Weekly QQQ (US100) Outlook - Prediction (09 NOV)Weekly QQQ Outlook - Prediction (09 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains slightly bearish as expectations for a December rate cut may be postponed into 2026. We have seen some sell-offs, likely due to hedging or profit-taking activity. However, the market experienced a healthy bounce last Friday, as anticipated in my previous Daily SPY Outlook on November 7.
Today, Trump announced that American citizens, excluding high-income individuals, will receive a $2,000 payment. This news could inject additional liquidity into risk assets, similar to what occurred during his first term. In my opinion, this development may create a short-term bullish narrative for the markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price retraced throughout the week and reached the 600 level. The 601 zone represents the most discounted range (based on my quarterly range theory, 0.75 fib level), which I consider an optimal buy area. This level also aligns with daily swing liquidity, and the recent reaction suggests a potential move toward new all-time highs.
📌 Game Plan
I’m considering two possible scenarios for this week:
Scenario 1 (Black Line):
In my opinion, the price now has enough momentum to extend higher and create new all-time highs. Therefore, I’ll be watching for a daily close above the 613 level. If confirmed, I plan to buy QQQ calls targeting new highs.
Scenario 2 (Red Line):
If the price fails to close above 613, it may indicate that more accumulation is needed before another upward move. In that case, I’ll look to short (buy puts) toward the 596 level and observe whether we can bounce from there. Should that happen, I’ll then switch to calls and target higher prices.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Daily SPY (US500) Outlook - Prediction (10 NOV)📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains slightly bearish as expectations for a December rate cut may be postponed into 2026. We have seen some sell-offs, likely due to hedging or profit-taking activity. However, the market experienced a healthy bounce last Friday, as anticipated in my previous Daily SPY Outlook on November 7.
Trump announced that American citizens, excluding high-income individuals, will receive a $2,000 payment. This news could inject additional liquidity into risk assets, similar to what occurred during his first term. In my opinion, this may create a short-term bullish narrative for the markets.
📈 Technical Analysis
The ES market is showing strong pre-market inflows. I think the price may continue seeking higher levels, possibly targeting the 681 zone today.
📌 Game Plan
In my opinion, calls may perform well today. I plan to buy at the market open and take profits around the 681 level.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
USD/CAD Reversal from Channel Resistance ContinuesUSD/CAD rates are continuing their reversal lower within their multi-month uptrend following last week’s Canadian jobs figures. Stronger than expected jobs growth in Canada has helped tamp down Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut odds through the end of the year, while the prospect of Trump’s tariffs being struck down by the Supreme Court have likewise emboldened the Loonie. In the options market, Canadian Dollar futures are currently in the 48th percentile for volatility over the past year, highest among major USD-pairs.
In the above chart, USD/CAD rates have backed away from rising channel resistance, marked by the February 2025 swing low near 1.4151. The reversal in recent sessions is pushing the pair back into the area between the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day EMA, which proved itself as support at the end of October. A drop below the 100-day EMA would produce a break of the rising channel in motion since mid-June. At first blush, dip buyers may be in play closer to 1.3900 on a continued pullback.
EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context
(Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown)
The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes.
💭 Sentiment
Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached.
📈 Seasonality
Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December.
📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed.
RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum.
The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets.
Main Bias: Short continuation
Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply)
Target 1: 1.1400
Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool)
Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715
Summary
📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data
📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November
📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible
🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Natural Gas Building Momentum for a New Impulsive RallyNatural Gas Building Momentum for a New Impulsive Rally
On the 4-hour timeframe, Natural Gas is forming large continuation patterns, signaling potential for another upward move.
An accumulation phase was observed in early September 2025, followed by another at the beginning of October. As we enter a new month, the price may be preparing to launch a fresh impulsive leg to the upside, as illustrated in the chart, before entering another corrective phase.
Key target levels:
4.28
4.48
4.60
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Amd - Here comes the massive reversal!🩻Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is starting to reverse:
🔎Analysis summary:
Starting back in mid 2025, Amd retested a major confluence of support and rallied about +200%. All of this was expected and the rally ended with a retest of a significant trendline. Eventually, after some back and forth, Amd will then create a short term retracement.
📝Levels to watch:
$250
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Gold - The bullrun is over today!💰Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) creates a massive top:
🔎Analysis summary:
Starting all the way back in 2015, Gold created a major rounding bottom pattern. After the breakout, Gold started its major bullrun, rallying about +300% over the past couple of years. But after this rally, Gold is now showing clear signs of a serious top formation.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Bank of America Retests Multi-Year Highs as Momentum Builds Bank of America’s stock has officially revisited a key multi-year high zone, a level the market last interacted with meaningfully back in 2021. The current structure, as shown in the chart, reflects a very clean technical narrative: a major base, a breakout, and a return to the upper supply zone that has historically triggered profit-taking.
From mid-2023 through early 2024, BAC went through a long accumulation/structural repair cycle. Buyers defended demand aggressively between the $32–$35 region, which acted like a clear multi-touch floor. That zone eventually formed the bottom that launched the entire current rally leg. Once that base held, structural higher-lows began to form and the stock convincingly reclaimed the $48–$50 area, which used to be a stubborn supply wall in previous cycles. That former resistance has now flipped into support.
What stands out today is that BAC is now testing the $54 region, the area representing a major swing high and the top of the structure. This is where price historically reacted sharply, so it is a true macro decision zone. If bulls can hold above this region and convert it into a support shelf, the next phase could trigger a fresh price discovery sequence, with the potential to unlock a new upper range beyond the 2021 highs.
Volume behaviour remains steady, not euphoric, suggesting this move is being driven more by real accumulation rather than speculative blow-off flows.
Heading into the next quarter, macro yields, bank earnings expectations, and broad market risk appetite will dictate whether BAC sustains this breakout. But purely technically, the stock is exactly where major trend continuations historically begin, or trend reversals historically show themselves.
UBER Stock Analysis: Trading Range and Earnings ReactionEarnings Report and Market Reaction
On November 4th, Uber ( NYSE:UBER ) reported its latest earnings, surpassing expectations by an impressive 338%. The company’s earnings growth reached 159%, and revenue increased by 20.4%. Despite these strong financial results, the stock price closed lower compared to the previous day. This outcome highlights the often unpredictable nature of the market, where investor reactions to news can differ significantly from initial expectations. In this case, it appears that investors were anticipating even higher numbers.
Establishing a Trading Range
Since late September, Uber’s stock has been trading within a defined range. Recognizing this pattern, I initiated a position on November 4th at $93.33 per share and set a stop order just below that day’s low. To date, the stop has not been triggered, and I continue to hold the stock. My analysis of the stock’s behavior today confirmed the existence of this trading range.
Position Management and Risk Assessment
Based on my observations, I decided to add to my position in anticipation of the price moving toward the top of the established range. There is also the potential for a breakout, which could lead to new highs. For now, I am maintaining my original stop just below $90 per share, establishing a risk of 3.8%. This risk-reward profile is favorable, as I am targeting an upside move of approximately 8%.
Important Considerations for Investors
Readers are strongly encouraged to analyze this trading idea independently and consistently apply their own trading rules. It is crucial to remember that all investments carry risk, and making informed decisions with your own capital is essential.
$META Stock Heavy AI Spending Could Power Nvidia’s Next GrowthMeta Platforms Inc. (Nasdaq: NASDAQ:META ) stock rebounded 2.26% to $632.90 on Monday after a steep 17% post-earnings decline since October 29. The drop followed investor concern over Meta’s escalating artificial intelligence (AI) investments, but analysts suggest those expenditures could significantly benefit Nvidia (Nasdaq: NASDAQ:NVDA ) in the long run.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg reaffirmed Meta’s commitment to its AI road map, emphasizing ongoing investment in custom data centers and top-tier AI research talent. The company plans to expand its infrastructure to support advanced machine learning models for its platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, and Threads.
Meta’s aggressive capital spending, which reached over $30 billion in 2025, is largely allocated toward GPU-powered servers. This directly supports Nvidia, whose advanced chips remain the preferred choice for AI training and inference workloads. By building a massive in-house AI ecosystem, Meta aims to strengthen user engagement through smarter recommendation systems, generative features, and enhanced ad targeting.
Investors initially reacted negatively to the spending ramp-up, viewing it as a short-term drag on profitability. However, analysts believe Meta’s strategy mirrors its successful long-term bets on mobile and social video. The company’s growing reliance on AI infrastructure could secure its dominance in digital advertising and social engagement over the next decade.
Technical View
The META chart shows a recovery attempt after a sharp pullback from $796 highs. The price found temporary support near $600, with potential for a short-term dip toward the long-term trendline before resuming its uptrend. The projected path suggests a rebound toward the $796 resistance level in early 2026.
While near-term volatility persists, Meta’s AI expansion positions the company, and indirectly Nvidia, for significant upside in the evolving artificial intelligence market.
Chinese Ethereum As much as I’m digging the belief that we actually never had 4 years cycle in altcoins getting stronger, if feels like a cool off years after 2017 cycle for old Altcoins specifically, now if you observe Neo you obviously can’t find a discipline or repetitive action. Or you see manipulation or hold off . Price playing at March 2020 level , in a huge channel on a strong historical support, I honestly can’t believe we won’t hold this support, if we start climbing we’ll sit in ATH by mid 2026 fingers crossed, DYOR .
Continuation short for UC after good liquidity grabPrice grab liquidity making this trade idea valid. Fibonacci from our high point to low point, Price tag us in the trade and after a couple of minutes when straight to our Break Even Point.
After that price went back to our entry price taking us out with a BE and continuation to the down side
EUR USD long. Fundamental explanation It's a 'risk on trade'. Suggestions an end to the showdown is in sight, plus dovish noises coming out of Japan contribute to the market starting the week in a good mood.
I would suggest any form of risk on trade is viable. I've chosen the EUR to long because I like the support I have placed a stop loss behind, plus the profit target isn't asking for a new high.
I've chosen the USD to short because in this moment, it is weaker than the JPY and CHF, plus I've read an end to the shutdown is likely to be USD negative.
The risk to the trade is negative market sentiment. Or, I should have longed a currency with more momentum (such as the AUD). Likewise, maybe JPY is the better short option.
It is a trade I will leave overnight, until conclusion either way.
Sonic , the bottom For descriptions jump to previous charts, explained more about the idea that we’re at the bottom and why we might go up , the almost one year of red candles is crazy but that’s the situation with almost all the alts , now if you can’t handle few x to the cellar how do you expect those 10xs ? Lol
Let’s remain calm and observe. Right now we are in a crucial support and I hope it does hold and be a good one and let us go up , it does looks like a break down but as I remember previous cycle breakdowns like this are fake .
Atom , update .Didn’t went well as 4 years cycle fooled most of us and almost at the. Mars 2020 level , now that we left the 4 year cycle behind I can see clearly that we hit the bottom, RSI bullish divergence with price channel tightening tells us a possible reversal is on the edge, for me an ATH is ideal and possible, remember the history is being written by tough times.
Rune will riseI’m so excited about Rune . It’s an essential to the market and will do great in the green like it used to , it’s very cheap and worth stacking, last cycle and this one are pretty much rhythm wise, you can see it in the macd behaviour, for me it’s the bottom sign and I anticipate a slow reversal in coming weeks.
Stay safe guys
Gold Breaks above $4050, what is next? Gold prices continued to edge higher on Monday amid growing market speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December. Despite earlier comments from several Fed officials suggesting no rate cuts this year, the probability of a December cut has strengthened. This renewed optimism has once again boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, in my view, the recent price rise isn’t solely driven by expectations of rate cuts. There are several broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors contributing to gold’s bullish momentum.
Following the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, markets were initially hopeful that a significant trade breakthrough would ease tensions between the U.S. and China. Investors expected that China might resume exports of rare minerals and critical raw materials, which are essential for semiconductor production.
While China has indeed decided to extend the export suspension of certain materials—particularly gallium and antimony—until 2026, the uncertainty beyond that timeframe has created further anxiety in global markets. This uncertainty, combined with expectations of slower global economic growth into 2026, is strengthening demand for gold as a long-term hedge.
In addition, major central banks such as China, Russia, and Turkey have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. This accumulation provides additional support for gold prices, as these institutions are likely to continue buying on dips to diversify away from dollar exposure. Fundamentally, the overall outlook remains strongly bullish for gold.
From October 20 to October 28, gold experienced a short-term pullback. Despite that correction, price action consistently respected the key support zone near $3,990–$4,000, never forming a stable close below it. The market repeatedly failed to break below that base, showing buyers’ strength.
On the upside, the immediate resistance zone around $4,030–$4,050 had held firm for several sessions. However, during today’s early trading session, gold successfully broke above this resistance, establishing stability above the breakout level.
Currently, the next short-term target lies near the $4,130–$4,150 range. If the daily candle closes bullishly, even a minor correction could be followed by another leg upward toward that zone.
Given that $4,150 represents a strong resistance area, a brief pullback is possible once price reaches it. But if gold can sustain a stable close above $4,150, the next psychological target would be around $4,200–$4,230, with a potential final upside target near $4,280–$4,300.
Support & Risk Levels
Immediate Support: $4,050
Next Strong Support: $3,970 – $4,000
Major Support (Invalidation Zone): $3,880 – $3,900
As long as gold holds above the $3,880–$3,900 range, a major downtrend remains unlikely. Buyers continue to defend lower levels aggressively, and momentum remains positive both fundamentally and technically.
Gold remains underpinned by a mix of fundamental optimism (potential Fed rate cuts, central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty) and technical strength above its breakout levels. A sustained move above $4,150 could open the path toward $4,300, while a break below $3,970 might trigger a temporary correction.
Render , black FridayGetting a chance to buy Render in -80% is truly a gift . With all the hype around AI and all the good news coming from Render it’ll blow when time comes , right now climbing in a long term channel hitting the floor and indications of massive move ahead , I’m in and waiting.
Remember , DYOR .
USD/JPY Consolidating Below Resistance Near 155USD/JPY is starting the week on slightly stronger footing in the wake of the news that a tentative deal had been reached in the U.S. Senate to end the longest government shutdown in history. While the U.S. Dollar has firmed versus most of its counterparts, the downdraft in U.S. Treasury yields over the morning session on Monday has allowed the Japanese Yen to recoup some losses. On the Yen side, Japanese government bond (JGB) 10-year yield reached its highest level since June 2008 as fiscal concerns mount across the Pacific.
In the above chart, USD/JPY rates have struggled to breach the February 2025 swing high near 155, having paused below said resistance since late-October. That said, momentum remains to the upside, with USD/JPY well-supported by uptrends in both the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day EMA. A breach of 155 would suggest continuation to the upside back to the 2025 highs would be in focus; a drop below the 20-day EMA would initially expose the late-October swing low below 152.
SPY: The Rebound to All-Time Highs is Just Getting StartedSPY has been respecting this rising channel for months now.
Each dip to the lower trendline has been a solid buying opportunity, and the latest pullback looks no different. The recent breakdown scared some traders out, but the quick recovery and reclaim of structure show strong underlying demand.
We’ve seen two major touches at the lower boundary of the channel (highlighted in blue), both followed by strong recoveries. This latest retest is setting up the same way — except this time, the catalyst is even more powerful.
With the government shutdown ending, liquidity is flowing back into the markets.
Federal spending restarts, delayed projects resume, and that injection of capital tends to ripple through equities. Historically, when the government reopens after a shutdown, SPY sees a notable uptick in volume and sentiment.
That incoming money flow, combined with institutional repositioning into year-end, sets the stage for a strong Q4 rally. Momentum traders will start chasing once SPY reclaims key resistance levels, and fund managers will likely push to close the year strong.
Support Zone: Around 670–675 (bottom of the channel)
Resistance Levels: 700 short-term, 715–720 as the upper bound of the channel
Pattern: Bullish continuation within a rising parallel channel
Volume: No panic-selling signs, just rotation and consolidation
The short-term consolidation you see on the chart is typical after a brief correction inside an established uptrend. The smaller arrow shows a possible short pullback before the real breakout happens. Once price clears the descending mini-trendline (shown cutting across the recent highs), we’re likely to see momentum build fast.
My thesis is simple. SPY is heading back to all-time highs in November, and I expect we finish the year at or near record levels. The technicals and the macro backdrop are lining up perfectly.
If this channel holds, the upside target points toward the 710–720 range in the near term, potentially extending into 730+ before year-end if the market accelerates.






















