The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk.
While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets.
All of the last seven...
Positive expectations for the upcoming U.K. general elections could keep sterling supported throughout the session, especially if polls continue to confirm the Tories’ lead. A couple of medium-tier reports from the U.K weren't actually impressive. Monthly GDP was above the previous but QoQ and YoY were lower than previous no good changes. The construction site...
The USDCAD is displaying 2/3 market structure. There are only 3 ways markets move: uptrend, range and downtrend. These are composed of swings in the case of uptrend and downtrends.
The USDCAD has been in an uptrend, composed of higher lows and higher highs. We then began to exhaust as no new higher lows and higher highs were created. We are now in a range.
Price...
Chinese YUAN / USD pair touched the top of the falling wedge channel so if price drops we expect Gold/USD And Bitcoin/USD pairs to start an uptrend since the Chinese will exchange their YUANs to safe-havens like gold and Bitcoin.
Consider that Gold started its uptrend a few days ago.
S&P500 reaches a new ATH. However ISM/PMI Data out of the US speak a different language. After we have already witnessed a global slowing and contracting of the economy with many countries having PMIs under the 50 level for quite some time now, the US has now followed this trend that has been going on for over a year. PMIs again came in lower today and under the...
hey traders,
weekly update for dollar index.
the market has started a correction cycle and for the last two weeks, we see a steady bullish movement.
I still believe that bulls have much space to push the index even higher before we see a bearish continuation.
The first supply zone that I will pay my attention to is...
Hello Everyone!!!
I am Donald David Dongalore!
Earlier in the day, I had promised that I would provide some remedial education! I am doing this because I believe that there is a lack of literacy, with regard to the cryptocurrency space, in the arena of monetary policy and the effect that meddling with a money supply can have!
To fully understand what is...
Hello Everyone!
I am Donald David Dongalore!
This idea is less of a trade and more of a thesis about BTC!
As you can see here, there seems to be a heavy interest in continually increasing the M2 money supply, and by extension...all other money supplies!
The best part about BTC, is that it is finite! Meaning, that the more money that the Federal Reserve and...
"Markets took a break" the lack of high-profile news and frankly difficult weeks contributed to that yesterday.
GBP has tested 1.30 against the dollar. As we expected unsuccessfully since a successful test requires positive news from Britain. Johnson’s attempt to accelerate the negotiation process did not bring home the bacon. Parliament refused to re-vote on the...
This looks like a really good short opportunity, EURUSD is in a 4H/D downtrend so we will stay in short positions only until that primary trend changes. EURUSD looks like it will be moving up to Fibonacci resistance 0.236 (15min chart) technicals (ie RSI, Stoch RSI, and Momentum) all suggest a short term upward movement which purposes a nice entry for a short...
As I posted IXIC price movement speculation a year ago or so, now I want to warn you this is only one of the possibilities. As we kno the price movement can choose only between two dirrefent directions. Either up or down. But now it looks too good to be true to me. But this time is different. With all the world situation and economic war between US and most of the...
Since last Friday, the global market has been unable to recover from the sell-off after the fear of trade war has resurfaced. The reason for lack of meaningful bounce back is because Wall street and investors no longer believe in the magic of Trump Put after hearing from China denying they have called Trump. It is becoming evident to the US and global investors;...
Corrective Structure on AUDUSD that can lead to a nice impulse to the upper trendline. There are several economic factors that may boost this move also
Here is a chart of quarterly PCE growth, which gives another useful 'recession watch' indicator. It is currently at a critical level and worth keeping a close eye on.
Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley:
"With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the...
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