Ultra Clean Holdings | UCTT | Long at $27.32Like Ichor Holdings NASDAQ:ICHR , Ultra Clean Holdings NASDAQ:UCTT is a prominent developer and supplier of critical subsystems, high-purity components, and specialized services, primarily for the semiconductor industry. I believe this is a very undervalued area in the semiconductor industry.
Growth
Earnings per share expected to more than triple between 2025 and 2028 and revenue is expected to be on the rise.
Health
Debt-to-equity: 0.9x (healthy)
Quick Ratio: 1.9 (great)
Altman's Z Score: 2.7 (good)
Action
Unless the semiconductor market implodes (or the company), the future looks bright for NASDAQ:UCTT in the next 2-3 years. It may dip into the low $20's in the near-term to close a few price gaps, but with a float of 44 million, it may get interesting at some point soon. Thus, at $27.32, NASDAQ:UCTT is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2029
$35.00 (+64.7%)
$60.00 (+119.6%)
Earnings
Ichor Holdings | ICHR | Long at $20.41Ichor Holdings NASDAQ:ICHR is a major supplier in the semiconductor industry, specifically focused on the semiconductor capital equipment sector rather than directly manufacturing chips themselves. I believe this is a very undervalued area in the semiconductor industry. The other major competitor is Ultra Clean Technologies NASDAQ:UCTT .
Insiders
Buying between $14 and $17 share.
Growth
Earnings per share expected to more than double between 2026 and 2028 and revenue on the rise.
Health
Debt-to-equity: 0.2x (healthy)
Quick Ratio: 1.3 (good)
Altman's Z Score: 2.8 (good)
Action
Unless the semiconductor market implodes (or the company), the future looks bright for NASDAQ:ICHR in the next 2-3 years. With a float of 32 million, it may get interesting at some point soon. Thus, at $20.41, NASDAQ:ICHR is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2029
$32.00 (+56.8%)
$42.00 (+105.8%)
BITF - when structure starts to matter more than headlinesBitfarms Ltd. is a publicly traded Bitcoin mining company operating large scale mining facilities across North and South America. The core business is cryptocurrency mining with a strong focus on energy efficiency, infrastructure ownership, and geographic diversification across Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay.
From a fundamental perspective as of late 2025, Bitfarms remains a growth focused company still in its investment phase. The upcoming Q4 2025 report is expected to show EPS around −0.04 USD with projected revenue near 66.45M USD. Throughout 2025, quarterly revenue has remained relatively stable in the 69–78M USD range, driven primarily by the cryptocurrency mining segment. Cash flows remain volatile and free cash flow is still negative, which is typical for miners actively expanding capacity and upgrading infrastructure. This is not a dividend or value story, but a leveraged bet on scale, efficiency, and the broader crypto market cycle.
Technically, the structure is clean and well defined. On the 4 hour chart, price formed a falling wedge that has already broken to the upside with a clear and confirmed retest. The breakout held, sellers failed to push price back inside the pattern, and momentum stabilized. All previously existing gaps have now been fully closed, reducing downside risk from unfinished price imbalances. Price is currently sitting on a strong daily support zone, while the working timeframe remains the 4 hour chart. Higher timeframe structure confirms support validity, and price action shows early accumulation behavior.
From a tactical standpoint, Bitfarms is transitioning from a corrective phase into a potential new impulse. As long as price holds the current support zone, the path opens toward the 3.91 area. If the broader structure remains intact and crypto sentiment stays constructive, continuation toward the 6.60 zone becomes technically justified. This is not a short term hype trade, but a structured continuation setup after a confirmed breakout and retest.
Sometimes the market clears all unfinished business first, and only then starts the real move. .
Major correctionI'm targetting a drop to 11 000 around Aug to Dec next year and back to more reasonable valuations than currently. This would also arrive at the very long term lower trend line on the log chart. The area around 11 000 looks to me like it need retesting. And it would need to be in this sort of time frame, before we run out of time to get back to such levels on this lower log trend line.
Ok possible, but far fetched, so it still needs a reason.
So why should that happen?
A confluence of factors:
- I believe inflation will stay elevated for some time and even potentially resurge. Trumps tariffs are not helping with disruptions and inefficiency on supply chains.
- I think its unavoidable that AI will destroy jobs. Long term it will balance out, as it always does. But in the interim this will be faster than the labour market can adapt. So a lot of job losses
- Due to the inflation backdrop, the fed's hands will be tied, regarding dropping rates. So they wont be able to rescue markets on this occasion with their Ponzi scheme. THAT will be a big problem. Or if that's not the case, the job losses may still be too much anyway, for their fiddling to prevent.
My only reservation with this analysis, is that the jobs losses may be a bit slower to start showing up, than the this time frame will allow. If so, then it may not make it as far down as11 000, due to missing the window of opportunity to reach this level before it becomes below the lower log trend line. Although if it gets near, i cant believe it will not target it. If it misses by this date, its still possible to break the trend line to reach this area, if conditions became bad enough. But that would be quite extreme. But maybe it will be so.
The final factor is contracting money supply. This could cause the above scenario alone anyway. As ballooning supply is mostly how we got where we are. But certainly if combined with any of the others, it could be nasty. So be very vigilant on this.
Note, that the chart posted is a monthly chart. So this is a longer term view. So dont expect this to happen imminently or on a particular day/week/month. But keep an eye out for the signs.
Lastly, potential labels for the 3 up waves of an elliot wave. The first and third are similar in terms of % gain. Less do in terms of time duration, but still more similar to each other than compared to the middle wave. Elliot waves are extremely discretional however and vary according to time frame. So much variation in delineation is possible. And it could still continue for some time. Mentioned more as a possible point of interest than a useful tool.
diwali pick 6 : ganesh consumer productkey facts about Ganesh Consumer Products, organized by category:
Product Portfolio (42 products, 232 SKUs)
– Whole Wheat Flour: Sharbati, White, Multigrain, Diabetes Control, Gluten-Free Atta
– Value-Added Flours: Bakery Maida, Super Fine Maida, Tandoori Atta, Rumali Atta
– Roasted Gram Flour (Sattu): Multigrain, Sweet, Jaljeera, Chocolate Sattu
– Spices: Turmeric, Chili, Coriander (whole & powder), Cumin (whole & powder), blended masalas
Manufacturing Footprint (7 plants)
– West Bengal (Kolkata): Jalan Complex I (Sooji/Maida 47,850 TPA; 72% util), Jalan Complex II (Spices 2,552–5,104 TPA; 2–27% util), Padmavati Unit (Atta 47,850 TPA; 80% util; Maida/Sooji 47,850 TPA; 54% util; Dalia 7,656 TPA; 74% util)
– Food Park: Sattu 15,950 TPA (49%), Besan 6,380 TPA (62%), ethnic flours 6,380 TPA (37%)
– Uttar Pradesh: Varanasi (Atta 47,850 TPA; 41%), Agra (Sooji/Maida 47,850 TPA; 63%)
– Telangana: Hyderabad (Maida/Sooji 63,800 TPA)
Business Model & Distribution
– 77% B2C revenue; remaining from B2B sales and by-product off-take
– 28 C&F agents, 9 super-stockists, 972 distributors, 70,000+ retail outlets
– Presence in 204 modern-trade stores and on multiple e-commerce platforms
IPO & Use of Proceeds
– Raised ₹409 crore in September 2025 IPO (listed Sep 29, 2025)
– Fresh issue ₹130 crore to: repay debt; fund Darjeeling gram-flour/Sattu unit capex; general corporate purposes
This comprehensive network, diversified SKU base, robust manufacturing capacity, and capital infusion position Ganesh Consumer for continued growth in its core flour and spice categories.
Dassault Aviation Société AnonymeFor my last idea of the year I have chosen to write one about Dassault Aviation. I really find aerospace and defense companies to be the most interesting to me in all of the stock market. As a matter of fact the majority of my holdings are invested into aerospace and defense companies. Aeronautics has always been an extremely competitive industry, ever since the first airplanes, engineers constantly strive to make the technology better, faster, safer and more cost effective.
I chose Dassault because I think the Rafale fighter program has a competitive advantage over the rest of the competition for the moment. There was also some issues, I remember around March of 2025 I saw on the news about how some nations were concerned with the credibility of the US and some nations even cancelled or suspended contracts with Lockheed Martin to delay F-35 purchases. I don't want to talk about that too much because I don't really know what is going on with that topic of discussion to tell you the truth. I do know nations take their national security very seriously though and aerospace and defense is no exception.
Like most aerospace and defense companies right now it is difficult to see very much upside intrinsically speaking. The sector has had some really nice attention and momentum this year, I don't see why it wouldn't continue into 2026 and beyond. I think its important to realize I am not really speculating about the topic though. I am not trying to say "buy it because I think it will go up". I think good ideas are just as important in the stock market as risk management itself and if you ask me I don't think its worth risking very much on Dassault right now.
Primary capital allocation is designated to research and development, industrial infrastructure and supply chain management. These are important elements when we look at the price of Dassault on a chart because the capital expenditures are primarily why certain price actions occur in real time. For example, if the company needs money to finance something new, the price of the shares might drop temporarily as money is being spent, alternatively if they get a new contract and its a big deal, they expect to make a lot of money from it the share price might go up. This is why I love these industrial companies, because we all know the products the company is providing is going to need a lot of maintenance over the years.
The company actively partakes in employee share programs, Dassault has allocated hundreds of millions of Euros toward employee incentives and profit-sharing in the current fiscal cycle. The company also likes to reward shareholders by engaging in share buy back programs from time to time. There is also a slight dividend that the company pays out as well if that is something you receive then you will know it helps out the portfolio a little bit.
The company has a pretty large cash position valued at about €10 billion at the end of 2025. This is primarily from advanced payments received by nations for major Rafale export contracts. Currently there is a record breaking order backlog on aircraft orders going into 2026, there is about €48 billion in backlog value. Don't quote me on this though because that was the value about 6 months ago so today it could be a little more or less, the value doesn't really matter to us as retail investors but I am just saying it for context. The company plans to take care of this backlog in a timely manner though, they plan to invest in more industrial capacity.
Recently the company celebrated production of its 300th Rafale fighter jet, and announced plans to increase production rates to four aircraft per month in the coming years to ensure deliveries stretch reliably into the 2030s. I think the stock would make a fine addition to any properly diversified portfolio as long as you understand the potential risks associated. Its a pretty interesting company I think there's definitely some great information on the internet and I am happy that I got to write this idea and share some information today.
Merry Christmas and thanks for putting up with me. Hope you enjoyed the idea.
Coty | COTY | Long at $3.00NYSE:COTY , one of the world's largest beauty companies, is known for its extensive portfolio of fragrances, cosmetics, skincare, and body care brands, such as:
Adidas
Bourjois
Bozzano
Bruno Banani
Burberry
Calvin Klein
Cenoura & Bronze
Chloé
CoverGirl
David Beckham
Davidoff
Escada
Etro
Gabriela Sabatini
Gucci
Hugo Boss
Infiniment Coty Paris
Jawhara
Jil Sander
Joop!
Jovan
Kylie Cosmetics
Kylie Skin
Lancaster
Leger by Lena Gercke
Manhattan
Marc Jacobs
Marni
Max Factor
Mexx
Miss Sporty
Monange
Nautica
Orveda
Paixao
Philosophy
Rimmel
Risqué
Sally Hansen
Swarovski
Tiffany & Co.
Vera Wang
Technical Analysis
Price double bounced off the top level of my selected historical "crash" simple moving average band. While the price may dip further to touch the lower end of this band (low $2 zone), this band is typically where share accumulation begins before a price reversal. The price may trade sideways for some time or jettison up, but my long-term outlook will simply require patience. Growth projections are modest and hinge on the company's successful execution of strategic restructuring and turnaround plans, delivery on new product launches and growth initiatives, and leadership stability / clear catalysts. Thus, at $3.00, NYSE:COTY is in a personal buy zone and not recommended for the risk averse.
Targets into 2028
$3.50 (+16.7%)
$4.70 (+56.7%)
Gogo Inc | GOGO | Long at $4.65While NASDAQ:GOGO Inc may have competition from Starlink when it comes to providing internet service to airlines and its passengers, such a change isn't financially beneficial to many airlines. Instead, as GoGo has stated, it's evolving its services to match those of Starlink (i.e. upgrades). As more and more people fly and internet demand grows, NASDAQ:GOGO will likely continue to position itself as a monopoly within the ISP world for airlines in the near-term.
Pros
Dominates the North American business aviation connectivity market, especially for smaller jets
Projected Growth : EPS +278.9% between 2025 and 2028
Insider Buying : $2.3 million in purchases in the last 2 months
Cons
Starlink competition
High debt (but plans to use free cash flow to reduce it substantially beyond 2026)
Action
While price may further dip into the $3 range in the near-term, I believe interest rates dropping, projected growth, and insider buying are potential bullish signals. The cost for airlines to switch to other providers is beneficial to maintaining NASDAQ:GOGO market dominance. However, like any play, this is going to come down to management's control of debt and no major economic or world issues disrupting airline travel. Thus, at $4.65, NASDAQ:GOGO is in a personal buy zone with near-term risk of a drop into the $3 range.
Targets into 2028
$6.00 (+29.0%)
$8.00 (+72.0%)
FERTILIZERS READY TO RIPFertilizer stocks have yet to move off their wave 2 bottoms. If you think the short squeeze in precious metals is mind-boggling—just wait till you see what a squeeze in fertilizers will look like. NYSE:IPI is the ONLY producer of POTASH in the USA. Most supply comes from Russia and Canada. Potash, like TVC:SILVER , is on the list of US critical minerals. No fertilizers, no food. You do the math. NYSE:IPI is HIGHLY TORQUED with only 10 million shares. No debt; MASSIVE cash hoard. The company is also ramping up production as demand increases and supply is squeezing. When this baby moves she will melt faces.
Caterpillar, a Key Industrial CompanyGood morning, I was going to wait until later tonight to write this idea and even though I don't feel so great this morning I still want to write it now while the words are in my head. Lately my mind is like a waterfall because things keep coming that I want to say. I don't hold onto these thoughts for too long I just let them go away because I don't really think its important to hold onto anything too tight. That's why I think its important that I write the idea now instead of later. For those of you that have been paying attention to what I have been saying will know by now I am not constituting financial advice, there is actually some wisdom in what I have been saying however.
I don't think a lot of people actually notice what the point I am trying to make is. I have said it before that I never stayed at a job for more than a few months and people seem to think that there's something wrong with me. See the problem is not with me, rather the problem is within their own ignorance. I am not saying this hypocritically either because I have already come to terms with my own ignorance, I am not calling people ignorant because I want to offend them even though that is always what happens. Sometimes the truth hurts and I think its so incredibly important to be honest with ourselves most of all.
Anyways it may seem at times like I might go off topic but at this point I am not going off topic. The topic of my ideas from now on is not to provide you with information about a company so you can make money. I think it would be much more meaningful to write about some of the things that have helped me to become successful in the stock market. Obviously, since I am writing about specific companies I will still include the necessary information I think is relevant to the context of the writing. Just know that, I am doing my best to provide quality content without wasting anyone's time.
So many people just want someone to tell them which stocks to buy or whether or not the stock will go up or down. To tell you the truth I don't think this is conducive to a constructive learning environment. I see so many people who are struggling in their trading career and they are focusing on the totally wrong things. It makes me sad to see this because there is really nothing I can do except write some ideas and hope these individuals are paying attention. The problem is that, most of the best ideas I have had are already behind me and I do not like to repeat myself so it is unlikely that I will write another idea on the same company even if I think its a good time to buy or not.
It also makes me feel good to write down my thoughts, its almost like a therapy for me. I am only human and none of my relatives care about stock market talk. In fact I can put almost anyone to sleep talking about the stock market. Anyways I am sure you probably want to see what I have to say about why Caterpillar is a good stock so without further adieu.
One of the things I find most interesting about Caterpillar is the fact that, it shows some pretty nice upside still. I used the discount cash flow model to interpret a fair value for the stock and I think a fair value for it would be somewhere in the ballpark of $675. This implies a significant upside despite the fact that technically it doesn't look great to be a buyer right now. Actually I doubled down on my position last week on Caterpillar and closed my position on Deere I am not writing this to talk about myself though and I don't think anyone cares about what I am doing anyways.
There has already been plenty of people talking about why the stock has done so good this year and I don't think it would really add any value to write about something that's already been said. This is one of those times where I am going to say if you are serious about buying some Caterpillar shares that you should do a little research for yourself on the company and why it is doing so good. It is not rocket science to go into Google and type "how does Caterpillar use capital in their business" that is literally all I did in some of my previous ideas that ended up being a little popular.
I used to be pretty bad at writing and I think the problem was, that I was trying to hard to say the right things. I have been having way more fun just saying, or well, writing the words as the come into my head. Like I said it makes me feel better to do this, I know someone has been paying attention to what I am saying and I truly hope that you don't take it the wrong way. Normally when I start writing these ideas I always feel like I would have more to say but it gets to a point where I kind of run out of words sort of speak. I know there's more I want to say but I don't know exactly what that is right now.
Anyways, thanks for reading my idea. I hope you make a lot of money and have a great day! Don't forget to have fun and stay safe this holiday season!
SGMO May Be the Most Mispriced Opportunity of 2025-26
-SGMO is shaping up to be a high-potential trade with both short- and long-term upside. After entering an uptrend in late 2023, the stock is showing strong bullish signals, with technical indicators and moving averages pointing to a favorable buy zone. Fundamentally, it's hitting a key turning point — EPS is moving from negative to positive for the first time, and revenue is projected to grow from \$50M to \$200M by 2028.
-Typically, SGMO experiences a major price jump every year, and it’s currently coming out of a low period. A breakout is expected within the coming month. Even under conservative estimates, a 200% return is possible in the near term. But if SGMO revisits its historical highs around $20 — a level it’s touched multiple times in the past — the upside from its current $0.50 range could exceed 4,000%. The financial structure is far stronger than it was during previous lows (like March 2020), making this a classic high-risk, high-reward setup worth watching closely.
Rambling off about Mitsubishi Heavy IndustriesAs you can see by the title of this idea it will be me writing about a company i think is interesting. It might end up being a lengthy read but I don't know how much I will manage to write before I get bored or covered all the topics I think are important from an investors point of view because I want to try and stay on topic when I write my ideas as best I can. Don't think that this is some kind of trading advice because its not, actually it makes me upset when people ask me to tell them if I think the price of a stock or index will go up or down. I can say that I wouldn't buy it if I didn't think it would go up, but I don't know when it will go up.
Looking at the valuation of the stock first, it appears to be quite overvalued and I'm going to hold off on buying it for awhile. There's a few reasons why I am going to wait to buy it, the first reason actually is because I only wanted to allocated 1 or 2 percent of my portfolio to the stock and for some reason right now it is prohibited to open a new position on the depository receipts. I would already start buying the stock if this was not the case but there's nothing I can do except wait for the trading permission to be available again. Like I said the stock is also very overvalued right now, there's really not any realistic room for upside in the near future. Granted that would not have stopped me from buying it, I probably would have still bought it if the OTC exchange would have allowed me because I just want to own the stock and price is not the most important thing to me when making these decisions.
I have started expanding my knowledge beyond most conventional ideas and have made my way into the Japanese stock market. Since I worked in the industries for a majority of my life I can't help but find the Japanese stock market incredibly interesting to me. I feel like a lot of the companies are major industrial entities in the world, I think most people might overlook the importance of some of the companies that trade on the Tokyo stock exchange. Mitsubishi Group is actually a vast conglomerate company which expands across hundreds of companies. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is responsible for managing its business operations in sectors like aerospace, defense, energy and heavy machinery, which also happen to align with my personal preference of companies that I like to invest in.
As you can see I have added some photos to my idea and I'm not trying to offend anyone when I posted photos of airplanes but this is one of the core business operations of the company and I have to say what I want to. That being said I also added some other photos of Mitsubishi products. The company is famously an engineering company at its core, I don't want to write too much about the history of the company even though I probably can dedicated several paragraphs to just that.
I am going off topic a little bit here so I am going to go back on topic and now write about some of the ways Mitsubishi Heavy Industries uses capital in their business. This is a key element for every investor to pay attention to when deciding whether they will buy shares of a stock or not. Since the company is a conglomerate it will be pretty straight forward, there's really nothing special about how they utilize capital, pretty much the same as other conglomerate companies. I wrote an idea about Berkshire Hathaway some time ago and I think that is a text book example of how an ideal conglomerate company would want to utilize capital. Mitsubishi is a little different though because they are actually an industrial company and not a financial company like Berkshire. So its like comparing apples to oranges essentially.
It would be safe to assume the business model for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is so incredibly complicated and need I say, unpredictable but I would also use words like reliable or necessary. Since I worked in heavy industries for along time I know it well and its easy for me to interpret the things I think will make the company money over a long period of time. I am starting to feel like it would make me bored to try and write about the specific elements of capital allocation now. In all seriousness I really just like the company and that's why I decided to write this idea today. I will probably keep exploring the Japanese stock market and might come up with more random ideas to share.
UPS 1W - delivery of a trend reversal is on the way?On the weekly chart, UPS is holding strong around the $82–90 support zone - a key level where buyers historically step in. The structure suggests the end of the long corrective channel and the potential start of a bullish reversal.
Technically, a confirmed breakout above the channel could trigger momentum toward $158, $176, and $202 - attractive targets for mid-term traders.
From a fundamental standpoint, UPS continues to streamline operations, improve automation, and prepare for peak season shipping. Growing e-commerce volumes and steady fuel costs may support stronger margins ahead. If earnings start to reflect these improvements, the stock could easily shift gears into a sustainable uptrend.
* UPS announced that it will report its Q3 results on October 28, 2025.
* The company is introducing increased seasonal charges and shipping rates starting October 26 ahead of the holiday season, which may temporarily reduce demand.
* UPS also announced plans to equip 5,000 of its trucks with air conditioning in the hottest regions of the US, a step to improve working conditions but at a cost.
* The high dividend yield (~7.5%) raises questions about sustainability, as the payout is almost equal to free cash flow.
Tactical play: as long as $82–90 holds, bulls have the initiative. Once the breakout is confirmed - the next big delivery might just be profits.
Searching for my entry in NVIDIA Significant resistance at $160, which if broken could lead to a drop to $140.
We will have to wait until February to see the results in terms of earnings (for my part, I expect it to continue to perform better than expected due to the high demand for the company's chips).
The world is driven by narratives, and no one wants to be left behind...
I haven't bought any yet, but I'll let you know when I do.
Pinterest | PINS | Long at $26.20Pinterest's NYSE:PINS continued user growth is quite impressive, especially among Gen Z. Factoring in global expansion, the revenue and earnings projections caught my attention. Currently trading around a 9x price-to-earnings, it's kind of a sleeper in the tech world *if* the user numbers and forecasts are accurate. Annual EPS is expected to almost double by 2028, going from $1.29 in 2024 to $2.46 in 2028. Projected revenue growth is almost the same, growing from $3.6 billion in 2024 to $6.3 billion in 2028. Also, the company has a very low Debt-to-Equity Ratio (4%) and very strong cash flow. Projections .
From a technical analysis angle, it's in a consolidation phase - trading sideways and confusing investors. The price is having a hard time staying above or below its historical mean, but there are plenty of gaps above and below the current price to fill. A company like NYSE:PINS can benefit significantly from AI utilization and capturing a share of the great wealth transfer, but the news is harping on a bad economy / reduced ad revenue.
Personally, this is one of those "why doesn't the price reflect the fundamentals" plays. Yes, there is competition, but the user growth continues to be impressive. Insiders are selling at an alarming rate ( openinsider.com ), though. Something doesn't add up. So, personally, a decision based on the numbers (as reported today) is the only way to go. Thus, at $26.20, NYSE:PINS is in a personal buy zone. If this ticker truly tanks and fishy company news emerges, it's going to drop near $12 or below.
Targets into 2028
$32.00 (+22.1%)
$50.00 (+90.8%)
UDMY turning profitable and in deep value territoryNASDAQ:UDMY stock has been left for dead. It's formed a massive falling wedge on the monthly chart and until late has done so with improving momentum.
While not strictly aligned to disciplined charting techniques I view the recent meltdown in momentum as capitulation and a good time to start a small position.
Looking at the annual and quarterly profit figures we can see the company has been bleeding cash for years, but in recent quarters is starting to make a small profit.
It's a speculative buy, so keep the position sizing small, but I think there's room to double or even triple with sufficient time.
Investment Grade VS High Yield AMEX:LQD is meeting the demand zone here. Looks like risk appetite will start to cool down from here. Flight to safety is starting to show signs.
With all the private credit out there I don´t think AI is the go to at this point in time. Gold is likely to be benefiting from this aswell as creditworthy companies.
High beta stocks is at a danger zone from my perspective.
BOJ´s rate hike could be the trigger on friday.
As always. This is not a financial advise. Always do your own research and investment decisions.
Head & Shoulders - IBOXX & Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFWhen things like investment grade bonds looks top (ish). That´s when you know it´s time to really start thinking about exiting. To me this is another sign of a bubble.
Investment grade is supposed to be the most safest bets after treasuries.
The BOJ will decided the markets faith on friday. Most likely the spreads of the US & Japan 2 year yields will come closer to equilibrium and that could very well trigger the carry trade.
Im on high alert this time around. Im scaling down on risk and will watch what happens on friday.
Gartner | IT | Long at $240.25Technical Analysis
The stock price for Gartner NYSE:IT recently fell below my selected "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines) and touched off the "major crash" area in August 2025. It's been consolidating since. This could signal a near-term bottom. However, if the next earnings aren't up to expectations, I foresee a tumble into the $180s. At a current P/E of 20x, a tumble that low (if long-term guidance remains high vs a near-term outlook is weak) would signal another personal entry.
Insider Trading
December 10, 2025, a Director purchased $9.9 million at $229.57.
In the last 6 months, more buying than selling.
openinsider.com
Growth
Annual EPS is expected to rise from $12.80 in 2025 to $15.03 by 2027 (+19.53%)
Revenue is expected to grown from $6.5 billion in 2025 to $7.2 billion is 2027 (+10.8%)
www.tradingview.com
Action
While there are near-term risks of further decline into the $180's, the recent $9.9 million insider purchase (plus the technical analysis and continued growth) makes me bullish for the longer-term. Thus, at $240.25, NYSE:IT is in a personal buy-zone with further entries possible if there is a drop (but long-term outlook is bullish).
Targets into 2028
$300 (+24.9%)
$329 (+36.9%)
Micron’s AI Pivot: A 2025 Strategic & Geopolitical AnalysisThe “AI Supercycle” has finally matured from a buzzword into a tangible balance sheet reality. As of mid-December 2025, Micron Technology (MU) stands at a critical inflection point. With the Federal Reserve lowering rates to 3.75% and the semiconductor industry grappling with an unprecedented divergence between enterprise boom and consumer stagnation, Micron has aggressively repositioned itself. The upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report on December 17 represents more than a financial update; it is a referendum on CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s high-stakes gamble on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Business Model Transformation: The Enterprise Pivot
Micron is executing one of the most radical structural pivots in its history. The decision to deprioritize, and in some regions effectively sunset, its consumer-facing Crucial brand by early 2026 signals a ruthless allocation of capital. Management has correctly identified that the consumer PC market is a low-margin drag. Instead, production capacity is being violently swung toward enterprise-grade DRAM and AI-centric storage. This moves Micron from a commodity volume player to a specialized, high-margin infrastructure partner for hyperscalers like Microsoft and AWS.
Technology & Innovation: The HBM Wars
Technological supremacy is now defined by the roadmap to HBM4. While SK Hynix initially led the HBM race, Micron’s aggressive rollout of HBM3E has closed the gap. The company’s 1-beta and upcoming 1-gamma nodes utilize extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography to deliver power efficiency metrics that rival Asian competitors. Patent analysis reveals a surge in filings related to 3D-stacking architecture and advanced packaging, confirming that Micron is building a defensive IP moat around its high-performance compute capabilities.
Geostrategy & Geopolitics: Navigating the Fracture
Micron operates on the fault line of the US-China chip war. The lingering effects of Beijing’s 2023 ban on Micron products have accelerated the company’s "China-Plus-One" strategy. In response, Micron has doubled down on domestic manufacturing, leveraging the US CHIPS Act to fund mega-fabs in New York and Idaho. This is not just expansion; it is geopolitical insurance. By embedding itself into the US national security apparatus, Micron mitigates the risk of losing Chinese market share while securing subsidized capital that lowers its long-term cost of production.
Macroeconomics: The Rate Cut Tailwind
The Federal Reserve’s cut to 3.75% this November provides a specific, quantifiable benefit to Micron. Semiconductor manufacturing is arguably the most capital-intensive industry on earth. Lower borrowing costs directly improve the Net Present Value (NPV) of Micron’s multi-billion dollar fab projects. Furthermore, a softer dollar environment boosts the competitiveness of US exports, providing a tailwind for Micron’s international revenue recognition in fiscal 2026.
Cybersecurity & Supply Chain Integrity
In an era of state-sponsored cyber espionage, hardware security is a premium feature. Micron has elevated its cybersecurity posture by securing ISO/SAE 21434 certification for automotive memory, a critical requirement for modern SDVs (Software-Defined Vehicles). This focus extends to the supply chain; rigorous "Zero Trust" protocols now govern raw material sourcing, addressing the vulnerabilities exposed by recent global logistics disruptions. This security-first branding allows Micron to charge a premium to defense and automotive clients who cannot afford compromised hardware.
Management & Leadership
Sanjay Mehrotra’s tenure has been defined by discipline. Unlike previous cycles where memory makers flooded the market, causing price crashes, current leadership has shown remarkable restraint in CapEx spending. The 2025 strategy focuses on "bit growth discipline"—matching supply strictly to demand. This oligopolistic behavior, shared tacitly by competitors, has successfully engineered a favorable pricing environment, driving gross margins back toward the 40%+ range.
Conclusion: The Verdict
Micron Technology in late 2025 is no longer just a cyclical memory stock; it is a derivative play on the AI infrastructure build-out. The risks—ranging from HBM yield issues to renewed geopolitical friction—are real. However, the company’s strategic withdrawal from low-margin consumer markets and successful capture of CHIPS Act incentives position it favorably. As investors look to December 17, the question is not if AI demand exists, but if Micron can manufacture fast enough to satisfy it.
LULU 1D - stretching into a comebackOn the daily chart of Lululemon Athletica (LULU), a clean AB=CD pattern is forming, signaling a potential end to the correction and the beginning of a new upward wave. The price has tested the strong buy zone between 164–167, aligned with a major daily support level and rising volume - a classic setup indicating that buyers are regaining control.
Technically , the structure is highly symmetrical, RSI shows a bullish divergence, and the 50-day moving average is starting to turn upward - all suggesting a possible trend reversal. The first upside target for this pattern is $230, followed by a second target at $340, which corresponds to the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.
From a fundamental standpoint, Lululemon remains a powerhouse in the premium activewear market, maintaining strong brand loyalty even amid competition from Nike and Alo. The company continues to expand its men’s line and footwear segment, which now accounts for over 25% of total revenue. International growth remains robust, with new stores opening in South Korea, the UAE, and Germany. Lululemon’s shift toward higher-margin online sales and more efficient logistics continues to strengthen its profitability.
In the latest quarterly report (September 2025), revenue grew by 9% year-over-year, and EPS came in above Wall Street expectations. High customer retention - over 90% repeat purchase rate - and stable gross margins create a solid foundation for a mid-term recovery in the stock.
Tactical plan: watch for entries within the 164–167 buy zone, consider partial profit-taking near $230, and target $340 if momentum extends. Just like in yoga, patience and balance lead to the best results.
Kalshi and Crypto.com Launch Coalition to Keep Prediction MarketIn a unified bid to secure federal regulatory supremacy, industry giants Kalshi and Crypto.com have launched an alliance, including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog, to form the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM).
In its announcement, the firms noted that the move is to defend the sector against a rising tide of state-level enforcement actions by cementing Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight as the sole standard.
Prediction Market is Rapidly Spreading Among Americans
The announcement highlighted the Prediction Market’s rapid growth and spread among the American public, serving as a tool for understanding the shifting economy, cultural, and political trends. According to Kalshi and Crypto.com, nearly half of the American under-45 population has engaged with an online prediction market, revealing the technology’s encroachment into the mainstream.
According to Matt David, Executive Board Member of the Coalition and President of North America & Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Crypto.com, the U.S. is the biggest frontier for prediction markets, and a unified industry voice for the region is necessary. David described the emerging industry as a new layer of civic infrastructure that gives people cleaner insight and helps institutions make clearer decisions.
Coalition Pushes Back on State Moves to Treat Event Contracts Like Gambling
Notably, there is a recent increase in the activity level within the prediction market, with several state casino regulators attempting to extend their authority on an industry previously governed by federal law.
The stakeholders believe that the emerging trend could create confusion, restrict customer access, and push Americans toward offshore or unregulated platforms. Therefore, the CPM aims to pursue a unified CFTC regulation for prediction markets across the American region.
Coalition Cites 2025 Volume Growth
Sara Slane, Executive Board Member of the Coalition and Head of Corporate Development at Kalshi, believes having a unified regulatory protocol will provide clarity for the industry. According to Slane, that has been Kalshi’s goal from the onset—a unified system that will promote nationwide regulatory consistency.
According to reports, prediction markets have repeatedly outperformed traditional polling by roughly 30%. As of October, the combined trading volume of the prediction markets in 2025 reached approximately $28 billion.






















