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If the trade war between US/China will be escalated further, this is almost sure scenario
Main fundamental reasons:
-David Davis not up for compromises regarding brexit deal
-Signs of North Korea still working on nuclear program + developing submarine capable of shooting ICBM
-Fibonacci levels are respected by price action
TP1 - 146
TP2 - 145.500
All negatives are all most likely priced in already
-Curently just below strong resistance
-Mike Pence meeting with Turkish PM on Thursday so watch out
-TCMB member recently noted that Inflation will most likely be overshooting until December
- 7-8 December will be EU-Turkish economic cooperation meeting
-VISA situation still not fully resolved
Might hit support trend line if any significant upward move wont start now
Will be watching out for 4H and Daily candle
My bias is bullish for now
Looking to buy Bitcoin at highlighted levels. Fibonacci works like charm here.
Since mid August we are seeing clear bear engulfing signals (highlighted in red rectangles) where each of them is topping lower than previous one (lower highs)
We have hanging man at our last 4H candle indicating bearish momentum
Price will require careful monitoring near orange S/R lines where price will either bounce or break
Gbp/Jpy has formed bullish falling wedge and nice opportunity will come in close proximity of support and resistance line line of the wedge, where price will either rebound or break
Currently on 4H scale, we have shooting star on last candle indicating bearish momentum - it will require careful monitoring near support line
We might be retesting ...
We can see strong support at 132.3 respected throughout whole last week where last daily candle indicates bullish engulfing
Each of last 5 days has higher highs and higher lows - we can sense decent bullish momentum starting here
We have recently formed Tweezer bottoms (bullish) formed just above significant support of 1.17 that has been in effect since early August
We did have tripple top just above 1.20 price level, however if we look at monthly scale - we can see super strong bullish momentum
Also, last business week has retested and closed above significant monthly support meaning ...
Since mid August we are seeing clear bear signals (highlighted in red ellipses) where each of them is topping lower than previous one (lower highs)
Third of the signals Tweezer top comprised of the last two trading days has retested significant resistance level and has retested resistance line given by previous two signals too.
From purely technical standpoint, ...
Will we reach 1270 by end of this week?
Given that Japan is stagflant economy, YEN is safe haven currency so its driven mainly by risk on/risk off sentiments on global markets
In case that we’ll see any further escalation of North Korean tensions, we can expect instant downmove – any more serious comments from North Korean officials could trigger that (Markets are already quite used to NK hostile ...
Pair is is very close proximity to resistance channel valid from May.
As most likely scenarios from now on I see upward rebound from 50MA (red line) or from resistance line drawn in monthly scale (orange line).
If that were not to materialize, I have second long setup as well just above 1.17.
Fibonacci indicates resistance at 61.8% meaning there is likelihood of ...
Theresa May lacked clarity in terms of how to deal with Brexit + Trump tax coming (some bits were leaked recently)
Comes down to super high Australian household debt and Trump tax reform
Weak Canadian retail sales last week (first weak Canadian data after long time) and my personal optimism of Trump tax reform to be announced this Wednesday are key factors here
-We're getting to the top of long-term range
-Jackson Hole conference at the end of this week will host both Yellen and Draghi
-Draghi will IMO be dovish to smaller or higher extend as per his latest comments of Euro "overshooting in repricing by financial markets"
-Other circumstances indicate he wont be hawkish (no QE tapering for now
-Will enter the trade as ...
-I was hesitant to short gold mostly because of tensions with North Korea, however IMO any military escalation from now on is unlikely. Market got used to North Korea shooting wanna-be-ICBMs and missiles every now and then.
-I expect gold to be losing value til next friday
-US inflation data next friday might push Gold up a bit (as per labor report I expect ...