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Fundamental Analysis

1 trillion dollar pay package to elon muskTesla shareholders agreed to pay Elon Musk a package of 1 trillion dollars, and that's 12% of total gains if he reached his promised goal to shareholders of making Tesla the most valuable company in the world, and it stays that way for 5 years. If Musk delivers, the stock price should jump to 1000 dollars price per share in 5 years. PS: If Musk misses the target but a few thousand dollars, he gets nothing. Hence, the current most valuable company is now Nvidia with a 5 billion dollar evaluation, and Tesla is currently worth 1.35 trillion.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IAMUSSEF
5
Block (XYZ): Weak Earnings, Bitcoin Exposure, and the Next Move📊 Fundamental Overview I entered Block (XYZ) about a year ago when the company’s cash flow trends were very strong. However, right now the picture is becoming more concerning. EPS growth is not stable. Previously, EPS was growing rapidly (65%, 38%, 155%), but the last two quarters showed only –10% and +13% growth. Revenue growth stagnated. Year-over-year revenue used to grow strongly — 2019: $4M → 2020: $9M → 2021: $17M → 2023: $21M → 2024: $24M — but is now roughly flat (~+1% YoY). Forward P/E: ~22.7 — not particularly attractive considering the company’s decelerating fundamentals. Share dilution stopped. Since 2022, Block has halted share issuance, and total shares outstanding remain stable within ±2%, which is a positive signal compared to other fintech peers. 💥 Q3 Earnings Miss In the latest earnings report: Expected EPS: $0.63 → Actual: $0.54 Revenue: $6.11 B (below expectations) The miss triggered a 15–18% drop after earnings, followed by a partial rebound as dip buyers stepped in. But fundamentally, the company is clearly losing growth momentum. ₿ Bitcoin Exposure Risk Block currently holds about 8,700 BTC (~$1 billion) on its balance sheet. While this gives long-term upside potential, it also adds massive volatility risk. If Bitcoin enters a –70% correction (which I expect in the next 3–4 months), that could hit Block’s balance sheet hard and accelerate the drawdown. 📈 Technical Structure Technically, the stock has already corrected about –86% from its all-time high. We’re currently sitting inside a major accumulation cluster between $50–80 — a very strong volume node. If this cluster breaks down, the next major support zone is $8–15, which would imply a potential –90%+ drawdown, typically a “pre-bankruptcy” level of decline. After the latest earnings report, XYZ dropped by nearly 18%, forming a noticeable gap down. However, the volume on this sell-off was relatively low compared to the massive volume spikes seen in July 2025. Typically, such sharp post-earnings drops come with high capitulation volume, signaling panic selling and potential bottom formation, but this time, that confirmation is missing. This raises the risk that the current decline might not yet be over, and that smart money may still be waiting lower, around the next demand zone. From a wave-structure perspective, it looks like wave 1 is complete, followed by a sharp corrective move that has already exceeded the typical 38–62% retracement range, falling by about 86%, an unusually deep correction, but not impossible within a prolonged cycle. The ongoing consolidation phase has lasted significantly longer than previous ones, which increases the probability of a final downward push, forming a classic zigzag pattern (A–B–C), a drop, consolidation, and one more leg down to complete seller capitulation. Volume patterns in such structures usually peak in the middle of the formation, aligning with current price behavior. Technically, both outcomes remain open, we could see a short-term bounce from this zone or a double zigzag (dZ) structure unfolding lower before the true bottom forms. Upside momentum currently lacks fuel, fundamentals don’t support a strong rally yet. If price breaks above $100, the next upside target sits around $280, offering roughly 4× potential from current levels. So the setup remains binary, either accumulation continues before reversal, or we break down further in sync with BTC weakness. ⚠️ Risk View Fundamental growth has stalled. Earnings miss raises red flags. Bitcoin exposure magnifies downside risk. If price breaks below $32–30, that would confirm a breakdown, potential free-fall to $8–15. On the positive side, the company stopped share dilution, maintains good liquidity, and still has strong brand power in fintech. 🧩 My Position I currently hold a protected position (protective puts) till march 2026, limited downside, but I’m considering a full exit. There’s no visible fuel for strong upside, and with BTC risk rising, the short-term picture remains shaky. If we see capitulation into the $30–40 range with BTC bottoming, that could be a smart-money accumulation zone again. 🔑 Key Levels $100 → breakout confirmation, opens path to $280 $50–80 → main accumulation cluster $32–30 → invalidation / stop-loss zone $8–15 → next major demand zone if breakdown continues 🧭 Summary Block’s fundamentals are slowing, its Bitcoin exposure is a double-edged sword, and technically we’re at a critical level. If BTC corrects sharply, Block could retest the $30–40 area or even lower, but if it holds and reverses above $100, the next bull wave could be massive. At this stage, risk management and patience are key.
NYSE:XYZ
by sdk-trading
EURUSD H4 | Institutional & Fundamental Order Flow InsightsAfter completing a weekly bearish swing and gathering liquidity, EURUSD is now tapping into a monthly bullish zone. Currently, the market appears to be in a reaccumulation phase, preparing for a potential shift in directional bias. I’m closely watching for fundamental catalysts (upcoming macroeconomic data or central bank remarks) that could confirm a bullish continuation. If confirmed, the expectation is for EURUSD to aim toward the higher monthly targets, aligning with the broader bullish market structure. 📊 Bias: Bullish (pending fundamental confirmation) 🕓 Timeframe: H4 🏦 Focus: Institutional order flow & liquidity zones #EURUSD #Forex #OrderFlow #Liquidity #SmartMoneyConcepts #FundamentalAnalysis #MarketStructure #IOF #Madagascartrader #Dubaibased
Long
by RRH261
EURUSD H4 | Institutional & Fundamental Order Flow InsightsAfter completing a weekly bearish swing and gathering liquidity, EURUSD is now tapping into a monthly bullish zone. Currently, the market appears to be in a reaccumulation phase, preparing for a potential shift in directional bias. I’m closely watching for fundamental catalysts (upcoming macroeconomic data or central bank remarks) that could confirm a bullish continuation. If confirmed, the expectation is for EURUSD to aim toward the higher monthly targets, aligning with the broader bullish market structure. 📊 Bias: Bullish (pending fundamental confirmation) 🕓 Timeframe: H4 🏦 Focus: Institutional order flow & liquidity zones #EURUSD #Forex #OrderFlow #Liquidity #SmartMoneyConcepts #FundamentalAnalysis #MarketStructure #IOF
Long
by RRH261
25 NFT's not sold 1 NFT in 3 years at floor price - EntrepotI've bought more then 25 NFT's at Dfinity's Entrepot app 3 years ago and listed them 0.10 above the price I've bought them. After two years I didn't sold anything, forcing me to list them just at floor price even under the price I've bought them. Again 1 year later, not sold 1 single NFT. Conculsion = No one is using their stuff, it's like a desert with not a single soul to be found. Explain me, how can their market gain value without real use case and no single person using there stuff? After 3 years I've decided to mention this for everyone considering buying there NFT's... Many question arise if it comes down to this Dfinity project, doing this since 2015 and this is what I think about it = Worrying.
CRYPTO:ICPUSDShort
by aMilliondollarBitcoin
2
Royal Caribbean approaching rough seas?The consensus view strongly indicates that Royal Caribbean presents an unfavorable risk-reward profile at current valuation levels. Despite impressive operational recovery metrics including 69.5% net income growth and 73.4% diluted EPS growth in FY2024, the stock's valuation appears disconnected from underlying fundamentals. The premium multiples (P/E 20.9x, EV/EBITDA 13.2x) are difficult to justify given the company's high financial leverage (debt-to-equity 2.75x) and negative working capital position of -$8.1 billion. Technical analysis reveals concerning momentum patterns, with the stock having recently experienced a sharp correction from severely overbought conditions. While some indicators now show oversold readings, this reflects deteriorating investor sentiment rather than a buying opportunity. The cyclical nature of the cruise industry, combined with high capital intensity and ongoing financial stress, creates substantial downside risk that current valuations fail to adequately price. While the company's post pandemic recovery trajectory is commendable, the market appears to have overextended its optimism. The combination of stretched valuation metrics, high leverage, and technical deterioration suggests limited upside potential with significant correction risk. Investors should consider reducing exposure or waiting for more attractive entry points that better reflect the company's fundamental risk profile. All things considered, short term recovery is possible, but long term views remain bearish for the time being.
NYSE:RCLShort
by bitdoctor
NZD/USD – Fake Breakout at Resistance, Bearish Move ExpectedPrice attempted to break above the resistance zone (0.5630 area) but quickly reversed, forming a fake breakout. This indicates a potential bull trap, suggesting that sellers are regaining control. A short-term bearish move is expected as price rejects the resistance zone. The next target is around the support zone near 0.5610, where price may look for a potential rebound or continuation depending on market momentum. Bias: Bearish Entry Zone: 0.5628–0.5632 (after confirmation) Target: 0.5610 Invalidation: Break and close above 0.5635
Short
by Hamza_Gold
Opendoor Tech Inc.($OPEN) Drops as Q3 Revenue Beat EstimatesOpendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:OPEN ) delivered a mixed set of Q3 2025 results as the company transitions from a pure iBuying model toward an AI-driven operating structure under new CEO Kaz Nejatian. Revenue came in at $915 million, down 33.6% year-over-year but ahead of estimates at $851.7 million. The topline resilience was offset by weaker profitability as adjusted losses widened to $0.08 per share, missing consensus by one cent. The decline reflected lower resale volumes (2,568 homes sold vs. 3,615 last year) and a soft U.S. housing market, pressured by elevated mortgage rates and inventory reductions. Despite short-term headwinds, Opendoor’s management reiterated its goal of achieving sustained profitability by late 2026, with an expanded focus on AI-led pricing tools, digital onboarding, and operational automation. The company expects its new tech-centric model to enhance efficiency, reduce carrying costs, and restore gross margins over the next 12–18 months. Shares of Opendoor fell nearly 15% post-earnings, reflecting investor caution amid the company’s ongoing structural transformation. Technically, NASDAQ:OPEN trades near $6.56, correcting sharply from recent highs around $10. The weekly chart shows strong historical support around $5, the same zone that preceded its last breakout. Holding this area could set up a mid-term reversal pattern, potentially paving the way for a rebound toward the $11–$12 range if volume strengthens and broader housing sentiment stabilizes. Volume analysis shows accumulation spikes near the $6 level, hinting at early dip-buying interest from value-focused investors. A close below $5, however, could invalidate the bullish setup and reopen risk toward $3.
NASDAQ:OPENLong
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin Analysis: Daily and 4H [November 8,2025]Fundamental: BTC has been on a downtrend following Trump’s tweet on 10/10/2025, which triggered a massive sell-off. A relief followed after another tweet, aligning with the Daily Order Block (22/06/2025) — now mitigated twice and currently holding price action. Technical: Price hasn’t closed below the mean threshold of the daily OB, showing strength. On the 4H, BTC is forming a wedge pattern, indicating liquidity buildup. Anticipation: A daily liquidity sweep → watch for a 30m CHoCH to go long. A daily close below the OB → signals further downside. On 4H, wait for a sweep of either side of the wedge.  • If price hits internal supply first → confirm before shorting.  • A break & close above supply → signals bullish continuation. Note: Keep an open-eye on Trump's tweet regarding the US-China Trades as this can influence the set-up.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by SOL_FX
ISRG - Institutional Conviction Meets Relative Strength#ISRG -the "A" grade stock i'm watching for 15 years... While the Nasdaq puked 1.9% yesterday and AI stocks shed $500B in value, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) quietly held the after earnings gap and is eyeing new highs. This is what institutional buying looks like when conviction meets opportunity. The Setup: Crushed Q3 earnings Oct 21: $2.40 EPS vs $1.99 est (20% beat) Revenue: $2.51B vs $2.41B expected Gapped up and HELD for two weeks 83.64% institutional ownership - the smart money is loaded Yesterday's Action: Market environment: Tech bloodbath, fear everywhere ISRG response: Breakout to $548 This is textbook relative strength. When a stock refuses to go down with its sector and instead breaks out, institutions are telling you something. The Fundamental Story: 20% global procedure growth (da Vinci robots) da Vinci 5 adoption accelerating beyond expectations 100,000+ procedures completed on new platform No real competition in robotic surgery!! The Trade I 'Missed': I was busy. Away from the desk. Classic. The best setups always happen when you're not watching. But that's exactly what makes this worth sharing - if you're looking at healthcare/medtech and wondering what has real institutional support, this is your answer. Current Price: $560 ATH: $616 (Jan 2025) When institutions own 83.64% of a stock and it breaks out during a sector-wide selloff, they're not done buying. They're just getting started. Not financial advice. Just what I'm watching, now getting in will be tricky, but this one is surely worth the watch. What are you seeing in medtech/robotics? Drop your tickers below. #ISRG #IntuitiveSurgical #MedTech #HealthcareStocks #RoboticSurgery #RelativeStrength #InstitutionalBuying #StockBreakout #TradingView #StockMarket #Medtech #DaVinci #HealthTech #MarketAnalysis #StockTrading
NASDAQ:ISRGLong
by onlytrade2win
DOGE → The hunt for liquidity before the fallBINANCE:DOGEUSDT rose sharply on Friday. The reason is local news related to ETFs and Musk's tweet (it still works :) ). The growth potential may quickly exhaust itself... The altcoin is strengthening, breaking resistance and consolidating between two important levels - 0.1763 and 0.188. The trend is bearish, the market is generally weak. I do not yet see any technical or fundamental potential for strong growth or a trend reversal. In the current situation, DOGE may test the resistance zone of 0.188 due to the liquidity pool formed as part of local consolidation in early November. However, this liquidity pool may become a resistance to growth, which in turn may provoke a reversal and a fall. Resistance levels: 0.188 Support levels: 0.1763 However, if the market does not allow the price to rise, it is worth watching the support level of 0.17635. Consolidation below this level will confirm the false breakout of the lower level and may trigger a decline. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
10
Amazon.com, Inc. ($AMZN) Expands Low-Cost Bazaar ServiceAmazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: NASDAQ:AMZN ) is making a bold move into the global low-cost e-commerce space. The retail giant announced the expansion of its Amazon Bazaar service — known as “Haul” in the U.S. — to 14 new international markets, intensifying competition with Shein and PDD Holdings’ Temu. The service targets value-driven shoppers by offering ultra-cheap goods like $10 dresses, $5 accessories, and $2 home items, with a focus on emerging markets such as Nigeria, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. The expansion builds on Bazaar’s earlier success in Mexico and the UAE, signaling Amazon’s strategy to tap into the fast-growing global demand for low-cost online retail amid weaker consumer sentiment. This move comes as U.S. import tariffs under the Trump administration pressure household budgets, particularly for low-income groups. By diversifying into affordable goods, Amazon aims to defend its e-commerce dominance against Chinese platforms that have captured younger, price-sensitive consumers through viral marketing and social commerce. Analysts note that this pivot could enhance Amazon’s total addressable market and bolster revenue from international operations in 2026. Technically, Amazon’s stock remains in a strong uptrend, trading near $244.41, slightly below its recent high of $258.60 market this week. The weekly chart shows consistent higher lows supported by a long-term ascending trendline from early 2023. The $220–$225 zone now serves as key support, with potential for a short-term pullback before resuming the rally toward the $300 level. Momentum remains positive, with volume strength confirming investor interest following strong Q3 earnings. A sustained move above $260 could trigger a fresh bullish leg, extending Amazon’s dominant run as both a tech and retail powerhouse.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by DEXWireNews
Higher timeframe outlook for DXY : 8 November 2025Monthly timeframe Bias : Bullish Analysis: Price has formed a low in September 2025, creating a dealing range with the dealing range high forming in January of 2025. This has set a the dollar index in a relative discount condition warranting a bullish bias. Please do note this bullish bias is mainly enforced by lower timeframes which will be addressed below. The current bullish draw on liquidity on this timeframe is the monthly bearish fair value gaps at 103.197 to 101.977. Weekly timeframe Bias : Bullish Analysis: Price has displaced above 99.563 and has closed above the high leaving a bullish weekly fair value gap. This is a key indication that price wants to tread higher and is driving the monthly narrative. It is expected that price to retrace into this bullish weekly fair value gap within the next 1-2 weeks before heading higher towards the monthly draw on liquidity. 4 hourly timeframe Bias : Initial bearish with an expectation of bullish reversal to the upside. Analysis: This week has seen the dollar index displace below 99.671, leaving a bearish 4H fair value gap. This is an indication that price is still looking to tread lower into further discount before a reversal upside. Note the 4H bearish order block aligning with the monthly opening price for November 2025. This adds confluence that price would reach for this bearish 4H order block and lower taking out the low of 99.398 heading into the bullish weekly fair value gap. As mentioned in the 4hourly bias, there is an expectation of bullish reversal. This is where the 4hour timeframe starts to align with the weekly and monthly timeframe. It is expected that this bullish reversal will occur after price heads into the bullish 4H fair value gap at 99.225. A bullish reversal would be confirmed once there is a bullish market structure shift confirmed with a bullish 4h fair value gap, a bullish 4H balanced price range, or an intermediate term low forming after price reacts off the 4H buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency. Side note s - Should this analysis not pan out the next point of interest would be the bullish rejection block and propulsion block on the 4H chart. Should these not hold, the bias may turn bearish. - This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. The financial markets carry significant financial risk. - For ease of readability, please turn off all indicators in my chart. This can be done by using the Ctrl+Alt+H function. Should you see multiple charts you can view one chart at a time by clicking on the one chart while holding down the Alt button.
TVC:DXYLong
by Th3L1qu1d1ty
NZD/USD: A Trap for Early Buyers? Retail 90% Long1️⃣ Technical Context NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation. The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower. Key Levels Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply) Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom) Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains. 2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report) NZD Futures (CME): Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure. Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD. USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength. → Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend. 3️⃣ Seasonality Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years). 20 years: -0.001 10 years: -0.003 5 years: +0.004 2 years: +0.005 → Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Long: 90% Short: 10% Average long price: 0.5766 → The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56). 5️⃣ Trading Outlook Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential. Main Scenario: → Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500. Alternative Scenario: → A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950. Confluences: ✅ RSI bullish divergence ✅ Short-term positive seasonality ⚠️ Retail extremely long ⚠️ COT bearish for NZD
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 2031️⃣ Technical Context On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet. The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply) Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level) Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup. 2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown) Latest available report: JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen. GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment. → Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY. 3️⃣ Seasonality November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon. 20-year avg: -0.69% 10-year avg: -1.31% Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Short: 64% Long: 36% Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201. → This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes. ✅ COT favors JPY strength ✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY ✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs ⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD — The Trap Above 1.32 Before the Real Drop BeginsGBP/USD continues its bearish momentum after rejecting the major supply zone around 1.3450–1.3600. From a structural perspective, price has formed a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish continuation setup. 📉 Macro Context: COT data (delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown) still shows a fragile Pound: non-commercial traders are almost balanced but with a slight reduction in shorts, while commercials remain heavily short. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index COT reveals a growing long positioning — a clear sign of renewed USD strength. Sentiment: 82% of retail traders are long on GBP/USD → a strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: November is historically weak for GBP/USD, showing a negative tendency in 10- and 15-year averages. 🔎 Technical Setup: After a failed attempt to reclaim the 1.33–1.34 range, the pair dropped aggressively. A short retracement toward 1.3150–1.3200 could serve as a liquidity grab before further downside continuation. As long as price remains below 1.3270, the bearish bias remains intact. 🎯 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3150 – 1.3200 Support: 1.3000, 1.2850, then 1.2750 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3270 🧩 Bias: Bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
Gold pauses below resistance — correction before next leg higherGold’s recent rally above 4,300 USD per ounce has stalled as U.S. yields remain elevated and the dollar sustains moderate strength. The slowdown in Core PCE (2.6%) and Q3 GDP (2.2%) revived expectations for a Fed rate cut in early 2026, yet Powell’s message of caution kept the greenback supported. Meanwhile, real rates remain positive, limiting gold’s upside momentum in the short term. On the geopolitical front, safe-haven flows have softened after last week’s easing in Middle East tensions, prompting some profit-taking from speculative longs. However, persistent macro uncertainty and expectations of a gradual Fed pivot maintain gold’s medium-term bullish foundation. COT (Commitment of Traders) The COT reports remain frozen due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The latest available data (Sept 23) showed: • Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) • Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) This reflected an accumulation phase with a moderate increase in both sides, but a clear net-long bias from institutional players. ⚠️ Since the data is outdated by over a month, institutional positioning may have shifted following the recent volatility — interpret with caution. Retail Sentiment 📊 58% long / 42% short → contrarian bearish bias Retail traders remain moderately long on gold, suggesting room for a short-term pullback before any renewed institutional accumulation phase. Seasonality Historically, November tends to show a slightly negative seasonal bias for gold: •Average change: between –0.4% and –7.5% depending on sample length. •The pattern often shows a mid-month dip followed by strength into December. 📆 Seasonal view: short-term correction likely in early November before a year-end rally resumes. Technical Outlook After a sharp rally in October, XAU/USD has entered a consolidation/distribution phase just below the 4,250–4,300 resistance area. Scenario principale: A short-term continuation lower toward 3,950–3,900 remains likely as price retests the daily demand zone. From there, buyers could re-enter in line with the seasonal recovery expected later in November. Invalidation: Daily close below 3,850 would invalidate the bullish medium-term structure. Trading Bias •Short-term: Bearish → correction toward 3,950–3,900 •Medium-term: Neutral → awaiting confirmation of support reaction •Long-term: Bullish → supported by macro uncertainty and dovish Fed outlook into 2026 ✅ Final View: Gold is likely to correct further toward 3,950–3,900 before resuming its broader uptrend into December. Momentum is cooling, but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact as Fed easing expectations build.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1