EWT
S&P500 Primary Elliot Wave count.Y wave went 0.618 to the tick.. w/ the hidden bullish divergence im leaning more bullish combined with the fact we didn't go 90%+ to meet the strong guideline for an X wave which would likely make this an expanded flat to complete 4 of the impulse that began in 2009.
still holding my $SNAP puts waiting to see how Monday plays out.
Part 2: GBPUSD, EWT Sell at Top at 3rd Wave. High Probability Trade Setup:
Sell at the Top 1.27989/1.28419 for targets 1.27048/1.26149/1.25842
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SP500 - Alternative path to 4100Earlier this week I posted how the SP500 will likely move sideways in a triangle for about a year before it starts the 5th and final wave of this historic bull market towards 4100+.
Today I'm posting my alternative wave count where the 5th and final wave is an Ending Diagonal. In both scenarios, I think we have a final wave up towards 4100 and both scenarios have choppy up and down action ahead. This scenario isn't my preferred scenario but it is another possibility.
SP500 to 4100+ after a year of sideways movementAlthough my 2019/2020 target of 3200 was met, I do not like any impulsive interpretations of the rally in 2019. Therefore, I believe we are still in a major correction that started in 2018. According to the way the structure is playing out, my bet for 2020 is sideways movement through that large triangle that will eventually give way to a 5th wave rally to 4100+.
Of course, it is possible that we have perhaps completed the bull market and are starting a new bear market. However, the weight of the evidence at this point suggests the probability that we have started a new bear market is very low.
THE MONTH AHEAD (IRA): EX. CANADA/U.S. ETF'S FOR DIVIDENDSIt shouldn't come as a massive shocker to anyone that the U.S. market has been and has gotten even more expensive. For an investor that is just starting out, it is enormously frustrating, since virtually everything is at the top of a very long term trajectory with the broad market yet again knocking at the door of all-time-highs.
Here are a few acquisition ideas for ex. U.S./Canada exchange-traded funds that pay in excess of SPY (1.90%), IWM (1.33%), QQQ (.84%), and DIA (2.21%) and TLT (average 20-year maturity treasuries) (2.22%). To put things in some additional context: HYG (High Yield Corporate Bonds) is paying 5.29% (paid monthly), EMB (Emerging Market Bonds) -- 5.45%, XLU (Utilities) -- 2.93% (paid quarterly), and IYR (REIT) -- 2.63%.*
EEM: Emerging Market. It gets huge volume (79 million 90-day) and is extremely liquid on the options side of things. The downside is that you get about TLT is currently paying in yield -- 2.22%, paid out quarterly, and fund managers had to muck it up by sticking a whole bunch of China in there. If I wanted to play a Chinese exchange-traded fund, I'd play one (e.g., FXI).
EFA: Behind the funky acronym (MSCI EAFE), this is basically a world excluding the U.S. and Canada exchange-traded fund. Sporting a 3.18% yield, it pays dividends every six months, trades healthy share volume (90-day average 18.3 million), and has good options expiry availability and liquidity, a must for investors looking to go short put/acquire/cover.
EWA: Australia. Granted, the share volume isn't great (1.7 million 90-day), but the yield is 5.54%. Expiry availability isn't fantastic and neither is option liquidity. Dividends pay out twice a year. 21.82/share as of Friday close.
EWG: Germany. 90-day 1.98 million shares average. 2.83% paid once a year. Decent expiry availability/liquidity. 26.44/share as of Friday close.
EWI: Italy. 90-day 1.90 million shares on average. 4.63% paid out once every six months. Expiry availability/liquidity isn't great, with the general solution being to be "fill picky." 26.95 as of Friday close.
EWW: Mexico. 90-day 3.20 million shares traded on average. 4.17% paid out twice a year. Good expiry availability and option liquidity. 43.64 as of Friday close.
EWT: Taiwan. 90-day 5.80 million shares traded. 2.74% paid out once a year. Expiry availability isn't great and neither is options liquidity. 36.71 as of Friday close.
EWZ: Brazil. 90-day 21.58 million shares traded. 2.71% paid out every six months. Excellent expiry availability/options liquidity. 42.11 as of Friday close.
RSX: Russia. 90-day 5.58 million shares traded. 4.31% yield paid out once a year. Expiry availability/options liquidity decent and decent. 22.51 as of Friday close.
The general play on these would be short put, acquire, then cover. Naturally, you'll probably want to drill into the charts on each of these to determine which ones might be trading at a discount.
* -- IYR, XLU, and EMB have ripped higher recently, so are kind of out of range of prices at which I'd like to acquire. Forever the optimist, however, I've got a couple "not a penny more" short puts hanging out there in XLU and HYG. (See Posts Below).
ELLIOTT WAVE: BTCUSD to retrace to golden zone before reversalI'm looking for BTCUSD to retrace to the golden zone of 0.618 ($7231.73) to end wave (2) at which point. If that occurs, target for wave (3) should be ~$80,830
Elliott wave analysis of EOS/USD.Presumably, the initials are forming in the wave , but if you look at the smaller TFs, the ascending structure looks more like a zigzag. Therefore, in the forecast and calculation I’m not sure, I can only say that below 3.06 it is extremely unlikely.
XAUUSD Ending Diagonal at Fibonacci ResistanceEnding Diagonal
An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes , they appear only as the final "C" wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.
Ending diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three," which is otherwise a corrective wave phenomenon.
NIO bullish forecast/guess for Thur/FridayWave 5 of 5 ends in an ending diagonal. bullish prediction for Thursday & Friday this week.
BTC Bearish case: Going to 1000 USD next yearBased on EWT the correction phase started in beginning of 2018 is not finished yet until it touches the highest levels from the 2013-2014 bull market.
ALTS TOTAL2 in longterm bearish territoryALTS seem to be in a bearish longterm territory:
Elliott Wave is missing wave number 5.
The correction of wave 2 and 4 are perfect, one steep, one flat. Wave 3 needs to be the longest.
A massive bear flag is being built.
Weekly perfected 9 on the TD sequential.
Target:
25 to 35 billions of ALTS market cap.
Update 2 - Tron (TRX) - Elliott Wave Count and Prediction - 4hrThe updated wave count for Tron (TRXUSD) from January 21st still stands. Although the timing I proposed was a bit ambitious, the wave count is holding up beautifully.
Here is what you are looking at:
1. Red vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01216364 on December 7th, 2018 and ending on December 24th. On this 4 hour chart, that is 103 'bars' which is 17.166 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (2) of W1, wave (3) of W1, wave (5) of W1 and now wave 1 of (3) of W3.
2. Green vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01829375 on December 28th, 2018 and ending on January 13th, 2019. On this 4 hour chart, that is 101 'bars' which is 16.8333 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (4) of W1 and wave (c) of W2.
For the above vertical lines, we have, from Red to Green, the following time cycle: 23 bars (3d 20h); then from Green to Red: 80 bars (13d 8h). If this pattern holds, we will see correction until around January 30th, 2019.
3. Moving Averages: The fast SMA is 78 bars which is 13 days. The slow SMA is 204 bars which is 34 days. These are currently bullish.
4. Chaiken Money Flow: This is a relatively new indicator FOR ME, so I'm not quite adept in explaining it, but I do know that any value above zero means cash is flowing into the coin while a value below zero means cash is flowing out. It appears we are right at the zero line which implies a balanced state or potential sideways movement. If anyone wants to interject an opinion, please do so.
5. MACD: Appears to be crossing south, but without a divergence. This likely means a period of short-term consolidation/correction
Overall, I expect a pullback to touch the 13 day moving average (~.026) with a slowed, downward and/or sideways movement for 2-3 more days. If it breaks through the fast moving average, expect a test of the slow, 34 day moving average around .024. Once wave 2 of (3) of W3 is complete, expect hard and fast movement northward for a wave 3 of (3) of W3.
Please note that if this current correction (at the time of writing this --green arrow) breaches the low of .02313579 from January 20, 2019 (red arrow), then my wave count is largely, if not entirely invalidated. Should this happen, my entire count would likely change with the trend adjusting downward.
Updated - Tron (TRX) - Elliott Wave Count and Prediction - 4hrI'm making a slight adjustment to my Tron (TRX) EWT count.
It appears TRX isn't waiting around for a slightly deeper pullback to complete (2), so it's highly probable we are now in a (3) of W3 which will give us a fantastic run-up in the next week or so. Notice the red vertical time cycle lines and the beautiful symmetry between the subwaves of W1. This supports the wave count further and I can find no alternate count nearly as probable as this. The subwaves of W1 peaked around 17 day increments. Using this symmetry puts us at January 27th (+/- 24hr) for the next noteworthy pullback. At which time, wave (3) of W3 should complete. Then we will consolidate for a wave (4) of W3.
Please feel free to comment and/or make suggestions on how to improve my wave counts.
I love wave counting the markets and am in awe of their beauty, but *NOTE* I am not an investment advisor and am not offering investment advice.
Current EWT Wave Count - Ripple XRPUSD - 4 HR - Big Move Coming It appears XRP/USD has completed a correction W2 (white) that ended on January 13th, completing a complex WXYXZ correction lasting since January 24th, 2018.
To confirm the end of corrective W2 (white) is wave (Z) ending as a .618 proportion of wave (W). This also coincides with W2 retracing within a few points of the .786 of W1.
Time cycles place the likelihood of wave (3) of W3 beginning on or around January 19th. If this count is correct, we should see the beginning of the bull run as a 3 of 3; generally giving you the fastest and highest gains.
I am entering at current levels with generous stops below the beginning of W1 at $.2750. A breach of this level would negate this wave count entirely.
I will take profit on 1/4th of the position at $.4975 and trail stops up to $.33 which is just below the ending of wave (1) of W3. The remainder of the position will be held indefinitely as it appears a bottom is in place and there is nowhere to go but up. I'll trail my stops respective to EWT rules and pay close attention to if this wave count holds up.
I am not an investment advisor and am not recommending you buy or sell. I enjoy predicting market behaviour and, most of all, learning new trading techniques. Please feel free to politely offer suggestions or critiques of my EWT analysis.
ETH in bearish 4th wave triangleConfluence at target with long term horizontal support, triangle measurement from A-B projected from E and also Algo target from most recent significant swing high to swing low. Trade is invalidated if E wave goes above C of the ABCDE.
Longs outpacing shorts which can be construed as a contrarian indicator.
USOIL near term downside target: $67.25Short Term running flat correction looks most likely. Downside target is $67.25 to $66.17.
If it starts to play out that way, it could turn around short of that target since it's running flat. But it looks pretty flat, and so I think the target makes sense.
Next move after that would probably be to the upside, but it could keep going down depending on momentum, fundamentals, etc. Have to wait and see what happens. Cheers -
SP500 target 2920-2940, then correction, then Santa ClausTriangle wave IV recently completed and current leading diagonal primary wave 1 nearing completion. The diagonal should have 3-3-3-3-3 structure, and it appears to be about to finish the last leg this week or next; maybe right after Labor Day. Primary wave 2 could be a significant correction, setting up a nice Santa Claus rally in November. We'll see.
Cheers -
Ermanometric and EWT situation update.I cannot paste images in my last idea, so new idea with situation update. That 5th wave if will occur should not last long, minimum for this is around 7 cents (38.2 length of wave 3rd) maximum rests for trading robots or panic sellers. I will put some pending buy orders @HitBtc and @Zaif but in hope for get fast free of cost XEMs. Before trend change here should be that panic shortlived dump and daily close with intresting candle and long shadow.
