SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 26 of 2026 (29-03 JUN/JUL)SPY/SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Last Week's Recap
None of the scenarios outlined in last week's Weekly Market Outlook were triggered during the first half of the week, so we stayed patient and did not take any trades.
However, in the Mid Week Update, the updated analysis identified **Short Scenario 1**, which was triggered exactly as planned and resulted in a strong profitable trade.
Total trades: 1
Wins: 1
Outcome: Decent profit
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL LAST WEEK RECAP (WEEK OF JUNE 22–26)
Week 25 of 2026 marked another deep green week for UA CAPITAL, extending our streak to 12 consecutive profitable weeks . We have now gone the entire year without a single red week.
Markets began the week trading near all time highs with a bullish tone. Since the Risk Index was still signaling a risk on environment, our initial Weekly Market Outlook focused exclusively on long opportunities for both SPY and QQQ.
We also had an important catalyst approaching, with both the MU earnings report and the PCE inflation data scheduled for later in the week. Our MU swing position had already been established two weeks earlier, and in the Weekly Market Outlook we explained that the position would likely be managed and closed around Wednesday or Thursday depending on price action.
For the PCE release, we prepared three separate scenarios covering outcomes above expectations, in line with expectations, and below expectations. Each scenario included a clear execution plan and position management framework shared with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk.
Our first long position from the Weekly Market Outlook was stopped out on Tuesday. At the same time, the Risk Index shifted aggressively from risk on into a short term bearish regime.
Immediately after that transition, I notified the Trading Desk through the private chat that we had begun positioning for downside exposure across the major indices.
On Wednesday, our Mid Week Update introduced a completely new trading framework Short Scenario 1 was triggered almost perfectly, allowing us to short both SPY and QQQ through put options with excellent execution.
Despite a positive premarket rally on Wednesday, the Risk Index algorithm had already shifted decisively into a short term bearish bias. Trading desk members were warned to begin looking for short exposure while becoming significantly more selective with any new long positions.
Once markets opened, Nasdaq futures dropped nearly 3%, where I was already carrying short futures exposure. My SPY put positions were closed after approximately a 6.5 point decline, while my QQQ puts were closed following roughly a 14.5 point move lower.
Together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk, we generated profitable trades across both the futures and options markets during the selloff.
Thursday brought another major opportunity as MU reported earnings. The July 24 $100 call options that I purchased for roughly $90 were sold around $266, generating an approximate 195% return. This entire swing trade, from entry through position management and exit, was shared live with trading desk.
Overall, the week demonstrated exactly why adaptability matters. Our initial long exposure early in the week was stopped as planned. Once the Risk Index detected the shift in market structure, we quickly transitioned into short exposure and captured strong profits across futures and options. Combined with the 195% return on the MU swing trade, it was another exceptional week for the Trading Desk.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short-term bearish bias . As a result, further downside and lower prices remain possible over the near term. However, the longer term structure continues to remain firmly risk on , meaning we can continue looking for bullish reactions once price reaches our higher probability demand zones.
Our approach this week is straightforward: capitalize on short term bearish momentum while remaining prepared to buy quality bounce zones once confirmation appears.
Scenarios / Strategies
Chop Zone
The 743.5–731.5 range is currently defined as our primary Chop Zone.
Within this area, I expect price to remain highly indecisive as buyers and sellers fight for control. Since the probability of false breakouts and poor risk to reward increases significantly inside this range, I do not intend to initiate new positions while price remains within the Chop Zone.
Short Scenario
Trigger: A confirmed breakdown below the Chop Zone with a daily close below 731.5.
Targets: 723.5 → 716.5 → 710
Invalidation: Daily close above 743.5.
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (723.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish candle close back above the zone.
Targets: 731 → 739
Invalidation: Daily close below 716.5.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (710) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish candle close back above the zone.
Targets: 716.5 → 723.5 → 731
Invalidation: Daily close below 703.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss.
Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long
Long
Coinbase Breaks Below Support as Bearish Wave 5 Gains TractionCoinbase has staged a notable recovery from the 141 low, but the structure of the advance suggests caution is still warranted. The move higher appears to be unfolding in three waves, which is typically characteristic of a corrective rally rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
This interpretation is supported by the preceding decline from the 400 area, which was strong, impulsive, and extended—traits commonly associated with a third-wave decline in Elliott Wave theory. As such, the current recovery may represent a wave four correction within a larger bearish sequence rather than a lasting trend reversal.
The stock has also been testing an important resistance zone between 210 and 250. While price remains within this area, the risk of another bearish turn remains elevated. More recently, Coinbase has broken below the lower trendline support near the 180 level, increasing the probability that wave five lower is now underway.
From a bullish perspective, it is still too early to declare the downtrend complete. A break above 291 would be needed to invalidate the current bearish wave count, as wave four should not overlap with wave one territory. Such a move would signal that the broader bearish trend is likely over and would shift the focus toward buying opportunities on future pullbacks.
Highlights:
Current rally appears corrective and is unfolding in three waves.
Key resistance zone between 210 and 250 remains important.
Break below 180 signals increased risk of bearish continuation.
A move above 291 would provide stronger bullish confirmation. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025
Chart Context:
Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools:
1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom)
2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions**
* Key Levels and Zones:
* **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100
* **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600
* **Resistance & TP Zones:**
* TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%)
* TP2: **6,840** (-27%)
* TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence)
Technical Observations:
* SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory.
* The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits.
* The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally.
* The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels.
Fundamental Context:
* US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky.
* The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations.
* Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**.
* However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks).
Narrative Bias & Scenarios:
**Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)**
* If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to:
* 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone
* 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone
* These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond.
* **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins.
**Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)**
* If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft:
* SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128)
* Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840)
* Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)**
* **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation.
Indicators Used:
* 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions)
* Trendlines (macro and local)
* Confluence mapping
Philosophical/Narrative Layer:
This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing?
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish with caution
* Strategy:
* Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries
* Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds
* Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits
Related Reference Charts:
* BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias:
* TOTAL:Bullish Bias
*TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias:
* US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
Long
Volatility in Equity IndicesThe equity index futures complex has exhibited a highly dynamic and volatile landscape over the past two weeks, defining a stark divergence between large-cap core benchmarks and small-cap segments. The E-mini S&P 500 and the tech-heavy E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures both weathered a sudden, sharp technical correction during the first full week of June, driven by algorithmic long liquidation that forced ES down to local support near 7,292 and dragged NQ down into a temporary demand zone. Boosted by a substantial cooling in inflation pressures and broad cooling in treasury yields, both markets launched an impressive V-shaped recovery to reclaim their short-term moving averages, with the ES staging a massive 2.3% rally to claw back toward the 7,600 handle.
In stark contrast to the large-cap recovery, the E-mini Russell 2000 futures market underwent an exceptionally volatile, macro-driven cycle. While RTY tapped a monthly high near 2,954, its upside remained heavily capped by lingering corporate borrowing concerns, forcing the contract into a choppy, wide consolidation pattern. Ultimately, as the front-month June contracts head directly into their final expiration, the multi-asset price action underscores a market where tech-driven large caps remain highly favored, while small caps continue to absorb localized index frictions and shifting macroeconomic headwinds.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY continues to trade in a structurally mixed but stable environment as short-term momentum attempts to recover while longer-term trend alignment remains intact.
Structure
The 10 EMA and 20 EMA have flattened and are currently holding steady, reflecting a pause in short-term directional momentum.
The 50 EMA and 200 EMA continue trending upward, suggesting the broader trend structure remains intact despite recent weakness.
Price has continued trading above the Value Area High (VAH) since April 15th, 2026, maintaining acceptance above a key volume-based reference level.
Momentum & Participation
RSI is currently 52.96, showing improving momentum while remaining in a neutral zone.
OBV continues to show an upward curvature, suggesting participation has improved from recent lows.
Momentum has stabilized, but confirmation of sustained strength remains a developing process.
Educational Note 📚
The Value Area High (VAH) represents the upper boundary of the price range where roughly 70% of trading volume occurred during the selected period.
When price remains above the VAH for an extended period, it can suggest that market participants are accepting prices above the area where most prior transactions occurred. This does not predict future direction, but it can provide insight into how buyers and sellers are positioning relative to a historically important volume zone.
What I'm Watching 👀
How price behaves around the current 10 and 20 EMA cluster.
Whether the Value Area High is revisited and how price responds if tested.
Whether RSI can continue strengthening toward the 60 area or begins to stall.
Whether OBV continues its upward trajectory, supporting improving participation.
At the moment, longer-term trend structure remains intact while short-term momentum works through a stabilization phase. Monitoring participation and momentum behavior around these key levels remains important.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. The goal is to observe how price interacts with important areas of interest rather than anticipate a specific outcome. Johnson & Johnson Update: Wave 4 Correction Nearing CompletionAs discussed on November 14, 2025, Johnson & Johnson was still tracking an extended wave 3 structure with further upside potential. Since then, price has turned lower and retraced more deeply than initially expected, but the move still appears corrective rather than a trend reversal.
The current decline continues to respect key trendline support from the June 2025 lows, suggesting the pullback is likely part of a higher-degree wave 4 correction, potentially unfolding as a complex WXY structure. From a broader perspective, the larger bullish impulse from early 2025 still appears incomplete, leaving room for a possible final wave 5 to the upside once the correction completes. Key support is now seen at 215–225, with deeper support at 210–200 (38.2% retracement).
Highlights
. Pullback still looks counter-trend, complex WXY correction
. Key support zone at 215–225
. Next support near 210-200 (38.2%)
. Bullish wave five still possible on higher timeframe 
Long
SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY remains in a constructive trend environment despite today's pullback, with the broader moving average structure continuing to hold.
The 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs remain positively aligned
Price continues to trade above all major moving averages, keeping the larger trend structure intact
While short-term momentum has weakened, the overall trend remains constructive until key support areas begin to fail
Momentum conditions have cooled:
RSI is currently near 49, reflecting a notable loss of short-term momentum following the recent decline
The move from overbought conditions back toward the midpoint suggests momentum is being reset rather than fully rebuilt
OBV has begun to pause, showing slight downward pressure, though participation has not yet deteriorated into a meaningful distribution phase
This creates a structure where trend remains constructive, but momentum and participation warrant closer monitoring.
What I'm Watching 👀
Whether RSI can stabilize and begin rebuilding from current levels
If OBV can hold recent gains or begins showing deeper signs of distribution
How price reacts around the rising 10, 20, and 50 EMA support cluster
Whether participation returns on any recovery attempt or continues to weaken
At the moment, the broader trend remains intact, but momentum has clearly cooled. The next clues will likely come from how RSI and OBV behave as price interacts with key support areas.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. MSTR and BTC Wave Structures Signal Further Downside RiskMicroStrategy (MSTR) has experienced a deep retracement from its 2024 highs, declining by more than 80%, which reflects the extreme pessimism now embedded in the market. Typically, such large drawdowns can precede a reversal phase, and so far the structure does show three clear waves down from the peak. However, the subsequent rebound into the 200 area appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting it may represent a fourth wave within a broader bearish sequence rather than a trend reversal. If the current flag structure breaks to the downside on a daily close, it would open the door for a potential fifth wave decline toward the 100 level.
Bitcoin is also showing weakness due to a positive correlation with Microstrategy. It's declining impulsively along with MSTR after a three-wave corrective recovery. We could see another decline this year. If that happens, the key support remains around the 50k-48k area.
Adding to sentiment pressure, MicroStrategy recently sold 32 Bitcoin. While the amount is relatively small in the context of its holdings, it may still carry a psychological impact on market participants given the company’s historically strong association with aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY continues to maintain one of the most constructive trend structures on the chart, with price holding above all major moving averages.
The 10, 20, 50, and 200 EMAs are all trending higher
The EMA stack remains fully aligned, reflecting strong trend participation across multiple time horizons
Price continues to trade above key moving averages, keeping the broader structure intact
Momentum conditions remain supportive:
RSI is currently near 74, holding in the upper range while maintaining slight upward momentum
Elevated RSI readings continue to reflect strong participation, though monitoring for signs of exhaustion remains important
OBV continues to show constructive progress, suggesting accumulation and participation remain supportive of the current trend
This combination of trend alignment, momentum, and participation continues to support a healthy structural backdrop.
What I'm Watching 👀
Whether SPY can continue holding above the rising 10/20 EMA cluster on any short-term pullbacks
If the 50 EMA continues to accelerate higher, reinforcing broader trend alignment
Whether RSI can maintain strength without developing meaningful bearish divergence
Continued confirmation from OBV as price pushes near recent highs
At the moment, structure remains constructive, with trend, momentum, and participation largely moving in the same direction. Monitoring how price responds to any periods of consolidation or pullback remains important as extension conditions continue to develop.
⭐ Final Clarity Note ⭐
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. Is the Bond Market Starting to Call the BluffDespite persistent concerns around inflation, deficits, and Treasury issuance, TLT has quietly reclaimed its 50-day moving average and begun establishing a series of higher highs and higher lows.
If inflation expectations continue to moderate, the bond market may be signaling that rates have less upside than many investors believe.
The next area I’m watching is resistance near 86. A break above that level would strengthen the case that long-duration Treasuries are beginning to price a different macro environment.
Key assets to watch alongside TLT
Crude Oil (inflation expectations)
Treasury Yields (TNX)
U.S. Dollar (DXY)
Together they may provide a clearer picture of where rates head next.
One of the ways I view markets is through the relationship between asset classes rather than in isolation.
Crude oil is a good example. When oil prices rise, investors often begin to reassess inflation expectations. If inflation is expected to remain elevated, Treasury yields can move higher, which tends to create pressure on long-duration bonds such as TLT.
Conversely, if oil prices begin to cool, inflation expectations may ease as well. That can support lower yields and improve the outlook for long-duration Treasuries.
This is one reason I have been paying close attention to TLT’s recent strength. After reclaiming its 50-day moving average, the bond market may be signaling that inflation expectations are becoming more contained than many investors anticipated.
While no single asset tells the entire story, I believe monitoring crude oil, Treasury yields, and TLT together can provide valuable insight into where the broader macro environment may be headed.
Educational information not to be used as financial or investment advice 
Education
SPY Structure Update (Daily Chart)SPY continues to maintain constructive structure as price holds above all major moving averages following the April recovery phase.
The 10 & 20 EMAs remain positively sloped, continuing to reflect sustained short-term momentum
The 50 EMA has continued turning higher, reinforcing intermediate trend support
The 200 EMA remains steadily upward sloping, keeping broader structure intact
Price is currently trading above the major volume concentration zone, showing continued acceptance away from prior high-volume positioning.
Momentum conditions remain constructive overall:
RSI continues holding in the upper range, showing sustained participation without a major momentum breakdown
OBV remains elevated and structurally healthy, suggesting participation has not meaningfully deteriorated
This remains a structurally healthy trend environment, though price is beginning to move further away from key support clusters.
What I’m Watching 👀
Whether SPY can continue holding above the rising 10/20 EMA cluster during short-term pullbacks
If the 50 EMA continues accelerating higher, strengthening broader trend alignment
Whether RSI can maintain constructive positioning without significant bearish divergence
How price behaves relative to the current high-volume area below, which may act as an important structural support zone on retracements
At the moment, trend structure remains constructive, but monitoring participation and momentum behavior near recent highs remains important as extension conditions continue developing.
⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️:
This is a structure-based observation, not a prediction — focused on trend alignment, momentum behavior, participation, and liquidity positioning across key structural levels. GOLD PULLBACK subbing 4000 usd/oz- strong bearish momentum
Gold peaked on 5600/oz in a form of a wick, then fell to 4600/oz leaving delusional bulls in disbelief, made second top at 5400/oz which was followed by 4100/oz move.
Such liquidity made there was enough to hype the market to some point, while retail traders bought at very top/near expecting another surge which didn't happen', neither it will until fractal pattern unfolds entirely.
Friday price closure was hyped to 4890/oz, made double top there, the point which is actually lower high and it will collide further in a descending channel shown on the graph.
Overbought big time
MACD bearish on higher timeframes
StochRSI peaked too 1W,1M,3M and bending down.
During a time of crisis, precious metals are only safe haven, because they are resistant to inflation, erosion of any kind.
Money can be printed endlessly, while gold, silver, copper can't be made in a laboratory no matter how advanced today technology seems.
However, it is a cycle as any other, it has it's start and it's ending.
Started at 1287 usd/oz in April 2019, made 45 percent surge to around 2150 and dropped.
Current price range is unsustainable at this price range from technical perspective and the only scenario is further fractal deterioration and subbing 4000usd/oz mark.
Do not invest in gold and silver at this point, because you will "drop" with your assets.
Do not listen to media, retail, other "experts", self proclaimed gurus, influencers and everyone else who is making noise over nothing because 99.99 percent of people doesn't have a clue about price range, price action, fractal geometry and math behind it.
Short
Tesla: Bullish Structure Still Intact After 30% PullbackTesla (TSLA) has experienced a sharp pullback of nearly 30% from recent highs, yet the internal structure of the decline does not currently appear impulsive. Instead, price action continues to resemble a corrective phase rather than the start of a sustained bearish trend.
The updated wave analysis points toward a potential seven-swing corrective structure, which is typical of complex consolidations within larger uptrends. This retracement is approaching the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci zone measured from the April 2025 lows, an area that often acts as a high-probability support region in ongoing bullish cycles.
Price behavior around this zone is becoming increasingly important. Tesla has already shown signs of recovery, attempting to move out of a corrective channel, which suggests early confirmation that buyers are re-entering the market. This aligns with the idea that the “yellow box” support area is currently being respected.
From a broader perspective, there remains a possibility of another upward leg forming, potentially developing into wave C of wave five within an ending diagonal pattern visible on the weekly timeframe. This would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure, but would require confirmation through continued upside momentum.
However, risk remains on the downside. A decisive break below 260, especially if accompanied by accelerating selling pressure, would significantly weaken the bullish interpretation. In that scenario, it would suggest that the ending diagonal structure may already be complete, opening the door for a deeper correction toward 200, and in an extended bearish case, even toward 150.
Key Points:
-Current decline appears corrective rather than impulsive (likely a seven-swing structure)
-Price is reacting around the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone
-Recovery from support suggests early bullish response within the correction
-Break above 390 would confirm continuation of the bullish rebound scenario
-Drop below 260 would shift bias bearish, targeting 200–150 range
Overall, Tesla is sitting in a critical decision zone where the next directional move could define whether this is a continuation of the broader uptrend or the beginning of a deeper corrective phase. 
Long
eBay: Potential Exhaustion Zone After Five-Wave RallyeBay has seen a very nice recovery since February lows, where we turned bullish on this stock, but notice that now we can count five waves up from that area, coming out of the corrective channel in a wave four. This suggests that the bullish trend could sooner or later come to an end, ideally around the 110 to 115 area, where we also see the upper side of an Elliott wave impulsive channel.
So be aware of a potential slowdown here. Of course, it could still be just another temporary pause, but if the price breaks below 95.85, then it would suggest that at least a temporary top is in place and that a deeper correction could follow. For those who own the stock, it may not be a bad idea to be more aggressive with stops or even start collecting some profits.
Highlights
. Five-wave move up from February lows suggests mature trend
. Resistance zone between 110 and 115
. Bearish level at 95.85, break opens room for deeper correction
. Consider tighter stops or partial profit taking 
Short
Loss Distribution and the Illusion of ProgressPerformance in trading is rarely destroyed by a single trade. It is usually degraded by a pattern that develops quietly over time.
That pattern is the imbalance between losses and gains.
Many traders maintain a reasonable win rate and still struggle to grow their account. The issue is not the number of winning trades. It is how losses are distributed relative to those wins.
Small, controlled losses are manageable. They allow the equity curve to remain stable and give the strategy space to express its edge. Large or inconsistent losses interrupt that process. They require disproportionate recovery and distort the overall distribution of results.
This is where the illusion of progress appears.
A trader may experience several winning trades in a row, building confidence and gradually increasing exposure. When a loss occurs, it is often larger than the previous ones, either because size increased or because discipline weakened. That single loss erases multiple gains.
The account appears active. The trader feels engaged. But the equity curve remains flat or declines slowly
This is not a problem of strategy. It is a problem of loss control.
Losses must remain consistent.
Consistency in this context does not mean avoiding losses. It means ensuring that every loss behaves within predefined limits, regardless of recent performance or market conditions. When this stability is present, recovery remains linear and manageable.
When it is absent, recovery becomes increasingly difficult.
Another layer to this issue is frequency. Increasing the number of trades without improving their quality introduces additional exposure to randomness. Even small losses, when repeated frequently in suboptimal conditions, accumulate into meaningful drawdowns.
The objective is not to maximize activity.
It is to maintain a stable distribution where losses remain contained and winners are allowed to develop without being offset by irregular risk.
Progress in trading is rarely visible in individual trades. It becomes visible in how smoothly the equity curve develops over time.
That smoothness is built on controlled losses, not occasional large gains. JPMorgan Pullback Reaches Key Support ZoneJPMorgan Chase & Co. is one of the largest and most influential financial institutions in the world. Headquartered in New York, the bank operates across investment banking, asset management, commercial banking, and consumer financial services. As a major component of the global financial system, JPMorgan’s stock often reflects broader sentiment in the financial sector and the overall economy.
From a technical perspective, JPMorgan is currently experiencing a healthy pullback after its strong prior advance.
The stock is pulling back nicely after extending lower following a retest of the channel resistance from the outside around 325, a level we discussed previously. That rejection confirmed the resistance area and triggered the current corrective move.
At the moment, price action appears to be unfolding within wave C of the correction, which is part of a broader A-B-C retracement structure. Importantly, the stock is now testing the key support zone between 280 and 290. This level is technically significant because it also aligns with the February 2025 high, making it a strong former resistance that could now act as support.
If the current three-wave decline represents a higher-degree wave four correction, the market may be approaching the later stages of the retracement. Should support hold, this zone could become a foundation for a potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
For traders and investors watching the chart closely, 280–290 stands out as the first major area where bullish reactions could appear.
Highlights:
Three-wave retracement appears to be nearing completion
Price is testing a key support zone between 280–290
Area aligns with the February 2025 high, strengthening the level
Current levels may offer an attractive buying opportunity if the trend resumes 
Long
