People are gonna hope again - BTC weekly update Aug 25 - 31thBitcoin is currently in Cycle Wave A, with Primary Wave B just beginning. For this Wave B, my primary expectation is a retracement toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the golden ratio. This level is particularly attractive because multiple factors converge here, which I will detail further in this analysis. Should price continue higher toward the next highlighted Fibonacci levels, the corresponding alternative scenarios would come into play. Compared with my previous analyses, I have adjusted the wave degrees, as this alignment fits the broader market context more accurately.
From a liquidity perspective, the liquidation heatmap shows a strong cluster of liquidity around the 0.618 retracement, making it a natural candidate for a trend reversal. Furthermore, this level aligns with the point of control (POC) of the prior wave, reinforcing its significance. When viewed through the lens of support and resistance, this area has historically triggered selling reactions, which further supports my primary scenario. The order book, however, remains relatively thin around the current price levels.
Derivative metrics add another layer of insight. Funding rates are currently elevated, suggesting an abundance of leveraged positions. Meanwhile, open interest has stagnated, which at this stage cannot be interpreted as strongly bullish or bearish.
In summary, my bias remains long, with a target at $117.5k. However, I do not recommend entering long positions at current levels, as an Elliott Wave-based approach advises setting a stop-loss 1% below the end of the preceding wave. Under this guideline, the current setup does not provide a favorable risk-reward ratio.
