Weather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific...
The El Niño weather phenomenon is back on the radar. A new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023.
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon with origins in abnormal...
The failed rebellion by the Wagner group over the June 24th weekend brought to light not only the ineptitude of the Russian top military command but also the carefully crafted image of President Putin as the guarantor of stability. Putin’s assertion that the quick end of the 24-hour revolt had shown the unity of Russians behind him was contradicted by footage of...
Cocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023).
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected....
The geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight. Wheat prices jumped 4%1 as news broke out that a major dam Kakhovka in southern Ukraine had been destroyed. This is not the first mishap with the dam, as both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning sabotage back in October 2022.
In Ukraine, flooding caused by the destroyed Kakhovka dam...
Sugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical...
