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Gold Sitting on the Edge – Liquidity Sweep Before the Bounce?Monday didn’t give much movement, and price is now hovering around last week’s low. I’m expecting a liquidity sweep of the current levels — likely taking out the Daily Low before moving to fill the full Weekly FVG below. Short-term bias is bearish for the Asian session, but I’ll be watching closely for a shift once that FVG is filled. If absorption shows up after the sweep, I’ll flip long for the bigger move higher into midweek. #FuturesTrading #Gold #ICT #LiquiditySweep #NOFOMO
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The reduction in its downward momentum in the demand range will provide us with a better risk-reward buying position. A move towards the supply range above the channel will be our next short trade! Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since October 10, following a sharp $125 decline. According to a Reuters survey, the average gold price in 2026 is expected to reach $4,275 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to average $50 per ounce in the same year. For 2025, the survey anticipates an average gold price of $3,400, up from $3,220 in the previous poll, while the average silver price is forecasted to rise to $38.45 from $34.52 previously. Analysts at Nomura stated that U.S.–China relations have entered a repetitive cycle of tension, escalation, and temporary détente, likely forming a “new normal” in the long term. Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist, noted that the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a predictable pattern of “strain–escalation–pause”, which may define the framework of their relationship in the foreseeable future. Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur hinted at a temporary easing of friction, with both sides reportedly considering limited concessions, such as extending tariff suspensions and resuming soybean imports from the U.S. However, deep-seated disputes remain unresolved — including export restrictions on rare earth elements, compliance with trade commitments, and broader geopolitical disagreements — all of which cloud the outlook for bilateral relations. Lu cautioned that while short-term cooperation may continue due to mutual economic dependence, long-term strategic competition between Washington and Beijing is expected to intensify. Nomura believes this recurrent cycle of conflict and reconciliation will likely become the enduring pattern of U.S.–China relations. Such a backdrop implies persistent volatility in global markets, particularly in commodities and technology sectors, which are highly sensitive to trade developments between the two nations. Investors should prepare for alternating periods of optimism and renewed tension. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada may turn into a major self-inflicted setback, as the move faces both a legal challenge before the U.S. Supreme Court and bipartisan opposition. Next week, the Supreme Court is set to hear a case focusing on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify these tariffs. Trump initially invoked an emergency declaration related to fentanyl to impose them — despite the fact that such powers are typically reserved for sanctions against U.S. adversaries. The case represents not only a test of the tariffs’ legality, but also a measure of Trump’s and MAGA’s influence over the Court. Notably, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, joined over 200 Democrats in sending a letter to the justices urging them to strike down the tariffs. The oral arguments are scheduled for November 5, and the final ruling, which could serve as a major market mover, is expected sometime next year. Currently, prediction markets estimate a 38% probability that the tariffs will be overturned. At the same time, Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time in several months, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. This shift comes amid rising political instability in Japan and France, which has diminished the appeal of non-dollar assets and strengthened capital flows toward the greenback. Strategists at the bank added that demand for downside protection against the dollar has declined, indicating that investors perceive a low risk of a sharp correction in the near term. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley warned that this uptrend might not be sustainable — if U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures, fail to show significant improvement, the dollar could again face renewed downward pressure, and rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve could rise. Finally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent confirmed that five candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair: Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder. Bassent stated that one more round of interviews will take place, and he plans to submit the final shortlist to President Trump after Thanksgiving, with a final decision expected before year-end.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Dollar In Range-And It May Not Be Broken Soon...Stocks are pushing nicely to the upside after some optimism that a deal could be reached between the US and China regarding tariffs, as reported this weekend by Trump himself. He’s clearly driving the market into a risk-on mode. However, it’s interesting to see that the dollar is still going nowhere; the only FX market showing a more decisive move is the Aussie, which is naturally benefiting from this story. Looking at the dollar index, no one knows where it wants to move but basic analysis in ranges is simple; "down from resistance, up from the support". Keep in mind we’re still missing the latest US jobs data, so the outlook for further cuts remains uncertain, and that could keep the dollar moving sideways for now. Have a nice trading week! GH
FX:USDOLLAR
by ew-forecast
General Market OutlookHello, I want to talk about markets in general before the week start. The Federal Reserve is trying to navigate with limited data. Recently, after Governor Waller used ADP data without authorization, the Fed lost access to ADP’s high-frequency employment data as well. CPI and core CPI both came in at 3%, slightly below market expectations but in line with Cleveland Fed and Bloomberg models. With inflation not overheating, there is little reason for the Fed to delay rate cuts in its remaining two meetings this year, though these cuts are likely already priced in. The real focus will be on what FED will do in 2026. This week brings meetings from the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC, while the Trump–Xi talks will take center stage. For me, the most important event will be the US–China negotiations. China holds a structural advantage: its exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, supported by rising trade with South America, Africa, the EU, and South Asia. Meanwhile, the US remains heavily dependent on China for rare earths, a situation unlikely to change soon. However, China’s top priority remains its economy, which should keep the door open for compromise and negotiations. Also, keep an eye on the shutdown situation and upcoming earnings reports. US bond yield is falling, now a battle around 4% is ongoing for 10-y yield. If it bounced from 3.85% trendline dollar might try to recover, but so far I don't see any reason for a dollar jump, rather the tight range between the trendline from 2011 and 100 resistance likely to continue. EURUSD is trying to recover with slighlty bullish trend but this trend could turn into flag formation easily if dollar index to make a move towards 100. I expect EURUSD to continue recover with strong data from EU and weaker data from US. If shutdown extends further, both stock market and dollar might turn bearish. There’s nothing new to add for USDJPY beyond the previous analysis. If the base case scenario unfolds, it will support the dollar index retesting its trendline in the coming weeks. Nasdaq is still trending high with insane amount of AI investments and better than expected earnings. High valuations, shutdown and China fears are not in the spotlight yet. As long as Nasdaq trend channel continues, no reason to back out bullishness, but careful if it break because corrections often came very hard. Crypto market is yet to recover after the massive sudden crash. Bitcoin is less effected, but still has a problem. If 114k regained, maybe signs of recovery will be more clear. But the danger is not over yet. My base case for gold to hold above 4000 and recover towards 4250. 4160 is a key resistance this week. I expect gold is getting to a long term peak, likely to hit before the year end but still has some way to go. I will write about Silver's long term cycle in a couple of days so stay tuned for that.
TVC:DXY
by orancapital
Tech & Rates: The Unstoppable Force Driving USD/JPY SkywardThe USD/JPY exchange rate has exhibited a clear upward trend, recently touching a one-week high before a slight pull-back to around 151.74. This sustained yen weakness reflects a convergence of factors across global finance, domestic Japanese policy, and international relations. Traders must analyze these multi-faceted pressures to accurately forecast future movements. Domestic Japanese Fiscal Expansion Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is preparing an aggressive economic stimulus package likely exceeding last year's $13.9$ trillion yen ($92.19$ billion). This expansionary fiscal policy aims to counter rising inflation and support household incomes. Markets anticipated this policy shift, contributing to the yen's $2.6\%$ decline this month, its biggest monthly drop since July. A combination of significant fiscal spending and a challenging relationship with the central bank typically weighs heavily on a currency. Geopolitical Instability and Safe Havens Global political risk typically favors the U.S. dollar, cementing its position as the world's primary reserve currency. The ongoing $\mathbf{U.S.}$ $\mathbf{government}$ $\mathbf{shutdown}$, now into its third week, injects domestic uncertainty. This standoff complicates the Fed’s data-driven decision-making, potentially reinforcing expectations for rate cuts, which can weaken the dollar. Despite this, the dollar index (DXY) remains resilient at $98.84$. A brief drop in gold prices recently triggered market volatility and a rebalancing of safe-haven assets, briefly allowing the yen to climb. Yet, the persistent US political gridlock maintains a background risk premium that supports the dollar as the ultimate haven. Geostrategy and Technology Competition Geostrategic competition, especially involving China, supports the USD through capital flow redirection. Diversification and resilience strategies in global supply chains lead to investment shifts toward Southeast Asia and other strategic areas, often bypassing the yen. Furthermore, the dollar benefits from the High-Tech sector's dominance. High-tech and cyber security, and the associated intellectual property (IP), including patent families, are key drivers of economic growth. A country's strength in technology, quantified by international patents, significantly impacts its currency's global competitiveness and valuation, often bolstering the dollar’s perceived "soft power" relative to the yen. (www.worldscientific.com) Conclusion and Outlook The primary drivers of the USD/JPY's ascent are the widening interest rate differential and Japan’s expansionary fiscal outlook. While a short-term correction occurred due to safe-haven rebalancing, the structural forces remain dollar-positive. The US government shutdown presents a risk, but its historical impact on the dollar has typically been modest and short-lived. Traders should expect USD/JPY to test new highs, especially if the new Japanese fiscal policy exacerbates bond market concerns.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
GBPUSD 1H Analysis: Bearish Pressure Builds After Break 📊 GBPUSD – 1 Hour Analysis (SELL) Technical Outlook: Bullish momentum is fading, and selling pressure is building after the recent break. My trade plan is on the SELL side; target level: 1.33564 📉 Fundamental Analysis: On the U.S. side, the strong dollar narrative and the Fed’s data‑driven stance continue to support USD strength. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the U.K.’s growth/inflation balance and tighter financial conditions are weighing on GBP. Together, these factors reinforce the downside bias in the pair. 🙏 Every like is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Short
by TraderTilki
42
Gold Above 4300 – Watching for FVG Fill Before Next LegPrice consolidated all of yesterday’s Asian and London sessions before breaking bullish through NY, clearing the 4300 resistance. Today, we’re holding above that breakout level and sitting just beneath the weekly high at 4398. A 4H FVG rests below price around 4345–4360 — that’s my first area of interest for a retrace and possible continuation higher. If price dips to fill that gap and shows strength, I’ll look for a long toward 4398–4420. Otherwise, I’ll wait for a clear reclaim above the weekly high before confirming continuation. Staying patient tonight — the easy part is waiting for the market to tell me what it wants to do. #FuturesTrading #Gold #ICT #PriceAction #NOFOMO
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
3
Weekly Outlook — Gold Futures (MGCZ2025)Price is sitting between key levels after last week’s explosive move. I’m watching 4,300 as immediate resistance — if bulls can’t hold above this level, I expect a sweep toward 4,200–4,150 (H4 + Daily FVGs) before continuation. Monday might just be a setup day, building liquidity for a Tuesday/Wednesday move. Key Levels: 🟦 4,392 – Previous Weekly High 🟨 4,300 – Near-term resistance 🟧 4,200 – Daily Low / Support zone 🟩 4,150 – H4 FVG top Let’s see how Monday sets the tone for the week. #Gold #Futures #TradingPlan #ICT #PriceAction
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
1
WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent. A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter). Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time. However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least. What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1. A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150... Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility. I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BallaJi
2
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2)2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2) 📉💵 📆 Feb 25 was just the beginning — and now we’ve got confirmation. DXY couldn’t hold above structure, and the drop is on. What began as a quiet theme is turning into the macro headline: The King Dollar is softening... on purpose. 🔍 Chart Context • 🔴 Rejection at 112.3 — clean and brutal** • 🔁 100.95 now flipped into resistance** • 📉 Heading toward Target: 94.37** — the long-term structure low The structure hasn’t changed — only the velocity has. This isn’t a flash move. This is policy-meets-price. 🧨 Fundamentals: Trump’s Soft Dollar Doctrine Back on January 23, Trump told the world exactly what he wanted: “I’d like to see interest rates come down… a lot.” “Oil down, prices down, inflation gone — and then rates down.” Translation? 💵 A weaker dollar to fuel exports, ease debt loads, and juice the real economy.** This is not weakness — it’s a recalibration. Add in: • Tariffs + labor policy inflation • Pressure on Powell • Geopolitical chess moves (Putin negotiations, Middle East detente) → and you’ve got a coordinated softening playbook. 📉 What’s Next? • 🔹 Break 98 = Target 94.37 opens wide • 🧱 If 94 cracks, we’ll re-assess — but for now, that’s the magnet • DXY needs a miracle to reclaim strength without Fed resistance easing 2025 could be the year the dollar gets normalized by force — not finesse. 🔄 Perspective Shift 🔄 This isn’t dollar death — it’s dollar diplomacy. Strong enough to hold global weight, soft enough to boost Main Street. You think this isn’t coordinated? Look again. 📡 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 First episode: ⚠️ I’m not a financial advisor — just a philosopher with better chart vision than 99% of the noise out there. What I share is my view, not a signal. You trade? You’re responsible. Just don’t blame me when I’m right again.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX_Professor
USD/AUD Short Term OutlookHey guys, This is a thesis I've had for quite some time but seems to be unfolding of late. With the talks and worries about the regional banks in America and the private credit companies loan books not looking good as the consumer is being squeezed from tariffs, higher interest rates, unemployment slowly ticking up and student debts having to be paid back again after credit growth soared after covid i feel we could see a recession hit the US sometime over the next year. I doubt it will be a collapse anything like 2008 or anything but even a slow down on growth and a pull back on spending could lead to big declines from these AI bubble fueled highs as P/E have risen way out of hand. Something like the 2000s seems more accurate to current conditions. IF this thesis is right you will see marked declines in the AUD against the USD and i have laid out my first target of .60 as it fits the technical pattern and we have a confluence of support there. We have also recently rejected off the resistance lines, broken the rising wedge (RED Lines), slipped back under the 100SMA. This provides a great enter point with a tight stop loss and a clear take profit. I will be posting my future outlook for the AUD so please check it out to get the bigger picture Also do your own research
Short
by jackwheeler
EURUSD in channel resistance rangeHello friends The EURUSD currency pair has reached the ceiling in the channel resistance range and you can take a sell position at this price. The stop loss if the price stabilizes above the trend line in the 4h time frame is in the price range of 1.16900 The take profit is in the channel bottom range in the price range of 1.14800 Dear traders, please do not forget about capital management, risk management and adherence to the stop loss. When the price reaches the target, the update for this currency pair will be posted again, so follow me to be informed about low-risk and successful trading ranges and be the first to know I hope you are profitable.
Short
by morteza_javidi
Dollar Index Big Map: Trend Is Your Friend This year, the dollar has been in the red all the way down — until it hit the strong support line of a multi-decade uptrend (white). From there, it bounced to the upside. So, what’s next? I’d like to share with you a big map of the Dollar Index. I assume that we are still within the large second leg ((Y)) of the ((WXY)) corrective structure (white). Within this structure, we can see a smaller-degree (WXY) correction (blue). Currently, the market is moving in the last leg C of the final upward move in blue wave (Y). Many times, I’ve observed how beautifully these wave structures align with strong pivot points. The ultimate target for wave ((Y)) is near the top of wave ((W)), around 121. This level also matches the target where blue wave (Y) equals blue wave (X) — an amazing correlation! There are two key confirmation levels marked on the map: Bullish confirmation — above 110 (this would invalidate the bearish scenario). Bearish confirmation — below 89 (this would invalidate the ((WXY)) structure).
TVC:DXYLong
by aibek
Asian Session Prep | Price Holding Above Yesterday’s HighNew day, new opportunity — and the bulls are still in control. Price broke above yesterday’s high before the Asian killzone, showing strong intent early. Now, as we move into the session, it looks like we’re setting up for a continuation — using the previous Daily High (4234.7) as intraday support. I’ll be watching for a clean reaction around that level during the next impulsive hour. As long as price continues respecting that structure, I’ll maintain a bullish bias. 💡 Key Notes: Setup: Killzone Continuation Bias: Bullish Key Level: 4234.7 (Previous Daily High → Support) Session Focus: Asian Killzone (8PM–11PM CST) Target Zones: 4250 short-term, 4280 stretch target Blind Spot: Price might retrace deeper before expansion — watch for liquidity sweeps near 4220 before continuation. #Gold #Futures #DayTrading #PriceAction #AsianSession #KillzoneTrading #NoFOMO #Discipline #ICTInspired #TraderMindset
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
How High Will Gold Go? It Depends on the DollarThe inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is evident. Interestingly, we observe that when the dollar falls, gold rises—but the magnitude of gold’s increase is often greater than the dollar’s decline. As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up. From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up. From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up. And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up. With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential. Conversely, when the dollar increases, gold declines by almost the same magnitude. Apart from de-dollarization, what are the other reasons dollar will face more headwinds? There are three elements • Existing debt, • more money printing and • tariffs, All these 3 elements are not going to go away anytime soon, as long as the debt continue to rise, more money to be printed and more tariffs impose, dollar downtrend is likely to continue. When dollar is down, gold is up. And these trends did not happen recently. It is taking shape over the past decades with a lower dollar, we can see how nicely the trends have seated on its historical troughs and peaks forming the channel for the dollar, and also in the gold over the decades. This tutorial video version: Mirco Gold Futures and Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow