Despite the solid amount of bets on the hawkish outcome of ECB October meeting, where a decision should be made to cut money supply, Draghi does it all to play down the event. At the conference in Frankfurt, the president of ECB once again recalled positive aspects of cheap liquidity, saying that low rates create a window of opportunity for European governments...
After a big bullish impulse last friday, price is on a corrective structure. Now is rejecting 38.2% fibonacci retracement, but we should see it dropping till MA50 aprox(coinciding with 50% or 61.8% fibonacci). Long positiong will be taken at bullish breakout
Price has been correcting big bearish movement since last week. EJ rejected 50% of fibonacci + MA50 with a low bullish volume. Breakout has done, so we can expect bearish movements this week.
We have recently formed Tweezer bottoms (bullish) formed just above significant support of 1.17 that has been in effect since early August We did have tripple top just above 1.20 price level, however if we look at monthly scale - we can see super strong bullish momentum Also, last business week has retested and closed above significant monthly support meaning...
We can see strong support at 132.3 respected throughout whole last week where last daily candle indicates bullish engulfing Each of last 5 days has higher highs and higher lows - we can sense decent bullish momentum starting here
Strong US GDP The data on US economy released on Tuesday was yet another proof that the Fed needs to raise rates in December. US GDP grew at a higher pace in the second quarter than expected. Inventories rose in August by 1 percent, reflecting the confidence of producers in improving consumer demand outlook. Curiously, GDP was resistant to a drop in inflationary...
Actually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical...
Pair is is very close proximity to resistance channel valid from May. As most likely scenarios from now on I see upward rebound from 50MA (red line) or from resistance line drawn in monthly scale (orange line). If that were not to materialize, I have second long setup as well just above 1.17. Fibonacci indicates resistance at 61.8% meaning there is likelihood of...
The situation on Korean peninsula remains one of the most high-quality and coherent dollar signals, especially paired with the yen. USDJPY lost half a percentage point in the course of trading on Friday after Kim Jong-un again threatened to conduct a nuclear test in response to Trump's statement to destroy North Korea. In the medium term, USDJPY buyers remain the...
This morning JPY strengthen across the board due to Trump and North Korea's comment. In my opinion the move is quite overextended as now the prospect of another bomb test is no longer a surprised. Fundmentally EUR is a strong currency and the reaction yesterday from Draghi's speech was positive. EUR is due a string of data today, of which I expected them to be...
The Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, but surprisingly saw December hike appropriate despite persisting slack on inflation front. As expected, the Fed set a green light to balance sheet cut, amounted 4.2 trillion. dollars, most of which has been amassed after the 2008 mortgage crisis. According to new economic forecasts, 11...
EURUSD rejected last week the 1.20 psychological level. Today we can see a breakout of a 1H-4H trend. So, a bearish movement till the prime trend is expected. Then, two possible scenarios could happen. Scenario 1: Correction till the prime trend. Breakout of the correction and bullish rebound. Scenario 2: Breakout of the prime trend and bearish movement till...
Surprising detonation of H bomb by North Korea on Sunday halted a short period of market ease, heaping up investors in the safe heavens and leading to dollar rout. The impact of nuclear blasts as a factor of uncertainty can not be overstated, as the DPRK steps up its nuclear program despite the trade blockade and harsh criticism of the United States, Japan and...
Morning outlook - EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid Rate As it was expected, a pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs neutralized any further attempts of the currency pair to slip to the bottom. The exchange rate even managed to from a junior ascending channel and bypass the weekly PP at 1.1918, fluctuating within it. Today will be...
Very quick and intuitive short. As I was typing my review of the EURAUD trade, and reviewing Draghi speech, the Short idea pops up and I went right in as it broke through 1.2 like a piece of cake. I put wide stop though..who knows it may retrace.
Draghi is due to speak tonight during the ECB Press Conference. I guess today this is all market will talk about. The morning session up to this point has not hinted much, aside from EURAUD moving up due to AUD bad data, the rest is kinda sideway. Running into this event I don't have any particular insights, given the structure of first statement, followed by Q&A,...
In view of this coming ECB risk event, we are going with a bearish bias on EURUSD. Price has formed a 5-wave move since 21st June from the low @ 1.1120 to the high @ 1.2070 on 29th August. This forms the 3rd bullish wave on the higher degree. With the recent price development, we are expecting a retracement to the downside towards 1.1732 area; and we are...
Reserve Bank of Australia stretched the period of soft credit conditions for mortgage borrowers, key agents of debt financing in the country, leaving cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The peaceful course of the Central Bank was predicted by all 27 economists surveyed Bloomberg and partly was justified by a positive statistics on the real estate market. A low rate is...