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Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD Is Indecisive ?EUR/USD is trading with a bearish overall market structure on the 1-hour timeframe, currently below the key 1.1600 level. The pair is consolidating near resistance, with technical signals pointing to potential downside continuation unless new bullish catalysts emerge.​ Technical Market Structure Recent price rallied off the November low, with the current session showing consolidation just below resistance around 1.1565–1.1610. Key support levels to watch are 1.1538 (recent H1 swing low), 1.1520, and 1.1460. A break below these could accelerate a move towards 1.1405. The moving averages on the chart show a crossover pattern, suggesting short-term bullish exhaustion and possible transition back to bearish momentum. Short-term corrective moves are possible up to 1.1590–1.1610, but rejection here could favor another wave down.​ Elliott Wave and price envelope analysis forecast consolidation or short-lived correction followed by decline toward 1.1450 or lower. Fundamental Analysis Fed rate cut bets are driving market dynamics. The FOMC lowered rates by 25 basis points at the last meeting, and although another cut in December is possible, the decision is split among policymakers, causing uncertainty.​​ Recent weak U.S. labor data and political gridlock are weighing on the dollar, supporting euro strength in the very short term.​ ECB policymakers are signaling steady rates, with limited downside for the euro and potential for euro strength over the coming months if the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle.​ Upbeat Eurozone data (ZEW sentiment, GDP, investor confidence) due this week could boost EUR/USD, but bearish risk remains if Fed rate cut expectations fade or U.S. macro data improves. Potential Daily Movement Bias leans bearish for the day unless EUR/USD can break and hold above 1.1590–1.1610, which could open upside to 1.1700. Downside targets for further weakness include 1.1530, then 1.1460, and potentially 1.1405 if support fails. In the event of renewed risk-on sentiment from U.S. shutdown resolution or positive Euro data, a push to the next resistance zone (1.1610–1.1690) is possible, but strong sellers remain active at these levels.​ Key Levels Table Zone Level Action Resistance 1.1590–1.1610 Sell/reject if fails Resistance 1.1690–1.1770 Strong sellers above Support 1.1530–1.1460 Watch for breaks down Support 1.1405 Bearish extension zone Upside Target 1.1700+ Bullish if breakout Overall, expect choppy intraday price action with a bearish tilt unless external fundamentals force a decisive bullish breakout above 1.1610 resistance.
by GlazeInvestments
Mina , the game changer .It’ll probably be wise to have some in this price. The tech behind it is crazy although it held down for long , the first ones always made huge profits made for investors sadly for mina it launched in a terrible time with the team underestimated the complexity of delivering promises for an advanced tech like Mina . I’m personally in a deep loss despite adding frequently from 0.60 $ . The first zk layer 1 constant size blockchain which you can build almost everything in crypto world zero to the top ZK . It’s no doubt undervalued and probably one of the most undervalued projects in the market . With the geek genius team busy coding and transparent governance it’ll find the real price soon .
CRYPTO:MINAUSD
by mastershark
Nokia:Inverted Head and Shoulders Structure + Retest of BreakoutOn the weekly chart of Nokia, a classic Inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern has formed. The breakout above the neckline occurred with increased volume, confirming the strength of the move. Currently, the price is undergoing a standard technical retest of the neckline from above — a typical phase before a potential continuation higher. The structure remains active: the projected height (H) points to an initial target at $5.48, based on the distance from the neckline to the head. If momentum continues, Fibonacci extension targets are located at $6.18 (1.272), $6.55 (1.414), and $7.08 (1.618). Technical view: the retest of the neckline is happening on declining volume, strengthening the probability of a bullish reversal. EMA 50/100/200 are beginning to align in a bullish crossover. The ascending channel structure also supports the upward movement. Fundamentals: Nokia is progressing with its strategic programs in 5G and upcoming 6G network technologies, reinforcing its long-term growth prospects. Improved financial performance and the recovery in demand for telecommunications infrastructure amid global digitalization trends continue to support investor interest in the stock. The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is confirmed by the breakout and current retest. As long as the price holds above the neckline, the bullish scenario toward $5.48 and beyond remains intact. This is a medium-term trend reversal structure — strong setups like this form the foundation for major moves. Don’t miss them.
NYSE:NOKLong
by TotoshkaTrades
$LLY: Decision Zone — Wedge Breakout or Retest of 685Eli Lilly (LLY) rebounded off the long-term trendline and weekly demand box (≈622–686) and is compressing inside a descending wedge. Bullish path (blue): a clean break and retest of wedge resistance opens room toward the prior extension/marker near ~970. Bearish path (red): rejection at the wedge cap could send price back to the green trendline for a higher-low around ~685 before another attempt up. News supporting the bullish path: 1- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) UK price hike: Lilly will lift UK list prices by up to ~170% from Sept 1, 2025 (e.g., highest doses from ~£122 to ~£330), with pharmacies flagging stockpiling/shortages. This supports revenue/ASP but may draw scrutiny. 2- Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 (orforglipron, oral GLP-1): trial met primary & key secondary endpoints in patients with obesity/overweight and Type-2 diabetes; company guiding to global regulatory submissions this year. Reports cite ~10.5% mean weight loss at the top dose. Sentiment tailwind for the obesity franchise. Invalidation: weekly close below ~622. Not financial advice :)
NYSE:LLYLong
by pluckyHead76994
8
Oruka Therapeutics, Inc. (ORKA) AnalysisCompany Overview: Oruka Therapeutics NASDAQ:ORKA is a clinical-stage biotech focused on next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for psoriasis and autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, positioning itself in one of biotech’s most durable, high-value markets. Key Catalysts: Breakthrough Half-Life Data: Lead asset ORKA-001 achieved a record 100-day half-life in Phase 1, opening the door to once-yearly dosing — a massive convenience and adherence advantage over current standard biologics like Skyrizi and other IL-23 inhibitors. A Phase 2a trial is slated for late 2025, serving as the next major value-inflection point. Deep Immunology Pipeline: ORKA-002 (IL-17A/F) expands the platform into another validated inflammatory axis. Additional programs targeting broader inflammatory pathways give ORKA multi-shot-on-goal potential across dermatology and immunology. Strong Balance Sheet & Runway: Backed by $455M in funding and cash runway through 2027, the company can run multiple trials in parallel without near-term dilution pressure — a key edge for a clinical-stage biotech. Massive Market Opportunity: The global psoriasis market is ~$30B, dominated by biologics — making a once-yearly, high-efficacy therapy highly disruptive. Investment Outlook: Bullish above: $22–$23 Target: $55–$56 Driven by best-in-class dosing potential, multiple upcoming clinical readouts, and strong funding to reach value-creating milestones. 📢 ORKA — aiming to redefine psoriasis treatment with ultra-long-acting biologics.
NASDAQ:ORKALong
by Richtv_official
AUDUSD AT SELL ZONE, POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITYHello traders, November is a great month to trade. Here's my point of view about OANDA:AUDUSD TECHNICALLY: Last weeks we had a massive drop followed by a consolidation and this week we started to retrace however higher time frames scream bearish momentum due to dollar strength. I personally did a full breakdown explaining the US DOLLAR TECHNICAL SETUP. This week price IN OANDA:AUDUSD started to retrace. Right now, price is near a strong orderblock I personally see more DOWNSIDE IN THIS PAIR. I'd like to see OANDA:AUDUSD drop from here. As I have been... and will be until proven otherwise. I will continue with my bearish biais only if price stay Below the red zone H4 BEARISH orderblock. Always with strict risk management & psychology FUNDAMENTALLY: The record-breaking U.S. government shutdown is nearing an end after moderate Senate Democrats agreed to back a deal to reopen the government and fund key departments. This might be bullish for the dollar and that BY NEGATIVE CORRELATION .../USD BEARISH. Also bullish for indicies... KEEP an eye ON! All eyes on the market sentiment everything can change quickly! adapt & capitalize it ! We have seversal years trading the financial markets You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
DXY — Range Structure HoldsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) started the week trading just below a bearish distribution fractal low at 99.321. Price holds inside a short-term bearish range between 99.000 (low) and 99.500 (high) while still operating within the broader daily bullish structure. DXY is currently moving through the daily imbalance cap near 99.035, sitting in the premium zone — compression remains active as larger participants stay patient. Market Structure Mapping (MSM) shows price tightening in that upper zone — the calm before the bigger players step in. Market Structure Mapping (MSM) shows price pressing into the daily imbalance high near 99.035, lining up with the range-low fractal around 99.032. That’s the lower edge of Monday’s structure — tight, clean, and holding steady. Volume Flow Analytics (VFA) points to order-flow absorption — buyers keep hitting the tape, but liquidity keeps taking the other side. It’s that slow-burn type of session where participation fades and bigger players quietly build positions under the surface. If that pattern holds, price could drift back toward the discount area once participation increases. No rush — London already had its short trade this morning. Now it’s just about waiting for confirmed order flow before taking the next setup. The dollar’s steady as Washington works on a funding deal to end the government shutdown, calming market nerves. Ten-year Treasury yields hover just above 4.1 %, keeping a floor under USD as investors still get paid to hold dollars. Inflation’s sitting near 3 %, growth data is mixed, and delayed reports mean traders are reacting more to headlines than numbers. For now, yields and improving political tone offer support — but it’s not bulletproof. If debt or growth headlines turn sour again, that support can fade fast. 🦅 CORE5 RULE: Slow days build strong traders. Wait for the flow, not the noise. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD) AnalysisCompany Overview: Modine Manufacturing Co. NYSE:MOD is a global leader in thermal management solutions serving automotive, industrial, commercial, and now rapidly growing AI data center markets. The company offers investors exposure to the electrification, energy-efficiency, and digital infrastructure megatrends. Key Growth Drivers: AI Data Center Tailwind: MOD is riding the AI infrastructure boom, with Q1 2026 sales up 3% YoY, driven by demand for its precision cooling systems that support high-performance computing environments. Margin Expansion via Mix Shift: A deliberate focus on high-margin segments—notably data centers and EV thermal systems—has pushed profitability to 24.8% gross margin and 10.7% EBIT margin, underscoring operational excellence and strong cash generation. Electrification & Energy Efficiency: MOD’s solutions align with ESG and sustainability initiatives, providing energy-efficient heat transfer systems for EVs, buildings, and industrial applications. Diversified Portfolio: Global footprint and multi-end-market exposure reduce cyclicality and support durable, long-term growth in green and digital infrastructure. Why It Matters for Investors: ✅ Direct play on AI data center cooling ✅ Strong, improving margins ✅ ESG-aligned, electrification-driven demand ✅ Disciplined portfolio optimization (80/20 execution) Investment Outlook: Bullish above: $140–$142 Upside Target: $230–$235 Driven by AI infrastructure growth, premium thermal solutions, and continued margin expansion. 📌 MOD — powering the thermal backbone of AI, EVs, and sustainable infrastructure. 💡🌍
NYSE:MODLong
by Richtv_official
EUR/USD: A short position may be coming soon.💹 **EUR/USD Update:** The 1.1580–1.1600 zone remains a **strong resistance area** for EUR/USD. Next week, the pair may attempt to break above this level. However, if it fails to do so, we could see a **pullback toward 1.1400**, and possibly even **1.1300**, which stands as a key **support zone**. 👉 Keep an eye on price action around these levels — a rejection here could signal a potential short opportunity.
Short
by BlackDiamond_SpecialEa
4
GOLD ANALYSIS BASED ON REAL SMART MONEY ORDERS (11/10/2025)💛 Welcome to Trade with DECRYPTERS! ( 11/10/2025) Your trusted source for Smart Money insights, Real-Time Levels & Market Direction. Let’s decode what’s driving GOLD this week 👇 #GoldSurge #GoldPrice #SafeHaven #PreciousMetals #CentralBankBuy #USDIndex #GoldTrading #GlobalMacro #USChinaTrade #FedWatch #MarketPulse #TradeWithDecrypters 📊 Market Pulse Gold surged +1.85% to $4,074.92/oz on Nov 10, 2025, rebounding sharply from Friday’s ~$4,000 close. This move came amid US-China trade talks, geopolitical tensions, and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations — fueling another wave of safe-haven demand. 💹 DXY (~100.20) ticked higher but capped further gains as traders weighed mixed Fed signals and trade optimism. 🏦 Central Banks continued heavy accumulation, with Q3 2025 demand hitting 1,313 tonnes ($146 B) — led by China’s 11th straight month of buying and Poland’s diversification push. These flows continue to support prices even as the dollar firms. 🌍 Geopolitics & Safe-Haven Demand ⚔️ U.S.–China tensions + Mideast conflicts are boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. 📈 ETF inflows stand at +619 tonnes YTD, while physical bar & coin demand jumped +17% YoY to 316 tonnes in Q3. Investors remain defensive, building exposure across multiple gold-linked assets as volatility picks up. 🔎 What to Watch Next 📅 Nov 12 – U.S. CPI Report (~3.0% core expected) → Hotter data = Fed pause → short-term pressure on gold 📅 Nov 13 – U.S. PPI & Jobless Claims → Softer labor data = higher rate-cut odds → bullish for gold ⚡ Bonus Triggers: Any U.S.–China trade breakthroughs or Middle East escalations could spark quick volatility spikes off nearby support zones. 🧭 Technical Framework (Smart Money Map) 💰 Current Price: ~$4,075 (+1.85% / 24h) 📉 Volatility Range: $4,020 – $4,100 Smart Money Sell Area: $4,080 – $4,100 → Institutional resistance cluster – watch for rejection Scalp Sell Zone: $4,050 – $4,065 → Ideal for short-term liquidity fades Scalp Buy Zone: $4,020 – $4,030 → Minor bounce region Smart Money Buy Pool: $3,980 – $4,000 → Key accumulation zone for institutional bids 🎯 Conclusion – Bullish Bias with Pullback Risks Gold’s strong rebound shows safe-haven and central-bank support still dominate, even as DXY limits upside. Trend bias remains bullish, but expect controlled pullbacks within the current consolidation. 📊 Above $4,100 → targets $4,200 + 📉 Below $4,020 → tests $3,980–$4,000 buy zone 💬 Trade Smart — Trade with DECRYPTERS ⚡ Gold surge, safe-haven demand, central-bank buying, USD index, U.S.–China trade, Fed rate-cut expectations, geopolitical risk, ETF inflows, physical bullion, Smart Money map.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
XAUUSD – PRICE STRUCTURE UPDATE: MAINTAINING THE TRADING...💛 XAUUSD – PRICE STRUCTURE UPDATE: MAINTAINING THE TRADING SCENARIO 🎯 🌤 Overview Hello everyone 💬 The price structure of gold is still on track as per the previous scenario — those who bought according to the earlier plan might have already profited and should continue to hold their position. The price in the early Asian session has risen steadily, breaking through the 4021 area, confirming a short-term uptrend and aiming to retest the upper edge of the H4 price channel. This is a positive signal before the market might enter a deeper correction in the mid-week sessions. In terms of news, the latest statement from US President Trump indicates that the government shutdown might soon end — this is a factor that could cause significant USD volatility, thereby having a short-term impact on gold prices. 💹 Technical Analysis 📈 On the H4 timeframe, the price remains within the medium-term uptrend channel, maintaining the structure of “higher lows.” 🟣 The break of the 4021 area confirms that bullish momentum is prevailing, and the Sell Zone Liquidity area of 4090–4100 continues to be a short-term target for retesting. 🔹 After reaching this area, a correction is expected towards the 3920 – 3785 area (Buy Zone Fibonacci) – where buyers might return strongly. 💫 The current price signal perfectly aligns with the previous technical scenario, with no need to change the trading plan. 🎯 Reference Trading Plan 💢 SELL Scenario (short-term) Entry: 4098–4102 ｜ SL: 4112 TP: 4078 – 4025 – 3998 – 3920 – 3875 – 3785 💖 BUY Scenario (long-term strategy) Entry: 3785–3789 ｜ SL: 3777 TP: 3810 – 3865 – 3925 – 3988 🌷 Conclusion Gold prices are moving exactly as predicted by the structure 💛 Be patient, stay disciplined, and stick to the key price areas – this is the time when persistence will provide the greatest advantage.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
1
BTCUSD – Perfect Mid-Channel Touch. Eyes on 110K📉 BTCUSD – Perfect Mid-Channel Touch. Eyes on 110K BTCUSD – Perfect Mid-Channel Touch. Eyes on 110K 🔁📈 Price bounced beautifully off Channel Support ~98,986 and is now hovering just above Mid S/R at 104,634 . That’s the make-or-break zone . A move toward Top Channel Resistance ~110,080 seems likely — but watch that interaction closely. No “traps,” no fluff — this is a textbook channel play. 🎯 Targets Above: • Target 1: 120–122K • Target 2: 138.8K 📉 Supports Below: • Mid Channel: 104,634 • Channel Support: 98,986 • Technical Support: 97,389 → 96,281 ⚠️ If BTC breaks below the mid-line again, bears may try to retest the green base. For now — structure holds. Trading Wisdom 📜 You don’t chase Bitcoin. You position around it. Let the structure guide you. The crowd reacts — the Professor prepares. Disclaimer: I’m just sharing wisdom, not instructions. No licenses, no guarantees — just years of trading scars and precision chartwork. Be smart, protect your capital, and don’t copy blindly. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
Reassessing Copper’s Strength in a Shifting Macro CycleGradual Demand Recovery, Tightening Inventories Copper leans bullish after the recent decline. While demand is still uneven, it is setting itself up to boom over the following few months; factors like supply constraints and a softening dollar are also shifting the balance upward. On the demand side: China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in October, marking the seventh straight month of contraction, underscoring that the recovery remains fragile. Downstream restocking appears limited, and end-user demand remains wary. Having said that, overall, the narrative of collapsing global demand, outside of China, is beginning to soften . The long-term projections are even more bullish, expecting global copper demand to rise by 40% by 2040. Growth is being underpinned by: • energy transition spending (grid upgrades, renewables) • increasing digital/industrial usage (data centres, new infrastructure) • regional growth in Asia (outside China) Source: Reuters Meanwhile, supply issues remain intact. The global refined copper market is now projected to face a 150,000-ton shortage in 2026, reversing the earlier forecast of a 209,000-ton surplus, as output growth slows. Mine disruptions in Congo in June and those in Chile and Indonesia in the latter half of this year have already prompted the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) to revise yearly growth figures in mine production down to 1.3% from April’s 2.3% guidance. Source: UNCTAD Though the industry body expects mine output to rise by 2.3% again next year, the refining output is expected to only grow by 0.9% as against this year’s 3.5% growth. Powell’s Pause and the Dollar Dilemma The Federal Reserve’s October 29 decision to cut rates by 25 bps was unmistakably dovish. Still, Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that a further cut in December is “ not a foregone conclusion ”. He also remarked that policy is being conducted in a context of uncertainty (“driving in the fog”) due to delayed data from the government shutdown. This has led to lower market expectation of another rate cut in December, with the probability falling to 63% from 92% a month ago. The dollar index has also shot up 1.5% over five sessions; dollar and copper prices move inversely. Source: CME FedWatch tool Having said that, labour data is inclined to the Fed being biased toward further easing. Jobs were likely lost in October across both the government and retail sectors, with over 20,000 positions shed from government payrolls. Though the October data would not be published, an estimate from the Chicago Federal Reserve indicated that the unemployment rate edged up from September’s 4.35% to 4.4%. A Mean-Reverting Ratio? The long-term copper-gold ratio is also at a multi-decade low. The rise in this ratio usually indicates a “risk-on” thesis, where appetite for safe assets falls, and growth drivers like copper experience rising demand. The thesis emerging from the current lows, though, is more about mean reversion than a “risk-off” sentiment, especially when fundamentals for both—high demand and soft supply—hold true for copper at the moment. The ratio is based on U.S. prices, which plunged in July this year when copper was excluded from Trump’s tariffs. Gold’s rise, on the other hand, is owing to more nuanced factors. Buying from financial investors shot up this year owing to increased geopolitical risk and a rethinking of the USD dominance narrative. Retail investors joined in later, seeing the price soar. Cumulatively, this has brought the CGR to its lowest in almost 30 years, and is presently near levels it has also shot up from on multiple occasions before. Historical Trade Set-up Open interest for options for the December contract reflects a highly bullish view, with a high build-up of near and deep OTM calls. The OI put-call ratio stands at an unequivocally bullish 0.54. Source: CME QuikStrike Similar scenarios have lifted copper before, be it the demand-side push post-COVID, or the upward pressure on copper prices seen in 2010 due to supply disruptions. Over the second leg of copper’s uptrend in 2021, the front-month copper futures rose from USD 4.603/lb to a high of USD 5.280/lb. Given the CME copper futures contract size of 25,000 pounds, this translates to a gross mark-to-market profit of USD 16,925 per contract over the duration of the move: PnL = (5.280 − 4.603) × 25,000 = USD 16,925 Alternatively, the same view could be expressed using CME Micro Copper futures, which represent 1/10th the notional of the standard contract, allowing for more granular exposure and lower capital requirements. With three mine disruptions this year and new avenues emerging for copper to be deployed, both factors could trigger a repeat of past trends. Technical indicators have also started showing early signs of a rebound; RSI has begun to tick upward, and support was successfully sought above S1. Overall, copper continues to offer a compelling barometer of macro reflation, especially with strong fundamentals just as inventories tighten, and now that monetary policy also seems to be turning. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs at tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
BTC Rebound Into HTF Supply: Harvest Zones Mapped__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is rebounding from last week’s drawdown but is pressing directly into stacked higher-timeframe supply. Structure remains mixed: short-term strength versus a 12H downtrend and a neutral-sell macro backdrop. Momentum: Cautious rebound within a broader mixed trend; rallies face HTF supply near 106,900–107,300. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 106,900–107,300; 108,700–109,700; 110,400–111,700 - Supports (HTF/LTF): 105,200–105,600 (tactical); 100,100–100,400 (2H/12H floors); 99,150–99,280 (4H/6H cluster) Volumes: Overall normal to moderate; notable spikes occurred on lower timeframes during the reversal. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D up, 12H down; 6H/4H/2H down; 1H/30m/15m up. Short-term momentum is improving but runs into HTF pivot-high bands. Harvest zones: 100,200 (Cluster A) / 99,100–99,300 (Cluster B) — ideal dip-buy zones for inverse pyramiding if momentum confirms. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE; it tempers the rebound and argues for selectivity and confirmation before longs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant context is a corrective rebound into resistance; adopt a patient, confirmation-first stance. Global bias: Neutral sell while below 106,900–107,300; invalidation if price reclaims and holds above 107,300 on a 4H–1D basis. Opportunities: - Buy-the-dip: 100,100–100,400 with ≥2H bullish reversal; scale only on improving 12H momentum. - Breakout buy: 4H close and retest-hold above 107,300 opens 108,700–109,700. - Tactical sell: Fade 106,900–107,300 rejection (2H–4H confirmation), targeting 105,600 then 104,800–105,000. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 100,100 would invalidate the shallow-dip long and open a test of ~99,200. - Sustained closes below ~99,100 risk a larger leg down and shift bias bearish. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - US CPI print and UST 10Y/30Y auctions may move yields and crypto liquidity. - Government shutdown resolution headlines improved risk appetite, but durability is unproven. - Fed cut 25bp with QT set to end Dec 1; guidance remains cautious. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 100,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 94,200–96,200 (-6%/-4% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (106,900–107,300) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (not provided) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes are mixed but lean down on 12H, while intraday frames have turned up into overhead supply. 1D: Uptrend attempt, but price is still below key pivot-high bands; needs a clean reclaim above 107,300 to unlock higher liquidity. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Down or corrective; rallies into 106,900–107,300 and 108,700–109,700 require proof. 100,100–100,400 is the prime reaction zone; 99,150–99,280 is the deeper defense. 1H/30m/15m: Up and constructive, forming higher lows into resistance; best risk-reward comes from confirmed dips, not late chases into supply. Major confluence: Tight HTF demand clusters at 100–99k align with the neutral-sell macro regime, reinforcing patience and precision. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is balanced-to-cautious and can swing intraday liquidity, while on-chain remains defensive. Macro events: CPI and UST auctions are near-term volatility catalysts; shutdown resolution headlines boosted risk appetite; the Fed’s 25bp cut with QT ending Dec 1 keeps policy in a “modestly easier but cautious” lane. Bitcoin analysis: Reclaimed above 105k with key resistance 110–111k; largest overhead liquidity at 112–117k leaves squeeze potential if reclaimed; below, the CME gap near 104,160 is a magnet on weakness. On-chain data: Price below STH cost basis with continued LTH distribution and defensive options skew — a fragile equilibrium needing a firm reclaim above 112–113k for validation. Expected impact: Until 107,300+ is reclaimed, macro/on-chain caution aligns with a conservative, buy-the-dip-or-breakout approach; upside fuel exists above 110–111k if catalysts cooperate. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is attempting a rebound into heavy resistance with a neutral-sell macro tone. - Trend: Neutral with a bearish lean on 12H; short-term uptrends are pressing into HTF supply. - Best setup: Confirmed dip-buys at 100,100–100,400, or a 4H reclaim/hold above 107,300 for a squeeze toward 108,700–109,700. - Macro factor: CPI and UST auctions may drive liquidity and mark-to-market risk. Stay disciplined: wait for the signal at the floors or the clean reclaim above resistance — don’t get caught mid-raid in the fog.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Arweave – The Forgotten Web3 Infrastructure Gem Arweave – The Forgotten Web3 Infrastructure Gem 🌐🧠 ARUSDT just bounced from a brutal multi-year base near $5 — but this isn’t just another altcoin. Arweave powers the permanent web. A decentralized data layer where information lives forever — not 30 days, not 30 years. Forever. It’s Bitcoin for storage, backed by the MIT License (2025) and built for one mission: data immortality . What’s wild? Major chains and dApps already use it to store: NFT metadata On-chain governance archives Front-ends for fully decentralized apps 📊 Chartwise: $5.42 current $16.98 first key resistance $45.44 → $71.07 → $113.53 are the next Fibonacci zones if this cycle fully rotates The rabbit hole is deep. But if the internet ever truly decentralizes, Arweave will be the hard drive it lives on. Perspective Shift 🔄 Most people chase tokens that “do something.” Arweave stores the entire narrative. And in a digital world, storage is everything. Disclaimer: I’m just sharing wisdom, not instructions. No licenses, no guarantees — just years of trading scars and precision chartwork. Be smart, protect your capital, and don’t copy blindly. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
SNX – The OG DeFi Token Awakens?SNX – The OG DeFi Token Awakens? 🧬🚀 Synthetix (SNX) is back on the radar, trading just above its historic base at $0.78–$0.88 — the same accumulation zone that birthed past monster runs. This isn’t just nostalgia. The OG DeFi protocol is launching a new DEX in the coming weeks, built on L2 Ethereum. And yes — SNX was the first perpetuals DEX on-chain before it was even cool. 📊 Current Setup: Strong base at $0.78–$0.88 Resistance targets: $2.04 → $5.08 → $14.06 Macro extension: $22.04 zone if cycle rotates full DeFi 🔁 You’re looking at a classic bottom formation across both short- and long-term timeframes. Accumulation + news = ignition risk. Synthetix is part of DeFi history — and possibly its future if the new DEX delivers. Mindset Check 🧘 DeFi summer may be long gone, but real builders never left. The best setups are always born in silence. Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor, but I am the best prognosis you’ll ever get. Better than AI. Better than the herd. Still, this ain’t advice — it's education. And risk? That’s always yours. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
Gold Futures – Compression Before Explosion?Gold (GC1!) is coiling tightly just above the $3,998 level, teasing a big move as it hugs the 0.618 fib zone at $3,921. It’s the definition of compression — and when gold coils like this, something always gives. 📍 Key levels on the radar: $3,998 – Current pressure zone $3,921 – Fib support + breakout base $3,602 – Worst-case flush if demand fails $4,489 – Fibonacci extension target if this rips We’ve got an ascending pitchfork, clean market structure, and a massive range breakout setup. These kinds of patterns don’t sit idle for long. Gold remains a beast in uncertain macro conditions — don’t underestimate what happens when fear, rates, and inflation mix. Trading Wisdom 📜 The bigger the coil, the nastier the move. Don’t focus on direction — focus on readiness. Gold pays those who stay patient and deadly. Disclaimer: What you read here is not financial advice — it’s high-level market philosophy from the FXPROFESSOR himself. Risk is real, and your capital is your responsibility. Learn, adapt, evolve. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
COMEX:GC1!
by FX_Professor
November 10 - 14 2025 1. Macro I have made several changes to my Macro layout to make it more focused and intuitive for options trading. I still watch commodities and check the gauge from time to time, but I have found they are too volatile, cyclical, and noisy for me to be keeping such close tabs on. Instead, my renewed focus is to assess risk across currency (gold and fiat) and bonds, which in turn will help me measure the attractiveness of stocks in real time. Since Mid-September, the dollar TVC:DXY has been on a steady rise. Meanwhile, the Z-score of $(DXY*TYIE) (Dollar FX strength multiplied by real yield) has been falling over the same period before pivoting at the end of October. This would suggest that real yields were falling at a rate that outpaced the dollar’s relative strengthening. The pivot came at the same time that TVC:GOLD started to pull back from its nearly 30% rally. Keep in mind that real yields rising is bearish for gold. I’m also bringing in $GOLD/GVZ which serves as a good early exhaustion gauge for Gold. Here we can see that traders loaded up on AMEX:GLD puts before the price pulled back, but have since reverted back to the average. We will see if Gold continues its uptrend or if more volatility is to come. Next, I’m looking at the Z-score of the dollar TVC:DXY against the price (not yield) of a 10Y US-bond. The idea here is to simply gauge whether the market has a preference for cash or risk-free bonds. This measures the relative risk of bonds (ie. higher yields expected: market will prefer cash). Here we can see that there seems to be a preference for cash that has close correlation with the TVC:DXY uptrend, suggesting FX is moving the dollar higher more than a change in the bond price. I have decided to chart TVC:US02Y by itself, occasionally switching to other yields or the 10Y real yield FRED:DFII10 ), since it is more sensitive to policy than 10Y and more volatile than 03MY. Here, the nominal yield started to rise at the same time as when TVC:GOLD & CBOE:GVZ peaked and the dollar*real yield gauge pivoted. The forward inflation gauge (bottom right) has stayed mostly down but is showing signs of flattening out, perhaps finding support for a move higher. What does all of this tell me? I think this sends a clear message that the market thinks nominal yields will continue to rise, yet I’m not yet getting the signal that this is due to a change in how the market is pricing inflation. Due to shutdown delays (which will hopefully be ending soon), the latest available real yield print is from Thursday November 6, and with the movement on Friday it will be important to see how the forward inflation gauge changes when it gets updated. If nominal yields continue to rise TVC:US02MY and TVC:GOLD confirms without hedging CBOE:GVZ , this would send a risk-off signal. On the flip-side, the market would need to see continued FX strength for the dollar AND nominal yields flat or falling to confirm a risk-on pivot. Right now this leans risk-off but I will be watching closely. 2. FX Made a couple changes to the FX layout to support the same line of thinking. Might tweak this more depending on how insightful it is. Top pane is now 2Y yields for selected countries. The middle pane is what I would call a “forward-looking interest rate vs historical inflation”. This is similar to the real yield but the real inflation data has much more lag, but I’m trying this out as it may suggest how loose or tight forward policy expectations might be. Lastly, I have the percent comparison of the selected currency baskets as usual. Since the Dollar’s FX strength is playing a key role in the dollar’s attractiveness over bonds, It’s worthy to note that other currency indices currently have an inverse relationship with OPOFINANCE:DXY. The dollar caught a bid while competitors fell in late October but now it looks like the opposite is occurring. TVC:US02Y has risen and is now essentially tied for second-highest with Australia - use below Great Britain. Meanwhile, the market is pricing the US as restrictive but not as tight as France and Italy (dotted and dashed blue lines, respectively). I think this means the Eurozone will see more FX interest compared to the dollar, which could undermine its strength unless nominal yields continue to rise. In my view, this supports a better Risk-On argument since the Euro index TVC:EXY has not started outperforming TVC:DXY yet on the indexed chart, meaning euro restrictiveness is not fully priced in. With the US in the early stages of an easing cycle and Europe still dealing with higher inflation, US conditions are likely to continue easing relative to the EU’s riskier members; France and Italy. This should keep the dollar from finding too much market interest. Conclusion: Dollar FX will continue to be range-bound or lower. Any rise should just be seen as temporary. 3. Risk I’ve changed my approach here to focus more on credit on a shorter-term basis. Here, I have real Option Adjusted Spreads of corporate bonds (top left, blue) like before, but will primarily watch the proxy -1*(HYG+LQD)/2/TLT (public debt vs treasuries), which is more sensitive and can provide early signals and important divergences. In the middle pane, I’m tracking $-1*HYIN (inverse of a private-credit ETF; higher value = higher risk to private credit). On the third pane I am using $ES1!/GOLD as I have always done. This layout shows a worrying picture for the near-term. The real OAS chart (blue) is confirming the uptrend on the proxy above it is signaling stress to public credit and spreads may be on to higher highs. On the next chart, we are seeing that there is also stress to private credit that is staying above the Keltner Channel. I believe this underlying credit risk added stress to stocks over the past two weeks. If it continues there certainly could be more downside ahead. It’s also not looking good when $ES1!/GOLD is moving lower after a bounce that could potentially lead to lower low, however a key point to note is that this recent dip has been caused by stock selling, not gold buying, as I have previously pointed out, which is a very important distinction in my opinion. My takeaway is that the credit situation should be monitored very closely. Despite this, it’s also noteworthy that the market is not rushing into risk-off assets like Gold and Treasuries, and Macro forces may even prevent a surge in both, so there is still a good chance the credit issue is temporary. Neutral/leaning bearish on this one. 4. Sector Performance Same approach here. Only thing I want to point out is that we clearly saw a rotation out of tech AMEX:XLK and into healthcare AMEX:XLV (circled), which was the source of stock market volatility and could have been due to “smart money” positioning prior to the White House pharmaceutical pricing announcement. I doubt this trade will hold, so a rotation back into tech at some point seems likely. 5. Bias I won’t spend too much time on this one today. I already predicted we’d see the price move higher after Friday’s close which is why I bought calls one week out. CVD clearly favored the sellers last week but right now it looks like it might be breaking through. On my volatility indicators on the left, there was strong confirmation that dealers were long puts on the days the market sold off last week but Friday appeared to show a pivot, taking out the puts. Historical Volatility (HV) is falling so there is a possibility this could be a reversion, however I think a 4% pullback and 22 on TVC:VIX with no major news supporting it was excessive. Stocks were overbought so that was more than enough for a healthy pullback to shuffle the deck. Conclusion: Macro indicators are important to watch this week, as I believe they will provide important clues for stock market performance. As I explained above, rising yields/strong dollar will put downward pressure on stocks but the dollar’s relative strength can be assessed through the FX lens, which suggests that even if we see nominal yields rise to start the week, investors will still have an incentive to buy US debt compared to across the pond (UK, France, Italy). I also think the rotation out of Tech and into Healthcare was likely temporary, which let stocks pull back and investors to profit off of the healthcare-related policy news that was in the pipeline. The real bearish catalyst I’m watching is to see if credit continues to show signs of stress. If that is the case, a continued rise in gold (which we are already seeing today) could be a signal of rushing to safety, however I would also expect to see US treasuries declining simultaneously if that were the case. All of this to say, I think it is more likely than not that stocks will recover and continue the bullish trend this week, but it is still important to watch for any signs that trouble still lies ahead. A lot can happen in a week.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ap769
Bullish Gold TurnaroundOver the weekend, Trump’s $2000 tariff dividend announcement and the Senate’s first step toward ending the shutdown gave a strong boost to gold prices. Both developments are helping to ease the dollar liquidity crunch that has pressured gold in recent days. It’s not over yet, but after testing the 4130–4150 resistance zone, gold might see a short-term selloff that could present a new buying opportunity. With quantitative tightening set to end in December, bullish pressure is likely to persist in the medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem