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Airbus,Leonardo and Thales:Europe targets space- Project BromoAirbus, Leonardo and Thales: Europe targets space with Project Bromo By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The planned agreement between Airbus (EPA: AIR), Leonardo (BIT: LDOF), and Thales (EPA: TCFP) to merge their satellite divisions under Project Bromo represents a far-reaching strategic move for the European aerospace sector. The goal is to challenge giants such as SpaceX/Starlink and Chinese state programs, while strengthening the European Union’s strategic autonomy in a key industry. For Airbus, a leader in defense and space, this step would expand its diversification beyond commercial aviation, consolidating its role as a benchmark in satellites and secure communications. Leonardo would benefit by expanding its footprint in a high-growth market, while Thales contributes its expertise in electronics and cybersecurity, essential for satellite applications. If the timeline is met, with a framework agreement in 2024 and final closing in 2025, Europe will have a space champion capable of competing on a global scale. Technical analysis of Airbus (Ticker AT: AIR) Airbus shares remain in a long-term uptrend that began in October 2022, moving within an ascending channel that has consistently respected the 200-day moving average. On Thursday, the stock hit a new high at €195, before closing Friday at €193.66, after firmly breaking through the key resistance of €186.92. The long-term outlook points to a continuation toward the €200 level. At the start of the week, a corrective move cannot be ruled out, potentially testing the breakout zone from last Tuesday. Moving average crossovers maintain a strong configuration, supporting the continuation of the main trend. In the short term, the RSI stands at 68.54%, close to overbought territory, which increases the likelihood of a technical pullback. In contrast, the MACD remains in an expansionary bullish phase, with the signal line above the histogram in positive territory, confirming strong momentum and directionality. The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse currently reads 2.5, leaning toward risk-on, though still with a neutral-mixed bias, reflecting cautious buying appetite in European markets. The point of control (POC) sits at €162.44, in line with the 50-day moving average, serving as a key support level. In the event of a correction, €173.54 and €168.24 stand as intermediate supports. Conversely, if the price holds above the current breakout, Airbus would enter free upside, with the next psychological target set at €200 in the short term. Bromo vs. SpaceX-Starlink Airbus is at a critical technical juncture: the recent breakout has reinforced its bullish bias, but proximity to overbought levels suggests possible short-term adjustments. Fundamentally, Airbus maintains a robust order book, supported by the recovery of global air traffic and rising demand for fuel-efficient aircraft. Furthermore, its participation in strategic European defense and satellite initiatives such as Project Bromo strengthens its diversification and competitive stance against U.S. rivals that currently dominate the market. These factors underpin its current valuation and provide additional support to the bullish outlook reflected in the technical picture. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
BME:AIRLong
by ActivTrades
MARKETS week ahead: September 15 – 21Markets are gearing up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting and surging expectations over a 25 basis points rate cut. These expectations have been priced during the week, where the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level, ending the week at 6.584. On the same expectations the price of gold surged to another all time highest level, closing the week at $3.643. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark dropped below the 4,0% at one moment, however, returned a bit back as of the end of the week at 4,068%. This time the crypto market was also in the eye of the investors, where BTC managed to break the $115K resistance, ending the week modestly below the $116K. The previous week started with the annual revision of non-farm payrolls, revealing a decline of 911,000 jobs, adding to concerns about a cooling U.S. labour market. In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 2.6%, while core PPI also dropped 0.1%. Both figures came in below market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, with core inflation slightly elevated at 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan showed September’s consumer sentiment at 51.8, slightly below the forecast of 54.9, while inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%. Declining jobs market increased market expectations to almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17th. Nvidia and OpenAI are reportedly in talks to fund a multibillion dollar AI infrastructure project in the U.K., centred on building new data centres, in partnership with cloud firm Nscale. The agreement is expected to be unveiled during President Trump’s state visit to Britain next week. Governments globally are increasingly trying to attract the tech giants to bolster their domestic “sovereign AI” capabilities. Gemini Space Station shares surged over 40% on Friday during their debut on the Nasdaq, opening at $37.01 under the ticker GEMI after being priced at $28, and reaching a high of $40.71. Founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the company was valued at $4.4 billion and joins a growing wave of crypto firms going public amid a loosening regulatory environment under current US Administration. News are reporting that investors have poured over $7 trillion into cash-like assets such as money market funds and high-yield savings, benefiting from recent Fed rate hikes. However, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates soon, these safe assets may lose appeal, prompting a shift toward riskier investments like stocks and bonds. Experts warn that a massive market rally fuelled by this "wall of cash" is unlikely unless rates drop close to zero. Historical data shows significant outflows from money funds only occur during major economic crises when rates are very low. CRYPTO MARKET A green week on the crypto market, supported by investors' expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates at their FOMC meeting, on September 17th. Almost all coins gained on this expectation surging the value of crypto coins mostly between 10% to 20%. At the same time total crypto capitalization passed the $4B mark, which represents another significant milestone for the crypto market. On a weekly level, total crypto market capitalization was increased by 8%, adding total $290B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes remained at higher levels, with turnovers of around $298B on a daily level. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +25%, with a total funds inflow of $803B. BTC was the coin to lead the market, however, other altcoins also performed well during the week. BTC gained $115B of funds, increasing its value by 5,2% for the week. ETH had a good week with a gain of 10,3%, adding $53B to its market cap. XRP gained almost 13% w/w, adding $21,5B to its value. Solana and Polkadot are worth mentioning, as both coins gained above 20% for the week. Certainly, the star of the week was DOGE, with an incredible weekly gain of 41%. Ospreys Dogecoin ETF started trading during the previous week, attracting investors' funds and letting the coin surge by 41%. Increased activity was also reflected in circulating coins. During the previous week, EOS increased the number of its coins on the market by 0,6%, while Algorand gained 0,5% of coins. Stellar managed to add 0,3% new coins to the market, same as Uniswap. Crypto futures market Investors' increased interest in ETH was recently exposed both on the spot and the crypto futures market. As per CME, the ETH futures open interest on this market has hit records of over $10B, as a reflection of institutional investors demand. ETH futures gained more than 7% during the previous week for all maturities. Futures expiring in December this year closed the week at $4.792, and those with the expiration date a year later were last traded at $5.143. This is a huge milestone as the long term futures returned once again to levels above the $5K mark. BTC futures also gained more than 4,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $119.565, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $126.490.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
$IDX:SMGR long with target price 2900 within 90 daysLONG position on IDX:SMGR with a target price 2900 in 90 days. Analyst price targets averaging 3,185.83 IDR, higher than the current 2,140.00 IDR. A Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.33 for Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk ( IDX:SMGR ) suggests that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value. SMGR’s low P/B ratio of 0.33 could make it an attractive target for foreign investors looking for undervalued assets. The low P/B ratio and EV/EBITDA NTM ratio indicate undervaluation compared to peers. This could appeal to value investors looking for bargains. Qatar has recently shown interest in Indonesian sectors like energy, tourism, and real estate, but nothing explicitly ties IDX:SMGR to Qatari funds. Without concrete deals or announcements, it’s speculative. However, low P/B can also signal concerns. The market might be pricing in risks like declining profitability, operational challenges, or sector-specific headwinds—cement is a cyclical industry tied to construction and infrastructure, which can be volatile. It’s also possible that the book value itself is inflated due to outdated or impaired assets. Current Share Price 2,140, 52-Week Low 2070, 52-Week High 5650. The current share price of 2,140.00 IDR, near the 52-week low, might suggest a buying opportunity for value investors, especially given IDX:SMGR ’s role as a state-owned cement giant tied to Indonesia’s infrastructure sector. Likely that infrastructure spending in 2025, including the new capital Nusantara, will boost cement demand, supporting long-term growth. IDX:SMGR holds over 40% of Indonesia's cement market and has recently acquired Semen Baturaja, potentially enhancing efficiency. Given the undervaluation, significant infrastructure spending, and analyst optimism, IDX:SMGR appears to have potential for a long trade.
IDX:SMGRLong
by bialoglowy
1
Dow Jones - FOMC idea: LONG to 47,000Fundamentals I don't think it is good idea to be selling the dollar any longer but it's still good to be long on equities indexes. There's a guaranteed rate cut of -0.25% from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Lowering interest rates means more people are going to borrow. More people spending, more businesses thriving, stocks go up, index go up. There are two more cuts to be expected for 2025 and that is what smart money is pricing in. That is the expectation. The Fed has chosen the labor market over inflation issue. The surprise here would be if the Fed changes its focus to inflation. Which could stun or drop the indexes. That is unlikely that is why it is high probability long. Technical It's too early to tell right now, how the price action is going to be. If price action changes on tuesday, I'm going to be doing the same thing. That is to find liquidity of bandwagon buyers, at an obvious break and retest support. Below that where stops and sell stops is I estimate where the discounted smart money longs would be. That is 45,500 I will not be putting a buy limit until Wednesday London session that is if price action remains the same
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by tagasuyo
Gold H1 📊 Gold H1 Analysis On the H1 timeframe, we spotted a clean setup: ✅ First, an FVG formed and later flipped into an Inversion FVG. ✅ Price is now approaching the CRT (Continuation Rejection Test) zone. ✅ Once CRT is tested, we’re looking for a buy entry to ride the bullish momentum. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: • Inversion FVG Zone • CRT Support Level 💡 This is a textbook example of how Inversion FVG + CRT can provide a high-probability entry. Patience here is key — wait for the test, then execute with confidence.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ict_smc_chartist
Gold price analysis September 15Gold price is still fluctuating in the accumulation zone of 3657 - 3620 without showing enough strength to break this range. There is no clear signal of a downward correction wave, so the priority for trading during this period is still to wait for BUY according to the main uptrend. SELL orders should only be executed when there is a decisive break of the lower edge of the accumulation zone, then the price can continue to decrease to the important support zone of 3580 on the weekly chart. 📉 Notable trading zones: Prioritize BUY when the price reacts positively at the support zone of 3580 DCA is possible when the price breaks and closes a confirmation candle above 3657 🎯 Expected target: 3716
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
BTC/USD 15/09/2025: Bullish Setup Awaits Fed DecisionHey TradingView traders! On September 15, 2025, Bitcoin is chilling around 115,491 - 116,009 USD with slight volatility (+0.11% to +0.25% in the last 24 hours). The market vibe is neutral, but could this be the calm before the storm as we await the Fed’s interest rate decision this week? Let’s dive into a detailed analysis to help you seize the opportunity! 💰 Market Overview: Stable but Packed with Potential BTC continues to dominate with a market cap of 2.31 trillion USD, ruling the crypto space. 24-hour trading volume hits 33.29 billion USD (+4.72%), signaling steady investor participation but not enough for a strong bullish push yet. Circulating supply stands at 19.92 million BTC (94.86% of the 21 million total), easing internal inflationary pressure and supporting long-term value. What do you think—can BTC maintain its 92.27% yearly gain? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 📊 Technical Analysis: Double Bottom and Bullish Channel Heating Up Support & Resistance Levels: Solid support at 114,000 - 115,000 USD (holding strong since early September). Nearest resistance at 116,000 - 116,500 USD—if broken, the next target is 120,000 USD! Failure to break could lead to a retest of 114,000 USD. Don’t miss a potential breakout! ⚠️ Trend: The market is forming a double bottom pattern from September’s low, with the bullish channel still intact. The Fear & Greed Index at 53-55 (Neutral) shows balanced investor sentiment—no excessive FOMO or panic. RSI is neutral, MACD slightly weakening, but the overall signal is “Buy” for the daily timeframe! 📉 Macro Factors & News: Is the Fed the Final Boss? The market is holding its breath for the Fed’s expected 0.25% rate cut this week—if it happens, risk-on capital could flood into BTC like a waterfall! 🌊 On the bullish side: Billionaire Tim Draper is pushing for wider BTC adoption, predicting 250,000 USD by the end of 2025; Capital Group turned a 1 billion USD investment into 6 billion USD in profits. But watch out for whale dumps and weak altcoins (e.g., SHIB down 3.22%)—these could drag BTC down. Are you ready for the volatility? 🔥 Forecast & Trading Plan: Action Time for Traders Short-Term (1-7 Days): Expect a range of 114,000 - 117,000 USD, with the Fed decision as the key catalyst. If rates are cut, BTC could test 120,000 USD; otherwise, there’s a risk of dropping to 114,000 USD. Probability of a rise: 60% if it holds above 115,000 USD—perfect time to go long! 📈 Long-Term (2025-2030): Strongly bullish! Changelly predicts 116,220 USD today, climbing to 117,978 USD tomorrow; Investing Haven sees stability around 116,087 USD. With the previous halving and institutional accumulation, BTC could surpass 200,000 USD by year-end. Diversify your portfolio to manage risks, though! 💡 Traders, it’s time to act! Keep an eye on the BTC/USD chart on TradingView and share your thoughts in the comments. DYOR and trade safely! 👍 #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoAnalysis #TradingView #FedRateCut #BullishBTC #Crypto2025 #Altcoins #WhaleWatch #FearAndGreed
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
The Most Important Week of the Year-End for the Stock Market!We are finally here. The Fed is expected to resume lowering the federal funds rate this Wednesday, September 17. Here is what will really matter on Wednesday: • The magnitude of the rate cut (0.25% or 0.50%) • The update of the Fed’s macroeconomic projections (its forecasts for inflation, employment, and also the path of interest rates) • The trajectory ahead (for the end of 2025) of the federal funds rate • Jerome Powell’s press conference, particularly his assessment of the timeframe for normalizing inflation with tariffs After a summer of speculation, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will unveil this Wednesday, September 17, a monetary policy decision that could redefine the trajectory of financial markets through year-end. This meeting is not a simple technical adjustment: it embodies all the tensions accumulated since Jerome Powell and the FOMC members paused their rate-cutting cycle last December. This may be the moment of the famous “pivot” investors have been waiting for since early 2025. The underlying question is simple: will the Fed settle for a limited 25 basis point cut, or surprise with a more aggressive “jumbo cut”? The decision will not only concern the immediate level of rates but also the message sent to markets: the path of monetary policy for the remainder of 2025, consistency with inflation and employment projections, and above all, the balance of power among the 12 FOMC voting members. Recall that 7 votes out of 12 are needed to approve a rate cut, and Jerome Powell counts as only one vote among the 12. In short, it’s not just a number but a trajectory of monetary policy. And it is this trajectory that will shape the year-end trend of risky assets in the stock market. If Powell manages to open the door to clearer easing while remaining consistent with his latest macro forecasts, the market may finally gain the visibility it has been demanding. Otherwise, we risk staying in an uncertainty zone where every employment or inflation statistic reignites doubts. And in this game, the referee remains the same: the US 2-year yield. It is the US 2-year Treasury yield that best anticipates the upcoming path of the federal funds rate. The S&P 500, the barometer of large caps, and the Russell 2000, more sensitive to domestic conditions, will hang on Powell’s words. The Fed will update many macroeconomic data this Wednesday, but ultimately one factor will dominate: the “Fed Cut Path” – the number of rate cuts expected by year-end. This will be directly tied to the timeframe the Fed deems necessary to normalize inflation. In short, the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, September 17, will shape the year-end stock market trend. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
XAUUSD – Pennant Formation Awaiting ConfirmationXAUUSD – Pennant Formation Awaiting Confirmation Good day Traders, Gold commenced the week with a sharp advance of nearly 20 dollars after retesting the ascending trendline. This rebound reinforces the development of a Pennant Flag pattern, and the market now awaits a decisive breakout to provide clearer trading opportunities. Bullish Scenario A break above the upper boundary of the pattern, with confirmation ideally beyond 3657, would support continuation of the prevailing uptrend. An optimal entry may be considered around 3650, with initial targets towards 3680. Bearish Scenario The 3627 level is a critical marker. A decisive close beneath this level, which also coincides with nearby support, would validate a short-term bearish outlook. Entries may be initiated immediately on the break, or more conservatively on a retest around 3630. Downside potential extends towards the 356x region, with scope for deeper correction should momentum persist. Medium-Term Perspective The 3560 – 3564 zone is highlighted as a favourable medium-term accumulation area, supported by an FVG and strong volume profile. A wider stop, below 3544, would be necessary. While this requires sufficient account capacity, the trade aligns with the broader bullish structure and offers attractive reward potential. This represents my trading outlook for gold today. Traders are encouraged to observe these levels closely and align them with their own analysis and risk management practices. For those actively trading gold, you may follow my updates here and join the community to receive timely insights whenever price action shifts. 👉 Wishing all traders a disciplined and successful week ahead with Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
ES — Week Ahead (Sep 15–19) — Fundamentals & Key Risk WindowsMacro focus: FOMC (Wed 2:00/2:30 pm ET), plus Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and LEI. Calendar (ET): Tue 9/16 • Retail Sales (Aug) 8:30 — Census schedule confirms Sep 16, 8:30 am release. • Industrial Production (Aug) 9:15 — G.17 release calendar shows Sep 16 at 9:15 am. • NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 10:00 — NAHB schedule sets Sep 16, 10:00 am. • FOMC (Day 1) begins — Fed calendar. Wed 9/17 • Housing Starts/Permits (Aug) 8:30 — Census/HUD note next report Sep 17, 8:30 am. • FOMC Statement 2:00 / Powell 2:30 — Fed event calendar. Thu 9/18 • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 — DOL weekly; last print 263k (spike tied to TX/fraud anomalies). • Philly Fed (MBOS) 8:30 — 3rd Thu schedule. • Conference Board LEI 10:00 — next release Sep 18, 10:00 am. Fri 9/19 • State Employment (Aug) 10:00 — BLS schedule. • (FYI for next week: Existing Home Sales (Aug) Tue Sep 23, 10:00 am.) Context to watch: • Markets widely expect a 25 bp cut at the Sep 16–17 FOMC; path/“dots” and Powell’s tone matter more than the cut size. • Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 55.4 with inflation expectations elevated (1-yr 4.8%, 5-yr 3.9%). Tomorrow (Mon 9/15) — Trade Plan Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00. News risk: NAHB 10:00 (size down or wait 2–3m around print) Long from support 6586 → TP1 6600 • 15m trigger: Rejection at 6586 (close ≥ 6587 after testing ≤ 6585). • 5m confirm: Higher-low + close ≥ 6588. • 1m entry: First retest that closes back above 6587. • Hard SL: 15m wick low − 0.25–0.50. • TP1: 6600 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE). • TP2 (runner): 6606.25. Short from resistance 6600 → TP1 6586 • 15m trigger: Rejection at 6600 (close < 6596.5 after probing ≥ 6598.5). • 5m confirm: Lower-high + close < 6596.0. • 1m entry: First retest that closes back below 6596.5. • Hard SL: 15m wick high + 0.25–0.50. • TP1: 6586 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE). • TP2 (runner): 6581.50. Weekly plan—how fundamentals change our timing • Tue AM (Retail Sales 8:30 / IP 9:15 / HMI 10:00): Expect a more directional NY AM; trade level→level but avoid first prints by ±3–5m. • Wed (FOMC 2:00/2:30): Treat NY PM as the main event; no positions carried into 1:55–2:35 unless already at TP1 with runner @ BE. • Thu (Claims/Philly/LEI): 8:30–10:00 stack can create a trend morning; trade acceptance if a 15m body prints through a level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
IONQ 's Ascending Triangle Breakout!IONQ has completed a prolonged consolidation phase, forming a textbook ascending triangle with a flat resistance ceiling at $48 and steadily rising higher lows. This structure represents clear accumulation pressure, with buyers consistently stepping in at higher price points. Breakout Confirmation: The stock has now broken above the $48 resistance with a surge in volume, validating the bullish breakout. This is a strong technical signal that the next leg higher has begun, rather than a false move. Target Zones: Measured move target (triangle projection): $80–82 Intermediate resistance: $98–109 (psychological and technical zones) Extended target: $130–135 (171% projection, aligning with long-term triangle objective) Risk Management: The $48 breakout zone now acts as a critical support level. A sustained close below would negate the bullish breakout and suggest a failed pattern. As long as price remains above $48, momentum favors higher levels. Volume & Momentum: The recent volume spike at breakout confirms institutional participation. This is crucial, as breakouts from long consolidations often trigger strong trending moves when backed by volume. Macro/Sector Context: IONQ remains a flagship in quantum computing. The sector continues to benefit from rising AI + high-performance computing investments, making IONQ a key proxy for investor sentiment in the space. A breakout here could attract even more capital inflows into quantum plays. ✅ Conclusion: IONQ’s breakout above $48 confirms the end of its consolidation and the start of a new bullish cycle. With well-defined support and multiple upside targets ( $80 → $100+ → $130), the risk/reward profile remains highly favorable. As long as the breakout level holds, the chart supports a multi-leg rally with significant upside potential.
NYSE:IONQLong
by HernandezCapital
8
NASDAQ 100: A Tipping Point on the 4H ChartKey Takeaway NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) is at a critical juncture, hovering at a potential inflection point around the 24,000 level. A clear breakout above or breakdown below this psychological and technical area will likely dictate the next major move for the index, presenting distinct opportunities for both bulls and bears. Macro View NASDAQ 100 has been in a strong rising trend channel for the medium to long term, indicating persistent investor optimism. The overall technical outlook remains positive. However, recent price action on the 4hour chart suggests a period of indecision, with the index consolidating just below its recent highs. This consolidation, combined with the emergence of a potential head and shoulders pattern, signals that a significant move is imminent. Bearish Outlook: A Breakdown Scenario A breakdown below the key support level at 23,800 would be a significant bearish signal. This level is crucial as it marks the lower boundary of the current consolidation zone. • Target 1: 23,700 A move below the first key support could quickly see the index test the 23,700 level, which has acted as a previous point of interest. • Target 2: 23,450 A break of the 23,700 support would confirm a deeper correction, with the next major target being 23,450. This level coincides with a significant volume node and previous support, making it a strong magnet for price. Risk Management: A stoploss should be placed just above the resistance to mitigate risk in a false breakdown. Bullish Outlook: A Breakout Scenario The bullish case is contingent on the index successfully holding the 24,000 psychological level and breaking above the key resistance at 24,208.5. • Target 1: 24,463 A confirmed breakout would likely propel the index toward the upper boundary of the rising channel, with a primary target of 24,463. This level represents a key extension of the current trend. • Target 2: 24,600 A decisive move beyond 24,463 would suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum, with a secondary target at 24,600. This level aligns with a major extension and could see the index set new all-time highs. Risk Management: A stop loss should be placed just below the support to protect against a trend reversal. Conclusion NASDAQ 100 is at a pivotal moment. Traders should watch for a clear break in either direction before entering a position. The 24,000 level is a critical pivot, and the ensuing price action will provide a clear roadmap for the market's next move.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by SufiyanShabbirGangdani
Long TLT/SPY📌 Bonds Explained: What They Are, How They Work & Key Risks Bonds are one of the oldest and most important financial instruments in global markets. They are used by governments, corporations, and institutions to raise money, and by investors to earn income, diversify portfolios, and manage risk. At their core, a bond is a loan: The issuer (borrower) raises capital by selling bonds. The investor (lender) provides money in exchange for periodic interest payments (coupon payments) and the return of the principal (face value) at maturity. 🔹 1. What is a Bond? When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the issuer. The issuer promises: Interest payments (usually fixed) on a regular schedule (semiannual or annual). Repayment of principal (the original investment amount) when the bond matures. 📌 Example: You invest $1,000,000 in a 10-year bond paying 3% annually (semiannual coupons). Every 6 months, you receive $15,000 in interest payments. At the end of 10 years, you (hopefully) receive back your original $1,000,000 principal. 🔹 2. Why Do Companies and Governments Issue Bonds? Governments → Fund infrastructure, social programs, defense, or refinance existing debt. Corporations → Finance expansion, research, acquisitions, or refinance loans. Municipalities → Build schools, hospitals, and roads. Bonds allow issuers to access large pools of capital without giving up ownership (like stocks). 🔹 3. Why Do Investors Buy Bonds? Stable Income: Regular coupon payments. Capital Preservation: Return of principal at maturity (assuming no default). Diversification: Bonds often behave differently from stocks, balancing risk. Hedging Inflation/Interest Rates: Certain bonds (like TIPS) protect against inflation. Relative Safety: High-quality government bonds are considered safe-haven assets. 🔹 4. Key Types of Bonds Government Bonds Issued by sovereign states. Example: U.S. Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds. Generally low risk, lower yields. Corporate Bonds Issued by companies. Higher yields than government bonds but higher risk. Municipal Bonds Issued by local governments or agencies. Often come with tax benefits for investors. High-Yield (Junk) Bonds Issued by lower-credit issuers. Higher potential returns, but much riskier. Inflation-Protected Bonds Coupon/principal linked to inflation. Example: U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). 🔹 5. Three Main Risks of Investing in Bonds Even though bonds are often seen as “safe,” they carry risks that investors must understand: 1️⃣ Credit Risk (Default Risk) The issuer may fail to pay coupons or repay the principal. Higher with corporate bonds and emerging market government bonds. Mitigated by credit ratings (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch). 📌 Example: If a company defaults, you may lose part or all of your investment. 2️⃣ Interest Rate Risk Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates rise, existing bond prices fall (since new bonds offer better yields). If you sell before maturity, you could face a loss. 📌 Example: You bought a 10-year bond at 3%. A year later, rates rise to 5%. Your bond’s market value falls, because investors prefer newer bonds paying higher coupons. 3️⃣ Inflation Risk (Purchasing Power Risk) Even if you hold the bond to maturity, rising inflation erodes the real value of your returns. A 3% coupon loses attractiveness if inflation rises to 6%. 📌 Example: Your bond pays $30,000 annually, but inflation pushes up costs by $40,000 per year → you are effectively losing purchasing power. 🔹 6. Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds: Debt, fixed income, contractual obligation, lower risk, limited upside. Stocks: Equity ownership, dividends (optional), higher risk, unlimited upside. In a company bankruptcy, bondholders are paid before shareholders. 🔹 7. How Investors Use Bonds in Portfolios Income generation: Retirees and pension funds rely on coupon payments. Diversification: Bonds often rise when stocks fall, reducing portfolio volatility. Risk management: Safe-haven bonds (like Treasuries) act as “insurance” during crises. Speculation: Traders can bet on interest rate moves via bond futures and ETFs. 🔹 8. Bonds vs. Stocks: The TLT–SPY Correlation One of the most widely followed relationships in global markets is the correlation between: TLT → iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (tracks long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds). SPY → SPDR S&P 500 ETF (tracks U.S. equities). 📈 Historical Relationship Over the past two decades, TLT and SPY have often moved in opposite directions. (The Correlation between SPY/TLT often hovers around 0.) Why? When stocks sell off, investors typically seek safety in Treasuries, pushing bond prices up (yields down). This negative correlation makes bonds a powerful diversifier in equity-heavy portfolios (60/40). 📌 Example: 2008 Financial Crisis → SPY plunged ~37%, while long-dated Treasuries (TLT) surged as investors fled to safety. March 2020 COVID Crash → SPY fell ~34% peak-to-trough, TLT spiked ~20% as the Fed cut rates and investors piled into Treasuries. 🐂 Strategy #1 (MA): Buy SPY when TLT crosses below the 95 MA. Sell SPY when TLT crosses above the 95 MA. 🔄 But the Correlation Can Shift In inflationary environments, bonds and stocks can fall together. 2022 is a perfect example: Inflation spiked → Fed hiked rates aggressively. TLT dropped ~30% (yields surged). SPY also fell ~19%. Both asset classes sold off simultaneously, breaking the hedge. 🐂 Strategy #2 (Re-Balancing): Buy TLT at the close of the seventh last trading day of the month. Sell TLT at the close of the last trading day of the month. Sell TLT short at the close of the month. Cover TLT at the close of the seventh trading day of the month. Higher Returns after rate hikes. 📊 Why This Matters for Investors In normal times: TLT acts as a counterweight to SPY, smoothing portfolio volatility. In inflationary shocks: Both can decline, reducing diversification benefits. Lesson: Don’t assume bonds will always hedge equities — context (inflation, Fed policy, growth cycles) matters. 📌 Practical Uses of the TLT–SPY Correlation Portfolio Diversification A 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) relies on the negative correlation. Works best when inflation is low and stable. Risk-On / Risk-Off Gauge If both SPY and TLT rise → markets are calm, liquidity flows into both risk and safety. If SPY falls while TLT rises → classic risk-off move (flight to safety). If both fall → inflation or policy tightening environment (no safe haven). Trading Signals Divergence trades: When SPY rallies but TLT also rallies strongly, it may signal equity rally exhaustion (risk-off brewing). Macro hedge: Long TLT positions can offset downside risk in SPY-heavy portfolios — but only in disinflationary or deflationary shocks. 🔹 9. EWJ–TLT Correlation: Japan Equities vs. U.S. Treasuries EWJ → Tracks Japanese equities (large & mid-cap companies). TLT → Tracks U.S. long-dated Treasuries. Unlike the classic SPY–TLT inverse correlation, the EWJ–TLT relationship is more complex, shaped by: Global risk sentiment (risk-on/risk-off flows). Currency effects (USD/JPY exchange rate). Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment (BoJ policy). 📈 Historical Tendencies 1️⃣ Risk-Off Periods (Global crises → flight to safety): TLT rallies (U.S. Treasuries bid). EWJ often falls, as Japanese equities are highly cyclical and export-driven. Negative correlation dominates. 📌 Example: 2008 Crisis → TLT surged; EWJ plunged with global equities. 2020 COVID Crash → Same pattern: safety flows to Treasuries, Japanese stocks sold. 2️⃣ Risk-On Periods (Liquidity, global growth optimism): EWJ rallies with global equities. TLT may drift lower (yields rising on stronger growth). Correlation weak to moderately negative. 📌 Example: 2016–2018: Global growth rebound → EWJ rose, TLT fell as U.S. yields climbed. 3️⃣ Currency Channel (USD/JPY) Japanese equities (EWJ) are sensitive to the yen. A stronger USD/JPY (weaker yen) boosts exporters (good for EWJ). TLT rallies often coincide with USD weakness (yields down, dollar down), which can hurt Japanese exporters, adding another layer of inverse correlation. 🔄 Shifts Over Time Long-term average correlation: Mildly negative (similar to SPY–TLT, but weaker). During inflation shocks (2022): Correlation turned positive at times: TLT fell as U.S. yields spiked. EWJ also struggled due to global tightening & yen weakness. Both moved down together, breaking the hedge. 📊 Why EWJ–TLT Matters Global Diversification Check: Investors often think Japanese equities diversify U.S. equities, but they can be just as cyclical. Adding TLT creates the real hedge. Risk-Off Signal: When both EWJ and TLT rise, it may indicate global liquidity easing (rare but bullish). Currency Overlay: Always factor USD/JPY → sometimes EWJ’s move is more about currency than equities. 🐂 Strategy #3 (EWJ): When Japanese stocks are above their 150-day moving average, go long TLT (US long-term Treasury). When the average is below the 150-day average, stay out. The correlation between TLT and EWJ can serve as a breath signal. 📌 Conclusion: Bonds as the Foundation of Finance Bonds are the backbone of the global financial system, connecting borrowers (governments, corporations) with lenders (investors). ✅ Bonds provide regular income and capital preservation. ✅ They carry risks: credit, interest rate, and inflation. ✅ They are essential for diversification and risk management. ✅The TLT–SPY correlation is dynamic. Historically negative, providing diversification. In inflationary shocks (like 2022), the correlation turns positive, breaking the hedge. ✅ EWJ–TLT is a Global Macro Hedge, But Fragile. Usually inverse: Risk-off = TLT up, EWJ down. Sometimes aligned: Inflation shocks or synchronized global tightening → both down. Currency filter essential: USD/JPY often mediates the relationship. This makes EWJ–TLT correlation a powerful barometer of global macro regimes: Disinflationary slowdowns → Strong hedge. Inflationary crises → Hedge breaks. For investors, understanding bonds is crucial, even if you primarily trade equities or commodities, because bond yields influence everything: stock valuations, mortgage rates, and even currency markets.
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by GabrielAmadeusLau
Yes the chicken man - PPC Short?PPC is at the bottom of a monthly box and at VAL of the daily and weekly anchored volume profile. It could catch a bid here and retest $45.60s(VPOC). If the retest ends in a rejection of that area, and a daily close below the previous low around $41.95 then I expect short continuation and validation of the H&S. I would especially like this trade after a retest and rejection of box bottom around $43.41 - $43.30. My targets would be 40.11, 38.98, 37.27,35.96 then 33.72.
NASDAQ:PPC
by The_Villain_777
1
$MPLX (MPLX LP) - Long SetupTrading Idea: NYSE:MPLX (MPLX LP) - Long Setup 🎯 Idea: LONG ⏰ Timeframe: Daily 📊 Pattern: Bullish Continuation + RSI2 Connors Buy Signal Fundamental Context: Fundamental Score: 4/9 (Neutral). Business: Energy Infrastructure & Logistics (MLP). Yield: Attractive Dividend Yield (not shown in data, but typical for sector). Valuation: Undervalued on P/E; Overvalued on P/B and P/S. Debt: Moderate (Debt Score: 5/10). Common for midstream companies. Technical Setup: Trend (D1): Bullish ✅ Catalyst: Recent RSI2 Connors Buy Signal (oversold bounce in uptrend). Entry: $51.08 (Current level post-signal). Stop Loss (SL): $49.16 (Below key support & the 20-period SMA). Take Profit (TP): $55.01 (Previous resistance target + Measured Move). Momentum: MACD positive and above signal line, supporting upward move. Risk Management: Risk/Reward (R:R): 1:2.0 Position size accordingly. Ideal for income-focused portfolios. Summary: Buying the oversold bounce in a steady bullish trend, targeting a move to new highs for both capital appreciation and dividend income. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for your own trades and investments. Past performance is never indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. MLPs have unique tax implications (K-1). Understand these before investing. #TradingView #MPLX #Long #Energy #MLP #Midstream #Dividend #RSI2 #Connors #TradingSetup
NYSE:MPLXLong
by shortermtrader