Bitcoin – Wedge at Wave 5, Exhaustion Signals RisingBitcoin’s multi-year rally from the 2022 lows has unfolded in a clean Elliott Wave impulse. The structure now appears to be entering its terminal phase, with wedge-like price action and weakening momentum suggesting exhaustion.
Wave Structure:
Wave 1 rose from the November 2022 bottom at 15,479 to 31,035.
Wave 2 corrected to 24,920.
Wave 3 extended sharply to 73,794.
Wave 4 pulled back to 49,577.
Wave 5 has pushed into new highs, reaching 124,517 so far.
Although 124,517 is a candidate top, the internal structure still leaves room for one final minor push higher before Wave 5 is truly complete.
Wedge Formation & Exhaustion:
The advance in Wave 5 is taking the form of a wedge-like structure with higher highs , a setup often associated with ending diagonals. Such patterns are typically found in the 5th of 5th wave position, signalling the final stretch of a trend.
At the same time, the RSI is diverging — price is making new highs while momentum prints lower highs. This bearish divergence reinforces the case that the rally is losing strength, even as it grinds upward.
Correction Outlook:
When the Wave 5 top is confirmed , correction targets can be mapped using Fibonacci retracements and prior support zones. Until that point, exact downside levels remain open. What matters is the process: once the rally exhausts, retracements are expected to be swift, and the initial reaction will help define the corrective path.
Risk Management:
The bearish view applies only after Wave 5 is complete. A sustained break and continuation above 124,517 would suggest Wave 5 is extending further before exhaustion sets in. Traders should respect the possibility of one more thrust higher before the corrective phase begins.
Summary:
Bitcoin’s 5th wave is nearing completion, likely in the form of an ending diagonal. Price has made higher highs, but RSI divergence points to fading momentum. Once the Wave 5 top is confirmed, correction levels can be projected using Fibonacci tools and prior support zones. Until then, the market remains in its final push, with exhaustion signals growing louder.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
