I SPY the End of a Trend With the market closed on Friday we were left with watching the crypto markets take a dip in a less than dramatic fashion. Only left to wonder what the the stock market would have done! For a while I've been beating the drum that Bitcoin is an excellent leading indicator of the markets so it's not farfetched to think that the stock market would have dropped a bit today. I'll speak more on how Bitcoin is a leading indicator on a separate post.
Here we have the AMEX:SPY . What follows is some basic Elliot wave and classical charting to assess the next market move.
Image 1 : Here I want to know whether both impulses up are equal. We can see using the trend based fib extension that the SPY has yet to tap the 0.88 Fibonacci suggesting potential of further upside.
Image 2: On image two, using a small timeframe, 15 min, we see a simple rising wedge formation. Normally seen when trends are stretching out and are nearing their end. I included RSI to show a normal bearish divergence.
Image 3 : Putting it all together, the SPY appears to be completing a Zig Zag (5-3-5) correction. If you look closer at the ending diagonal there could be some more price action to the upside before a pull back.
From my perspective the overall trend remains down as this was a corrective move to the upside. More to come in future posts from a high timeframe perspective!
Etfs
XOP ETF at a historical extreme!The XOP ETF has been shattered and we have gone below levels back to 2008-09 on our Short Term Oscillator. This sets up a potential snap back rally as the rubber band has been stretched to the downside to an extreme level. We don't give financial advice so please do your own research.
The Short Term Bottom Almost Here!We posted this chart back on Feb 28th (see related ideas chart) and we said that we were looking for the number of stocks below their 200 DMA to hit the lows of 2018 before we see a Short Term Bottom. We are now in this area as you can see in the chart (white parallel lines). We are now looking to put Long trades on over the next 1-3 days.
Russell 2000 - Long playPrice stopped (1) right at Pivot S1 and (2) just above Fib 0.876. RSI is also aligned with previous bottom. If a multi-day uptrend happens from here, the 3x ETF will gain more than 3x by the end of the trend due to positive compounding. If choppy volatility instead continues in both directions, then holding IWM would have been the better bet. Survey: Which would you buy here - TNA or IWM?
TQQQ ETF Oscillator still declining despite price bouncing!We have overlapped our oscillator on top of price and our oscillator is still declining despite the bounce from the last few days. This will not last long so either price catches down to the oscillator or price needs to explode higher to pull the oscillator higher.
What we're looking for to suggest a bottom is in!Crashes occur when markets are already oversold so there could be more downside from here. One of the indicators we look at is the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average to determine if we've hit a short term bottom. As you can see in the chart we entered 2 lines where stocks could be considered extremely oversold. There isn't one indicator that can tell us when the market bottoms exactly but we can look at the overall number of stocks above their 200 dma as a good tell that a rally could be imminent. Let us know what you think.
VXX ETF Hits Price Target!We wrote an article on our website and posted here on TradingView that the VXX looked ready for a big move to the upside. The VXX has hit the price target we suggested at $22. A more detailed analysis of this trade is on our website titled "Trading ETFs While Volatility Explodes Higher".
UVXY - 100% retrace up - Corona Virus is the catalystBeen watching this for months and the catalyst is finally here. Italy reported today that there was a lot of new cases found there and this naturally scared the markets. More china supply slowdown will only increase the odds we hit 100% from the local bottom. I'm going to stagger sell above 50% returns.
COLD WAR 2.0 / WW3 / NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST investingThis is what a market bottom could look like.
Currently some nice rsi bullish div. Looking like it is in a bull flag. Appear to have had our capitulatory move. Fundamentally speaking we are working our way to the end of the world so we can see a catalyst like a nuclear arms race or world war breaking out. Is this chart the hourglass for humanity?
If we break the green line and can close above $11.74 this is my buy signal and the hour glass will begin.
Stop loss will be if we break the low at $10.
10% risk for possible 10x reward IMO.
Significant levels are the white lines.
Doomsday clock in a chart.
Like and follow if you don't wanna die.
G-D HELP US
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary
• TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern.
• Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel.
• Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts.
Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend.
A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets.
Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment.
Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
A scaled entry plan for SOXLOne of the best long-term performers in the stock market is the semiconductor sector. With a strong likelihood that AI will change the world in the next 10-20 years and disrupt every other industry, there are big profits to be made in semiconductor companies that are heavily invested in AI research and provide the processors to power it.
That said, the current price point on SOXL is pretty high, so it makes sense to look for a lower entry. With the market (and especially the Nasdaq) turning downward this week on China trade war news, I've developed a scaled entry plan for SOXL. There are four entry points: the recent highs around 198, the high-volume node at 159, and the recent lows near 131 and 90. Normally I triple my position at each level, but I doubt we'll hit the bottom two targets on the current trade war news, so I'm weighting my entries a little more toward the two upper ones. I already made my first entry this morning near 198.
Semiconductors bounced downward from top of parallel channelSOXX has been making two parallel channels, and the other day it bounced off the top of the blue one. It's still within the green channel, however, so it's approaching a decision point soon where it will have to choose one or the other. If the fall continues, there could be a good buying opportunity near the bottom of the green channel and an even better buying opportunity near the bottom of the blue one. SOXX and its leveraged counterpart SOXL are my favorite trading instruments, so you best believe I'm going to be watching this closely.