Intel CEO Takes Charge of AI Division After CTO Joins OpenAiIntel Corporation announced that Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan will now directly oversee the company’s artificial intelligence operations following the departure of Chief Technology Officer Sachin Katti, who has joined OpenAI. Katti will reportedly lead OpenAI’s compute infrastructure development — a vital role in powering artificial general intelligence (AGI) research and large-scale applications.
The move underscores the fierce competition for top AI talent as chipmakers and AI labs race to develop next-generation computing systems. Intel said in a statement that AI remains a top strategic priority, and the company is doubling down on executing its product roadmap for emerging workloads under Tan’s leadership. However, the transition adds pressure on Intel, which continues to struggle in its foundry business and faces tough competition from Nvidia and AMD in the AI chip segment.
Tan, who became CEO earlier this year, has been reshaping Intel’s leadership structure to accelerate innovation and streamline operations. Analysts view his direct involvement in AI as a signal that Intel aims to close the gap in high-performance computing and reposition itself as a key player in the AI hardware space.
Technical Outlook:
Intel shares are currently trading around $38 after a sharp rally that broke a long-term downtrend line. The chart indicates the stock is now testing major resistance near the $40 level. A breakout and retest above this zone could pave the way for a move toward $68–$70, aligning with the bullish scenario shown. However, if the price fails to hold above the trendline, a correction back toward $28 or even $20 remains possible.
Investors are watching closely as Intel’s leadership changes and AI strategy could determine whether this breakout sustains or fades.
Fundamental Analysis
ASTERUSDT.P | Clone or Clown? My Short Hedge ASTERUSDT.P | Clone or Clown? My Short Hedge 🎭📉
This is no Hyperliquid. It’s a clone and a clown — and that makes it a perfect hedge candidate for me right now.
Price is stuck in a falling channel with clear breakout and breakdown levels forming:
🔻 Short Breakdown Target: 0.7325
⚠️ Key Pivot: 1.0371
📈 Bullish Breakout: 1.1223
🎯 Upper Fib Zones: 1.4021 → 1.5166 → 1.9590
I'm leaning short here, but this is tactical — not emotional. If it flips above the channel, I’ll adapt. Until then, this is my hedge .
Charts will tell you when and what. Don’t rush the move.
Mindset Check 🧘
Sometimes the trade isn’t about belief — it’s about balance . A solid hedge doesn’t care about the narrative. It just does its job.
Disclaimer: I’m just sharing wisdom, not instructions. No licenses, no guarantees — just years of trading scars and precision chartwork. Be smart, protect your capital, and don’t copy blindly.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
PS:
A whale friend of mine is stacking ASTER slowly. His take? “I only buy things with crooks behind them — they’re the ones who make it.” 😅
He’s bullish. I’m tactical. We made a bet:
If I get to buy at 0.7325 , I win. Let’s see who the market loves more — the whale or the daytrader?
Watch Wednesday Reports for BrentOil market might have entered a key week. While end of US shutdown is in spotlight, 3 key reports will be released tomorrow. International Energy Agency will release November report. In the October report, IAE said that record oil surplus is expected in 2026. Oil demand expected to rise by 750 kb/d for both 2025 and 2026 while supply is expected to rise 3 mb/d for 2025 and 2.4 mb/d for 2026. Meaning oil surplus is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 mb/d in 2026.
On top of IEA report OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report and EIA will publish monthly short-term energy outlook report in Wednesday.
So far, composite forecasts and forward prices suggest that the market expects oil to remain near current levels in 2026. Projections indicate that in the first and second quarters of 2026, Brent will trade close to 60, with WTI slightly below that level before a potential recovery later in the year. However, futures and spreads have not yet been priced in a low Q1-Q2.
Only two factors come to mind that could lift oil prices in 2026. The first is a surge in global energy demand that draws consumption back toward oil as prices stay low. The second is a worsening of the Ukraine–Russia war, which could lead to additional restrictions on Russian oil and more attacks on refineries. Beyond these possibilities, oil still faces a risk of trending lower.
Brent oil has been in a downtrend for some time, and this trend is likely to continue in the medium term. Since the start of the year, the 60 level has acted as the main support. The price has dipped below it three times, but each instance was only a one-day spike.
While 60 continues to hold, Brent is forming lower highs, which increases pressure on the support. In the event of a breakdown, the base case points to a decline toward the 54–55 zone, with a possible extension to 48 in a worst-case scenario.
This week’s reports will be key for shaping 2026 expectations and could trigger preemptive price action in either direction.
USD/CHF - Trendline Rejection (10.11.2025)📊 Setup Overview : FX:USDCHF
USD/CHF continues to respect the descending trendline and Ichimoku cloud resistance, signaling potential downside pressure. Price is currently retesting the resistance zone (0.8070–0.8085) — a strong supply area that has rejected multiple times.As long as this zone holds, we expect a move toward the next support zones.
🧭 Trade Plan
Bias: 🔻 Sell / Short-term Bearish
Entry Zone: 0.8060 – 0.8080 (wait for confirmation candle or rejection)
Target 1 (1st Support): 0.8015
Target 2 (2nd Support): 0.7995
Invalidation: Break and close above 0.8085 (Resistance Zone)
⚡ Fundamental Updates
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly as consumer confidence declined.
2️⃣ Markets now price a 66% chance of a rate cut in December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
3️⃣ U.S. government shutdown concerns keep the dollar under mild pressure as investors watch debt issuance risk.
💬 Summary
A clear trendline rejection combined with fundamental USD weakness supports a short bias.
Wait for confirmation before entering — patience protects capital.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Always do your own research and manage risk wisely.
📢 Support My Work
💚 Like, Comment & Share this idea to motivate more chart updates!
🧠 “Charts Don’t Lie, Traders Don’t Quit.”
#USDCHF #ForexAnalysis #TradingView #PriceAction #Trendline #Ichimoku #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #Fundamentals #SwingTrading #KABHI_TA_TRADING
Bitcoin in the Channel of Truth — Levels Mapped, Eyes on 106.261Yesterday's exit was clean — rejection + Bitcoin dominance on support. Let’s break it down 🔍
📊 Bitcoin Dominance
Currently bouncing off key support at ~59.76 . Unless this level is lost, altcoins likely stay weak.
Dominance rising = no altseason. When it dumped last time, Ethereum exploded. Today? We're neutral to bullish on BTC.
🪜 Bitcoin Chart Setup
Big picture:
In a descending macro channel
Inside it, a smaller ascending channel = current trade zone
📌 Key Levels for Day Trading:
Support: 105,000
Mid-level: 106,261
Resistance: 107,000
Macro Bull Trigger: 109,898
Macro Bear Trigger: 104,405
If we lose 104,405 — short time.
If we reclaim 106,261 — stay long.
🧠 Momentum + divergences + my FxProfessor MA combo are pointing higher. So yeah — I expect 106.2K to get tapped today.
📍 Alerts are ON. Precision mode.
💬 Today’s a double day — 11.11. Is 111,111 next? You tell me.
Just play your levels. I do.
Mindset Check 🧘
If you’re guessing, you’re gambling.
I don’t guess. I read structure, I react, I act.
Want to survive this market? Play like it’s chess, not roulette. Not sure where it's going? Hedge!
Disclaimer
Hey — I’m a day trader. I play the levels. I don’t know what you’re doing i just share what I do!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Is gold about to return to a bullish trend?On Monday, the US dollar index remained below the 100 level as signs that the US government might resume operations boosted market risk sentiment.
Spot gold rebounded sharply, surging over $100 intraday and returning above $4100, reaching a new high in over two weeks.
So far, gold has reached a high near $4150.
Looking at the hourly chart:
The two most crucial support levels for gold are currently around 4120-4115 and the $4000 level.
The 4120-4115 level coincides with the hourly moving average (MA20), and 4115 is also the opening price today. Therefore, if it holds above this level, gold is likely to maintain a consolidation and upward trend today.
Secondly, there's the $4000 level, which is the hourly MA30. It's possible that the price might break through the MA20 and directly reach the MA30.
Therefore, I think it's best to wait until at least 4120-4115 before considering long positions.
If the price breaks through the morning high of 4150, it may continue to reach the high near 4180.
Alphabet’s to Invest $6 Billion in Germany as Stock Eyes $300Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) surged to new highs this week as reports surfaced that Google plans to invest approximately €5 billion ($5.8 billion) in Germany to expand its data center and infrastructure footprint. According to sources cited by Reuters, the plan includes the construction of a new data center in Dietzenbach, near Frankfurt, and the expansion of an existing facility in Hanau. Both projects reinforce Google’s growing commitment to Europe’s largest economy and its long-term push toward artificial intelligence and climate-neutral innovation.
The investment marks one of Google’s most significant in Europe, aligning with its broader strategy to enhance data processing power and sustainability. A press conference is scheduled for Tuesday, where German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is expected to provide additional details. Analysts view this expansion as a strong signal of confidence in Europe’s digital economy and AI-driven transformation.
On the technical front, Google’s stock has been on a powerful uptrend, recently reaching around $290 after breaking through long-term resistance. The bullish momentum shows little sign of slowing, with traders eyeing the key psychological level of $300 as the next major target.
Volume and trend structure remain supportive, with an ascending trendline acting as a potential area of support in case of a retracement. A bounce from that region could further fuel continuation toward fresh record highs.
With strong fundamentals backed by a major European investment and a bullish technical setup, Google appears poised to extend its rally. Investors will be watching whether this momentum can push GOOGL beyond $300, a move that could signal the next chapter of growth for one of the world’s leading tech giants.
Watch out—the current rebound could be a bull trap.Watch out—the current rebound could be a bull trap.
Technical analysis
1. US500 rebounded from the EMA50, with the price forming higher swings, and the multi-period EMAs signal an uptrend.
2. However, price has formed Bearish Divergence with RSI twice already (rarely does it occur more than three times), so this rebound may not be sustainable.
3. In terms of Elliott Wave, this rally might be the final sub-wave before a major correction—potentially an Ending Diagonal, which tends to be a ZigZag structure and often finishes with a throw-over before reversing.
4. If the index holds above 6770 and can make a new high, the upside may be limited, with resistance at the ascending trendline around 7000—near the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement—before a significant pullback begins.
5. Alternatively, if US500 fails to make a new high, it may correct toward 6510 as the first support.
Fundamental Analysis
6. S&P 500 valuations look extended, trading around 28–30x P/E versus a 17–25x long-run average range, while P/S near ~3.3–3.4x sits close to record highs—both materially above historical norms.
7. Inflation remains above target as core CPI is ~3% and sticky, leading to expectations that the Fed may not cut interest rates that much, which might not support risk assets as initially anticipated.
8. Berkshire Hathaway's record cash holdings reflect Warren Buffett's increased caution. He views the current market as expensive or uncertain, thus pausing major investments. This stance aligns with the Buffett Indicator surging to 217%-223%, a level he previously warned was "playing with fire," implying the market is significantly overvalued relative to the economy.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
DUOLINGO AI MAXThe recent sentiment for Duolingo has been shaky. Leveraging AI to maximize content output has not exactly translated well for Duolingo. AI content is controversial, and tests lost some accuracy. They also wish extend their reach by offering different subjects now that they believe the content is ready to produce. Is it really necessary or could this be similar to what Meta tried to do when they pushed their Metaverse ambitions? Will mistakes need to be made first before finding something that makes sense? Despite the controversy and upset loyal users, growth companies will behave like visionaries until they are slapped back into reality.
According to documents from 2023 to 2025, Duolingo financials show consistent high growth numbers, stable but slightly compressing margins, and rapidly improving profitability.
On revenues, the company reports remarkable momentum driven primarily by subscription growth. ~+40% YoY, $754.7 this year so far.
User Metrics:
MAU = 135.3M, +20% YoY
DAU = 50.5M, +36% YoY
Paid Users = 11.5M, +34% YoY
Margins remain exceptionally high for a software subscription business, showing strong operating leverage, with mild compression due to AI-Driven product investment.
Gross Margins:
2025 YTD: 72%
2024: 73%
2023: 73%
Duolingo has entered a highly profitable scaling phase. The business is transitioning from growth-mode to cash-generative compounding mode. R&D and G&A is growing slower than revenue.
Given rising net income and expanding equity base, ROE is improving materially as operating leverage continues. ROC is surging upwards as the company shifts from R&D heavy to monetization heavy. In other words, low capital requirements and rapidly expanding operating income.
An intrinsic value of $260 - $345 aligns with its hard to replicate network effect, high FCF conversion, and growing margins.
Thinkific Labs (TSX: THNC) - Swing Trade💰 THNC — Swing Trade Breakdown (TSX)
🏢 Company Snapshot
Thinkific Labs (TSX: THNC) is a Vancouver-based SaaS company that enables creators and enterprises to build, market, and sell online courses. It’s been drawing attention recently after stabilizing near multi-month lows, with earnings on deck and improving cash flow signaling a possible turnaround setup.
📊 Fundamentals
THNC trades at roughly 180× earnings (TTM) — stretched versus typical software peers around 20–40×, though its profitability base is small.
P/B is ~2.4×, which is reasonable given its strong cash position (~C$71M) and minimal debt (D/E ≈ 0.04).
ROE sits around 1.6%, showing that profitability is still in the early stages of improvement.
It doesn’t pay a dividend, staying fully growth-focused.
Free cash flow sits near C$12M, giving it enough flexibility to reinvest while maintaining a solid liquidity cushion.
Summary: Fundamentally sound balance sheet and cash reserves, but expensive valuation and low profitability — typical for an early-stage SaaS recovery story.
📈 Trends & Catalysts
Revenue growth is soft but positive (+1.6% QoQ).
EPS has turned slightly positive — small profits are emerging, marking a potential inflection point.
Cash flow and liquidity continue improving, with consistent positive free cash flow.
Upcoming Q3 2025 earnings (Nov 12) could serve as a catalyst, especially if margins expand.
Risks include rich valuation, competitive pressure in the e-learning space, and lingering weakness in software sentiment.
🪙 Industry Overview
The software and e-learning sector has been mixed. Over the past month, THNC is down roughly 11%, lagging peers. Over 12 months, it’s down about 27%, underperforming the sector amid a shift toward profitability and AI-driven platforms. Short-term sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, but any strong beat in earnings could quickly flip that tone.
📐 Technicals
THNC closed around C$2.11, sitting slightly above its 50-day SMA (~C$2.05) — an area of near-term support.
The 200-day SMA (~C$2.41) looms overhead as a key resistance marker.
Momentum has cooled, but the stock is consolidating tightly between C$2.00 and C$2.15, showing signs of base-building.
Support sits at C$2.00–2.10, resistance around C$2.40–2.70.
Volume remains light (~50–80k shares/day), so watch for a breakout day with strong volume to confirm demand.
Pattern: Tight consolidation near support after a steep decline — potential for a reversal or relief rally if volume spikes.
RSI(2): Neutral — no oversold or overbought signal currently.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: C$2.05–2.15 — ideal for accumulation near support or a 50-SMA retest.
Stop Loss: C$1.95 — below key support; invalidates base.
Target: C$2.70 — aligns with resistance and 200-SMA retest.
Risk/Reward: Approx. 2.7× (solid swing setup).
Alternate Setup: Breakout above C$2.50 on strong volume could trigger a momentum continuation toward the high C$2s.
🧠 My Take
THNC offers a low-risk swing setup with improving fundamentals and technical stabilization. It’s cash-rich, debt-light, and forming a potential base around C$2.00. While long-term momentum remains bearish (still below 200-SMA), short-term traders can target a bounce back to C$2.70 if earnings or sentiment improve.
My bias: Cautiously bullish — watching for entry near C$2.05 with tight risk below support and a 2:1+ R/R toward the C$2.70 zone.
Pi Coin Investors’ Remain Weak as Price Eyes 15% Drop RecoveryPi Coin’s price stands at $0.235 at the time of writing, after successfully breaching the $0.229 resistance level within the last 24 hours. The altcoin now appears to be regaining some lost ground from its late October decline.
For Pi Coin to fully recover from its 15% drop, the price must break through the $0.246 resistance and rally toward $0.260. Achieving this would reinforce the bullish outlook and restore market confidence among cautious investors.
However, if the bullish momentum weakens, Pi Coin could slip below $0.229 again and test the $0.217 support level. A breakdown beneath this support would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose the cryptocurrency to further downside risks.
Can Ethereum Holders Help Price Break Its Month-Long Downtrend?Ethereum’s price stands at $3,604 at the time of writing, hovering just below the critical $3,607 resistance mark. The altcoin king has been struggling against its descending trendline for over a month, making this level a key breakout point.
If Ethereum can flip $3,607 into support, the next target would be $3,802, followed by a potential move toward $3,950. Sustained support from LTHs and rising sentiment could fuel this upward trajectory, allowing ETH to escape its bearish grip.
However, if investors begin taking profits, Ethereum could slip below the $3,489 support level. A further decline toward $3,287 would invalidate the bullish thesis. This would signaling renewed selling pressure and extending the ongoing downtrend.
NASDAQ-100 4H: demand is not gone, only waiting for the priceAfter the recent upward impulse, the price retraced into the key demand zone at 25 350–25 208, an area that has repeatedly triggered buying reactions in the past. T
he latest correction pushed the price into the 0.79–0.705 Fibonacci range, which frequently acts as a retest zone before continuation.
Below that lies an even stronger demand zone at 24 710–24 381, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and previous volume accumulation.
The trading logic here is simple: don’t chase the move, let the price come to demand and wait for confirmation.
As long as the market structure holds, the primary scenario remains bullish from demand zones with a target toward 26 360 and potentially higher.
Fundamentally, NASDAQ remains supported by expectations of softer Fed policy, strong tech capital inflows, and continued investment in AI, cloud, and data-center infrastructure. Smart money accumulates on corrections, not on peaks.
When price falls into demand, it’s not fear — it’s opportunity.
Market Gaps: What They Say, What They Hide & When to Trade ThemIt’s 9:30 a.m. You sip your coffee, glance at the chart, and there it is. Your stock has leapt several dollars higher (or lower), skipping right over the previous day’s closing price.
Welcome to the world of market gaps — those mysterious spaces between yesterday’s close and today’s open that make traders question both their strategy and their life choices.
A market gap isn’t a missing candle but the story of what happened while you were sleeping (or ignoring the news). It’s the sum of after-hours trades, global market sentiment, overnight earnings, and sometimes a rogue tweet.
The question is: should you trade them — or stay far, far away?
🌍 Why Gaps Happen
Gaps exist because markets never really sleep. When one exchange closes, another is already open somewhere else, digesting the same news through a different timezone. Add in pre-market trading, futures markets, and weekend surprises, and you get an ecosystem where prices constantly readjust (even when you can’t click “Buy”).
Most gaps fall into one of three categories:
Breakaway gaps – when new information changes everything (earnings beats, mergers, surprise rate cuts).
Runaway gaps – the “momentum monsters” that happen mid-trend when traders can’t get enough.
Exhaustion gaps – the final gasp before a reversal, when optimism or panic reaches peak saturation.
Understanding which one you’re looking at is half the battle. The other half? Not taking the bait too early.
💥 What Gaps Reveal (and Conceal)
We’re in the earnings season now so it’s pretty normal to spot a gap on the charts.
A gap higher often signals optimism: strong earnings, bullish guidance, or a macro tailwind. But it can also mean traders are front-running euphoria — piling in before the market can catch its breath.
Similarly, a gap lower screams heavy selling, but sometimes it’s just overreaction dressed as disaster. Take for example the recent showing from CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV . The neocloud beat on both top- and bottom-line expectations. And yet, the stock fell 8% in after-hours .
Typically, if prices hold above or below the gap for several hours or sessions, that’s confirmation that traders are validating the move. But if it’s filled quickly (the price retraces back to the previous close), it means the reaction faded faster than your New Year’s resolution.
🕳️ The Weekend Trap
Weekend gaps deserve their own warning label. Markets close Friday afternoon, and by Monday, the world’s had 48 hours to produce headlines, scandals, or White House drama.
If you hold high-risk positions over the weekend, you’re effectively saying, “I’m okay with the market repricing everything I own before I wake up Monday.” Sometimes that works — you wake up richer. Sometimes it doesn’t — and your stop-loss never had a chance.
Fast fact : Stop losses don’t work during a gap because the price jumps over your stop level — there’s no trading in between, so your order can only trigger at the next available price, often far worse than expected.
🧭 How (and When) to Trade Gaps
So how do pros handle them? Like most things in trading — with patience, context, and a healthy respect for traps.
Wait for confirmation . Don’t chase the open. See if volume supports the gap or if it’s just knee-jerk volatility.
Look left . Check past support/resistance levels — gaps tend to gravitate toward old battle zones.
Mind the news . If the gap is driven by an actual event (earnings, guidance, policy change), the odds of it holding improve. Make sure to stay on top of market-moving news .
Avoid FOMO . The first 15 minutes of trading are often chaos. Let the emotional traders clear out before you step in.
Remember the fill rule . When in doubt, assume gravity wins eventually — most gaps don’t stay open forever.
🔮 What Gaps Really Mean
Gaps are the market’s way of saying, “Something happened — pay attention.” They’re emotional, fast-moving, and occasionally misleading. But they also reveal where sentiment can truly shift — the moments when traders collectively decide that yesterday’s price was wrong.
Handled well, gaps can offer some of the cleanest trades on the chart. Handled poorly, they’re an expensive lesson in humility.
So the next time you wake up to a market that’s sprinted ahead, take a breath. The space between two candles isn’t a void. It’s a story. Read it before you react.
Off to you : How do you handle gaps? Share your approach to these market events in the comments!
Can Regulatory Barriers Create Defense Monopolies?The Geopolitical Catalyst Behind Draganfly's Transformation
Draganfly Inc. (DPRO) is executing a strategic pivot from commercial drone innovation to a defense infrastructure supplier, a transformation driven by geopolitical necessity rather than market competition. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has created a regulatory moat that mandates the exclusion of foreign-made technology from U.S. critical supply chains, immediately disqualifying dominant players like China's DJI. As one of the few NDAA-compliant North American manufacturers, Draganfly gains exclusive access to billions in government contracts. The company's Commander 3XL platform, featuring a 22-lb payload capacity, patented modular design, and specialized software for GPS-denied environments, is already deployed across Department of Defense branches, validating its technical credibility in high-stakes military applications.
Strategic Positioning and Defense Ecosystem Integration
The company has de-risked its defense market entry through strategic partnerships with Global Ordnance, a Defense Logistics Agency prime contractor that provides crucial logistical expertise and regulatory compliance capabilities. The appointment of former Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller to the board further strengthens institutional credibility. Draganfly is rapidly scaling capacity through a new Tampa facility strategically located near major military clients, while maintaining an asset-light model with just 73 employees by leveraging AS9100-certified contract manufacturers. This approach minimizes capital expenditure risk while ensuring responsiveness to large government tenders. The company's intellectual property portfolio, 23 issued patents with a 100% USPTO grant rate, protects foundational innovations in VTOL flight control, modular airframe design, AI-powered tracking systems, and morphing robotics technology.
The Valuation Paradox and Growth Trajectory
Despite Q1 2025 comprehensive losses of $3.43 million on revenue of just $1.55 million, the market assigns Draganfly a premium 16.6x Price-to-Book valuation. This apparent disconnect reflects investor recognition that current losses represent necessary upfront investments in defense readiness facility expansion, manufacturing certification, and partnership development. Analysts forecast explosive growth exceeding 155% in 2026, driven by military contract execution. The military drone market is projected to more than double from $13.42 billion (2023) to $30.5 billion by 2035, with defense ministries worldwide accelerating investments in both offensive and defensive drone technologies. Draganfly's competitive advantage lies not in superior endurance or range AeroVironment's Puma 3 AE offers 2.5 hours flight time versus the Commander 3XL's 55 minutes but in heavy-lift payload capacity essential for deploying specialized equipment like Long Range LiDAR sensors and the M.A.G.I.C. demining system.
The Critical Question of Execution Risk
Draganfly's investment thesis centers on strategic governmental alignment outweighing current operational deficits. The company recently secured a U.S. Army contract for Flex FPV drone systems, including embedded manufacturing capabilities at overseas U.S. Forces facilities, a validation of both technical capability and supply chain flexibility. Integration projects like the M.A.G.I.C. minefield clearance system demonstrate mission-critical utility beyond conventional reconnaissance. However, the path to profitability depends entirely on execution: successfully scaling production capacity, navigating lengthy government procurement cycles, and converting the defense pipeline into realized revenue. The company is positioned to become a major player, specifically in the secure, NDAA-compliant, heavy-lift multirotor segment, not to dominate generalized fixed-wing ISR or mass-market commercial applications. The fundamental question remains whether Draganfly can execute its defense strategy fast enough to justify its premium valuation before competitors develop comparable NDAA-compliant capabilities.
Gold Breaks Out: Bullish Momentum Moves GOLD Above 4025 Gold Breaks Out: Bullish Momentum Moves GOLD Above 4025
Gold is moving exactly in line with our previous projections.
After nearly three weeks of sideways movement, the metal finally broke out with strong bullish momentum, resuming its dominant uptrend. The breakout above the 4025 structure zone confirmed renewed buying pressure, with the price surging sharply during the early hours of the market open.
Interestingly, this rally comes without any major market catalysts. While the U.S. Senate’s progress toward ending the 40-day government shutdown is technically positive for the dollar, gold once again proves that it doesn’t always follow the news narrative.
At this stage, a short-term pullback to retest 4025 would be healthy before the next leg higher. Given the rapid rise from 4000 to 4075, some consolidation is likely before continuation.
Key Targets:
🎯 4135
🎯 4230
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
🎯 Previous analysis:
Go long on gold in line with market trendsThis week saw significant changes in the gold market. After opening, gold prices broke out of their previous prolonged consolidation pattern, strongly breaking through a key resistance area and re-entering a one-sided upward trend. The previous resistance in the 4030-4050 range was completely broken, and the bulls quickly took control, driving prices to continue to climb. As emphasized in the previous analysis, once the gold price breaks through the key technical range of 4030-4050, it will signify the start of a new upward trend. Looking at the actual price action, since the breakout, gold has experienced almost no significant pullback, with strong buying support and a clear shift in market sentiment towards optimism. To date, the price has risen by several hundred dollars, demonstrating strong upward momentum.
Reviewing yesterday's viewpoint, we clearly pointed out that when prices successfully break through key resistance levels, trading strategies should be adjusted accordingly, shifting from observation or short-term trading to trend-following and actively establishing long positions. Currently, gold prices are once again approaching the important resistance area of 4150-4160, which had previously encountered resistance multiple times. This area has formed several interim highs in the past few trading cycles, and is a double pressure zone in terms of market psychology and technical structure. If this price breaks through and holds above this level with significant volume, the upside potential is likely to expand further, making a return to the 4200 level highly probable, and it may even continue to move towards higher targets.
In terms of specific trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips approach, seizing entry opportunities during pullbacks. An ideal entry range is 4105 to 4125. Within this range, long positions can be established in batches to control risk while ensuring no loss of the main upward trend. Close monitoring of market movements is crucial, especially the reaction in the 4150-4160 range—if the price recovers quickly after a brief period of resistance with increased volume, it can be considered a breakout signal; conversely, caution is warranted regarding short-term profit-taking volatility.
Overall, this round of gold price increases is not only due to the confirmed technical breakout but also influenced by recent changes in the global macroeconomic environment, including rising inflation expectations, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and increased gold reserves held by some central banks. Until there are signs of a trend reversal, maintaining a bullish mindset and closely following the market rhythm will be the safest approach at present.
The above represents only my personal thoughts. If you find it helpful, please like and follow to show your support! Please note that any strategy is time-sensitive and may change as market conditions evolve. I will notify you in the channel based on the actual market situation!
Report 11/11/25Report summery
Markets just got a two-handed shove: politically, the election results plus a Supreme Court that sounded wary about the legal basis for most of the administration’s tariffs; corporately, Tesla shareholders rewarding the “robotaxi + Optimus” optionality with a record package that anchors the market’s physical-AI story. In the very near term, that mix argues for lower equity risk appetite at the index level when policy uncertainty flares, stickier rate-cut expectations if the Court crimps tariff revenue, a range-bound to firmer USD on growth and rate differentials, and a supported crude tape as OPEC+ keeps output expansion on pause. Barron’s summed the weekly tape: Dow −1.2%, S&P −1.6%, Nasdaq −3.0% into the election/Court week, with oil buoyed as OPEC+ paused planned increases and the shutdown dragged on; AI positioning was a headwind for some names.
On Nov. 11, the Dollar Index printed ~96.9 and U.S. equities bounced from the week’s slump, underscoring that this is a path dependency story, each headline toggles the balance between “tariff revenue supports fiscal and dovish Fed” versus “legal curbs force policy workarounds and wider deficits.” Yields have been skittish for precisely this reason.
What just changed and why it’s material
Voters swung blue in key off-year races (NYC, NJ, VA, CA), a symbolic check on the White House, while conservative justices questioned whether tariffs belong with Congress rather than the presidency under the emergency-powers rubric. That combination narrows the unilateral policy lane that markets had grown used to, even if near-term asset prices still lean on AI enthusiasm and hopes of Fed cuts.
At the same time, the shutdown’s persistence and data blackouts (CPI/PPI delayed) reduce near-term macro visibility; the FAA even trimmed air traffic by ~10% due to staffing constraints. This keeps volatility in play around each incremental political headline.
Finally, shareholders approved a $1T incentive for Musk, a shot of confidence in Tesla’s “physical AI” thesis even as today’s revenue mix remains car-heavy, locking in a market narrative where robotaxis and humanoid robots carry an outsized share of implied valuation.
Policy mechanics and the market’s decision tree
Tariffs & the Court. If the Court ultimately limits the current legal basis, the administration can try to pivot to other authorities to keep levies flowing, but there will likely be a gap risk: refunds on existing levies or slower collections would widen near-term funding needs, affect Treasury supply expectations, and complicate the deficit path that officials have been using to justify rate-cut rhetoric. Even some market participants who think the strategy will be re-patched concede it would put the White House on the back foot and chill counterparties’ willingness to concede in trade talks.
Shutdown & fiscal optics. The Senate moved a package to end the shutdown, but intraparty backlash shows how fragile the coalition is; until resolution, the absence of data and incremental operational frictions (SNAP/payment delays risk, FAA constraints) raise the odds of episodic growth scares without giving the Fed clean data.
Oil policy backdrop. OPEC+ pausing planned output increases props up crude into year-end, interacting with any tariff- or shutdown-driven supply chain noise. That’s important for breakevens and for the “Fed-cuts-soon” narrative.
Asset-by-asset implications
XAUUSD (gold). In the near term, gold remains a buy-the-dips hedge on policy volatility: Court-driven tariff uncertainty and shutdown-driven data gaps nudge rate-cut odds around the edges and keep real-yield volatility elevated, a classic recipe for tactical gold bids on risk-off days. If the Court curtails tariff revenue and the market leans to earlier cuts, that supports gold through lower real rates; if the administration swiftly re-routes tariffs and the dollar firms, gold consolidates in a broad range. The recent bond-market “yips” around tariff prospects are the tell.
S&P 500 / Dow Jones. Index-level path is choppy: earnings leadership is narrowing again and AI-capex “asset-heavy” pivots create P&L drag in some megacaps, while the shutdown and tariff newsflow toggle multiples. Tesla’s vote is bullish for the AI/automation complex beta but doesn’t change aggregates if rates wobble. Near term, I favor quality large-cap growth with cash-flow resilience plus defensives until shutdown clarity and the Court’s posture firm up. Barron’s captured last week’s risk-off and the OPEC+ oil tailwind; Monday’s equity bounce illustrates the headline-sensitivity regime we’re in.
USDJPY & DXY. The dollar stays two-way but supported on growth/rate differentials while U.S. policy is seen as net-stimulative and the Fed isn’t firmly committed to a December cut. If tariffs are curtailed and deficit optics worsen, the market could fade the USD on lower real yields, but the move likely waits for clean data once the shutdown ends. The Dollar Index hovering near the high-90s underscores that this isn’t a collapse scenario; it’s a chop.
Crude Oil. With OPEC+ pausing increases, balances tighten modestly into year-end. China’s reserve behavior and sanction dynamics provide an underlying floor. In a risk-off tape on U.S. politics, crude may dip on growth fears, but policy-put supply argues for buying weakness unless global demand data sharply deteriorate.
Strategic forecasts
Base case (55%). Shutdown is resolved with a thin deal; the Court issues an opinion that narrows but does not nuke tariff usage, prompting legal workarounds that preserve most revenue with a lag. Equities grind with factor rotations; the dollar ranges; crude stays supported; gold holds a high-beta hedge role. Fed communication turns a bit more data-dependent into year-end given the data blackout.
Bullish risk (25%). Quick shutdown end plus an opinion that validates sufficient tariff authority to keep revenue intact; Treasury supply relief + OPEC+ discipline + ongoing AI enthusiasm push the Dow back toward highs and compress IG/HY spreads; DXY firms and gold ranges.
Bearish risk (20%). Prolonged shutdown + opinion that forces refunds and delays replacements; Treasury supply fears lift term premia; equities de-rate; DXY softens with yields, gold rallies, crude chops but holds better than cyclicals thanks to OPEC+. The recent recounting of bond market swings on tariff odds shows you the path dependency.
Fiscal and political implications investors can’t ignore
Three items drive the medium-term P/L: (1) tariff-linked revenue math and Treasury issuance; (2) the durability of OPEC+ discipline against a soft global cycle; (3) the political learning curve, Democrats adopting more muscular tactics, Republicans facing internal constraints, which together implies higher policy volatility even if the average path for growth is fine. Barron’s flagged both the Court’s fiscal wild card and the way Tuesday’s results may restrain unilateralism; that mix lifts the premium investors demand for U.S. policy stability, even if risk assets still love AI.
Risks and opportunities
The principal left-tail is a messy ruling that triggers refunds and months of tariff uncertainty just as shutdown distortions bite, an ugly cocktail for rates and cyclicals. The principal right-tail is a clean shutdown resolution + Court clarity that stabilizes fiscal math, letting the market refocus on productivity/AI and re-rate quality growth. Within that, Tesla’s package cements capital availability for physical-AI narratives, spilling over to industrial robotics, auto-ADAS, edge compute and power gear, even as the index tape stays headline-driven.
Positioning ideas
For XAUUSD, I like staggered entries on pullbacks during USD firmness or yield pops, with exits into Court/shutdown risk-off spikes. For S&P 500/Dow, stay barbell: cash-rich compounders and resilient defensives against a small sleeve of physical-AI and industrial automation beta that benefits from the Tesla imprimatur. For USDJPY/DXY, keep trades short-leash, fading extremes rather than chasing, until we have a shutdown end date and tariff jurisprudence in hand. For crude, own dips while OPEC+ maintains discipline; rotate to producers with strong balance sheets and low breakevens rather than pure beta.
Executive context and current market state
Into Tuesday, Nov. 11 (Warsaw), U.S. equities are trading near record territory after a constructive start to the week: the S&P 500 closed at 6,832.43 (+1.54% on Monday), the Dow at 47,368.63 (+0.81%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 23,527.17 (+2.27%). The Dollar Index sits at 96.87 (down ~5.7% YTD), spot gold rallied to about $4,112/oz, and front-month crude is hovering near $60/bbl. The broad Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index yield is ~3.92%, with the long Treasury index near 4.69%. This is the asset-mix backdrop for the week’s catalysts.
What the “$1T robo ransom” vote really does (Tesla)
The central equity narrative is shifting from EV unit economics to “physical-AI” optionality. The shareholder vote to award Elon Musk an unprecedented performance package is, functionally, a vote to concentrate control around a Robotaxi/Optimus roadmap that currently contributes almost nothing to revenue but most of the equity value embedded in the stock, per the Barron’s analysis you shared. The bull frame is speed: Tesla’s ability to iterate hardware, software, and data centers quickly, plus its experience “touching the physical world”, positions it to attack logistics and labor-substitution profit pools. The bear/neutral frame is time-to-cash: Robotaxi economics require regulatory throughput, urban deployment, and sustained FSD reliability; humanoids require customer acceptance, cost curves, and safety frameworks. On the numbers cited: BofA’s value apportionment implies that the “auto today” piece is a minority of the price, while Robotaxis and Optimus together dominate. If the plan passes, as betting markets and high-profile holders suggest in the column—Tesla leans even harder into the AI platform identity. If it fails, governance overhang grows, and the equity would likely re-rate toward cash-producing businesses (auto + energy storage + FSD subscriptions), a meaningfully lower outcome than “open-ended” robo upside.
For portfolio construction, that bifurcation matters because a “pass” increases the path-dependence of Tesla within mega-cap indices: more sensitivity to AI-infrastructure cycles, to city-level regulation, and to headline risk around automation accidents. Near term, the mechanical index impact is supportive while the broader EV tape remains mixed; medium term, you should assume higher left-tail volatility around regulatory events and demo failures (a la past autonomy setbacks), paired with right-tail upside on any credible Robotaxi monetization pilot.
Big Tech’s AI capex super-cycle and cash-flow math
Across Big Tech, a maturing AI capex super-cycle is compressing near-term margins at firms that lack offsetting external cloud revenue, while advantaging platforms that can rent out capacity. The piece you provided highlights Meta’s capex and depreciation bulge and the risk that “show-me” cash-flows lag the spend. Alphabet’s higher capex guide is backstopped by stronger cash generation and Cloud profitability; Microsoft and AWS remain cushioned by cloud operating leverage even as depreciation ramps. For alpha, the implication is straightforward: reward owners of AI-capex that monetize externally, and be choosier where AI is largely an internal cost center. At the second-derivative level, this also pulls forward demand for power, grid upgrades, copper and electrical equipment, and specialized construction, supporting industrials with data-center exposure, while creating pressure on utilities and regional power markets in the form of capacity and pricing debates.
Tariffs: macro effect smaller than feared, but the legal risk rises
The tariff shock of April didn’t deliver “doomsday.” The data in your packet point to an effective average rate materially below headline levies (via exemptions, supply-chain rerouting, bonded-warehouse usage, and inventory timing), with companies eating a notable share of costs as margins remain structurally fatter than pre-pandemic. That’s why realized inflation impulse looks muted so far, even as some sectors creep prices higher over time. The legal front is now a separate, market-moving variable: the Supreme Court signaled skepticism on key tariff authorities; a forced refund of previously collected levies is estimated at roughly $195 billion, which would weigh on the dollar if enacted. In markets last week, the ICE DXY slipped, and the Dollar Index has been trending lower YTD, consistent with anticipation of Fed easing and, at the margin, legal risk to tariff revenue.
U.S.–China: a fragile detente and what it removes and doesn’t
The Trump and Xi summit in South Korea took some tail-risk off: a one-year delay on China’s new rare-earths curbs, U.S. suspension of the “affiliates rule” expansion, partial tariff relief, and resumed commodity purchases provide breathing room. This is commercial de-escalation, not strategic rapprochement, and core issues (advanced chips, dual-use tech, export controls) are unresolved. For positioning, the immediate effect is lower equity risk premia across Asia and semis with China exposure, plus a softer safe-haven bid into the dollar; medium term, watch whether Nvidia’s engagement yields any sanctioned-product pathway and whether enforcement on rerouting via third countries tightens. Path dependency remains high: a single export-control or maritime incident can unwind the calm.
Labor market erosion vs. foundation: why the Fed still leans to cuts
The labor theme in your packet, stable initial claims around ~220k amid headline layoffs, supports the “erosion, not cliff” view. Small-business hiring intent is trying to turn; hospitality and transport showed monthly payroll gains; education/healthcare still add jobs. It’s a tepid recovery pulse, but it keeps the U.S. growth mix alive alongside easing goods inflation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook framed the trade-off cleanly: policy remains “modestly restrictive,” with downside jobs risk outweighing the risk of reinflation at the margin, and every meeting staying live. That stance is consistent with a 2026-leaning cuts path and a softer dollar baseline absent fresh supply shocks. Gold’s resilience with real yields off the highs is consistent with that combination and with continued geopolitical hedging.
Fiscal frictions: SNAP partial payments and shutdown scarring
SNAP’s partial-benefit plan during the shutdown introduces near-term drag for the lowest-income cohorts with the highest marginal propensity to consume, alongside state-level administrative delays. The macro effect is small at the national level but not trivial for retail comps sensitive to the EBT calendar. If prolonged, it slightly dents Q4/Q1 discretionary and reinforces the case for easier Fed policy relative to a world where fiscal flows were unimpeded.
Energy: China’s strategic stockpiling cushions crude’s downside
China has been importing >11 mb/d this year, stashing an estimated 1.0–1.2 mb/d into reserves, while Brent and WTI trade in the low-$60s. Stockpiling, capacity additions, and yuan-settled Russian flows put a floor under prices; conversely, any pause in those reserve builds exposes crude to the low-$50s scenario given the still-loose global balance. The U.S., by contrast, has been slow to rebuild the SPR. For portfolio risk, that mix argues for maintaining convexity via call spreads rather than outright long barrels, given macro growth uncertainty. The current tape, crude near $60, gold >$4k, dollar softer, is exactly the profile that tends to favor duration and quality equities over high-beta cyclicals unless or until an upside demand surprise materializes.
Banks: BofA’s bid to close the ROTCE gap
Bank of America’s investor day intends to shift the narrative from “responsible growth” to “more growth,” with a targeted ROTCE lift toward 16–18% from ~14% YTD, and capital returns combining ~2% yield with robust buybacks for a ~7% total shareholder yield. The drag from the low-coupon MBS book should abate as reinvestment runs at higher yields into 2026, while credit costs remain benign relative to history. Versus JPMorgan’s still-superior returns, BofA’s upside rests on delivering loan growth (notably cards, where it’s been conservative), re-energizing Merrill’s margins, and proving out NII expansion without undue duration risk. At ~12.5x forward EPS and a discount to top peers, there is room for multiple catch-up if execution lands. The near-term risk is “sell the news” if targets are seen as back-loaded.
Strategy, risks, and where to lean on
Strategically, lean into beneficiaries of externally monetizable AI capex (cloud platforms and their power-and-build-out upstreams), quality financials that can credibly expand ROTCE as duration headwinds fade, and gold as a policy-and-geopolitics hedge while dollar momentum is soft. Keep a differentiated stance within mega-cap tech: firms with internal-only AI spend face “show-me” risk on margins. Maintain optionality in energy rather than directional leverage. The biggest risks to this stance are an adverse Supreme Court outcome that ricochets through trade channels in unexpected ways, a negative surprise in CPI that re-firms real yields, an autonomy-related regulatory shock that crimps the Tesla/Robotaxi narrative, or an abrupt deterioration in the U.S.–China tone that revives dollar strength and commodity volatility.
For the lazy in my opinion:
* XAUUSD (Gold): Up
* S&P 500 (ES): Up
* Dow Jones (DJI): Up
* Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Up
* WTI Crude (CL): Up (modest; floor from China stockpiling)
* DXY (US Dollar Index): Down
* USDJPY: Down (yen firmer on softer USD/rates)
* UST 10Y Yield: Down (prices up)
* TSLA: Up (governance vote → “physical-AI” optionality)
* META: Down (capex/depr. overhang)
* GOOGL: Up (cloud/cash flow cushion)
* MSFT: Up (Azure strength)
* AMZN: Up (AWS monetizes AI demand)
* Bank of America (BAC): Up (ROTCE catch-up path)
* Energy equities (XLE): Down (oil capped, margin pressure)
* Copper: Up (grid/data-center buildout)
* EURUSD: Up (weaker USD)
* USDCNH: Down (yuan supported by flows)
* VIX: Down (risk premium easing)
The Shutdown Ends: How Will Gold Prices React?The Shutdown Ends: How Will Gold Prices React?
According to Reuters, the U.S. Senate on Monday approved a compromise deal to bring an end to the longest government shutdown in the country’s history.
During the shutdown:
→ millions of Americans lost access to food assistance programmes;
→ hundreds of thousands of federal employees went without pay;
→ air travel was severely disrupted.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential continuation of the shutdown appears to have contributed to a breakout in the price of gold (as a traditional safe-haven asset) above its recent consolidation zone, marked by black lines on the chart.
However, further gains could be capped not only by fading risk aversion but also by a less obvious resistance level, which the XAU/USD rate has reached today.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
Using the key pivot points (highlighted in bold), we can trace a descending channel, with the gold price now testing its upper boundary, where resistance may emerge.
Another argument supporting this view is that the price currently sits around the 50% retracement level of the A→B downswing. This area may attract sellers seeking to defend the downward trajectory of gold.
Whether this resistance line holds — or the bulls attempt to reignite the autumn rally — will largely depend on the tone of upcoming economic releases (delayed by the shutdown) and their impact on market expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut.
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