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EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025) EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias. USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar. 👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD. 📊 Seasonality September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month. 👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities. 🧠 Sentiment Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long. Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias. 📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1) Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress). Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster). Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted). Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought. ✅ Operational Summary EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside. Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance. Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
World gold price today September 16, 2025New York manufacturing fell sharply in September, slipping into recession, according to the latest data from the New York Federal Reserve. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -8.7, down from 11.9 in August and well below the forecast of -5.0. This is the first time the index has returned to negative territory since June. New orders and shipments fell sharply, inventories continued to decline slightly, while employment held steady but average hours worked fell. Input prices remained high, selling prices rose moderately and spending plans remained weak. Businesses expect conditions to improve in the coming period, but sentiment remains generally cautious. Immediately after the report was released, gold prices rebounded and then remained flat, trading around $3,642/ounce. Global markets are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which begins on Tuesday morning and ends on Wednesday afternoon, with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the first since November 2024.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate). Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed) So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then): First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top. Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart. As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long. Setups: Long — Dip Buy (primary) • Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next). • Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry. • SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50. • TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2). Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET) • Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures). • Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15. • NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00. • Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30. • Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline). • FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed. • Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week). Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary) • Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722. • Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest. • SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50. • TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808. Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only) • Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged). • Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell. • SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50. • TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Holding above 3,675 favors bullish continuation1. Key Levels Resistance zone: 3,675 – 3,685 (blue box). Price is consolidating right around this area. Support zone: 3,630 – 3,640 (red box below). This is the key downside level if the breakout fails. 2. Current Price Action Price had a strong bullish impulse pushing above 3,675 but is now stalling and retesting this resistance zone. The zig-zag lines you drew highlight two potential paths: 🔺 Red arrow (bullish): Break above 3,685 → continuation to 3,700 – 3,710. 🔻 Blue arrow (bearish): Rejection from this zone → drop back towards 3,640 support. 3. Trading Scenarios Bullish Case If gold holds above 3,675 and breaks 3,685 with momentum, buyers could target 3,700 – 3,710 first. Above that, 3,720+ becomes the next resistance zone. Bearish Case If gold fails to stay above 3,675 and breaks back below → expect a deeper retracement towards 3,640. If 3,640 fails, the next strong support is 3,620 – 3,630. 4. Summary The market is at a decision point. Holding above 3,675 favors bullish continuation, while losing this level favors a pullback correction. Traders should watch for a clean breakout or rejection at this zone before entering.
TVC:GOLD
by AstronautPioneer
$MPC - Bullish Long Entry on Strong Fundamentals & Technical SupEntered a long position in Marathon Petroleum Corp ( NYSE:MPC ) at $149.25 on May 8, 2025. Stop loss set at $114.90. Rationale: Refining margins remain robust, supporting strong cash flow generation. Consistent shareholder returns via aggressive buybacks and dividends. Attractive valuation relative to earnings potential in the energy sector. Key Risks: Oil price volatility and refining crack spread fluctuations. Broader market sentiment toward energy stocks. Stop loss placed below key support to protect capital if the trade thesis weakens.
NYSE:MPCLong
by NYSE_TechFund
near target is 3,700 – 3,720.1. Main Trend The chart is currently in a short-term uptrend, shown by the rising channel (red parallel trendlines). Price has bounced multiple times from the lower trendline → confirming that buyers remain in control. 2. Support & Resistance Zones Nearest Resistance: 3,675 – 3,685 (blue zone). This level has been tested multiple times and price is now trading around it. Key Support: around 3,640 (lower trendline). Further below, the strong support is at 3,520 – 3,540 (red box). 3. Current Signals Price has just broken out above the 3,675 – 3,685 resistance zone, and is now pulling back for a retest. If price holds above 3,675 → the bullish trend will be reinforced. The chart also has an upward arrow drawn → indicating expectation of a move towards 3,700. 4. Scenarios Ahead Bullish Scenario (priority): If price holds above 3,675 – 3,685 and bounces up, the next target is 3,700 – 3,720. A break above 3,720 could extend the rally towards 3,750 – 3,770. Bearish/Correction Scenario: If price fails to hold 3,675 and breaks lower → it may retest the rising trendline around 3,640. If the trendline also breaks, there is risk of a drop towards the strong support at 3,520 – 3,540. 5. Conclusion The overall trend is still bullish. The key level to watch: 3,675 – 3,685 (retest zone). Trading Strategy: Prefer long positions if price holds above 3,675, with stop-loss below the trendline. Target 3,700 – 3,720. Conversely, if 3,675 and the trendline fail, wait for lower supports.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
Mining in August: Efficiency, Valuation Gaps, DiversificationFrom Block Rewards to Capital Strategies The Bitcoin mining industry has entered a transformative stage in 2025, driven by both market dynamics and major corporate developments. In the U.S., American Bitcoin (ABTC)—backed by the Trump family and Hut 8—debuted on Nasdaq through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, closing its first day at a valuation of $7.3 billion. Other listed miners such as IREN and Cipher have also gained momentum as they expand into HPC services. These shifts reflect a broader transformation: mining is evolving beyond block rewards into diversified infrastructure and capital strategies. From a network perspective, fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s 7-day average hashrate surpassed 1 ZH/s (1,000 EH/s) in early September for the first time in history, marking a symbolic transition into the “zetahash era.” Simultaneously, CoinWarz reported that network difficulty hit a record 129.7 T in late August, a 6.4% increase over the prior 90 days. In terms of market concentration, CloverPool data indicates that Foundry USA, AntPool, and ViaBTC collectively control nearly 60% of total network hashrate, while publicly listed mining companies already contribute close to 40% of the network’s computing power. This pattern illustrates a steadily consolidating industry, where scale and efficiency are increasingly rewarded, while smaller operators face heightened challenges in competing on cost and capital access. For miners, the recent increase in network difficulty has not been fully matched by revenue growth. Hashrate Index data shows that hashprice currently stands at $55–60 per PH/s per day, even with Bitcoin trading above $110,000. This reflects the subdued state of the fee market. According to Galaxy Digital, transaction fees contributed less than 0.8% of block rewards in August 2025, one of the lowest levels in recent years. As a result, miner revenue is now primarily determined by block subsidies, highlighting the sector’s growing dependence on efficiency and scale in sustaining operations. Operation indicators and Valuations Cleanspark Deployed hashrate: 50 EH/s Current capacity: 1,030 MW Bitcoin holdings: 12,807 BTC Efficiency: 16.07 J/TH EV per EH/s: ~49.2 Riot Platforms Deployed hashrate: 36.4 EH/s Current capacity: N/A Bitcoin holdings: 19,309 BTC Efficiency: 21.0 J/TH EV per EH/s: ~148.9 BitFuFu Deployed hashrate: 35.6 EH/s Current capacity: 628 MW Bitcoin holdings: 1,899 BTC Efficiency: 17.5 J/TH EV per EH/s: ~16.1 Cango Deployed hashrate: 50 EH/s Current capacity: N/A Bitcoin holdings: 5,193 BTC Efficiency: N/A EV per EH/s: ~5.1 Hut 8 Deployed hashrate: 18.5 EH/s Current capacity: 762 MW Bitcoin holdings: 10,667 BTC Efficiency: N/A EV per EH/s: ~154.1 Efficiency has become a defining metric in today’s mining landscape, and the contrast between company performance and market valuation is particularly clear in BitFuFu’s case. With an operating efficiency of 17.5 J/TH, BitFuFu is positioned close to the top tier of the industry—narrowly behind CleanSpark’s 16.07 J/TH and ahead of Riot’s 21 J/TH. Despite this, its valuation sits at only $16.1M EV per EH/s, a steep discount compared with Riot at $148.9M and Hut 8 at $154.1M. Such a gap indicates that markets are rewarding brand visibility and balance-sheet holdings more heavily than operational cost advantages, leaving room for companies with disciplined efficiency to be re-rated over time. Both Riot and BitFuFu have explicitly highlighted strategies aimed at further boosting efficiency in their core mining operations. These include ongoing maintenance programs to maximize fleet stability, selective upgrades of older machines to next-generation models, and targeted acquisitions of mining sites in regions with structurally lower energy prices. Taken together, these initiatives reinforce the critical role of efficiency as the real moat in a high-difficulty, low-fee environment, while also pointing to the potential for re-rating as markets recognize the long-term value embedded in such operational discipline. Peer Comparison: Hashrate, Efficiency, and the Valuation Divide Overall, the Bitcoin mining landscape in August 2025 is defined by sharp contrasts. At the macro level, hashrate has surpassed 1 ZH/s and difficulty reached record highs, while the fee market has contracted sharply. This directly pressures self-mining operators reliant on block rewards and fees, but only indirectly affects cloud-mining platforms whose revenues are primarily service-fee based. As a result, cloud-mining models, with their relative insulation from fee volatility and more stable cash flows, may demonstrate greater long-term resilience. At the micro level, valuation gaps among listed miners show that the market is placing increasing emphasis on efficiency, capital strategy, and balance-sheet positioning rather than scale alone. This explains why companies with similar hashrates trade at vastly different multiples. Put differently, such dispersion presents both risks—where certain miners may be overvalued—and opportunities—where efficient yet undervalued players may see re-rating as their operational discipline gains recognition. From an investment perspective, miners that combine efficiency leadership with strong capital market narratives and financial discipline appear best positioned. Looking ahead, diversification into artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) offers a compelling new growth avenue. Companies such as Hive and BitFuFu have already begun investing in these areas, both to hedge against mining revenue volatility and to reposition mining infrastructure as multi-purpose computing platforms. This transition not only strengthens long-term resilience but could also serve as a key catalyst for the sector’s next wave of valuation reappraisal. In conclusion, only miners that achieve advantages across efficiency, capital strategy, and diversification are likely to build sustainable long-term competitiveness in the evolving industry landscape.
NASDAQ:FUFU
by Miningresearch
Smart Money Concept (SMC)📊 SMC Analysis – Bullish Projection to 3,700 ✅ Context After reaching the new Higher High (HH) at 3,675, the market is now consolidating in a distribution phase. Price action shows signs of liquidity grabs before the next move. ✅ Key Insights • A ChoCh and BOS appeared, but price is holding above the support zone. • A potential fake out could occur, grabbing liquidity before continuation. • We are watching for a retest + rejection as confirmation of bullish continuation. ✅ Entry Idea The entry is anticipated on the retest after the fake out, once a rejection confirms institutional interest. ✅ Target If the setup plays out, price is likely to push towards the 3,700 level, an area with strong seller interest and liquidity resting above. 🔑 Lesson for Traders Patience is key: 1. Let the fake out clear liquidity. 2. Wait for the retest. 3. Enter only on clear rejection signals. 4. Ride the move to the new HH at 3,700. 👉 This gives you a clean educational breakdown for your followers while showing how to anticipate the next move. GOOD LUCK TRADERS.. ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
POV – USDJPY Setup📌 **POV – USDJPY Setup** On **USDJPY (UJ)**, I’m currently waiting for liquidity to be taken out around the **previous daily and weekly lows** before looking for long entries. The plan is simple: * Let price sweep liquidity beneath these levels. * Wait for a clear **shift in structure (CHOCH/BOS)**. * Enter long from the discounted zones/FVGs after confirmation. This approach ensures I’m not chasing entries, but rather **aligning longs with smart money principles**, catching the move only once the market has cleared weak hands. Patience will be key here – no longs until liquidity is taken. Lord Emerson
by Lordemerson
US30 Liquidity Play📌 **POV – US30 Liquidity Play** Currently looking for a **short-term long position on US30**, with the main objective of grabbing liquidity above last week’s high and the daily previous high. This move aligns with a classic **liquidity sweep** setup – expecting price to run the highs before showing signs of exhaustion. Once liquidity is taken, I’ll shift bias to a **bearish scenario**, looking for a clear **CHOCH/BOS confirmation** and an entry around newly-formed **FVGs** for the larger move to the downside. For now, the bullish move is only a **liquidity play**, not a structural shift. The real interest lies in the bearish continuation after the sweep. --- Lord Emerson
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by Lordemerson
PEPEUSDT -the easiest way to get ur capital Tripled!Let me tell you the fastest way to triple your capital at the beginning of 2026. The CRYPTOCAP:PEPE chart looks extremely tempting right now, and since it’s one of the coins with insane price action, you really don’t want to miss this opportunity. On the 3D timeframe , PEPE has formed a symmetrical triangle three times already—just like the one you see here—and every single time it broke out, it did so with a massive green candle that gave no chance for late entries or deep pullbacks. Another key point: PEPE is currently in a consolidation range very similar to the one it had in 2024 before its explosive rally. But this time, the accumulation has lasted over 550 days, which makes it even stronger. Now, here’s the real kicker—the part I’ve highlighted in green for you. If you look closely, you’ll notice that before every major breakout, the EMA 25 and EMA 50 always squeezed tightly together. That exact setup is happening again right now. PEPE is sitting on strong support, inside a long consolidation range. Don’t miss it. Mark my words: a 3x from here is an easy target by the end of 2025. Best Regards: Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
10
Googl bearish case- I’m feeling lucky Bearish Drivers 1. Overheating valuation – Alphabet hit $3T market cap, up ~70% since April. AI hype + regulatory relief leave it vulnerable if execution slips. 2. Heavy AI/Cloud capex – Spending up to $75B this year with cloud growth lagging, raising margin pressure concerns. 3. Reliability & security risks – June 2025 multi-product outage and rising cloud security threats highlight operational fragility. 4. Regulatory overhang – FTC probing AI chatbots; risk of forced Chrome divestiture (~35% of search rev). Antitrust scrutiny remains despite recent legal win. 5. Fragile sentiment – Rally driven by AI optimism and easing legal fears; any earnings miss or weak Gemini update could trigger sharp reversal. Short GOOGL at $252–260, target $228–235 (with potential extension to $200–210). Bear case rests on over-optimistic sentiment, intense AI/cloud capex, reliability and security risks, and lingering regulatory/legal threats.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by GoldenTraderz_2025
Day 30 — Trading Only S&P Futures | One-Month MarkDay 30 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books! I started the day a little rough, down -100 from an overnight trade, but patience paid off. Watching NQ DD buy signals kept me from forcing shorts early, and SPX gamma levels showed 6620 as the top. Once we hit it, I shorted and played the range for steady gains, finishing with a clean MOB bounce for +196.94. Big milestone here — 30 straight days of trading only the S&P Futures. The consistency is starting to show, and the lessons are stacking up fast. 📰 News Highlights VIX jumped 6% while the market gained 0.5% — an odd divergence worth watching. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow= Above 6645 = Remain Bullish Below 6635 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
DOT USD at the bottomDOT is at the bottom where the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern was formed and it is in the final stages and I expect to start rising from these levels. The first target will be the top of the pattern at a price of $10. Breaking the top will open the way to the distant targets. I note that a huge limit has been set by Polkadot DAO on the network, as the total supply of tokens that will be minted has been changed. A ceiling has been set for it at 2.1 billion DOTs , unlike what was previously there was no ceiling, as the number of tokens was be around 5billion DOT in the year 2050. Long-term targets: 22$ 36$ 60$ 90$ 140$
CRYPTO:DOTUSDLong
by alichfrcion
1
DOT USD bull market DOT is at the bottom where the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern was formed and it is in the final stages and I expect to start rising from these levels. The first target will be the top of the pattern at a price of $10. Breaking the top will open the way to the distant targets. I note that a huge limit has been set by Polkadot governance (DAO) on the network, as the total supply of tokens that will be minted has been changed. A ceiling has been set for it at 2.1 billion DOTs , unlike what was previously there was no ceiling, as the number of tokens was be around 5billion DOT in the year 2050. Long-term targets: 22$ 36$ 60$ 90$ 140$
CRYPTO:DOTUSDLong
by alichfrcion
NEW ATHCleaning solution company gone treasury. 29% revenue YOY for 2M nothing crazy 50M marketcap. Now they are holding/buying $150M of $DOGE. Zone is bouncing off its golden zone while DUS:DOGE is getting a +3% move headed back to the .30 area. Doge ETF launch tm I've seen CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH drop after ETF launches so not fully confident that doge will rise. Also have CPI data tm at 8:30 AM so if markets like it zone could get a big move. Either way pretty risky if it loses $3.50 its headed to $2.
AMEX:ZONELong
by WSMS199