-handle pattern has been developing in platinum for some time since its highs at around $2,100 in May. The left side of the cup developed through the steep decline in prices through the period of May to June as platinum corrected its highs. The base of the cup developed in the lows seen in July between $1,630 and $1,660;a classic accumulation base that held ground despite the pressures that were pushing other commodities downward at the same time. The right side of the cup is currently being developed with the ongoing recovery in prices into early August. And the handle – the shallow correction that precedes the breakout – seems to have formed in the consolidation that occurred prior to the current session’s rally of 2.32%. The EMA structure has undergone a quiet but decisive transformation.The EMA 9 and EMA 20, which have been hanging out in a falling formation above the price levels for the month of June and July, serving as resistive caps on each and every upward move, are now being retaken and are curling upwards into formation. The MA Cross of the 9 and 21 EMAs at the price levels of $2,093 and $2,016 respectively now stands as the first significant level of resistance towards getting back to the high levels of May. The RSI at 63.86 now stands comfortably above its signal line at 47.39, forming a difference of 16 points and thus signaling how much buying power is now entering this market. It is high but not overbought yet, which leaves us with enough technical space until we reach exhaustion territory. The MACD forms the most constructive part of the picture now. The MACD line at 11.8 is now crossing over the signal line at 9.8, while the histogram at −2.1 is contracting sharply towards zero. Convergence of the forming cup & handle pattern, the recycled EMA configuration, the RSI being above its signal line and with further headroom to go, the MACD in the final stages of its bullish cross on a commodity that has a 3 million ounces of accumulated structural deficit behind it is the best technical and fundamental convergence I have seen this week on any instrument.
Trade recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon: $1,780 – $1,800
Primary target : $2,016
Secondary target : $2,094
Stop loss : Daily close below $1,663
Technical scenarios
Cup-and-handle breakout confirms;measured move to $2,300 : Today’s decisive 2.32% rally on volume of 8.94K marks the formal validation of the handle breakout. Technical momentum is accelerating as the MACD histogram prepares to flip positive within the coming sessions, while the RSI charges toward the 70 level for the first time since the May peak. This price action initiates a measured move targeting the MA Cross resistance at $2,016. Derived from the cup’s depth, the projected target of $2,250 to $2,300 aligns with both Commerzbank’s year-end forecast and historical resistance zones. Should a US-Iran agreement reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting reduction in energy costs for South African producers would serve as the fundamental catalyst transforming this technical setup into a full-scale market re-rating.
Breakout retest before continuation : Following the initial impulsive surge, price may undergo a standard mean reversion toward the $1,750 to $1,780 breakout zone. This classic retest would allow the RSI to cool toward the 55 midline and the MACD histogram to consolidate before its final bullish crossover, while the rising EMA cluster acts as a structural floor. Rather than indicating a failed move, this scenario represents a low-risk secondary entry point for late participants. Crucially, the pattern remains intact as long as the handle low at $1,663 is defended on a closing basis.
Pattern failure;geopolitical reversal : A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations could trigger a renewed spike in energy overhead for South African operations, potentially reigniting the ETF outflows that pressured the metal during the Q1 2026 surplus. In this bearish alternative, the MACD fails to achieve positive territory, the RSI collapses below 50, and the EMA support cluster between $1,663 and $1,684 is breached. A daily close beneath the handle low of $1,663 would formally invalidate the cup-and-handle structure, identifying the current move as a bull trap. Until such a violation occurs, the convergence of structural deficits and technical confirmation remains the primary investment thesis.
Long
Saudi Paper (2300) : Start of a Major Bullish Reversal ?TADAWUL:2300
🚀 Rounding Bottom in Play: Is This the Start of a Major Bullish Reversal? 🇸🇦
The stock is showing a classic rounding bottom formation, a technical pattern that often signals the transition from a prolonged accumulation phase to a new bullish trend.
Price is now approaching a critical breakout level around 80, where the next major move could be decided.
🔍 Technical Outlook
The rounding bottom suggests that selling pressure has gradually weakened while buyers continue to gain control.
However, confirmation is still required.
📌 Key Breakout Level: 80
A sustained breakout and close above this level would significantly improve the bullish outlook and confirm the reversal pattern.
🚀 Bullish Scenario
If price successfully reclaims and holds above 80, the rounding bottom breakout could trigger a fresh momentum rally toward:
🎯 Target 1: 100
🎯 Target 2: 120
These levels represent the next major resistance zones where traders may consider monitoring for profit-taking or continuation signals.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario
Failure to sustain above the 80 resistance would weaken the breakout thesis.
In that case, the stock may revisit its previous breakout–retest zone around 46, an area that historically acted as a strong support and could once again attract buyers.
A successful defense of this level would keep the longer-term bullish structure alive.
📊 My View
The stock is approaching a high-conviction technical decision point.
✅ Above 80: Confirms the rounding bottom and increases the probability of a rally toward 100–120.
⚠️ Failure at 80: Could trigger a corrective move back to the 46 support zone, where the next buying opportunity may emerge.
Patience is key—let the market confirm the breakout before chasing the move.
Do you think this rounding bottom is ready to launch the next bullish leg, or will price revisit 46 before the breakout? Share your view below! 👇
⚠️ Financial Disclaimer
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Always perform your own research (DYOR) and apply proper risk management before making any investment decisions.
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Medical Packaging Company (MEPA) – Ready for a Bounce?EGX:MEPA Weekly Chart
Hello traders! Today we are looking at Medical Packaging Company (MEPA) on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) using the weekly (1W) timeframe. The chart shows a very interesting pattern shaping up that could offer a great risk-to-reward opportunity.
Here is a simple breakdown of what’s happening in plain English:
🔍 The Big Picture : Higher Highs & Higher Lows
If you look at the long-term trend lines (the solid blue line at the top and the pink line at the bottom), MEPA has been trading inside a giant, healthy upward channel.
The Support (Floor): Every time the price drops near the bottom pink line, buyers step in.
The Resistance (Ceiling): Every time it gets close to the top blue line, sellers push it back down.
Right now, we are sitting comfortably in the middle of this giant channel, meaning there is plenty of room to grow upward.
📈 The Short-Term Setup : A Classic "Cup & Handle" or Flag
Zooming into the recent price action (indicated by the dashed yellow curves), the stock looks to be forming a classic Cup and Handle pattern:
The Cup : The stock peaked at 2.02 EGP, dipped down to find a solid floor around 1.30 EGP, and then curved back up to 1.84 EGP.
The Handle : Over the last few weeks, the price has been gently drifting downward inside a tight mini-channel (the teal and blue lines). This is completely normal behavior—it's just the market taking a breather after a big rally.
Currently trading around 1.67 EGP, the stock is holding up well, and the RSI indicator sitting right around 53 shows that it is neither overbought nor oversold. It is perfectly neutral and primed for its next direction.
🎯 Trading Plan
Entry Zone: Current levels (1.65 - 1.67 EGP) look attractive as the stock attempts to find its footing and break out of the mini-downward channel.
Target 1 (Short-term): 1.84 EGP (the recent peak of the handle).
Target 2 (Medium-term): 2.00 - 2.02 EGP (testing the major previous resistance).
Target 3 (Long-term): 2.20+ EGP (aiming for the upper blue trendline).
🛡️ Risk Management (Stop Loss)
No trade is 100% guaranteed, so protection is vital!
Stop Loss : A daily/weekly close below 1.55 EGP (just underneath the current flag support) would invalidate this bullish setup.
What do you think? Will MEPA break out of the handle this week? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 
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