These data series are all available in the Trading View platform. Since the turn of the year the price of LQD, the investment grade corporate credit ETF, has declined nearly 10 points (-7.3%) and since early August is down 13 points (-10%). The important question is…. Why? Knowing how to monitor credit is an important skill, particularly since so many in the...
Bond yields often broadcast a pulse on global economic and geopolitical events long before the equities markets! Most market observers are already keeping 10yr Tsy yields on their radar, and of course the 3mth Bills/10yr Tsy spread as the key indicator of curve 'steepness' or 'inversion'. But especially as the Fed starts unloading bonds from its balance sheet,...
They are at their highest relative yield vs stocks in decades @ 2.71% and sitting on huge support. Stocks are still a short on any rally
A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price...
VIX has been spiking with TLT/LQD, but the last few times just seemed to help turn it around. Looks similar to the new year, in orange. Volatility has been exploding, per usual. Every 2 years since 2008, Vix has made a new support 3pts higher, shown in solid white. I just read an analyst saying 18 is likely the bottom for some time. TLT/LQD has also been on a...
With credit conditions starting to deteriorate currently,(mostly in Europe) high yielding debt will definitely be most negatively affected, especially after the first rate hikes from the Fed. Another great opportunity here to go short. The structure shows clearly a developing Wyckoff distribution similar to the one of Bitocin just before it crashed to 30k last May.
We held and dropped into a .618 and waves a x 1.1618 = wave C We will now see a major up move keep stops at 117.40best of trades WAVETIMER BTW THIS SHOULD BE RATHER BULLISH FOR STOCK INDEXES
I am seeing a collapse in high grade Corp debt based on fib relationships the focus point is all at 117/118 if we break this then I think the whole thing comes apart for everything .
HYG / LQD weekly chart shows a breakout above the March 2020 former broken support which was tested as resistance in March 2021 and could even be called a cup and handle. High Yield is commanded from this bonds because they are considered higher risk. So with all the geopolitical and rising rates concerns, this seems contrary and signals that we may be in a...
The chart posted you should keep an eye on as we pulled back to support at .382 of the rally from 2020 panic low in 3 waves down ABC decline
Do you buy spy or lqd right here? or do you sell spy and buy lqd. Vote
The idea is that some corporate bonds will get hurt next days/weeks. Increasing default rate as Free Cash Flow from operations is not growing enough to cover debt service.
The chart posted is give a clear warning of new issues that are close to coming out !
Idea for Credit: - Stocks had a bit of a reprieve as China's collapsing property firms were halted for 2 weeks, and China's markets had gone on holiday for Golden week. - Stock market had an unwinding of hedges last week, but are things really 'Back to Normal'? - The bond market does not think so, and seems to be presaging more drawdown to come. - EM High Yield...
Have to just wait and see. My ide is that we are in for a market top in late march 2022 and a very big bust there after.
No Folks Bonds are not Dead!!!, when 10YR yield is negative, these will look just fine!
Idea for LQD: - Investment Grade Credit possible Head & Shoulders. - Short PT 111. GLHF - DPT
corporate debt etf, mbb mortgage backed securities, and tlt treasuries all have similar price action. could the fear of inflation be hitting the debt markets and be the cause of future stocks sells offs as risk taking fades in both?