Our options metrics show an extended market due to the amount of positive gamma. There is significant open interest at the 3150 level which we do not see being rolled higher (yet) due to both the FOMC and tariff deadlines over the next weekend. Just as what happened on Monday/Tuesday we think that any put buying could cause a move down in the market as dealers...
Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB .
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Well, we hit my 3130 target from earlier this week, not the way I expected obviously. Back tested the old channel line.
RSI overbought, MFI divergence, which is bearish. Not chasing this rally. At the same time, any news can happen over the weekend.
The probabilities of remaining in the current weekly range are increasing as we approach the Friday Opex. Capturing a realistic portion of the Thursday range will be easier if we pin point this week's POC in terms of volume and the recent average daily ranges. We'll keep in mind that this week we witnessed the 1st 1%+ gap down for SPY since August, which should be...
S&P500 is close to a strong zone of resistance 3130 - 3160.
I will be looking for a reversal formation inside this zone to short the market
expecting the retracement to the support of a rising channel.
*don't trade aggressively and act only after the confirmation.
Our options metrics show that a range of 310/315 in the SPY is setup here as the market moves into several events Mid - December. We view the selloff earlier this week led by put buying which moved the market lower. Movement below 310 or above 315 may well be pressed back into the box until we move closer to the 12/15 tariff date. We calculate overall market gamma...
spy is trading within a strong zone of supply.
I will short the market only after a bearish breakout of a minor rising channel.
It will be a "compulsory" confirmation on so strong bullish market.
target levels have been adjusted:
T1 - 3050
T2 - 3000
stop will be strictly above the highest point of the channel.
After employment report we got a very strong move so here is my thinking.
Above 3138 we go to 3144 minimum, and below 3127 we spend the day chopping in that distribution.
This could be a great impulse to play off of so will be leaning long on almost every dip.
over night action started balanced inside yesterday then made a little gaping move higher so a retrace to 3114 and then continuing up is one decent idea. I do see 3117 as a import support between 2 distributions.
If we break above 3125 I can see us heading for the blue box target area.
So today becomes a day the bull get to decide if the day session ATH is going...
Bulls Not to Celebrate, Yet!
While yesterday's daily close of 3112.76 was above our models' reference level of 3110, the price action was not strong enough and the models have rejected it as any indication of the bulls' strength. This leaves our models in an indeterminate mode where neither the bulls nor the bears have any advantage.
Structurally, the bullish...
The SPX was due for a pullback, we had anticipated the move lower before a pop would be more extended than it was and it was driven on trade news. We did, however, curl back into the wedge that was broken and use it as support before slightly rallying throughout the past few sessions. It did not seem like the downside was over after Monday, considering we saw an...
This Run-away Bull May Not Stop As Long As...
This run-away bull market may not stop or even slowdown as long as everyone and their grandma is predicting it. Individual investors' sentiment is less bullish and more bearish than historic average, and it should be a cause for concern for bears, as the markets typically tend to go against the retail investor...
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EW count of price using fib levels from 1974 to present.
Quarter closing tgt $3130-$3150
Black Swan could bring recession early causing quarter to close far below target.
Havent come across are clearer indicator than this. Matches up perfectly with market bottoms in 2003 and 2008. Clearly defined and looks like a small breakout. It appears December 18 may have been the bottom and beginning of a new positive trend. Hard to argue with this ratio.