GOLD surpasses $4,140/ounce, signaling a new cycleOANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in the Asian session on November 11, trading around $4,148/ounce, up $32 in the morning alone, after rising nearly 3% in the previous session. The two-day rally, the strongest since May, reflects the defensive sentiment of global investors in the face of a weakening US economic outlook and the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) soon shifting monetary policy.
Bloomberg said gold maintained its gains after the US Senate approved a bipartisan deal to end the longest government shutdown in history, supported by President Donald Trump. The bill is expected to pass the House of Representatives this week by a 60-40 vote, paving the way for the resumption of work for hundreds of thousands of federal workers and stalled food aid.
The political situation has eased somewhat, but investors remain cautious. The reopening of the government means that a slew of delayed economic data will soon be released, which could shed more light on the growth picture. Bloomberg analysts said the upcoming data “are likely to show a worsening economic outlook,” reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut sooner than expected.
The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is now above 65%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Falling bond yields and a weak dollar have pushed money back into gold, the traditional safe haven, especially as the global rate-hike cycle ends and US fiscal risks emerge.
In the international market, gold is still up more than 50% since the beginning of the year, despite a short-term correction last month. Net buying from central banks, especially in Asia and the Middle East, and increased physical gold investment in the private sector, continue to be the core drivers for the prolonged bull cycle.
Commentary: Gold’s Return as a Barometer of US Economic Confidence
Gold’s November rally was more than a short-term political response. It reflected a deeper shift in global market sentiment: that the US dollar is losing its primacy amid rising debt, fiscal spending and domestic political divisions.
While U.S. stock markets hover around historic highs, institutional investors are beginning to rebalance their portfolios in a defensive direction, increasing their exposure to precious metals and government bonds. At the same time, central banks in China, India and Turkey continue to accumulate gold, a move that makes both financial and geopolitical sense, as they seek to reduce their dependence on the dollar payment system.
If the Fed does ease later in the year, gold could consolidate above $4,000 an ounce as a new price level, while risk assets face correction pressure. In an era where U.S. financial stability is no longer a given, the precious metal is returning to its old role as a gauge of confidence in the U.S. currency and government.
Technical analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold prices are consolidating above the $3,970–$3,850/oz support zone, after bouncing back from the 0.382 Fibonacci line ($3,972) and remaining within the rising price channel (channel a) formed since July. The price structure suggests that a correction has been completed, as the recovery in buying pressure pushed the price above the short-term MA around $4,055, towards the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $4,128, which is currently a key short-term resistance zone.
The RSI has recovered from the 40 zone to near 60, indicating a return of bullish momentum, while recent daily candles have all closed above the medium-term uptrend line. A firm close above $4,130 could confirm the bullish trend, opening a new bullish cycle with the next target at $4,216, and further to the $4,380/oz zone, the upper end of the current price channel. Conversely, a loss of $3,940 would weaken the bullish structure and send gold back to the $3,850–$3,870 accumulation zone.
• Observation:
Gold is showing signs of forming a new base above the $4,000 area, reinforcing the scenario of a medium-term bullish cycle if it breaks the $4,130 resistance. Short-term profit-taking pressure may appear, but the main trend is currently leaning positive in the second half of November.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4180 - 4178⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4184
→Take Profit 1 4172
↨
→Take Profit 2 4166
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4088 - 4090⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4084
→Take Profit 1 4096
↨
→Take Profit 2 4102
