ETHUSD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]1. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉
Timeframe: 15m | Pair: ETHUSD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator gave us the confirmation we needed for our statistical edge.
Here is where the indicator makes the difference. Look at the dashboard on the right, numbers don't lie:
🚀 Continuation Rate (74.5%): We are well above the 60% threshold. This tells us the market is in a healthy, directional trend. Statistically, betting on continuation pays off more than looking for a reversal.
🔥 Streak (9) & Streak Pct (4%): We are at the 9th consecutive impulse. It's a mature trend (we are in the 4th percentile of trend extension), so watch those stop losses, but as long as the music plays, we dance.
🔄 Retest (78.6%): The indicator tells us that statistically, when price creates a new Break of Structure (BOS), it retraces into the previous zone 78.6% of the time.
💥 BOS/Ret Rate (65.2%): This parameter tells us that once price retraces inside the previous zone, it has a high probability of reacting and creating a new BOS.
🎯 Extension Rate (1.8x): The algorithm projects an ambitious target. We expect this move to extend 1.8 times the current pullback leg. That's where we'll take profit.
2. Execution Plan on Chart
Moving to the chart, the SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator supports us in pinpointing liquidity to define entry and stop loss:
Entry and Stop Loss: We place a limit entry in the Supply Zone 15m (Blue Band) and the stop loss a few pips above the zone at the structural high. Take Profit: We leverage the asset's statistical analysis offered by the Extension Rate and place the target by measuring with Fibonacci at 1.8x relative to the pullback leg.
Trade Parameters: Entry Price: 1963.2 Stop Loss: 2021.9 Take Profit: 1563.2
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.
Fibonacci
SMC Hidden FVG + Rejection Block Road MapSell Trade is ready..
Sell trade is ready according to SMC. If price reaches this sell area then we'll look for rejection candle combine with clear Mss. Let's conquer this trade with precision. This XAUUSD analysis is built on structure, liquidity and smart money logic, not on guesswork.
🧠 Final Thought
If you understand liquidity, imbalance and structure, you stop chasing price —
you start letting price come to you.
👉 Do you agree with this bearish roadmap, or do you see a different liquidity draw?
Comment your view below — let’s read the market together.
COIN [Coinbase] EWP TC FIB ANALYSIS DAILY TFCOIN – Daily Structure Overview
After five swings up, completing a motive wave, price formed a double top near 430 and has since entered a corrective phase. The market is now retracing the entire bullish leg from the 2022 low, with downside targeting the golden zone around the 85 area. This region represents a major confluence support and potential termination zone for the correction. As long as price holds above the golden zone, the higher-timeframe bullish structure remains intact. Upon completion of the correction, the next impulsive advance may resume, with the primary bullish target remaining at 795. A sustained break below the 85 zone would invalidate this scenario and suggest a deeper corrective structure.
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CIFR has reached key resistance zonePrice has reached the key resistance zone outlined in the October updates and is showing signs of at least mid-term topping action.
As long as price remains below 24, I’m watching for continuation to the downside into the 14–10 support zone.
Chart:
Previously:
• On resistance zone (Oct 13):
Chart:
www.tradingview.com
• On bullish structure and support (Sep 28):
Chart:
www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin - Pullback LevelsOn the larger timeframe, Wave 3 of the decline has been completed.
Locally, within this third wave, the fifth subwave has been completed.
We are currently in an upward corrective move. Let’s define the main targets.
Key targets:
75,000 - local correction
82,000
85,000
The potential move from the current level is 15-30% .
There is also an unfinished sub-division around 55,000 , but it appears unlikely.
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OKLO 1D: Transition phase after declineOn the daily chart OKLO has shifted from a prolonged downtrend into a basing phase. After a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, price broke out of a falling wedge and pulled back into a demand zone. Selling pressure failed to resume and recent lows remain intact.
From a structural perspective, price action reflects a complex base following the decline. The 80–90 area remains pivotal, aligning with the 200-day moving average and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This confluence has already produced multiple reactions, reinforcing its relevance. Momentum indicators confirm stabilization rather than trend continuation, with MACD exiting negative territory while ADX remains subdued.
The primary structural reaction level sits near 115, marking the upper boundary of the current base. Acceptance above this area would open the door for structural expansion toward the 160 region. Failure to hold the 80–90 zone would invalidate the basing scenario and return price to a neutral structure.
From a fundamental standpoint the company remains early stage. EPS TTM stands at −9.68, with Q4 2025 EPS estimated at −0.17. Revenue remains absent, while cash flow stays negative, with operating cash flow at −62.2M and free cash flow at −68.5M. Liquidity remains strong, with cash per share at 6.13 and minimal debt, supported by recent capital inflows. Enterprise value is currently estimated at 13.8B.
At this stage the market is pricing structure and expectations rather than earnings. Price behavior within the base will define the next directional phase.
Price action leads before fundamentals follow.
Chumtrades xauusd friday trade planMarket Context
Gold is currently trading within a wide range, with the short-term structure still bearish. Price remains capped below the descending trendline, and each rebound weakens as it approaches resistance, indicating defensive, short-term capital flow with no clear signs of accumulation for a reversal yet.
Key Macro Factors
Markets remain under pressure from concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates, as monetary policy has not shifted toward easing. U.S. labor data volatility keeps gold highly sensitive to news, while rate-cut expectations for March–April remain low, offering insufficient support for a sustained bullish move. Geopolitical risks persist but currently act more as noise than a trend driver.
Market Expectations
Buyers are looking for short-term technical rebounds from demand zones, while sellers are waiting for pullbacks into resistance to continue distribution. Overall, the market appears to be positioning for a strong breakout, with elevated volatility risks heading into the weekend.
Intraday Trading Strategy
Bias remains SELL, trading in line with the prevailing structure. Look to sell on pullbacks into the 4,900–4,950 resistance area or near the descending trendline. BUY setups are strictly short-term reaction trades at support, with no intention to hold positions for long. Avoid chasing price during high-volatility moves.
Support zones: 4,825–4,836 | 4,800–4,814 | 4,750–4,766 | 4,640–4,700.
Resistance zones: 4,900–4,950 | 5,000 | a break above 5,100 would invalidate the bearish structure.
Friday Notes ⚠️
Fridays often carry the risk of sudden sell-offs, especially after 22:00 (VN time). On news-driven sessions, price can move fast and aggressively, increasing the risk of stop hunts. With wide volatility, tight risk management, smaller position sizing, and capital preservation should take priority over profit-seeking.
Palantir - Going DownFrom April to October 2025, a fifth wave to the upside formed.
After that, the stock entered a corrective phase.
According to the plan, we expect a retracement toward the start of Wave 5 .
Given the fast price action and the large number of minor corrections, we will focus only on the major, higher-timeframe targets.
Proceed with caution - a pullback is expected even from the current level.
Key targets:
115 - or slightly lower; a corrective bounce (upward move) is expected here as part of wave 3 of the impulse
83
63
The potential move from the current level is 34-50% .
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Few lessons from losing positions.GBPUSD long: FOMO, Big Fib less than 50, middle 50, small - none - consolidation around 29.2, tight SL, low confidence, rejection from middle fib 50.
USDCAD short: Stop loss placement, tight SL,late second entry on the wrong side of pedulum.
GBPUSD short: wishful trading, calling the top, impatience, fail to read market structure,narrow focus.
USDJPY short: vibe trading, calling the top, tight stop loss, cutting the winner short.
GBPAUD long: counter trend, fib as a catch, fail to read market structure,
ASTRUSDT: Massive 12H Bullish Divergence at Key SupportDescription
The Setup: We are looking at the 12H chart for ASTER/USDT, and a high-probability reversal pattern is starting to take shape. While the price action has been making lower lows throughout this downtrend, the RSI (14) is clearly making higher lows. This classic Bullish Divergence suggests that the selling pressure is exhausting and a trend shift may be imminent.
Technical Highlights:
Timeframe: 12-Hour (High Conviction).
Price Action: Consolidating near a long-term horizontal support zone.
Indicators: RSI is showing a strong upward slope despite the price weakness. We are also seeing price beginning to hug the EMAs, looking for a breakout above the descending trendline.
Risk/Reward: With a tight stop just below the recent swing low, the R/R ratio is very attractive for a move back toward the 0.618 or 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels.
Trading Plan:
Entry: Current levels or on a confirmed 12H candle close above the immediate EMA resistance.
Target: Primary target sits around the $0.91 level (as marked on the chart).
Stop Loss: Below the recent wick low at approximately $0.49.
Conclusion: Divergence on higher timeframes often precedes significant moves. Keep an eye on volume to confirm the breakout!
Bitcoin Long Term ViewBTC has retraced 50% from it's all time high and is currently in the 'Golden Pocket' zone. The golden pocket refers to a key Fibonacci retracement zone between the 61.8% and 50% levels, often indicating potential reversal points in trading.
Additionally, we are at the bottom of a regression channel which has historically acted as support. Using Fibonacci time extensions based on previous highs it looks plausible that a new high could be reached towards the end of the year or early next year.
We first need to see a reversal of the recent downtrend on the daily chart to confirm this reversal area.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/6/2026 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2026
- PR High: 24474.00
- PR Low: 24294.00
- NZ Spread: 402.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 488.50
- Volume: 76K
- Open Int: 275K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -7.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 26521
- Mid: 25264
- Short: 23412
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Forming a Bottom Around the 35k Area? Retracement Eyeing 70-84k?Following the recent decline, Bitcoin is now trading in the 60k range for the first time since late 2024.
Considering the confluence of Fibonacci high–low measurements (retracements/extensions), the White Swan / 121 pattern, and the monthly FVG structure, a potential bottom appears to cluster around the 35k ±3–5k zone .
If we assume a complex corrective structure under Elliott Wave Theory (the chart illustrates a WXY scenario, though a WXYXZ formation remains possible), and if the retracement indeed began after marking the 60k level, then it would not be surprising to see the downtrend resume anywhere within the 70–84k retracement area .
Of course, this still represents a bearish scenario , and position management around key levels should always be prioritized.
GOLD: BRACING FOR GRAVITY EFFECT AFTER AN EXTREME RALLYXAU/USD D1 - Gold remains bullish overall, but the current move is a correction after an extreme rally. Price may drop faster due to market gravity, with key downside zones at 4,940, 4,740, and 4,615 (Fibonacci cluster & gap area).
The vibrational date is around Feb 12, 2026. Focus is to wait and see the price action as we approach this date, especially around the highlighted levels.
CRWV - Not too late for a long tradeCRWV setting up good for a long trade.
Formed a inverse H&S and popped to fill the gap above.
Don't jump in with whole size but scale in slowly with small size on dips between 90-100
Target 1 - 120
Target 2 - 140 - So much overhead supply at this level. It can struggle here I guess.
POTENTIAL BUY OPPORTUNITY ON BTCUSDBTCUSD dipped and found a low around the $60,333 level I anticipate buyers to step in as this level also shares confluence with the 61.8% fibo retracement level from the higher timeframe 3 months chart. Therefore, I’m longing BITSTAMP:BTCUSD from the current market price. Target is around the $80k level
Tesla - Electric Car Rolling LowerWe continue the downside move described in several previous posts.
We are drawing a corrective wave of the larger move.
Inside the corrective wave, four impulse sub-waves have already formed, and we are now forming the fifth sub-wave.
Key levels:
408
393
368
The most probable completion zone appears to be between 393-368 , which corresponds to roughly 50-60% of the primary move.
The downside potential from current levels is estimated at 2-12% .
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AMD — Everything Looks BadSince October 2025, AMD stock has been correcting.
Waves A and B have formed, and it appears that Wave C has begun to develop.
The correction type is flat .
Wave C is forming as a five -wave impulse.
Key targets:
218 — local correction
200 — the most likely end of the impulse, located in the 50–60% range of the larger Wave 5
189
The potential move from the current level is 15–20%.
We assume that the stock may move lower after the initial targets are reached.
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BTC Long-Term Chart – Support Zones & Personal PlaybookThis chart shows my long-term Bitcoin plan and the key support zones I’m watching over the coming weeks and months. It represents my personal playbook, not financial advice.
Not every zone needs to be revisited, but if price does return to these areas, I plan to accumulate spot positions step by step rather than all at once.
The zones are based on higher-timeframe structure, volume clusters, and major moving averages.
My focus is on patience and scaling in, not chasing momentum.
Invalidation for this idea would be a clear structural breakdown on the weekly timeframe.
As always, risk management comes first. This is just how I currently view the market and how I intend to react if price moves into these regions.






















