If presidential elections in France are won by supporters of Frexit, euro can open with a gap down, with further movement down to support level.
As posted earlier today on my telegram (t.me) I'm currently short from just above 116 with targets at 115.500 followed by 115. We see a bearish divergence together with structure and trend line coinciding. We do have a fibonacci 0.382 at 116 level aswell. While posting this I see we're breaking the "V" low of the double top which gives us yet another signal.
Price put in a double top, failing to close above 38.2 fib of X - A. In conjunction with fibonacci, and the double top, we have a strong monthly support and resistance area which could help us with this short. I see high probability in this one, I am not looking for extended target(s) this time. As we could, potentially, look at a bullish (temporary?) release...
We use the resistance level. Sale in the expectation that the level will not be broken. Buy at the breakdown level.
Price action has not yet told me to go long, and since there still are bearish signals to this I'm sticking to my initial target of 120.000. So far we have managed to bag 150 pips during the last 7 days from this bearish fall. Lets see if we can continue this pip-hunt, all the way to target! Before I start to consider a bullish approach, I need to see a break...
Continuing bearish outlook as a follow up on last weeks successful entry () Basing this on price action struggling to close above 121.350 - 0.382 fib of X-A IF we break out above, we will possibly find another opportunity to get short around 121.800 - 122.0 area. Final target - 120.000
Following up on last weeks successful prognosis () I now enter a short position, aiming for 1.0620 with first target at 1.0700. This is could however be a decision point for entering a strong bullish move , but I use the double top forming at B (see historically strong point at Z) before we make that move upwards. Tight stop loss on this one, as a break above...
We are in a downtrend technically and fundamentally.
Completed ABCD with close BELOW falling trendline. Ive been eyeballing this area for some time. My targets are as shown on chart. Lets see if we can pull some pipage out of this. If, however, we break and close above I will look for long entry. Entered at 122.279 Stops above previous high
We have run into two different things here. Firstly we have the 1.0700 psychological level where price seems to have found resistance. Secondly, we have a 61.8% fibonacci retracement of Z to X. Combined with these two we are currently in overbought condition. I'm looking to profit from this breather with a rather tight/risky stop loss.
EURUSD has rallied to 1.07 on the back of strong USD data and a mildly hawkish Draghi. Fundamentally this should be trading at 1.05 or below. Even if Draghi raises rates, the rate differential between EU and USA will keep rising. Short this baby and add to position if it gets to 1.0750, 1.08.
10 year yields. 2.30% level has been very supportive. Breakout of the wedge will mean uptrend will continue. Fundamentally this is supported by higher term premia being demanded, and Chinese flight capital leaving the UST market. I'm long USD and will add to my positions if 10 year yields really start to move a lot higher.
Basing this setup on: Violated support -signal Violated trendline -signal Structure resistance - adding to our entry Trendline resistance - adding to our entry 0.618 fib retracement - adding to our entry Moderately conservative target, above previous low - Trend continuation
Basing this entry on the following clues: ABCD completion Double top with bearish divergence at D completion Spinning top Falling trendline just above double top and D completion Previous support and resistance area Psychological number 120.000 Target conservative 0,382 fib of C-D Lets see how we do
If the Euro rallies this week up to 1.7000, I will swing sell it immediately. Supply zone near an extremely strong bearish daily trendline point AND it's the 0.786 point on the Fibonacci indicator.
My clues, X-A 61.8% fibo reversal 1.618 fib extension Overbought condition Trend line resistance We also have historical support and resistance zone within stop loss. Target 1 - 0.382 fib of the leg Target 2 - historical support and resistance zone, just above 0.618 fib of the leg. If, however... Plan B, if break and close above the falling trend line, I will...
Opportunity to get short with structure + fibo based entry. We're running into previous support which could act as resistance. Adding to the case we're hitting 0.618 fib. Adding to our defense we also have falling trendline. Targetting historical support level. Lets see how we do.