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DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend . US indexes to be released this week: Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow PPI m/m: Tomorrow Core CPI m/m: Thursday CPI m/m: Thursday CPI y/y: Thursday Unemployment Claims: Thursday Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys . I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced. Second Target: $98.56 Stop Loss(SL): $96.997 Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
17
Brief Analysis of US DXYDXY is trading around 97.70, while trending within a descending channel formation, and holding above 97.60 (Fib support 0.236), with resistance seen near 97.80–98.00 zone. The RSI is rising and holding near 46, showing mild recovery momentum but not yet strong enough for a breakout. However, prices have taken a support at the middle Bollinger band, which might lift the dollar a little higher. Price action suggests consolidation inside the descending channel; intraday bias stays neutral-to-bullish above 97.60. PPI data stronger than expected could lift DXY toward 98.35–98.50, while weaker data may pressure it back toward 97.30. The 10Y auction outcome will also guide direction — higher yields can support the dollar, while softer demand may weigh on it.
FXOPEN:DXY
by Nadia_farhat
EURUSD: London Session Bullish BiasOn the higher timeframe, I maintain a bullish outlook, with the BSL identified as the draw on liquidity. This serves as the main directional bias. Shifting to the 1H timeframe, price action shows that Monday’s low was purged, which often signals liquidity grab. Following this purge, the market reacted bullishly, suggesting potential accumulation of buy-side pressure. In addition, the formation of a +FVG (Fair Value Gap) adds another layer of confluence supporting the bullish scenario. This imbalance aligns with the expectation of further upward continuation. With these factors combined, I consider the 50% retracement of the previous leg as the initial target for this move. 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌 🔎 DYOR 💡Wait for the update!
Long
by VahidTradingCR
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is fluctuating within a narrow trading range against the US dollar during Wednesday's Asian session amid mixed fundamental signals. Expectations that domestic political uncertainty could give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) more reason to slow down interest rate hikes, coupled with optimistic market sentiment, are undermining the yen's position as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the overnight recovery of the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday helped the USD/JPY pair recover from its daily decline and return closer to its August low. However, yen bears seem reluctant to make aggressive bets amid a growing understanding that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course. On the contrary, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to resume its cycle of rate cuts next week, which could hinder the growth of the US dollar. In addition, diverging expectations regarding the policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed could play into the hands of the lower-yielding Japanese yen and help limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also prefer to refrain from action ahead of Wednesday's US producer price index (PPI) release. Trade recommendation: SELL 147.20, SL 147.65, TP 146.00
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
CBDCs, Cryptocurrency, & the coming Redenomination RevolutionDisclaimer: this is not financial advice - this is strictly speculation and scenario planning, and totally not drawn on privileged information from powerful people. Please consume responsibly. Let's set aside memecoins, rugpulls, and corpo coin acquisitions to focus on what actually matters: macro. I'm married to the money, so I follow macro wherever it goes. And it's going into CBDCs and cryptocurrency. You could say it started in the past 12 mos with the GENIUS bill, tariffs, BRICS' concept coins, etc but the truth is more devious than that. The macro perspective is much more than the flow of money, its the sentiment and interest of policy makers, national actors, and IGOs. In other words, groups that make money through passive taxation create macro conditions to control or create outcomes that influence how you make or spend money. They are interested in strategic payoff over cashing out. This means the way they look at crypto is different than retail and investors. As groups, you seek legitimacy for a profit payoff, they seek strategy for a power payoff. Fiat currency is not some platonic ideal willed into being by the laws of nature, it's entirely an instrument of the national interest. In other words, it exists only so long as policymakers find it strategically useful. So let's look at their strategy. For almost three years now, your world leaders and central bankers have been preparing for a reserve currency transition scenario. They've made sudden pivots to programmable currency R&D, they've been hoarding gold into CBs and taking extra steps to keep it quiet, they've been making strange comments about fantastical banking crisis scenarios, adjusting payment options for hydrocarbons (the USD is an international soft-peg), signaling the desired end of the dollar reserve (or oddly making protecting the dollar reserve part of their political platform), and building cross-border systems (BRICBridge/mBridge) to facilitate non-SWIFT or SWIFT legacy exchange/insurance/settlement capabilities. Certain essential economic entities in the West have been prepped as well but are not yet in position to disclose. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio is already identifying our monetary order as the primary vulnerability. He's not the only old rich person to notice. Buffet is done with markets by EOY. You could say that value investing is retiring. Contrary to popular opinion, this reserve currency transition will not take place as an Orwellian CBDC takeover or some BTC moon shot, but will instead be pitched as a redenomination opportunity - likely while GSIC banks are closed to customers (including ATM withdrawals and transfers and social payments or welfare services). Before I get into the why this will happen, let's briefly look at the fragility of the modern monetary system under fiat. If you think of the economic macrosystem as a living body, then you can understand, especially from recent memory, how a global infection could quickly bring just about everything to a halt. The lifeforce of the economic-being is the free-flow of USD. Powell has sufficiently proven this. In fact, you could almost argue the last 5 years have been the perfect demonstration of this gameplay loop. But you can't mistake the heart for the entire circulatory system. Liquidity is a digital dependency today. If the power goes out, there is no liquidity. If Window's crashes, there is no liquidity. If Crowdstrike gets hacked, liquidity is grounded (and air travel canceled). Liquidity is a luxury. It has been a luxury for all of human history. Only in times of conventional peace and American-led globalization have people begun to delude themselves otherwise. It will not work they way most think in tough times. Especially in our just-in-time widget meets server-based-bookkeeping era. The boardgame of money has never been flatter or more fragile. In an age of infinite KYC and a Bigger Brother, a major ATM corralito will not look like your Great-Grandfather's breadlines. Accounts will be electronically frozen (thus no withdrawals or personal payments) and social payments will be halted for several days or even up to several weeks (thus no welfare). Due to incredible complexity risk, capital controls will be applied like circuit breakers to shut everything down. This is how it will be done in major countries and how it has been done in small countries in recent years. M1 M2 M3 will be iced by natsec nitwits and placed under conservatorship. They will give you any and every excuse. Power outages, Russians, 4chan hackers, Iran, North Korea, Powell, Biden, a virus, weather, a disaster, Chyna, anything. They might even blame me. To be truly forward in global macro, having an understanding of financial securities is not enough. National securities are a necessary intersect. If the NYSE went down unexpectedly for a few days, it would in effect generate a "stroke" for the velocity of the USD. Only one link in the financial accounting chain needs to be halted to warrant shutting down the entire electronic transaction system. There is no fractal redundancy, so to speak - everything is connected and dependent on that largely centralized and live bookkeeping data feed, otherwise the whole body gets hospitalized. This is the great weakness of centralized finance and merchant services and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir here. Only M0, select banking accounts (some community/credit & a chosen GSIC or two - IE, not Deutsch Bank), and alternative banking through cryptocurrency, will operate in that short window until your country's cartel sets a withdrawal rationing figure and initiates redemption options for the redenomination process. This process would likely involve the favorite GSIC (in the US) JP Morgan & the Post Office - giving national coverage to all area codes. You would convert your fiat, likely in cash and at a flat rate exchange that would be difficult for the layman to valuate, and receive the new notes. It could take several days to over a week before the rationing window is brought online. And even longer for the redemption system to be in place to convert federal notes to treasury notes (TL: CBDCs). These treasury notes will be backed by national assets - varying by nation, but always playing to their strengths. In the US, this means energy commodities, PMs, and the strategic crypto reserve and associated coins that service cross-border activity. The latter is the big money play, and has specifically been legalized through GENIUS to facilitate the merchant/business level transition when that occurs (the business-level redemption process will be aided by current crypto capability - which we will get in the DD section). I don't know if this board cares about PMs, but as a general standard, most nations that go through redenomination (a figure in the 100s) will opt to double or triple PM reserves (current standard is 20%), and will be interested in cross-border cryptocurrency (mBridge and/or crypto for BRICs, most of the G88, and potentially Eurozone). The reserve currency system under the US will come to an end at this point without any legal moves necessary to close the Federal Reserve. Initially, this will seem like a huge problem for the US alone. In reality, the opposite will be true. If you're a shoemaker in that pitiful collection of tourist destinations we call the EU, this is especially for you - because the fight over a national versus a continental currency solution could paralyze you all further. To wit, for the US and the world: it will likely mean the end of the housing market as a game of musical chairs, which will be the end of the global monetary system under its current paradigm for all major nations. Now I'm not trying to create fear and panic, even though that's the main thing this website does. No one will starve or get sent to the streets during a cash crash in a developed country in the contemporary era. The situation will start as a misunderstood market event. But there will be a Bretton-Woods tier recalibration at a national (likely international) level to follow shortly after. The "forum building" stage of this event has already begun. Tariffs are revealed to be part of broad but messy geopolitical strategy, the escalation of which will engage the monetary system itself (goods>ports>share listings>national bonds). You will see that sequence begin to play out in the months to come, especially after the Rio Reset dud and the Swiss paper metal tariff. Trump's "deals" with certain countries keep getting delayed or reneged. He will continue his holding pattern on this matter, switching between punitive and TACO to extend the tariff negotiation horizons. 1.Global Blocks The CCP are positioning to replace their dependency on the US-led Rules Based Order. When foreign policy suits and grey moustaches say 'RBO X' or 'US superpower Y', they mean reserve currency and maritime system dominance. It all comes down to coins and boats, as it always has. For our purposes, only the former is of interest (but buy all your high end electronics soon, because further tariff escalation will draw in shipping and port strategies - even if we freed up Panama beforehand). This isn't the right board for the investor note from hell, but all indications are a go for a reserve currency challenger framework to be officially announced Q4 or H1 of 2026. Most ongoing projects intend to connect commodities to currencies. This is necessary to build an alternative SDR. Certain nations and entities in the ME will be likely facilitators and front men for this framework (particularly to ease or lobby the G88). This is battlelines over bucks. Your favorite loose lips sink ships guy already came out rambling about it when he posted out of the blue about BRICs challenging the USD. I hope you all understand by now that when it wasn't a topic on Fox and Friends, then it's because he repeats what he is told in private. When China introduces a settlement CBDC (with Russian, various Eurasians + some MENA, and potentially Brazilian support), their international accounting will require reserves to be interchangeable with other CBDCs. These reserves will be similar to the Special Drawing Rights, but include commodities (particularly those favorable to the majority of partners; aka what they produce or already hold). This means more gold and possibly silver, to start (imagine going from 20% standard gold reserve holdings to 40/60 + 10 in silver). Later platinum, lithium, uranium, and other frontier tech minerals which will be increasingly valuable and likely included. Regardless, this transition will push Chinese investors (retail and institution) out of UST (even if the tariff threat has ended). It's not a reserve for them any more, it may even be illegal to hold UST over a certain amount. That could happen overnight. The inevitability of this sequence shouldn't be underestimated. Many of the big holders of US bonds, aka those with a stake in the ticker we call USD, are not friendly at best. Others are always looking for ways to hedge their risk. This is not the free-market as you understand it. It's being Eli Lilly but your biggest stakeholder is RFK Jr. You know that's not gonna last, right? For Europe, the reactive risk is closely related to disaster or conflict risk. Tariffs might be enough too. I'm leaning towards Germany or the UK accelerating the contagion for the broader continent. German manufacturing and energy are critically vulnerable. German PMI has been in effective contraction for 27 of the last 30 some months, and last year saw a record-breaking number of bankruptcies in the country. Both UK or Germany would handle an economic downturn poorly due to rising populist movements jumping on alternatives ( = national bond credit risk = currency vulnerability). The possibility of a second Brexit event following a commanding populist return is not priced in. Likewise, another pandemic or an expansion of Russia's war would lead to a tap out of EU economic unity. Annoyingly, the French and Germans are unlikely to search for an economic relief package of a conventional nature or one that is associated with American interests. In other words, they will be working with ME and Asia if the EU does not guarantee European continental harmony on a new Bretton-Woods framework (which I don't think they will). Japan also falls into the reactive risk category. The question is the cause package. They have no cushion and all it takes is a little shove. Yes they has a high savings rate, but purchasing power and their import dependencies (high-pop island country) negates any security they think that will provide. It's unlikely 3rd world exporters will keep the basic necessities flowing (think in terms of virtual water exports) for the next GFC or summer famine/disaster. 3rd world imports and access to cheap food underpins much of the shadow economy for Asia (see local news over rice cost) - so consumption would crash along with rising unemployment (uncaptured but real) - and the BOJ has no room to stop unemployment without sacrificing their national corporate champions (RIP Buffett) (and thus more unemployment in their zero-entrepreneurial environment). All of this is a pretzeled way of saying that conventional economic shocks could trigger the cash crash, or vice versa. Unconventional risk - like MENA cyberwar risks (who knows what blowback we might face after Iran), or even geophysical concerns like another "1000 year event" (happening every month now) but this time in a major financial area like Tokyo or SF (do you buy or sell disaster bonds in that scenario?). Suffice to say, the unconventional supporting fuel will be there. No one ever signals the big deflationary event to the greater public. But rest assured my fellow stallions, the leading signal flares for the USD are the health of the CNY, JPY & EUR. The rest is just conversation. As mentioned, the ensuing crash will be salvageable at a policy level, and thus not an inevitable depression, but only after the Bretton-Woods process comes to surface and settles, which could take most of 2026/27. This will be your golden crypto opportunity. 2.Opportunity DD Unlike the last global financial crisis, cryptocurrencies and blockchain tech are now an available solution for short term cash access and long term platform use. They are already a wedge in the US economy. People will vote with their wallets to protect their purchasing power by moving into liquidity (cryptocurrencies). Thus the demand for respective nations/regions to produce their own national digital currency to offset will rise. This isn't to say that physical coins (especially silver) won't be in a state of colossal demand (silver at 180 by 2029). But because most consumer and business transactions, debts, liabilities, taxes, etc still happen by digital bookkeeping, then cryptocurrencies (stablecoins in particular) will take priority until a national/international alternative is released. Which will come very quickly - likely by late summer of 2026. Crypto will remain bid as a trust arbitrage trade afterwards. I am providing this ahead of time, because a gradual buy in is the safest and most reasonable way to leave a mark on the market. TO OWN (in the interests of crypto): 1.PMs - physical ideally or by exposure to miners and mining ETFs. I have an 8,000$ price target for gold by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). I have 180$ price target for silver by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). Platinum = higher. I could go on and on about PMs. Decades ago I had a simple question: do prime mines sell gold and aggregates to government customers without reporting it? To answer that question, I am happy to report that I am still alive today. If you don't believe in internet magic money or virtual math money is too complicated, this asset is your first stop. It's a Golden Age. Take the hint. See KGC, GLD, GOLD & GDX. 2.Commodities - Lithium. Copper. Aggregates. Historically a great way to make money if you like buying Russian billionaires their yachts, creating nightmare company towns in central Africa, or funding "mining" companies that are fronts for the military industrial complex (MLM & MP = strong buy). 3.JVs - sophisticated only (which is a legal definition, not an aspiration). Not RE though (even utility related). All those watch-collecting power plant andy's on CNBC will make some money, but not as much as they think. 4.C-Word - WSB has the F-Word, Trump has the N-Word, and we have the C-Word. Again I'm preaching to the choir here, but it needs to be said anyway. As mentioned in the next section, there will be a valuation wild west period in which the shelf-stable stablecoins, other coins, and blockchain platforms will be used by developing countries and rich countries alike to fill in interoperability gaps and as a natural solution based on cost, availability, and immediacy for retail and small business needs. Only the most totalitarian countries, see Europe and China, will gatekeep over this. I strongly suggest buying and holding any digital currency currently settling it's legal hearings in the Southern District of New York. Or any digital coin holding company recently sued by the SEC (the Big Long will be the movie this time). And any that are based in the US via a foundation or corporation (IE, not BTC, which is owned and created by a British national), or start with letter X. Because {X} marks the spot, that's the DD. It is not a coincidence or accident the very first crypto Trump mentioned for the national crypto reserve was XRP - a coin he likely had never even heard off until hours before making that tweet. There was no BTC or ETH mentioned until spaces like this hurt themselves in confusion. Why? Because BTC was created by a British national who also owns a commanding share. ETH does not have the business or banking relationships or the payment efficiency edge - and again, founder residency (Russian/Canadian) and controlling organization (Swiss) are foreign. The XRP Ledger is strategically useful and the leading contender for cross-border activity. Cardano is of interest (and in relationship) to banks and governments around the world for tokenizing assets under the redenomination era. Virtually every traditional financial asset will be tokenized for legal, tax, and accounting purposes. That includes home and car ownership. Solana is a further potential where speed and cost matter most. Finally, though unmentioned by the tweet, XLM already has a CBDC use-case track record and should be considered as well. What else do XRP, ADA, SOL, and XLM have in common? American founders, with USA-based organizations. This isn't about jingoism, this is about strategy. You need to leave the history, anonymity, and grassroots community aspect behind for now. I agree that those attributes made crypto special in earlier eras, but it doesn't mean it will make you money in the redenomination era. It does not matter if your favorite Goonercoin has a better white paper or more airdrops. What matters is which coins are all-in on their chosen nations, and their efforts to generate relationships with banks, businesses, and governments associated with that respective nation. That is all that matters. You can rinse and repeat with your own countries, but I would focus on these aforementioned first, and then exchange to your local equivalent later. TO NOT OWN: 1.RE - will take the world's biggest beating when the EUR, USD, CNH, and JPY lose 30-40% of their value. The Reserve Recession event will be particularly painful for the elderly (pension+property) - thus adding to the pressure for CBDC solutions as a retirement welfare solution. In sum, the 30 year lending architecture will no longer exist. Many pensions will convert to digital currency systems. I wonder if that 401(k) inclusion recently has anything to do with this? 2.Sectors: all sectors except healthcare and industrials. Be wary of consumer staples and utilities, especially if you want to derisk your poorfolio from geopolitics. 3.Cash Accounts: don't be that guy who keeps 25k in his savings account. If you don't have a credit card, that's fine, but for everyone else, that money needs to be in physical assets, or intelligently invested. Remember, you aren't trading market volatility, you're hedging against monetary-systemic risk. 4.Other Currencies tied to the old monetary system - especially NIRPers. You could long the AUD/JPY, for instance, but don't own either via futures or ETFs (IE: FXE, FXY, etc - not even as a short). 5.Inflated Assets: in general, anything boosted by cost of money engineering (the modern monetary system function) will deflate. Lots of discretionary goods, luxury, travel, etc (Veblen goods). Investor Note: Do not expect cash to disappear. Those that engage in these cash crash predictions tend to be conspiratorial or hold prepper-mindsets. Those fear biases rarely align with reality. Besides a short ATM shock, cash will exist as usual during and alongside any monetary system transition, it will simply be a losing hedge. Ease of use redemption options at post offices and big banks will not be the only incentive for most people. Businesses and merchants will lead the way. As of this July, stablecoins are effectively legal in the US, when backed by the amorphously defined US Dollar (who's definition could change overnight with the right EO). This was a key green light to industry, giving them the option to navigate outside the conventional monetary architecture if need be - effectively defanging many potential capital controls for businesses. During the transition, businesses will quickly opt for the decentralized and reliable digital alternatives due to accountability, transparency, and availability - many options already exist to serve enterprises (unlike 07-08 monetary challenge), so this "free market" movement won't be entirely retail or consumer led. As mentioned before, don't be surprised if there is a prepared and proactive solution from the GSICs this time (unlike 08, which was reactive). 3.Outsider Information, Bessent, and the Golden Age: To summarize, crypto on the 'TO OWN' list will platform and support the CBDCs to come. Those free-market coins will present massive investment opportunities for several years to come. Eventually, you can and many of you will likely have to convert them to the digital winners of tomorrow, which will all be CBDCs. And yes, the US will eventually have a state-backed digital currency under the treasury via the redenomination process. It won't be called a CBDC because it won't be backed by a central bank, but a consortium of banks under the US Treasury, who's reserves will be required (gold) at far higher ratios than many CBs (2-3x current), but still held at the US Treasury. Will it be a golden dollar to serve the so-called Golden Age? Before he became president, Trump had a long record of statements and publicized deals that supported gold as an investment, in settlement, and as a part of a monetary system. If investors studied his ramblings the same way they study Powell's statements, they would see this. Either way, there will be an American CBDC at minimum, even if it's wrapped in golden foil and comes with QR codes on red hats. The Secretary of Fake Teeth knows this, and he and his foreign country comparables have planned for it. With all due respect to him, he was part of an all-star team of FX traders, the best of the best. They understand what makes or breaks nations from a currency standpoint and they have a track record of macro mania to prove it. He was the analytics mastermind behind Black Wednesday (NOT Druckenmiller or Soros). He's literally the currency guy (though gold was almost always his biggest position), and now in command of the top currency and the entire mirage of the modern monetary infrastructure as soon as Powell is out. He's the one who pitched the idea of a shadow Fed Chair. I don't know if he'll get that, but I do know he will get the next best thing: being remembered as the trader that successfully margin called the Federal Reserve. That's why he was chosen, he's going to oversee the biggest currency revolution in modern history. Simply put, over 88% of global GDP will be functional within a CBDC currency architecture according to the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker, BIS industry research, and my own review - likely by the Q2 2026. That's a lot of imminent coverage for a reserve currency system replacement that wouldn't be needed for 20-40 years, according to modern economists (TL: wagies). Is it possible the people who facilitate cross-border cash flows in the billions know something consumers don't about the near-future status of our dollar reserve system? Or a matter of curiosity that a tracker like this is hosted on the preeminent US/EU think tank? Instead of, for instance, ronpaulgold.com-? The transition between the known reserve and liquidity system (USD dominance) to the upcoming digital cash systems of many qualities and styles (programmable currency playground) will constitute the largest global valuation crisis window ever. Even if, at first, only the M3 or M2 is replaced or two-tracked (in the USA). Even if they use some kind of national AI to help balance the exchange markets and oversee a new lending and credit model (spoiler: that's coming). Maybe it will be great in your country, maybe not. Ultimately, it's not a depression or a problem, not if you're prepared for it. That's my recommendation - to be prepared for an unexpected currency swap on a national or international scale unlike anything crapitalism has ever seen before. Upside to any downside: you make enough money and its hard to be depressed. Yes, there will be inflation, and everything will appear to fall (rise for room temp IQs) as the fiat cost of money paradigm goes offline and confusion around the redemption under redenomination structure is common for general consumers. But in purchasing power, certain commodities and cryptos will crab market instead of play dead for great vol plays, and in some cases, represent the last great financial investment opportunities. They are on the functionality shelf that some solution-makers will draw from, so rumor over their potential incorporation will drive tremendous spikes that will mint more millionaires from the lower classes than any other time in history. Some of you reading this will be in that cohort, I guarantee it. There is much more to be said about CBDCs, credit systems & lending, taxation changes, debt forgiveness, UBI/prebates, SWFs, and such - as all will fold into a new paradigm under programmable currency. It warrants another giant reddit thread that few will read, but you should have the right to know what neo-feudalists are planning with your money systems. From the Vineyard to the Hamptons to Jupiter Island, the dumb rich has become the dumb majority. Many of them will find out just how dumb the hard way. Wouldn't it be nice to know ahead of time? To not be caught off guard for once? The cypherpunks designed crypto for a scenario like this. It's the failsafe for when fiat inevitably fails. You may very well be able to hold most of your liquid wealth in cryptocurrencies over CBDCs. Maybe it depends on the year of adoption, or maybe your countries policies. But doing nothing is the only bad option, and its the choice most will make. Why take the flat risk of a programmable purgatory of software patches, invasive KYC, geofenced value, and conditionalized capital controls? Some of these CBDC solutions will not be sound, depending on your country. It's entirely possible they all lean authoritarian in implementation or inefficient and deflationary in practice. Don't comply without question. Thinking is still free. I'll give the same advice I'd give anyone in any era in any place on Earth: sound money = sound mind. I started retail trading before most of you were born, back when Metatrader was an advanced piece of software and worked with an IP from the isle of Dominica. I understand the appeal. Doing your own research, "working" your own hours, drawing an income from anywhere in the world. Of only being responsible for your own wins or your own loses. You had the choice between life as a broke serf or a broke merchant, and you chose the latter. Historically speaking, some of you made a smart bet. Lifelong wagies will never know what a privilege this has been. Win or lose, you took your own risks - you set fear aside to try your hand at making a fortune. There's a big trillion dollar bank account floating around out there and you only need to press the right buttons to withdraw as much as you like. That's the trading market. How cool is that? It's the pirate's life and I sincerely hope it continues. I don't want to log on to this board 10 months from now and see one big cleanup on aisle 9. That's why I'm here to do the needful for free. Thank you for reading my ZH parody. See you on the margins.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CountofCoins
USD Index Technical Outlook – Key Buy & Sell LevelsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading inside a clear downward channel, showing a bearish market structure. Price is hovering near 98.23, just below the key resistance zone between 98.5 – 99.2, where Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, and 0.618) also align, making it a strong supply area. As long as price remains below this zone, the bias stays bearish, with potential downside targets at 97.5 and then 96.5, in line with the channel support and Fibonacci extensions. However, if buyers manage to push above 99.2, it would signal a possible trend reversal and shift the outlook towards bullish continuation. Overall, the structure suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to face rejection near resistance and continue lower in the short term. 🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup) - 98.50 – 99.20 is a strong resistance area where price aligns with the Fibonacci retracement (0.382 – 0.618) and the upper channel trendline. - Sell Trigger: If price shows rejection (bearish candles, wicks, or reversal patterns) within this zone. 🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup) - 97.50 – 96.50 area is the channel support and also near Fibonacci extension levels. - Buy Trigger: Look for bullish confirmation (bounce, bullish engulfing, or rejection wicks). Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYShort
by SibiSh
Is the DXY Poised for a Breakout?Analyzing the Bullish PotentialThe DXY (US Dollar Index) appears to be on the verge of a significant upward rally. Last week, I shared my analysis highlighting a potential trigger point for a long entry, which the price subsequently surpassed, confirming the setup. According to the latest COT reports, commercial traders have reached their highest net positions of 2023. Historically, whenever commercials hit new highs, it often signals the beginning of a bullish trend in the DXY. Additionally, we observe that many currencies measured against the dollar have weakened recently, supporting my thesis of a continued upward move for the DXY. Seasonal patterns also point toward a potential bullish phase. Is this the moment for the DXY to initiate a strong bullish trend? Only time will tell, but the technical and fundamental signals are aligning in favor of a possible rally. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Dollar index in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 04, 2025 GBPUSDOn Thursday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair fell to around 1.3430. The pound sterling (GBP) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid concerns about the UK's financial situation. UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday that she would present the annual budget on November 26, insisting that the economy is not “broken” and that she would control spending to help reduce inflation and borrowing costs. However, concerns about the UK's ability to control its finances are weighing on sentiment and dragging the pound down against the US dollar. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of job openings on the last working day of July was 7.181 million. This figure followed 7.357 million (revised from 7.437 million) job openings recorded in June and was below the market consensus of 7.4 million. The weakening of the UK labor market, announced on Wednesday, reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates this month. This, in turn, could undermine the dollar and help limit losses for the major currency pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3400, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Futures – Momentum Strong but Eyes on Jobs DataPrice pushed extremely bullish yesterday, with little chance for pullbacks. I admittedly got stopped out a few times from reacting too quickly to impulses, so today I’m focused on patience and waiting for confirmation. Currently, Gold is holding above recent levels after breaking higher. There’s still a clean 4H/8H FVG below that price could revisit, but as long as momentum stays intact, buyers remain in control. ⚠️ Important: Tomorrow brings ADP Non-Farm Employment, Jobless Claims, and ISM Services PMI — all of which could drive volatility. Friday is the heavyweight NFP release. Until then, we may see liquidity hunts or choppy price action. Scenarios I’m watching: ✅ Bullish continuation toward new highs if support holds. 🔄 Deeper pullback into the FVG if momentum stalls. Staying patient, letting the market show its hand, and keeping risk tight ahead of news.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Gold Futures (MGC / GC) — Daily Outlook (Wed)Price just broke the previous ATH (3,578) and is in new price discovery. Momentum is bullish, but there are key imbalances below that could attract price before continuation. 🔍 Key Levels ATH (3,578) → breakout level to watch 1H FVG (3,565–3,575) → short-term support zone 4H + 8H FVG stack (3,515–3,535) → deeper liquidity target Immediate resistance → 3,610–3,620 zone ⚖️ Scenarios for Wednesday 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation (primary bias) If ATH (3,578) holds → look for continuation into 3,610–3,620+ 1H FVG may provide a bounce if tested 2️⃣ Deeper Pullback (secondary bias) Failure to hold ATH → watch for a drop into 3,515–3,535 (4H/8H FVGs) before bullish continuation ✅ Trade Plan Idea Continuation play: Buy on ATH retest / 1H FVG bounce (3,575 zone) → target 3,610–3,620+ Deeper retrace play: If ATH breaks clean → wait for price inside 3,515–3,535 zone → look for reversal confirmation long 📌 Notes Momentum = bullish until proven otherwise Don’t chase → wait for either ATH defense or clean retrace into imbalances Manage risk → this is price discovery, expect volatility 📊 What’s your bias here? Do you see price holding ATH for continuation, or do you think we dip first into the deeper FVGs?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
DXY Forecast: H&S Continuation Pattern?The DXY rebound between July and August has shaped a head and shoulders pattern. The chart is now testing the downside breakout, with the daily RSI turning bearish and slipping below the 50 level. A clean break below the 97.50 support could extend losses toward 97.20 and 96.50, with the full head and shoulders pattern pointing to a potential move down toward the 95.00–94.50 zone. On the upside, a rebound above the 98.00 level would suggest some bullish recovery. However, a sustained move above 100.20 is needed to confidently shift the outlook toward a longer-term bullish reversal. Key Events This Week • ISM PMIs: to clarify US economic activity (Tuesday–Thursday) • US NFPs and their impact on rate cut expectations and DXY price action (Friday) • Effects of US trade and legal developments, EU political shifts, and Middle East escalations on risk sentiment - Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 01, 2025 GBPUSDThe Bank of England's (BoE) cautious rate cut last month marks a significant divergence from the growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs at least twice before the end of this year. This, in turn, has been a key factor in the relative strength of the British pound (GBP) against the US dollar and confirms the short-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair. However, the moderate rise in the US dollar (USD) could be an obstacle for the currency pair. Traders are also showing indecision and prefer to wait for important US macroeconomic data, which will be released at the beginning of the new week, to confirm the next stage of the directional movement. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for the continuation of purchases before making new bets on the rise of the GBP/USD pair and positioning for further strengthening. Market participants are now awaiting the release of the final UK manufacturing PMI to gain some momentum amid low liquidity due to the US Labor Day holiday. Meanwhile, attention will remain focused on the closely watched US employment data to be released on Friday. The popular non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing the US dollar's price dynamics and the movement of the GBP/USD pair. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3555, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3665
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
FTSE100 surges to records despite CPI surprise but can it last?The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures. The market remains sensitive to global cues, with attention turning to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could reinforce risk aversion and further boost the FTSE’s appeal as a relative safe haven, while a dovish Fed may see flows return to US equities, posing a conditional risk to the FTSE’s rally. From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100’s recent breakout places immediate focus on the 9,367–9,400 resistance zone, which marks the upper boundary of the latest upward channel. A sustained daily close above 9,400 could open the door to further upside, targeting the psychological 9,500 level next. On the downside, initial support is seen at 9,200, with a break below there potentially exposing the 9,050–9,000 area for a deeper pullback. Traders should watch for confirmation of direction at these levels, as volatility may increase around key macro events. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:UK100Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
Title: USDX 4H — expectations vs realityThe dollar index once again finds itself in a position where heroic posture doesn’t match reality. Price is capped at 97.85 right at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and every move higher quickly fades like a spark in the rain. If the breakout fails the road towards 97.24 and 96.90 seems far more realistic since the 0.618 retracement and demand zone are located there. Moving averages are pressing from above, volumes don’t support the bulls and technically the setup favors weakness rather than strength. Watching USD behavior every dip in gold silver euro and pound becomes a clear swing trading buy opportunity. Fundamentally the dollar is also under pressure as markets expect a dovish Fed, Treasury yields stay weak and risk appetite drives capital into other assets. In the end the greenback looks more like a tired runner than a sprinter ready to race.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by InvestWorld_777
GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - August 2025 Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Intraday and Swing Trading Current Price: 1.35033 USD (as of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) 24H Change: -0.08% Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias with Cautious Optimism --- Executive Summary The GBPUSD pair is currently trading above the critical 1.3500 psychological level, showing resilience after the Bank of England's recent rate cut to 4% in August 2025. The GBP/USD pair gradually crawled back above the 1.3500 barrier on the renewed upside, indicating potential for continued upward momentum despite monetary policy headwinds. Key Technical Levels: Immediate Support: 1.3450 - 1.3485 Key Resistance: 1.3585 - 1.3620 Psychological Level: 1.3500 (currently above) --- Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Recent Central Bank Actions At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted by a majority of 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. This dovish move has created mixed signals for GBP, with the median profile in the August MaPS implied a cumulative 50 basis point reduction in Bank Rate by the end of this year. Interest Rate Differential Impact UK Base Rate: 4.00% (recently cut from 4.25%) Fed Funds Rate: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged) Rate Differential: Narrowing in favor of USD --- Multi-Methodology Technical Analysis 1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis Current Formation: Doji reversal patterns observed on 4H timeframe Pattern: Indecision candles near 1.3500 support Implication: Potential for directional breakout Confirmation Required: Volume increase on next significant move 2. Elliott Wave Theory Analysis Wave Structure: Currently in Wave 4 corrective phase Primary Trend: Bullish impulse from 1.2300 lows Current Position: Corrective Wave 4 consolidation Target Wave 5: Projected range 1.3650-1.3750 Invalidation Level: Break below 1.3380 3. Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Pattern: Bullish Gartley formation completing D Point: Target zone 1.3480-1.3520 Fibonacci Levels: 0.786 retracement at 1.3485 Bullish Reversal Zone: 1.3450-1.3500 Target Extensions: 1.3585 (1.27), 1.3650 (1.618) 4. Wyckoff Market Cycle Analysis Current Phase: Accumulation Phase C (Spring Test) Background: Institutional accumulation near support Volume Profile: Decreasing on declines, increasing on rallies Smart Money: Likely accumulating between 1.3450-1.3520 Next Phase: Markup anticipated above 1.3585 5. W.D. Gann Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: Current Position: 1.35033 sits at 144° (important Gann angle) Support Levels: 1.3472 (135°), 1.3434 (128°) Resistance Levels: 1.3542 (152°), 1.3580 (160°) Time Cycles: September 15-20 represents significant time window Price Squaring: Next major target 1.3689 (169°) Gann Angles from August Low: - 1x1 Angle: 1.3520 (primary support) - 2x1 Angle: 1.3485 (secondary support) - 1x2 Angle: 1.3585 (resistance) 6. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Status: Price above Kumo on daily chart Tenkan-Sen (9): 1.3515 (bullish above) Kijun-Sen (26): 1.3498 (consolidating) Senkou Span A: 1.3505 (cloud support) Senkou Span B: 1.3480 (strong support) Chikou Span: Above price action (bullish confirmation) Signal: Bullish bias maintained while above cloud --- Technical Indicators Analysis Momentum Indicators RSI (14-period): - 4H: 52.3 (neutral, room to rise) - Daily: 48.7 (approaching oversold relief) - Weekly: 55.2 (bullish momentum intact) MACD Analysis: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GBPUSD turned positive on August 27, 2025, suggesting renewed bullish momentum with the stock continued to rise in of 116 cases over the following month based on historical patterns. Volatility & Price Action Bollinger Bands (20, 2): - Current Position: Middle band test (1.3515) - Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment) - Squeeze Setup: Potential expansion coming - Direction Bias: Bullish above middle band VWAP Analysis: - Daily VWAP: 1.3520 (key pivotal level) - Weekly VWAP: 1.3485 (major support) - Volume Profile: High volume node at 1.3500-1.3520 Moving Average Configuration Short-term (Intraday): - EMA 21: 1.3518 (immediate resistance) - SMA 50: 1.3505 (support) - WMA 13: 1.3525 (dynamic resistance) Medium-term (Swing): - EMA 50: 1.3490 (key support) - SMA 100: 1.3465 (major support) - EMA 200: 1.3420 (trend support) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H) # Bullish Scenario (Primary - 65% Probability) Entry Strategy: Long Entry 1: 1.3485-1.3500 (Harmonic D-point) Long Entry 2: 1.3520-1.3530 (breakout above VWAP) Stop Loss: 1.3465 (below Wyckoff support) Take Profit 1: 1.3585 (Gann resistance) Take Profit 2: 1.3620 (Harmonic target) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.8 (Excellent) Timeframe Specific Targets: 5M/15M: Quick scalps 1.3500 → 1.3530 30M/1H: Swing to 1.3585 4H: Extended move to 1.3620 # Bearish Scenario (Secondary - 35% Probability) Entry Strategy: Short Entry: 1.3465 break (Ichimoku cloud breach) Stop Loss: 1.3510 (above VWAP) Take Profit 1: 1.3420 (EMA 200) Take Profit 2: 1.3380 (Elliott Wave invalidation) Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly) # Primary Bullish Wave Count Long-term Setup (1-3 weeks): Entry Zone: 1.3480-1.3520 (current accumulation) Stop Loss: 1.3420 (trend support) Target 1: 1.3650 (Elliott Wave 5 minimum) Target 2: 1.3750 (Wave 5 extension) Target 3: 1.3850 (major resistance confluence) Monthly Outlook: - September: Consolidation 1.3450-1.3650 - October: Breakout attempt above 1.3650 - November: Potential test of 1.3750-1.3850 --- Risk Management & Trade Management Position Sizing Guidelines Intraday: Maximum 2% risk per trade Swing: Maximum 3% risk per position Portfolio Allocation: 5-8% maximum GBPUSD exposure Dynamic Stop Loss Strategy 1. Initial Stop: Below key support levels 2. Breakeven: Move to entry after 50% target hit 3. Trailing Stop: Use ATR(14) x 2 for swing trades 4. Time Stop: Exit if no progress within 48 hours (intraday) Bull Trap / Bear Trap Analysis Potential Bull Trap Warning: - Watch for fake breakout above 1.3585 with weak volume - Confirmation needed: Volume > 20-day average - Invalidation: Immediate reversal below 1.3550 Bear Trap Opportunity: - Break below 1.3480 with quick recovery above 1.3500 - Entry on reclaim of 1.3500 with strong volume - Target: 1.3585-1.3620 --- Weekly Trading Calendar & Key Events Upcoming Market Movers (September 2-6, 2025) High Impact Events: Tuesday: UK PMI Final, GDP Monthly Wednesday: US ADP Employment Thursday: BoE Officials Speeches Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Approach: - Reduce position size 2 hours before high-impact news - Consider flat positions during NFP release - Re-enter on confirmed direction post-news --- Alternative Scenarios & Contingency Plans Scenario 1: Dovish BoE Surprise (20% Probability) Trigger: Additional rate cut signals Expected Move: 1.3500 → 1.3350 Strategy: Short on break of 1.3465, target 1.3380-1.3350 Scenario 2: USD Weakness Theme (25% Probability) Trigger: Fed dovish pivot or data weakness Expected Move: 1.3500 → 1.3750 Strategy: Aggressive long on any dip to 1.3480 Scenario 3: Risk-Off Environment (15% Probability) Trigger: Geopolitical tensions or market crash Expected Move: Sharp decline to 1.3200-1.3300 Strategy: Full hedging, await oversold bounce --- Technical Rating Summary Overall Rating: BULLISH BIAS 1-Week Outlook: BUY (Confirmed by MACD turn positive) 1-Month Outlook: BUY (Elliott Wave structure intact) Confidence Level: 7/10 Key Catalysts for Bullish Breakout: 1. Sustained break above 1.3585 with volume 2. US economic data disappointment 3. Risk-on sentiment return 4. Technical pattern completion Bearish Invalidation Levels: Short-term: 1.3465 Medium-term: 1.3420 Long-term: 1.3380 --- Conclusion & Trading Recommendations The GBPUSD pair presents a compelling bullish setup despite recent BoE dovishness. Our technical rating for GBPUSD stock is buy today with multiple technical methodologies aligning for potential upside. The convergence of Harmonic patterns, Elliott Wave projections, and Gann analysis suggests a high-probability move toward 1.3585-1.3650 over the coming weeks. Priority Actions: 1. Immediate: Monitor for entry opportunities in 1.3485-1.3520 zone 2. Short-term: Prepare for breakout above 1.3585 3. Medium-term: Position for Elliott Wave 5 completion at 1.3650-1.3750 Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement proper risk management and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
by sunya
DXY Dollar Index: Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# DXY Dollar Index: Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast Asset Class: US Dollar Index (DXY) Current Price: 97.855 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:59 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Post-correction consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum Executive Summary The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 97.855, showing signs of stabilization after a significant decline from yearly highs. Our multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple timeframes converge, presenting both intraday scalping opportunities and swing trading setups. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights. Current Market Landscape The DXY exchange rate rose to 97.8549 on August 29, 2025, up 0.04% from the previous session, indicating short-term stabilization. However, over the past month, the United States Dollar has weakened 1.96%, and is down by 3.81% over the last 12 months. This presents a complex technical picture where short-term bullish momentum may be developing within a broader corrective phase. The DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum, supported by non-commercial traders reducing their bearish bets according to recent COT data. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Theory Analysis Based on recent Elliott Wave patterns, the descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43. Wave Count Structure: Primary Wave: Currently in corrective Wave 4 of larger degree cycle Intermediate Count: Completing 5-wave decline from 2025 highs Near-term: Potential Wave 5 completion around 96.50-97.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets: Immediate Support: 96.80-97.00 (Wave equality zone) Key Resistance: 99.40-99.80 (Previous Wave ((ii)) high) Major Resistance: 101.50-102.00 (Fibonacci confluence) Harmonic Pattern Analysis Active Patterns: 1. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern forming on 4H-Daily timeframe - X to A leg: 103.50 to 96.20 - A to B retracement: 38.2% at 98.98 - B to C projection: 88.6% of AB at 97.15 - Completion zone: 96.50-96.80 (88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bearish Gartley Pattern (Completed) - Generated sell signals at 99.20-99.50 range - Currently in profit-taking phase Fibonacci Confluence Zones: Strong Support: 96.50-96.80 (Multiple harmonic convergence) Resistance Cluster: 98.80-99.20 (38.2% and 50% retracements) Major Resistance: 101.20-101.80 (61.8% golden ratio) Wyckoff Theory Assessment Current Phase: Potential Accumulation Phase (Spring Test) Distribution Phase: Completed at 2025 highs (103.50+ region) Markdown Phase: May-August 2025 decline Current Position: Testing Spring levels around 96.50-97.50 Wyckoff Signals: - Volume divergence suggests smart money accumulation - Price action showing reduced selling pressure - Potential for markup phase if 98.50 resistance breaks W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9: - Natural resistance at 98 (perfect square) - Strong support at 96 (key Gann level) - Next major target: 100 (psychological and Gann confluence) Gann Time Theory: - Current time cycle suggests reversal window: September 3-10, 2025 - Major time square due: October 2025 (90-degree angle) - Price-Time balance suggests equilibrium around 97.50 Gann Angles: - 1x1 angle from August lows: 97.20 (active support) - 2x1 resistance line: 98.60 - 1x2 support angle: 96.40 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Status: - Price below Tenkan-sen (97.95) - Short-term bearish - Kijun-sen at 98.40 acting as dynamic resistance - Cloud (Kumo) resistance: 99.20-99.80 - Future Cloud: Thinning, suggesting volatility ahead Ichimoku Signals: - TK Cross: Pending bullish crossover if price holds above 97.50 - Cloud breakout target: 99.80+ - Support levels: Kijun-sen (98.40), Tenkan-sen (97.95) Technical Indicators Analysis Relative Strength Index (RSI) Daily RSI: 42.5 (Oversold but not extreme) 4H RSI: 38.2 (Approaching oversold territory) 1H RSI: 45.8 (Neutral zone) Divergence Alert: Bullish divergence forming on 4H timeframe Bollinger Bands (BB) Current Position: Lower third of bands Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment) Squeeze Setup: Potential breakout within 3-5 trading days Direction Bias: Slight bullish based on band position Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Daily VWAP: 98.12 (resistance) Weekly VWAP: 98.85 (major resistance) Monthly VWAP: 99.45 (significant overhead supply) Moving Averages Confluence SMA 20: 98.15 (immediate resistance) EMA 50: 98.75 (intermediate resistance) SMA 200: 100.20 (major trend line) Current Status: Below all major MAs (bearish bias) Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Formations: 1. Doji Star (August 29) - Indecision at support 2. Hammer Pattern (August 30) - Potential reversal signal 3. Bullish Engulfing setup developing Pattern Implications: - Short-term reversal signals strengthening - Volume confirmation needed for validation - Risk-reward favors long positions with tight stops Market Structure & Support/Resistance Key Support Levels: 1. 97.20-97.40 - Immediate support (Gann 1x1 angle) 2. 96.80-97.00 - Major support (Harmonic completion) 3. 96.20-96.50 - Critical support (Previous reaction low) 4. 95.50-95.80 - Ultimate support (2024 major low) Key Resistance Levels: 1. 98.15-98.40 - Immediate resistance (SMA 20 + Kijun-sen) 2. 98.80-99.20 - Intermediate resistance (Fibonacci + VWAP) 3. 99.40-99.80 - Major resistance (Elliott Wave + Cloud) 4. 101.20-101.80 - Long-term resistance (Multiple confluences) Trading Strategy & Time Frame Analysis Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%) Entry Zone: 97.40-97.60 (on pullback) Stop Loss: 97.15 (below harmonic completion) Target 1: 98.15 (Daily SMA 20) Target 2: 98.60 (Gann 2x1 angle) Target 3: 99.20 (Fibonacci resistance) Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%) Entry Zone: 98.40-98.60 (on failed breakout) Stop Loss: 99.00 (above key resistance) Target 1: 97.60 (immediate support) Target 2: 96.80 (Harmonic target) Target 3: 96.20 (Major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) Primary Long Setup: Accumulation Zone: 96.50-97.50 Confirmation: Break above 98.80 with volume Swing Target 1: 100.20 (SMA 200) Swing Target 2: 102.50 (61.8% retracement) Ultimate Target: 105.00 (2025 high retest) Stop Loss: Below 96.20 Position Sizing: 2% risk per trade Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks Alternative Short Setup: Entry Condition: Failure at 99.50 resistance Confirmation: Break below 97.00 support Target 1: 95.50 (2024 low) Target 2: 93.80 (Extended projection) Stop Loss: Above 100.00 Time Horizon: 6-10 weeks Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected Range: 97.20-98.40 Strategy: Range trading, fade extremes Key Events: Watch for volume expansion Wednesday-Thursday: Potential Breakout Catalyst: Economic data releases Scenarios: Break above 98.60 (bullish) or below 97.00 (bearish) Strategy: Breakout trading with confirmation Friday: Trend Continuation Focus: Weekly close positioning Strategy: Hold winners, cut losers Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before weekend Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Rules: Intraday: Maximum 1% risk per trade Swing: Maximum 2% risk per trade Portfolio: Total DXY exposure not exceeding 5% Stop Loss Guidelines: Intraday: 25-30 pips maximum Swing: 80-120 pips based on volatility Time-based: Exit if no progress in 5 trading days Profit Taking Strategy: Scale out: 50% at first target, 30% at second, 20% runner Trailing stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved Weekend rule: Close 70% of intraday positions before Friday close Market Psychology & Sentiment Current Sentiment Indicators: COT Data: Non-commercial traders reducing bearish bets Options Flow: Put-call ratio normalizing from extreme levels Technical Sentiment: Oversold conditions with emerging reversal signals Psychological Levels: 98.00: Round number resistance (psychological barrier) 100.00: Major psychological milestone 95.00: Critical psychological support External Factors & Market Context Geopolitical Considerations: - Federal Reserve policy stance monitoring required - Global economic data impacts (ECB, BOJ decisions) - Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand Economic Calendar Watch: - NFP data (First Friday of month) - Fed speakers and policy minutes - Inflation data releases - Global PMI readings Advanced Pattern Alerts Bull Trap Warning: Setup: False break above 99.00 followed by immediate reversal Confirmation: Heavy volume on break, light volume on decline Response: Wait for 4H close below 98.20 before shorting Bear Trap Alert: Setup: False break below 96.80 with quick recovery Confirmation: Immediate buying pressure and volume surge Response: Long entry on return above 97.20 with tight stops Technology Integration Automated Alerts Setup: 1. Price Alerts: 96.80, 97.50, 98.60, 99.20 2. RSI Alerts: <30 (oversold), >70 (overbought) 3. Volume Alerts: 150% above 20-day average 4. Pattern Alerts: Harmonic completion, Elliott Wave targets Trading Platform Integration: TradingView: Custom indicator stack with all mentioned tools MT4/MT5: Expert Advisor for automated entries Risk Management: Position sizing calculators Conclusion & Forecast Summary The DXY Dollar Index stands at a critical technical juncture with multiple analytical frameworks suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion zones, harmonic pattern targets, and Wyckoff accumulation signals creates a compelling risk-reward setup for both intraday and swing traders. Primary Scenario (65% probability): Consolidation between 96.80-98.60 followed by breakout to 100.20+ levels over the next 4-6 weeks. Alternative Scenario (35% probability): Failed recovery leading to extended decline toward 95.50-94.00 zone. Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish with defensive positioning until confirmation above 98.80 resistance cluster. Key Success Factors: - Strict adherence to risk management protocols - Multiple timeframe confirmation before major position increases - Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy developments - Adaptation to changing market structure and volatility conditions --- *This analysis incorporates advanced technical methodologies including Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Analysis, Gann Theory, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, combined with traditional indicators and market structure analysis. All price targets and support/resistance levels are derived from mathematical relationships and historical price behavior patterns.* Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by sunya
DXY Possible sell on pullback!Back to back 3 weekly pin bar on DXY with series of lower high's putting pressure on the weekly support level. From the Monthly, it is a long term bear market, after the previous monthly pullback, price started to continue to drop which signals potential new impulse on the monthly. As the monthly close, the price is on the intraday support with potential for initial bounce. As weekly market is creating series of higher low, there is a possibility of 50% pullback and liquidity grab to potentially break the weekly support.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexWizard01