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KBE - S %& P Small Bank ETF LONGKBE is an unleveraged bank ETF which on the 60 minute chart is currently trending with a buy signal from the machine learning algo indicator. Banks are reporting. Interest rate changes by the fed are flat for the time being. The volume profile shows KBE took a dip to try to fall back into the high-volume area and bounced. It has recovered from a VWAP band breakdown correcting from the 3rd upper band to the first upper band. The dual time RSI indicator shows the faster RSI line crossing over the slower RSI line and both in the healthy 60 range. I see this as a buying opportunity on KBE and will also take a look at DPST. I see price as targeting the February 23 high about 20% upside.
AMEX:KBELong
by AwesomeAvani
TMV setting up a reversal LONGOn this 4H chart- TMV the leverage bear Treasuries ETF has been trending up in a parallel channel. AT present it bounced from the top of the channel and is heading down to the bottom of the channel. It is there that I will trade long where the bottom of the channel is confluent with the mean VWAP providing an overlap of dynamic support. Near that same level is the POC line of the volume profile. Price needs to stay above the POC line for the probabilities to tell me to trade long. Roughly I am looking for a trade from 145 to about 160 for a 10% move more or less. The stop loss under the channel trend line for about 1.5 and so the ratio is about 6. Once in the area of the bottom of the channel. I will look to the indicators and zoom into 15-30 minutes as a time frame to find the entry. I will entertain taking a trade in a fair number of shares and potentially buy a put option for insurance against the downside to hedge against losses. I expect the trade to last a week or less and so averaging about 2% gain daily.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
BNKU- Triple Leveraged Bank Sector LONGOn the hourly chart, BNKU fell from a head and shoulders in late July , crossed under VWAP lines in a VWAP breakdown and pullback before an inverse head and shoulders type reversal now underway. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. I will take a long trade here. Projected stop loss and targets ( TP1-40% TP2 40% and T3 20%) are on the chart. I see this as a very safe trade with an estimated 12% overall profit expected. I am in a WFC trade and looking at ETFs DPST and KRE as well
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
WFC setting up a VWAP bounce LONGOn this 4H chart, I see WFC having had a bit trend up and then a retractment through the upper anchored VWAP lines toward the mean running VWAP where I expect a bounce. At present, price action is in a bit of a flat bottom triangle. The ZL MACD supports this impending reversal with bullish divergence in the line cross under a histogram which went red to green. I will take a long trade here with a stop loss under the histogram and a target just below the pivot high in mid July. I will zoom onto a 30 minute time frame to better select an optimal entry on the reversal. I will check banks in general including the ETFs KRE KBE BNKU and DPST.
NYSE:WFCLong
by AwesomeAvani
DPST a triple leveraged bullish ETF for Regional Banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks DPSt had a bad time in the spring with the small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of citizens in them. There has been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken some business from small banks sattled with securities with diminished value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines. Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative trend index signal is near zero meaning at least in this instance trend is fairly quiet with low volatility. Relative strength lines have bounced up from the lows of about 20 and now are in the 40-50 range. Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 100 buy the end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days. My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential for a ver low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel.
AMEX:DPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
KRE a banking sector ETF for regional banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks KRE had a bad time in the spring with the small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of citizens in them. There have been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken some business from small banks saddled with securities with diminished value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines. Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative trend index signal shows bearish trending today providing confirmation of of a dip which is now available as an entry point. Relative Strength Indicator which compares with the SPY showing persistent strength Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 52 by the end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days. My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential for a very low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel at 47.84 I have uploaded a similar idea on DPST.
AMEX:KRELong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?While I believe that the markets are currently standing on the edge of a cliff and will not produce a new all time high, it's very important to note that price action is yet to confirm that, with the most significant catalyst of them all being Wednesday's FOMC. Wednesday's FOMC is important because whether the Fed hikes again and how much they hike will determine what happens with bond yields, which determines what happens to bond prices (inverse correlation), which determines what will happen with the U.S. Petrodollar. There's no FOMC again until September. I discuss what I think will happen this week in the following call: ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon Charles Schwab is an important piece of the U.S. banking structure because it's the 10th largest bank in the country. When you take a look at recent price action on banks, everything seems to be going pretty well, and it's almost as if the Silicon Valley Bank crisis never happened. SIVB's demise, however, was a really significant canary in the coal mine because that particular bank was not only one of the largest in the country, but a major intermediary between the West's venture capital community and the Chinese Communist Party. You just absolutely have to keep an eye on what's going on with China and the International Rules Based Order right now, because everything "Taiwan War" is really talking about how the globalists can take control of China as the CCP falls. Based on this, I think Taiwan Semiconductor is a significant long hedge right now because it's not a component of the U.S. indexes, and is a world leader in silicon wafer production: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge China is the world's 5,000 year country and has huge natural resources and a huge population of very sophisticated people, so it's a target. If Xi Jinping is smart, he will weaponize the 24-year persecution, organ harvesting, and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million believers to protect himself and the Motherland. But if he does this it means that the entire world will quickly be implicated in the Nero-like persecution of spiritual cultivators of an upright faith. The impact on the markets, our society, and our reality will be extreme. And oh so hard to bear. I can only say if you want to be long at this point, you need to be hedged long on volatility or you might die. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude The enormous Schwab dump from March, which you primarily see was a fully manifested failure swing only on the monthly bars: Was spurred on by the banking crisis, which served as a prelude to the very significant bear market rally we've had. Now everyone believes new highs are in order and everything is going to be fine. It's time to go long, go on vacation, and collect money while being hammered in a speedo at the beach with the other men. What a painful hangover. The problem with the more up more right now crowd's thesis on Schwab is that the entire range above where we're at, and we're already flirting with the 79% retrace of the March gap down, was already filled, which we see on the weekly: Moreover, there are two significant price action problems with the bull case from a market maker perspective. The first is that Schwab dumped to exactly $45.00 in the first place. Computers don't like preserving round numbers and people just love to put stops under/at psychologically significant whole numbers. The second is that the COVID dump was likewise $28.00. And for the same reasons, that's even more dangerous. I am predisposed to believe that Schwab is likely to be the next Credit Suisse-style big short, and may even be the vanguard for the next crisis that would take us under SPX 4,200 and towards 3,700 in accordance with the new JPM collar, which I discuss below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' As for what the fundamental story will be, it's very hard to say. But let's compare Schwab's monthly bars you see above to some other top 10 banks: Bank of America Monthly Does not show any indication of failure swings and really just looks like a healthy retrace. While Wells Fargo does not look strong enough, it also does not yet indicate a real short setup on higher time frames And this is even more true for JP Morgan And Goldman Sachs Which can be, at worst, only be said to be setting up for the first leg of a failure swing. At worst. And thus it is extremely notable that Charles Schwab is as weak as it is. My call is the thesis that the optimal short entry is already here, with some kind of flirtation with the $70.00 mark due for FOMC. And if Schwab and the banking sector and the equities sector are truly bullish, that would be great, but I still expect a stab back into the "wick play" area before it would move to set a new all time high, which means $69 to $50 is really quite the win if you're short and quite the loss if you're longing the top or haven't taken profits. If Schwab and the banking sector are really the catalyst for something as disastrous as Nasdaq 9,000, then the target is under $28 and you're more or less standing on the edge of The Big Short. Right now, with the VIX as suppressed as it is and price as high as it is, January '25 $55 puts are only $3.7~ with at the money puts being $8.3~ Just selling them on a flirt with $50 again, let alone $44.99, is already a big win. Humans never believe in anything until they can see it. It's one of their worst deficiencies.
NYSE:SCHWShort
by LordWrymouth
BNKD Is the banking crisis still simmering?Recently, a report posted on the Social Science Research Network found that 186 banks in the United States are at risk of failure or collapse due to rising interest rates and a high proportion of uninsured deposits.Jun 14, 2023 BNKD, the banking bearish and leveraged ETF has dropped in trend down in the past month albeit with some upgoing corrections along the way. GS, JPM and MS are all uptrending as an with DPST high jumping in the past day. On the 2H chart, BNKD is in deep oversold undervalued territory at or below more than two standard deviations below the mean VWAP. However: (1) the mass index indicator popped into the reversal zone and then dropped below the trigger level of 26.5. I see this as a mathematical prediction of a soon impending reversal. (2) the dual time frame RSI shows the lower TF blue line bounced from the lows and the higher TF is flat not showing further weakness. I consider this a subtle bullish divergence. (3) Importantly the red line in the sand here is the POC line of the visible range volume profile. Price is presently supported by that line showing buyers taking a defensive stand at that level. Overall, I will take a long reversal trade here targeting the middle of the first upper deviation band at 12.0 with a stop loss at 8.88. This is a high potential reward of 35% for a small risk taken. The reward on an options trade would potentially be well over 100%. I will zoom into a 15-30 minute time frame to select a pivot low to make a more precise entry.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
DPST- Banks will thrive if rate hikes are over LONGDPST is shown here on the 15- minute chart- This triple leveraged bank stock hit a double bottom in late June and early July with a double bounce from the lines one standard deviation below the mean VWAP lines anchored at pivots in mid-May. These lines provide dynamic support and resistance unlike vertical lines from pivots. From the VWAP breakout, price has crossed over the mean VWAPs and is not at the level of the volume profile's POC line and the one standard deviations above the mean VWAP. The two time frame RSI indicator shows the lower time frame rising from below 20 to over 50 and crossing over the higher black line TF RSI is for me a clear and convincing sign of bullish momentum in its extreme form. Fundamentally, bank stocks are gaining in the federal news data regarding CPI and PPI. Based on this analysis, I will take a long trade here targeting the second deviation lines at about $70.5 representing about a11% upside in one week or less.
AMEX:DPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
FAS bullish leveraged EFT on the financial sectorFAS is one of the Direxion leveraged ETFs focused on the financial sector. As can be seen on the 15 minute the price action has had increasing volatility in the past month. Increasing volatility is the hallmark of the megaphone pattern ( a megaphone is a cone like hand held plastic device used in the old days before bullhorns and other things to amplify voice for cheers). FAS may have increasing volatility because of federal actions related to rate hikes, some bank failures and the banking industry adjusting to the " new normal" as higher rates become increasingly integrated into the financial system while still remaining viligent regarding a recession and its own set of complications. To play a megaphone traders will typically set a plan to buy on the lower support trendline hold for a short period and then sell at the upper resistance trendline. I will open a long trade on FAS given that it is presently near to support making for a suitable risk to reward ratio if putting a stop loss immediately below the support trendline.
AMEX:FASLong
by AwesomeAvani
DPST Long as the banking sector stabilizesDPST was down in April, consolidated in May and is now parabolically rising and had a price split in recent days.On the one hour chart, price is rising along the quickly after a pivot on June 1. Price is well above the POC line of the intermediate term volume profile showing buyer strength The relative strength on the RSI indicator is flat over 80. I will take a long trade with a stop loss at 5% and a take profit at 20%. I will end the trade early if the RSI drops below 75 as a risk management maneuver. I will be viligent for a correction / retracement because the price is up more than 10% in one day.
AMEX:DPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
KBE ( in top of ascending channel ) is ready to shortKBE on the one-hour chart has been in a rising parallel channel for a month. It is now near the the top of the channel having pivoted within the past few trading sessions. The MACD which is no lag shows a line cross above the histogram while the RSI is topped out as it was on May 23rd the most recent previous pivot downward. I see this as a short setup. The stop loss is at the recent pivot high while the target is $35.15 at the bottom of the channel and somewhat confluent with the POC line of the volume profile which is a natural bounce and reversal value. I would also short the banks by going long on BNKD which adds the extra risk and potential reward of leverage ( see that idea)
AMEX:KBEShort
by AwesomeAvani
Is it time to short the big banks with BNKD again?As shown on the 4H chart BNKD, a triple leveraged ETF inverse to big bank stocks has had ups and downs reflecting the chaos in the banking system with some failures and federal support or takeovers. Online banks are thriving while some smaller regional banks are challenged with a portfolio of bonds and treasuries bearing low yields. Price is presently at the same level as the high of December 22 and low of April 23. This level is acting as support also allowing for a narrow stop loss for a long trade. Price is below the high volume area of the long term volume profile which equates to the fair value area. Accordingly, BNKD is oversold and discounted below fair value into the undervalued range. It is below the mean anchored VWAP line and in the area of one standard deviation below that line. The zero-lag MACD shows an early impending cross of the lines under the histogram another suggestion of a reversal I will take a long trade with the stop loss directly below the horizontal support line by $ 0.25 while the first target just below the confluence of the POC line and the mean VWAP @ $.13.90 while the final target is $ 15.60 near the top of the high volume area. I see this as a safe long trade with a high R:R and profit potential.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BAC rising from support LONGBAC on the daily recently descended from an asymmetrical head and shoulders pattern near to or in the supply zone as indicated by the Luxalgo indicator down into the demand zone in late March and early May for a double bottom. Fundamentally, the banking system has been propped up by the federal central banking mechanisms and the situation seems to have stabilized. DPST and KRE banking ETFs have had some good days of late. On the chart the Luxalgo Echo indicator, a predictive algorithmic tool, suggests that BAC will rise during this summer and then bounced down from the resistance of the trendline of the neck of the asymmetrical H & S. I can easily conclude that BAC is ripe for a long trade. I will take an out of the money call option for DTE 9/20 striking #37.00. I will set the stop loss at 20% - Of the 15 contracts, I will close 2 after each 20% profit level is achieved and expect to make overall 150-250% by mid-August. Because of time decay, I will not carry these open beyond September 1st.
NYSE:BACLong
by AwesomeAvani
KBE Banking Sector ETF Long Swing LongKBE is in the middle of a beatdown with two of the biggest bank failures in history this week. The share price action is reflecting overall distribution. The moving averages ( SMA 100 and SMA 200) are parellel and not crossing. Today, the price action had a little pullback on the drop and perhaps an early sign of reversal or at least the end of the trend into a consolidation. Price action today is a symmetrical triangle at the POC line suggesting some dynamic stability and perhaps a pause awaiting a reversal. My idea is to buy weaknesses and later sell some new strengths ( or at least the weakness fixed). Dip buying ( pull backs on the big picture) has risks associated with the rewards. This would be with shares on the way down ( or a call option ) getting cheaper and cheaper buyers and then start selling once shares are 10% above the cost and calls 25% above their cost once the reversal is trending. ( Another idea is to buy a given dollar amount of shares and then 5% as much dollar amount in put options two strikes above current price with DTE 3/24) as a hedge ( insurance on risk).
AMEX:KBELong
by AwesomeAvani