Bitcoin's Tumble: How Deep Does the Rabbit Hole Go?This isn't just a correction; it's a journey down the rabbit hole. The recent "fake" ATH was a calculated move by the whales to engineer a deep pullback. This analysis maps out the key levels in this rabbit hole where Alice—and Bitcoin—might finally find the bottom and begin the climb to a new Wonderland.
After updating its ATH on August 14th, Bitcoin did not continue its global uptrend. It was merely a liquidity sweep of the previous ATH, which confirmed the formation of a large range on the weekly and daily structures. In essence, this new ATH was a deviation above the range, after which the asset began a sharp markdown, collecting all the internal liquidity.
Most likely, the recent ATH was not the final one in this global bull cycle for Bitcoin because a proper, definitive high that would look like the start of a bear cycle was not established. Instead, it was achieved through a manipulation aimed at engineering a correction for the instrument down to key institutional levels.
Three Potential Long Scenarios
General Entry Conditions for All Scenarios:
Since these are levels from a global structure, a valid entry requires a clear reversal reaction and price finding acceptance above the respective Fib level . Confirmation of this may require waiting for 1-2 daily candles to close if the 1-4H candles do not immediately confirm the reversal.
SCENARIO 1 (Primary): The 50% Weekly Fib Level
This is the first corrective level from which a reversal is possible. A key confluence here is that reaching this level would be accompanied by a sweep of the external liquidity from the lower boundary of the range, as well as the mitigation of the upper boundary of the previous range, which could provide the necessary fuel for the next major impulse up. An added plus would be the price reaching the daily FVG that lies just below this level.
SCENARIO 2 (Deeper Correction): The 61.8% Weekly Fib Level
A break of the 50% level would mean that there wasn't enough liquidity and a deeper correction is needed. The next logical target would be the 61.8% level.
SCENARIO 3 (Final Defense): The 78.6% Weekly Fib Level
This is the last line of defense for the bullish structure. A reaction here would offer the most discounted entry to join the potential continuation of the bull run.
If the final retracement level is broken, the price will most likely attack the June 22nd low at 98200 . If the price finds acceptance below this level with daily/weekly candles, it would signal the end of the global bull cycle and the beginning of a bear market, but this is a distant and less probable perspective for now. I find it more probable that one of the three long scenarios will play out, and the price of Bitcoin will set a new, legitimate ATH.
Since the price is still inside the new large range—albeit near its lower boundary—reaching the first 50% global correction level may take some time and will likely happen next week. Whether this level can withstand the assault will determine if Bitcoin's fall continues, and just how deep Alice's rabbit hole truly is.
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The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇
P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.
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