The geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight. Wheat prices jumped 4%1 as news broke out that a major dam Kakhovka in southern Ukraine had been destroyed. This is not the first mishap with the dam, as both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning sabotage back in October 2022.
In Ukraine, flooding caused by the destroyed Kakhovka dam...
sell off after bad Q3/Q4 results and final numbers from Q2 come in still negative, and perhaps, an official recession announcement. could be bad next year, depends on weather. may get an el nino weather pattern next year, then return to la nina and more drought. hopefully there isn't widespread food shortages and famine, but theres lots of farmers complaining...
an anecdotal visual representation of what that might look like. we may enter another depression, but its weather dependent. entering a 90 year drought cycle aka gleissburg cycle. hopefully i'm wrong.
I have just closed out a +8% trade and I am going long again.
The initial fundamentals where:
Brazillian drought
US-China trade war increasing agriculture exports out of Brazil
Weak $BRLUSD
Although some of these fundamentals are starting to wane, the technicals continue to show that Coffee has more to go
