Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 45 2025 [03.11.- 07.11.2025]Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 45 2025
📅 November 3 – November 7, 2025
Let’s kick off an exciting new trading week — and a brand-new trading month! 🚀
Seasonal factors often play a major role in November and December, and I’ll break them down for you in this week’s video. 🎥📈
Sit back, enjoy the overview, and dive into the world of banks, hedge funds, and institutional flows — with exclusive insights into how the pros are positioned right now. 🧠💼📊
💡 Bonus segments: Strategies, setups & market psychology — everything you need to know for the week ahead. ⚡️
📘 Topics covered in this week’s outlook:
🏛 Seasonality in the Nasdaq:
🥇 Seasonality in Gold:
... and many more charts & concepts in the video! 🎬📊
💬 I’m looking forward to your questions, comments, and an active discussion here on TradingView!
👋 Best,
Meikel
Fundamental Analysis
Is the Gold Bull Market Over? Gold has had a double digit correction form the all time high.
Pulling back just over 11% is very healthy if the bull market trend is to resume.
On an intra day 4 hour time frame gold is still looking very weak.
However the weekly pattern was able to hold a key weekly bullish level.
Gold is at a very tricky inflection point so i would personally wait until you get some key breakout or breakdown signals.
Look towards your miners to see if they are gaining additional liquidity. They will often lead.
DXY ANALYSIS: TRADING WEEK 3 - 7 NOVEMBER 2025On this video i higlight the importance of the 101.800 area of resistance, a multi year resistance that on my view will be reached soon
I have two possible scenarios for the DXY next week:
- Test of the 101.800 during the first 2/3 trading days and pullback to the 97,700 area of support where the DXY would cover a gap left open 3 weeks ago and where the DXY will start rallying up again
- Test of the 101.300 - 101.500 level of resistance during the first 2/3 trading days and pullback to the 98.500 - 98.400 area of support where the DXY will start rallying up again
Data released through the week and the strength of the Index will ultimately confirm one of the two scenario
I will update and follow up on this trading analysis - setup; please like, comment and share if you like this Trading Idea
Day 60 — Trading Only S&P Futures | 10-for-10 Green TradesStick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go.
Recap & Trades
Day 60 — another clean session.
We started the day with a bearish structure, so my plan was simple: wait for price to reach the 1-minute MOB and short it.
Every trade lined up with VX Algo confirmations — short, lock profit, repeat.
I was already up after the first few setups, and once I realized I was 10-for-10 on trades, I stopped.
Lesson & Mindset
This was a great reminder that it’s not about trading more — it’s about trading better.
Consistency doesn’t come from being in the market all day; it comes from having discipline to stop when the job’s done.
News & Levels
The quiet story today — liquidity is draining from the system.
US bank reserves just fell to $2.8 trillion, the lowest since 2020. That’s worth watching closely in the weeks ahead.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6915 bullish, below 6895 bearish.
Gold - The bullrun is over today!💰Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) creates a massive top:
🔎Analysis summary:
Starting all the way back in 2015, Gold created a major rounding bottom pattern. After the breakout, Gold started its major bullrun, rallying about +300% over the past couple of years. But after this rally, Gold is now showing clear signs of a serious top formation.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Day 59 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$142 & Netflix Split Recap & Trades
Day 59 — started off strong shorting 6930 resistance right out the gate.
Those early plays hit perfectly, and I built up about +$300 in profit.
Later, I got a little greedy — took a risky end-of-day setup, got stopped out right before a recovery, and ended up finishing at +$142.
Could’ve been a bigger day, but I’ll take a green close any time I stick to the plan.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the best win is walking away with discipline intact.
Once you’re up early, your focus should shift from “how much can I make” to “how well can I protect it.”
That mindset compounds long-term consistency.
News & Levels
Big market story today — Netflix just announced a 10-for-1 stock split.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6920 bullish, below 6875 bearish.
Natural Gas Rallies on Weak InventoriesNatural Gas surged up 6% today.
Inventories came out 74B vs 71B estimate.
Despite the weaker report the commodity still surged.
This is showing a great relative strength trade.
A bull flag could be primed for a breakout on the daily chart.
Nat gas equities are beginning to look cheap again.
Amd - This is still not over yet!🚀Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) can rally another +25%:
🔎Analysis summary:
This month alone, Amd has been rallying another +50%. All of this happened because of an expected rejection at a major confluence of support. Looking at the rising channel pattern though, Amd can still rally another +25% before this rally might actually be over.
📝Levels to watch:
$300
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Silver bull will try to throw you off, but long term healthyA pause that could refresh might be warranted in silver and gold.
I am still optimistic for precious metals long term.
Silver is still undervalued based on historical metrics and money supply.
I worry about the rise in metals and what it implies for the broad stock market indices.
Day 58 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$304 & Easy FOMC GainsRecap & Trades
Day 58 — clean and easy.
We had some conflicting signals early, but once the structure aligned, it became a straightforward session.
The key takeaway today was how FOMC movement tends to cap between 30–60 points, which makes it easy to plan trades if you size stops properly.
Overall, simple setups, small size, steady gain — +$304 for the day.
Lesson & Mindset
You don’t have to trade aggressively to make progress.
Low-effort, high-consistency days are often where real edge compounds.
I’m learning that keeping your head calm on choppy news-driven days is what separates pros from gamblers.
News & Levels
Powell’s comments cooled expectations for further rate cuts, causing the Dow to fade late in the session.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
Short Analysis for the NQ ft. ES, DOW & DXYNQ: Range bound , 50/50 as of the time posting this; due to the discrepancies in the 3 sisters and the unreliability of the DXY.
ES: Same situation as the NQ
DOW: Potentially pursuing higher highs with a probability of dragging the NQ and the ES along with it. Although they do not show such interests for now.
News: CPI, PPI, Non-Farm and other market drivers coming up in the next few weeks, which might provide some clarity on the mid to short-term. Calling a top now would be equivalent to gambling, in my opinion.
Crude Oil is InflationOne of the best ways to gauge where inflation is heading is by tracking the relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
If we take a moment to observe their movement from the 1980s to today, we can see that they have generally moved in tandem. The year of their peaks and troughs are in synchronization.
So, who is leading whom?
Is it the inflation data that drive crude oil prices higher or lower — or is it crude oil prices that influence the inflation trend?
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Hot CPI Kills Hopes of an RBA CutAustralia's Q3 inflation figures have just dropped, and all surprised to the upside. Not only does this kill hopes of a cut next week — and likely for the rest of the year — but it also suggests the RBA may have already reached the terminal rate of this cutting cycle. I take a quick look at the figures, AUD/USD, and the ASX 200.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
Day 57 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$27 & Staying DisciplinedRecap & Trades
Day 57 — a slower day, but still a win for discipline.
We had X7 sell signals flashing early, hinting at downside, but the market structure stayed bullish and DP buy signals kept showing up.
I went long near the MOB zone at 11:30, got shaken out on a quick drop at 11:35, and eventually decided to step aside. Closed for a small gain of +$27.50.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the right play is to walk away.
When signals conflict, overtrading only leads to frustration.
Days like this are great reminders that trading small and reviewing later can be just as productive as hitting big wins.
News & Levels
Main headline — S&P 500 hit a new record high today ahead of major tech earnings.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
Nvidia - Squeezing every single bear!🧯NVidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is finally breaking out:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, Nvidia has been rallying +125%. Considering the market cap of Nvidia, this is already an insane move but clearly not the end. We can still see another +25% from here, before Nvidia will then retest the next resistance.
📝Levels to watch:
$250
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Natural Gas - Did You Profit?Today natural gas saw some downside pressure.
We closed our KOLD long - which was our short trade on Nat Gas, netting over 8% gain.
Being nimble in the Nat gas market is key, as its a very choppy asset and gains can be lost very quickly.
Breaking below the 7 day MA needs to be watched closely as it does leave room for more downside.
Inventories lately have been lack luster and need to show some positivity before price start to gravity to the weekly trend.






















