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Fundamental Analysis

November 10 - 14 2025 1. Macro I have made several changes to my Macro layout to make it more focused and intuitive for options trading. I still watch commodities and check the gauge from time to time, but I have found they are too volatile, cyclical, and noisy for me to be keeping such close tabs on. Instead, my renewed focus is to assess risk across currency (gold and fiat) and bonds, which in turn will help me measure the attractiveness of stocks in real time. Since Mid-September, the dollar TVC:DXY has been on a steady rise. Meanwhile, the Z-score of $(DXY*TYIE) (Dollar FX strength multiplied by real yield) has been falling over the same period before pivoting at the end of October. This would suggest that real yields were falling at a rate that outpaced the dollar’s relative strengthening. The pivot came at the same time that TVC:GOLD started to pull back from its nearly 30% rally. Keep in mind that real yields rising is bearish for gold. I’m also bringing in $GOLD/GVZ which serves as a good early exhaustion gauge for Gold. Here we can see that traders loaded up on AMEX:GLD puts before the price pulled back, but have since reverted back to the average. We will see if Gold continues its uptrend or if more volatility is to come. Next, I’m looking at the Z-score of the dollar TVC:DXY against the price (not yield) of a 10Y US-bond. The idea here is to simply gauge whether the market has a preference for cash or risk-free bonds. This measures the relative risk of bonds (ie. higher yields expected: market will prefer cash). Here we can see that there seems to be a preference for cash that has close correlation with the TVC:DXY uptrend, suggesting FX is moving the dollar higher more than a change in the bond price. I have decided to chart TVC:US02Y by itself, occasionally switching to other yields or the 10Y real yield FRED:DFII10 ), since it is more sensitive to policy than 10Y and more volatile than 03MY. Here, the nominal yield started to rise at the same time as when TVC:GOLD & CBOE:GVZ peaked and the dollar*real yield gauge pivoted. The forward inflation gauge (bottom right) has stayed mostly down but is showing signs of flattening out, perhaps finding support for a move higher. What does all of this tell me? I think this sends a clear message that the market thinks nominal yields will continue to rise, yet I’m not yet getting the signal that this is due to a change in how the market is pricing inflation. Due to shutdown delays (which will hopefully be ending soon), the latest available real yield print is from Thursday November 6, and with the movement on Friday it will be important to see how the forward inflation gauge changes when it gets updated. If nominal yields continue to rise TVC:US02MY and TVC:GOLD confirms without hedging CBOE:GVZ , this would send a risk-off signal. On the flip-side, the market would need to see continued FX strength for the dollar AND nominal yields flat or falling to confirm a risk-on pivot. Right now this leans risk-off but I will be watching closely. 2. FX Made a couple changes to the FX layout to support the same line of thinking. Might tweak this more depending on how insightful it is. Top pane is now 2Y yields for selected countries. The middle pane is what I would call a “forward-looking interest rate vs historical inflation”. This is similar to the real yield but the real inflation data has much more lag, but I’m trying this out as it may suggest how loose or tight forward policy expectations might be. Lastly, I have the percent comparison of the selected currency baskets as usual. Since the Dollar’s FX strength is playing a key role in the dollar’s attractiveness over bonds, It’s worthy to note that other currency indices currently have an inverse relationship with OPOFINANCE:DXY. The dollar caught a bid while competitors fell in late October but now it looks like the opposite is occurring. TVC:US02Y has risen and is now essentially tied for second-highest with Australia - use below Great Britain. Meanwhile, the market is pricing the US as restrictive but not as tight as France and Italy (dotted and dashed blue lines, respectively). I think this means the Eurozone will see more FX interest compared to the dollar, which could undermine its strength unless nominal yields continue to rise. In my view, this supports a better Risk-On argument since the Euro index TVC:EXY has not started outperforming TVC:DXY yet on the indexed chart, meaning euro restrictiveness is not fully priced in. With the US in the early stages of an easing cycle and Europe still dealing with higher inflation, US conditions are likely to continue easing relative to the EU’s riskier members; France and Italy. This should keep the dollar from finding too much market interest. Conclusion: Dollar FX will continue to be range-bound or lower. Any rise should just be seen as temporary. 3. Risk I’ve changed my approach here to focus more on credit on a shorter-term basis. Here, I have real Option Adjusted Spreads of corporate bonds (top left, blue) like before, but will primarily watch the proxy -1*(HYG+LQD)/2/TLT (public debt vs treasuries), which is more sensitive and can provide early signals and important divergences. In the middle pane, I’m tracking $-1*HYIN (inverse of a private-credit ETF; higher value = higher risk to private credit). On the third pane I am using $ES1!/GOLD as I have always done. This layout shows a worrying picture for the near-term. The real OAS chart (blue) is confirming the uptrend on the proxy above it is signaling stress to public credit and spreads may be on to higher highs. On the next chart, we are seeing that there is also stress to private credit that is staying above the Keltner Channel. I believe this underlying credit risk added stress to stocks over the past two weeks. If it continues there certainly could be more downside ahead. It’s also not looking good when $ES1!/GOLD is moving lower after a bounce that could potentially lead to lower low, however a key point to note is that this recent dip has been caused by stock selling, not gold buying, as I have previously pointed out, which is a very important distinction in my opinion. My takeaway is that the credit situation should be monitored very closely. Despite this, it’s also noteworthy that the market is not rushing into risk-off assets like Gold and Treasuries, and Macro forces may even prevent a surge in both, so there is still a good chance the credit issue is temporary. Neutral/leaning bearish on this one. 4. Sector Performance Same approach here. Only thing I want to point out is that we clearly saw a rotation out of tech AMEX:XLK and into healthcare AMEX:XLV (circled), which was the source of stock market volatility and could have been due to “smart money” positioning prior to the White House pharmaceutical pricing announcement. I doubt this trade will hold, so a rotation back into tech at some point seems likely. 5. Bias I won’t spend too much time on this one today. I already predicted we’d see the price move higher after Friday’s close which is why I bought calls one week out. CVD clearly favored the sellers last week but right now it looks like it might be breaking through. On my volatility indicators on the left, there was strong confirmation that dealers were long puts on the days the market sold off last week but Friday appeared to show a pivot, taking out the puts. Historical Volatility (HV) is falling so there is a possibility this could be a reversion, however I think a 4% pullback and 22 on TVC:VIX with no major news supporting it was excessive. Stocks were overbought so that was more than enough for a healthy pullback to shuffle the deck. Conclusion: Macro indicators are important to watch this week, as I believe they will provide important clues for stock market performance. As I explained above, rising yields/strong dollar will put downward pressure on stocks but the dollar’s relative strength can be assessed through the FX lens, which suggests that even if we see nominal yields rise to start the week, investors will still have an incentive to buy US debt compared to across the pond (UK, France, Italy). I also think the rotation out of Tech and into Healthcare was likely temporary, which let stocks pull back and investors to profit off of the healthcare-related policy news that was in the pipeline. The real bearish catalyst I’m watching is to see if credit continues to show signs of stress. If that is the case, a continued rise in gold (which we are already seeing today) could be a signal of rushing to safety, however I would also expect to see US treasuries declining simultaneously if that were the case. All of this to say, I think it is more likely than not that stocks will recover and continue the bullish trend this week, but it is still important to watch for any signs that trouble still lies ahead. A lot can happen in a week.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ap769
Bullish Gold TurnaroundOver the weekend, Trump’s $2000 tariff dividend announcement and the Senate’s first step toward ending the shutdown gave a strong boost to gold prices. Both developments are helping to ease the dollar liquidity crunch that has pressured gold in recent days. It’s not over yet, but after testing the 4130–4150 resistance zone, gold might see a short-term selloff that could present a new buying opportunity. With quantitative tightening set to end in December, bullish pressure is likely to persist in the medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. (TSX: RCH) - Swing Trade💰 RCH.TO — Swing Trade Breakdown (November 2025) 🏢 Company Snapshot Richelieu Hardware Ltd. (TSX: RCH) is a Canadian importer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty hardware and renovation supplies. It serves cabinetmakers, furniture builders, and DIY markets. The stock has been gaining attention for its steady fundamentals, clean chart structure, and possible upside if margins recover. 📊 Fundamentals P/E: ~24.3× — Slightly above industry average (15-20×), showing investor confidence. P/B: ~2.1× — Moderate valuation relative to peers. Debt/Equity: ~0.28 — Low leverage and conservative balance sheet. ROE: ~6.3% — Profitability still lagging high-quality peers. Dividend Yield: ~1.65% — Balanced between growth and income. Free Cash Flow: ~CAD 145 M TTM — Strong liquidity generation. Cash on Hand: ~CAD 45–50 M — Solid short-term flexibility. 🧾 Summary: Healthy balance sheet, modest valuation, but needs stronger profitability to re-rate higher. 📈 Trends & Catalysts Revenue Growth: +6.6% YoY to ~CAD 1.93 B — steady expansion. EPS Trend: Slightly down (~-5% YoY) to ~CAD 1.53 TTM. Cash Flow: Improving; strong FCF helps reinvestment and dividends. Balance Sheet: Low leverage, improving liquidity metrics. Catalysts: Margin rebound potential if supply costs ease. Renovation and housing activity supporting demand. Quarterly earnings or guidance upgrade could trigger upside. Risks: Margin compression from materials and freight. Slowing home improvement cycle. Modest ROE limits institutional interest. 🪙 Industry Overview Weekly: Up ~1-3% — mild momentum into renovation plays. Monthly: Up ~5-8% — sector rotation favouring construction and housing. 12-Month: Outperforming broader materials group as defensive industrial supplier. 📐 Technicals Price: ~CAD 36.93 50-SMA: ~CAD 36 → price trading above this level, confirming uptrend. 200-SMA: ~CAD 32.00 → long-term bullish structure intact. RSI(2): ~9.76 → short-term oversold region, potential for mean reversion. Pattern: Bullish flag forming after breakout. Support: CAD 35.00 – 36.00 zone. Resistance: CAD 40.50 – 41.50 zone. Volume: Building on green days — accumulation phase likely starting. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry Zone: CAD 37.00 – 38.00 near breakout retest or low-volume pullback. Stop Loss: CAD 34.75 (below support). Target: CAD 41.50 (prior highs). Risk/Reward: ~2.5× setup — clean structure with manageable downside. Alternate Entry: Breakout confirmation above CAD 39.00 on heavy volume. 🧠 My Take RCH.TO looks like a solid medium-beta swing candidate: low debt, steady cash flow, and constructive technicals. Momentum is quietly building, and the chart shows a flag continuation pattern right above key moving averages. I’m watching for a breakout through 39.00 to confirm momentum into the 41.50 resistance zone. Ideal risk entry remains in the 37-38 area with stops below 34.75. 📈 Bias: Bullish consolidation — targeting 8-10% swing upside over 1–3 weeks.
TSX:RCHLong
by SwingTraderKev
10/11/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,732.65 Last weeks low: $98,972.09 Midpoint: $104,852.37 Bitcoins price action of last week tells an interesting story. The first trading hour of the week marked the weekly high, a sharp decline towards HTF support at $99,000 marked the weekly bottom, to finish the week a late surge recovered some of the losses to end the week at the range midpoint. The double bottom at range low is a good sign for the bulls in a must win contested area around the $100,000 mark, not only is it a big even level but a HTF key S/R level too. Should the bulls lose this weekly low it opens the door to a $92,000 retest. For the bulls should this rebound persist a flip of $108,000 is key but there is certainly a lack of spark in the markets at the moment. I don't see the bulls making any significant ground until the US Government shutdown is announced to be coming to an end. This announcement could happen at any time and so this week that's what I am making plans for, how will the market react, volatility on announcement etc... Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
I will go short on gold in this area, what do you guys think ?📊 XAAUSD Analysis – CMP Zone Setup I expect XAAUSD to test the zone, based on my CMP (Current Market Price) technique — a method I use to identify potential reaction areas and key levels from a technical perspective. 🔍 Technical Outlook: Price is approaching a CMP zone that may act as a reaction point. I’ll be monitoring closely for a bearish engulfing pattern as confirmation before entering a trade. 🎯 Trade Plan: Stop Loss: 50 pips Take Profit: 1:2 or 1:3 R:R Setup Type: CMP Reaction + Engulfing Confirmation ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal technical view and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before taking any trade.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by CAELANproptrader
Privacy is Pricy Again — How Zcash Got Back in the GameA significant shift is recently observed in the cryptocurrency space, indicating a resurgence of interest in privacy. The sharp rise of Zcash (ZEC) — over 46% in the week following Galaxy Research's analysis — is a clear example of this trend, reflecting the market's demand for untraceable funds. Zcash, after years on the sidelines, has returned to the forefront, confirming that the fundamental cypherpunk ideals of privacy hold high value in the modern financial system. 1. Technological Breakthroughs and Zcash’s Fundamental Growth The Zcash rally is driven not only by speculation but also by major improvements that have made privacy both more accessible and more effective: Removing Barriers (Zashi & NEAR Intents): The use of zk-SNARKs (zero-knowledge proofs) has become more user-friendly. Enhanced user experience (UX) in new wallets (like Zashi) and integration with cross-chain mechanisms like NEAR Intents have removed the technical friction associated with "shielding" transactions. Strengthening Anonymity: The most crucial network metric for Zcash is the increase of shielded coins in the Orchard pool to over 30% of the total supply. The more coins are "hidden," the larger the anonymity set becomes, which mathematically increases the difficulty of tracing transactions. Technological Edge: Zcash, unlike some competitors, offers quantum-resistant cryptography and a stronger privacy mechanism via zk-SNARKs, which allows transaction validation without revealing the amount, sender, or receiver. 2. Zcash as a Counter-Trend to Transparency The sharp price increase of ZEC after years of stagnation reflects a broader market narrative: Reaction to Institutionalization: Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's growing transparency and institutionalization (ETFs, centralized custodians), Zcash is positioning itself as “encrypted Bitcoin”—an asset that refocuses attention on the decentralized and private nature of crypto assets. Regulatory Balance: Zcash utilizes optional privacy, which, according to analysts, may provide the project with greater regulatory resilience compared to coins where privacy is mandatory by default. Repricing Privacy: The market has demonstrated that the demand for confidentiality has not disappeared. The Zcash rally has forced investors to re-evaluate all privacy-focused projects, proving that, amid increasing online surveillance, the ability to transact privately has once again become a highly valuable feature. Summary: Zcash is back in the game, bolstered by strong technological improvements that have made its privacy accessible and effective. The sustained nature of this growth will depend on whether the project can convert this speculative momentum into stable growth in user and network activity.
Long
by tradephenomena
XAUUSDXAU/USD – Gold Analysis Gold has made a strong rally today, allowing us to take some solid profits from the upside move. After this impressive push, I’m now looking for a pullback toward the 4,040 zone, which could serve as a healthy retracement before the next leg higher toward the 4,100 target. From a fundamental perspective, gold remains well-supported. Market optimism surrounding a potential U.S. government reopening has improved risk sentiment but also raised expectations of increased fiscal spending, which may weaken the U.S. dollar in the short term. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have eased slightly, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and encouraging further upside. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns keep investors positioned in safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The market still anticipates that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious on rate cuts, which helps maintain gold’s momentum as investors hedge against uncertainty. Technically, I’ll be watching for a controlled retracement toward 4,040, looking for bullish confirmation to rejoin the uptrend and target the 4,100 resistance zone.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Dan-Goldfx
Headwinds persist for oil, but downside looks limitedHeadwinds persist for oil, but downside looks limited Technical factors Oil continues to form lower swings. Although there has been a rebound, it lacks sustained momentum, suggesting it may be only a temporary bounce; the lower-swing structure and bearish EMAs still signal a downtrend. However, the downtrend is also losing strength, as evidenced by the price hasn’t set a new low for seven months. Therefore, if the price breaks to new lows, the downside may be limited, as momentum looks waning. If USOIL falls from here and breaks the previous low at 55.00, the price could fall toward 50.00. Conversely, if the pullback holds above the support at 58.00, the price may build a base before breaking above the higher peak at 62.50, targeting resistance at 66.50. Fundamental factors A key headwind remains supply growing faster than demand. OPEC+ members plan to raise output, stoking oversupply concerns, compounded by the U.S. accelerating production and reducing reliance on foreign supplies due to increased domestic output—currently a net import of crude oil as of October 2025, with net imports around 1.7 million barrels per day, the lowest since 1971. U.S. crude inventories continue to rise, signaling softer domestic demand alongside higher imports. Global economic growth is slowing, weighing on oil demand, particularly from China and other major economies. A stronger U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for other countries, dampening overall demand. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:USOILShort
by KrisadaYoonaisil
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) Eyes Expansion as Liquidity Cycle Turn Risk-OnBitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) surged above $106,000 this week, signaling renewed optimism as macro conditions hint at a liquidity-driven expansion phase. The crypto market is catching tailwinds from a wave of bullish catalysts, including the $2,000 U.S. stimulus rollout, the end of the government shutdown and a shift in Federal Reserve policy toward rate cuts after an extended period of tightening. Quantitative tightening (QT) has officially ended, and Treasury liquidity injections are flooding markets with fresh capital, a backdrop that historically favors risk assets such as Bitcoin. Simultaneously, the long-awaited Clarity Act is expected to provide regulatory transparency for crypto assets, potentially unlocking institutional participation. With Altcoin ETFs reportedly in the pipeline following Bitcoin’s spot ETF success, the broader digital asset market is poised for a significant re-rating in valuation. Technically, Bitcoin remains in a well-defined uptrend, respecting a long-term ascending trendline that dates back to mid-2024. Price has rebounded sharply from the $98K support area, aligning with the trendline that has held through multiple retests, and key weekly swing low. A clean break and close above the $110,000–$112,000 zone could trigger an accelerated move toward the $126,110 all-time high, which marks the next major supply level. Conversely, a failure to maintain trendline support could invite a deeper pullback toward $95,000 or even the $75K region where stronger structural demand sits. However, momentum indicators such as RSI and volume suggest accumulation rather than exhaustion, implying that bulls remain in control as long as macro liquidity continues expanding. More so, the confluence of fundamentals indicate that BTC could be forming a new low that could surge to a new all-time high. With fiscal easing, monetary support, and regulatory clarity converging, Bitcoin may be entering its next major expansion leg — positioning it once again as the bellwether for a renewed risk-on cycle.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Report 10/11/25Report summary Next week’s Tesla shareholder vote on a record $1T performance package is more than governance theatre; it’s a referendum on whether public markets will underwrite a decade-long pivot from “auto + FSD” to “physical-AI” platforms, Robotaxi networks and the Optimus humanoid line, that currently contribute little revenue but anchor most of the equity story. In parallel, Big Tech’s AI capex divergence is reshaping cash-flow visibility and equity multiples: Meta is leaning into an asset-heavy model with a near-term margin drag, Alphabet and Microsoft offset depreciation with cloud monetization, and Apple is preserving an asset-light cash-return profile. Financials add a second macro thread: Bank of America is preparing a returns catch-up plan just as its legacy low-coupon securities book rolls off into higher yields, supporting 2026 net interest income. Policy tape risks eased modestly after a U.S.–China commercial détente that paused tariff escalation and rare-earth restrictions, yet the truce is partial and fragile. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market shows erosion at the edges but retains a firm foundation; headline inflation near 3% has not morphed into the feared tariff-shock, with effective pass-through diluted by exemptions, corporate margins, and supply re-routing. China’s strategic crude stockpiling is quietly putting a floor under oil in the mid-60s even as Western sanctions keep reshuffling barrels. Finally, escalating AI compute demand crystalized in OpenAI’s multiyear cloud commitments, reinforcing the “cash now, depreciation later” story at the hyperscalers. Net-net, the risk mix argues for staying constructive on quality growth and cloud cash engines, tactically owning U.S. cyclicals into year-end liquidity, and hedging policy and single-name event risk around Tesla’s vote and the Supreme Court tariff case. Event rundown and market read The Tesla vote on Nov. 6 would lift Musk’s potential stake from 13% to ~25% contingent on extreme value and operating targets (including a decade path >$8.5T market cap), effectively hard-wiring strategic control over the robot platform build-out. Street frameworks increasingly ascribe minority value to legacy auto: one bank decomposition pegs 12% of equity value to vehicles, 17% to FSD subscriptions, ~45% to Robotaxi, and ~19% to Optimus. Bulls emphasize execution speed and “touching the physical world” advantages, bears note that FSD still requires active supervision and keeps Robotaxi “in park,” lengthening the cash runway to monetization. Big Tech earnings re-ranked AI spenders: Meta’s 2025 capex moved to the low-$70B area with depreciation set to more than double as a share of revenue over the decade; Alphabet lifted 2025 capex guidance into the low-$90Bs but pairs it with accelerating free cash flow and Cloud margins; Microsoft’s Azure growth near 40% and high-40s segment profitability continue to cushion capex; AWS remains the profit engine for Amazon even as depreciation trims margins short-term. In banks, BofA heads into an investor day with a targeted lift in ROTCE toward the high-teens, aided by reinvestment of its massive low-coupon securities book at today’s yields and ongoing buybacks. On policy, Washington and Beijing declared a limited truce, deferrals on rare-earth curbs, tariff hikes paused or partially rolled back, soybean buys resumed, fentanyl-related measures softened, taking the worst-case tail from markets without resolving core tech and export-control disputes. Labor data, while thinned by the shutdown, point to steady initial claims around ~220k and an easing but not collapsing hiring pulse; inflation at ~3% Y/Y remains above target but below spring fears, with tariff revenue and pass-through running lower than headline rates implied. China has been importing >11mb/d crude with an estimated 1.0–1.2mb/d going into storage, helping stabilize Brent near the mid-$60s despite sanctions churn. Finally, OpenAI’s additional ~$38B AWS commitment (on top of very large multicloud deals elsewhere) locks in multi-year compute demand that supports hyperscaler capacity build-outs. Strategic implications For equities, AI capex bifurcation now matters as much as AI narrative. Asset-heavy strategies (notably Meta) structurally raise depreciation and lower reported operating margins before the revenue flywheel fully arrives; models require higher confidence in multi-year usage to justify multiples. Asset-light strategies (Apple) preserve margin and cash returns but risk falling behind in platform infrastructure if they under-index spend. Alphabet and Microsoft sit in the sweet spot where every dollar of capex can be partially monetized immediately via Cloud, smoothing FCF even as D&A climbs. For Tesla, the vote outcome determines governance risk and the market’s tolerance for long-dated, binary optionality. If approved, it likely reduces overhang and keeps the “option value” premium alive; if it fails, the market will rapidly refocus valuation toward autos, FSD take-rates, and energy storage, compressing multiples. Macro-wise, the partial U.S.–China de-escalation, muted tariff pass-through, and still-firm labor base argue against a hard-landing baseline. China’s oil stockpiling should cap the downside in crude unless domestic growth stumbles; it also keeps refined-product margins and shipping spreads interesting. The Fed’s tone, policy modestly restrictive and each meeting “live”, supports a glide path of incremental cuts so long as the jobs picture softens at the margin and inflation drifts lower. Near-term U.S. fiscal frictions are real (e.g., SNAP partial payments during the shutdown), but markets are signaling they’re transitory policy noise, not systemic risk. Asset-by-asset impact and positioning S&P 500 / Dow Jones. Earnings leadership is broadening beyond the megacaps, but multiples remain rich, raising the penalty for misses. The U.S.–China cooling reduces tail risk on supply chains and semis policy without granting a durable peace. Into year-end, the combination of softer-than-feared inflation, resilient employment, and Fed optionality supports an upward bias. Prefer owning quality growth with cloud monetization, cash-rich platforms with operating leverage to AI demand, and select cyclicals tied to capex and freight normalization. Dow breadth should improve if banks deliver ROTCE uplift and industrials benefit from steadier input costs. Hedge event risk around Tesla’s vote with defined-risk put spreads if concentrated exposure exists. Tesla equity. Into the vote, realized volatility will remain elevated. Approval likely sustains the “long-dated options on autonomy + humanoids” premium and keeps multiple discipline at bay near-term; a failure would trigger a rapid de-rating toward auto + FSD fundamentals, especially with post-credit EV demand normalizing after September’s buy-ahead and a soft October print expectation. Portfolio stance: keep single-name sizing disciplined, fund upside with call spreads rather than stock in new money, and balance with short-dated protective puts into and through the meeting if exposure is material. Big Tech complex. Meta’s trajectory becomes a show-me path as depreciation ramps; treat drawdowns as tradable rather than structural until operating leverage from AI products is clearer. Alphabet and Microsoft remain core, with Cloud monetization cushioning capex and the OpenAI/AWS compute wave reinforcing secular demand across all hyperscalers. Apple’s asset-light cash-return story should keep a floor under the multiple while it times AI feature rollouts; treat it as a low-beta core within megacap baskets. DXY / USDJPY. A tempered tariff path and incremental global risk-on tone are dollar-negative at the margin, though the policy-rate gap still supports the greenback on dips. If the Fed leans into a gradual easing glide path while the BoJ remains slow-walking normalization, USDJPY downside is limited absent a surprise in Japanese policy. Bias is for range trading with a mild USD drift lower on better risk appetite; favor funding selective EM and Asia ex-Japan exposures on DXY rallies rather than chasing dollar strength. Crude oil (Brent/WTI). China’s 1.0–1.2mb/d stockbuild rate and spare storage capacity keep a firm floor in the mid-$60s even as sanctions reroute barrels and the IEA projects a temporary surplus. U.S. SPR refills remain slow, so the marginal bid is more Asian than American. With sanctions-related frictions raising transaction costs, prompt spreads can stay choppy. Trading stance: buy dips into the mid-$60s on Brent with conservative profit-taking near low-$70s unless evidence emerges of a meaningful Chinese stockbuild pause. XAUUSD (Gold). With inflation near 3% and policy still modestly restrictive, gold’s macro bid now leans more on central-bank demand and geopolitical hedging than on immediate real-rate collapse. A softer dollar on trade de-escalation helps at the margin. Use weakness driven by risk-on equity squeezes to add tactically; fade spikes that are purely headline-driven absent rate support. Risks and alternative paths The U.S.–China thaw could reverse quickly if export-control or semiconductor policy hardens; chip-license outcomes and any signal on Blackwell-class access will be key. The Supreme Court’s tariff case is a binary headline risk that could re-price cross-border exposures and the dollar. On Tesla, governance uncertainty is material: a failed package would compress the “option on autonomy” premium, spill over into AI-beta sentiment, and test megacap resilience. Meta’s capex path risks a longer-than-expected depreciation overhang if product revenue lags; conversely, faster AI monetization could force a rerate higher. Energy risk skews are two-sided: accelerated Chinese stockbuilding or a shipping disruption lifts crude; a growth wobble in China or a sanctions workaround oversupply pulls it back below $60. U.S. fiscal and shutdown dynamics can interrupt data flow and reduce signal quality precisely when the Fed wants clarity. What to do now possibly Maintain core exposure to quality growth where AI capex has near-term monetization through cloud, add selectively to U.S. banks with credible ROTCE uplift into 2026, and keep a tactical long bias in cyclicals that benefit from steadier input costs and capex. For crude, buy the mid-$60s and harvest in the low-$70s while watching China inventory signals. In FX, sell DXY strength into event relief and keep USDJPY range strategies while the policy-rate gap persists. Around Tesla, reduce gross exposure into the vote if position size is large, use options to express upside while capping downside, and pre-define stop-losses for a non-approval scenario. Maintain gold as a portfolio hedge, adding on dips when dollar strength fades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Crude oil - 10/11/2025Oil prices rose on Monday as optimism grew that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end, boosting demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. The Senate’s progress toward reopening the government lifted market sentiment, and restoring pay to federal workers should improve consumer confidence and spending. WTI prices could rebound to $62 a barrel as risk appetite improves, though concerns remain about rising global supply. U.S. crude inventories are increasing, and stored volumes in Asian waters have doubled amid sanctions that curbed imports to China and India. Indian refiners are sourcing more from the Middle East and the Americas, while Russia’s Lukoil faces disruptions ahead of a U.S. deadline to cease business with the company. Meanwhile, Washington’s one-year sanctions exemption for Hungary has contributed to concerns about oversupply. On the technical side, the crude oil price is testing the resistance of $60, which is the psychological resistance of the round number as well as the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the crude oil market, the Stochastic oscillator is approaching extreme oversold levels, suggesting that a bullish correction may be forthcoming in the upcoming sessions. If this is the case and the price indeed moves up, then the first area of potential resistance might be seen around $62, which is the medium-term resistance level where the price reacted multiple times in the past couple of months, making it a major technical area on the chart. On the other hand, the Bollinger Bands have started contracting late last week, indicating that we may experience sideways movement in the short term before any significant move. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
TVC:USOIL
by antreas_themistokleous_exness
Gold review - 10/11/2025Gold jumped on Monday to a two-week high as weak U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut next month and a softer dollar boosted demand. Recent data showed U.S. job losses in October, a surge in layoffs linked to cost-cutting and AI adoption, and consumer sentiment at its lowest in over three years, largely due to the prolonged government shutdown. With the Senate moving to end the 40-day shutdown, markets now price in a roughly 65% chance of a December rate cut. Given gold’s appeal in low-rate, high-uncertainty environments, an overall bullish outlook is forming, with prices potentially testing the $4,120–$4,130 range soon. From a technical perspective, the price of gold has found sufficient support at $4,000 and has since corrected to the upside, currently on its way to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, just below the $4,200 mark. The moving averages are confirming the overall bullish trend, while the Stochastic oscillator is approaching its extreme overbought levels, hinting that the bullish correction might be short-lived, and a bearish move could slow the projection to the upside. The Bollinger Bands are also contracting further, supporting the bullish momentum losing some steam. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by antreas_themistokleous_exness
What will gold do in the US trading session?📈 Market Structure Price Action: Price has just broken out of the accumulation zone, moving sharply toward the main resistance area. 📊 Trendlines Lower Trendline (Red): Long-term dynamic support — price has bounced multiple times from this level. Upper Trendline (Red): Main descending resistance — price is now approaching this zone. 🧱 Support Zones 3,970,000: Confluence of horizontal support and the lower trendline → key reaction area to monitor. 4,030 – 4,050 (Breakout Zone): Intermediate support if price pulls back after the breakout rally. ⚔️ Resistance Zones 4,100 – 4,115: Strong resistance aligning with the upper trendline and previous highs → possible correction zone. 🎯 Scenario If price gets rejected around 4,115, it could pull back toward the 4,030 – 4,050 breakout zone, or even retest 3,970,000. A clean breakout above 4,115 would confirm stronger bullish continuation. 🧭 Summary Trend: Short-term bullish — currently testing major resistance. Strategy: Watch price action near 4,115; wait for confirmation to re-enter buys around 4,030 – 3,970. 💼 Trading Plan BUY GOLD: 4,030 – 4,028 Stop Loss: 4,018 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips SELL GOLD: 4,115 – 4,117 Stop Loss: 4,127 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AstronautPioneer
1
Dollar Index Pulls Back from a Key HighDollar Index Pulls Back from a Key High As the Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the index is currently trading below its 5 November high, which formed after a false bullish breakout (marked by an arrow) above the 1 August peak — a scenario previously outlined in the post “The Dollar Index Near a Key High.” According to Trading Economics, trader sentiment at the start of the week is being shaped by expectations of comments from ECB and Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for monetary policy. A statement has already come from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who noted that financial conditions in the country are now close to a neutral rate — one that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth. The Australian dollar strengthened following his remarks. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart The previously drawn ascending channel remains relevant for the Dollar Index, with several important technical features: → The channel median has switched its role from support to resistance (as indicated by its colour change from blue to red). → The QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into quarters, is currently acting as support for the DXY. → The index has fallen below the psychological level of 100 points. It appears that the 3.7% rally in the Dollar Index since mid-September has attracted sellers, while late buyers may have been trapped near the top of the recent move. Additional support may be found near 99.45, where a double-top pattern (A–B) previously formed. However, if this level is breached, the DXY could extend its decline towards the lower boundary of the channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
8
Can One Company Control Computing's Future?Google has executed a strategic transformation from a digital advertising platform to a full-stack technology infrastructure provider, positioning itself to dominate the next era of computation through proprietary hardware and breakthrough scientific discoveries. The company's vertical integration strategy centers on three pillars: custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for AI workloads, quantum computing breakthroughs with verifiable advantages, and Nobel Prize-winning drug discovery capabilities through AlphaFold. This approach creates formidable competitive barriers by controlling foundational computational infrastructure rather than relying on commodity hardware. The TPU strategy exemplifies Google's infrastructure lock-in model. By designing specialized chips optimized for machine learning tasks, Google achieved superior energy efficiency and performance scaling compared to general-purpose processors. The company's multibillion-dollar deal with Anthropic, deploying up to one million TPUs, transforms a potential cost center into a profit generator while locking competitors into Google's ecosystem. This technical dependence makes migration to rival platforms financially prohibitive, ensuring Google monetizes a significant portion of the generative AI market through its cloud services regardless of which AI models succeed. Google's quantum computing achievement represents a paradigm shift from theoretical benchmarks to practical utility. The Willow chip's "Verifiable Quantum Advantage" demonstrates a 13,000-times speedup over classical supercomputers in physics simulations, with immediate applications in molecular structure mapping for drug discovery and materials science. Meanwhile, AlphaFold delivers quantifiable economic impact, reducing Phase I drug development costs by approximately 30% from over $100 million to $70 million per candidate. Isomorphic Labs has secured nearly $3 billion in pharmaceutical partnerships, validating this high-margin revenue stream independent of advertising. The geopolitical implications are profound. Google holds the second-highest number of quantum technology patents globally, with strategic IP covering essential scaling technologies like chip tiling and error correction. This intellectual property portfolio creates a technical chokepoint, positioning Google as a mandatory licensing partner for nations seeking to deploy quantum technology. Combined with the dual-use nature of quantum computing for both commercial and military applications, Google's dominance extends beyond market competition to national security infrastructure. This convergence of proprietary hardware, scientific breakthroughs, and IP control justifies premium valuations as Google transitions from cyclical advertising dependence to an indispensable deep-tech infrastructure provider.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by UDIS_View
GBPUSD Approaching Key Resistance Near 1.3245GBPUSD Approaching Key Resistance Near 1.3245 — Possible Bearish Rejection Ahead GBPUSD is showing a strong recovery after last week’s drop, but the overall structure remains bearish. Price is approaching the 1.3245 resistance area, aligned with a bearish pattern, which has acted as a major barrier multiple times. This is evident on the left side of the chart, where a major resistance area is located around the current price level. If buyers fail to push above this zone, a bearish rejection could follow, leading to a potential pullback toward: 🎯 1.3030 (first target) 🎯 1.2900 (second target) You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
6
Nasdaq 100 Rebounds as Traders Anticipate End of the US ShutdownNasdaq 100 Rebounds as Traders Anticipate End of the US Shutdown As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index has started the week on a positive note amid growing expectations that the longest government shutdown in US history may soon come to an end. According to Reuters, a bill has been introduced in the Senate proposing amendments to extend government funding until 30 January. The news acted as a bullish catalyst for equity markets. Still, the question remains – is the risk truly behind us? Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 on 4 November, we: → Drew an ascending channel; → Noted signs of momentum exhaustion, as mentioned in our previous headline. Since then, price action has evolved as follows: → The lower boundary of the channel provided support (1), prompting a brief rebound; → The 25,770 level acted as resistance (2) on two occasions, strengthening the bears’ confidence to push for a downside breakout — which ultimately succeeded. The index’s subsequent movements have now more clearly outlined the formation of a descending channel (shown in red). From the demand-side perspective: → After a false bearish breakout below 24,680 (showing characteristics of a Liquidity Grab pattern), the market staged an aggressive rally from point B; → Today’s session opened with a bullish gap, and the price has moved above the red median line. From the supply-side perspective: → The 25,500 level, where sellers gained control during the previous channel breakout, may now act as resistance; → If the A→B move is viewed as an impulse, today’s rally appears to be a corrective rebound consistent with Fibonacci proportions — suggesting that downward momentum could resume within the red channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
Gold 30m Outlook: Fundamentals Meet Technical Crossroads1. Fundamental Overview The price of Gold (XAU/USD) has recently jumped to a two-week high, buoyed by expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December and growing global growth concerns. Reuters Key drivers: Weaker U.S. economic data (job losses, retail weakness) are reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold (non-yielding asset). Safe-haven demand remains elevated amid geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and central-bank buying. Head-winds: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showing strength and rate-cut expectations being questioned. Recent profit-taking after strong rally: gold corrected about 11% from its October highs. Structural outlook remains bullish for medium-term, according to some institutions: large central-bank purchases, de-dollarisation flows, and weak growth support gold over time. Fundamental bias summary: Neutral-to-bullish overall, conditional on macro data and Fed policy. Short-term risk of correction is present because of recent excesses. 2.Technical Analysis (30-Minute / Short Term) On the 4-hour and daily charts the price remains below several key moving averages: e.g., 20 SMA ~ USD 4,002, 100 SMA ~ USD 4,105. Price is in a consolidation range around USD 4,000–4,050, forming a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. According to short-term technical snapshots: Upside target if momentum builds: USD 4,050+ zone. Downside risk if breakdown: USD 3,950-3,900 support area. Key pivot/resistance level appears near USD 4,050–4,060. If price fails here, it may lead to a sharp pullback. Momentum indicators (RSI, volume) show weak conviction, suggesting range-bound or corrective phase rather than strong trending. Technical bias summary: Tilt slightly bullish only if price breaks above ~USD 4,050 with volume. Otherwise, downside risks and range trapping remain higher-probability. 3. Trade Plan & Key Levels Entry Strategy (30-minute timeframe): Bullish Scenario: Enter long if price closes above USD 4,050 and retests it, with momentum. Stop: ~USD 3,995 (just below support) Target: First leg ~USD 4,150, stretch to ~USD 4,250 if strong. Bearish Scenario: If price rejects near USD 4,050–4,060 and breaks below ~USD 3,990, then short. Stop: ~USD 4,070 Target: USD 3,900–3,850 zone. Avoid/Wait: If price remains stuck between ~USD 4,000-4,050 without clear trigger—better skip until directional clarity. Support & Resistance Levels to Note: Resistance: USD 4,050-4,060 Support: USD 3,950-3,900 Intraday pivot: ~USD 4,000 Risk Management: Given the 30 m timeframe and gold’s volatility, keep position sizes conservative, place stops strictly, and avoid chasing breakout without confirmation. 4. My View for Today Given the current fundamentals and technicals my preferred bias is slightly bullish if we see a trigger. The macro backdrop supports gold (rate-cut hopes, safe-haven flows), but the technicals demand a breakout for momentum. If no breakout, the default is sideways to mildly bearish (range or pullback). I’ll lean long only after breakout above ~USD 4,050. Otherwise treat any rally as potential short opportunity. 📈 Stay patient – gold is near a key decision zone. Wait for clear 30 m confirmation before entering trades. #Gold #XAUUSD #SignalAndAnalysis30m #GoldTrading #AthensBySahan #ForexSriLanka #SmartTrading #PriceAction
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan