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Fundamental Analysis

JPMorgan( $JPM) Gains on New Paid Fintech Data DealsJPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has reached a series of landmark agreements requiring fintech companies to pay for access to customer bank-account data, marking a major shift in how financial data is shared across the U.S. banking ecosystem. For years, data aggregators such as Plaid, Yodlee, Morningstar, and Akoya accessed JPMorgan customer data for free, enabling popular fintech apps to offer budgeting tools, payments, and portfolio tracking. Banks have long argued this model was unfair and risky, raising concerns over data privacy, security, and uncompensated use of bank infrastructure. JPMorgan spokesperson Drew Pusateri confirmed the new paid arrangements, calling them a step toward a safer and more sustainable open-banking framework. The deals were finalized after weeks of negotiation, with JPMorgan reportedly settling for lower fees than initially proposed. In return, aggregators secured concessions on how data requests are processed and stored. These agreements come as the CFPB’s updated “open banking” rule continues to reshape the data-sharing landscape. Introduced last year, the rule allows consumers to move financial data freely at no cost, sparking pushback from banks but support from fintechs and crypto-adjacent firms. After industry pressure, regulators began revising the rule earlier this year. For JPMorgan, the new paid model could generate a fresh revenue stream while tightening oversight on third-party data access. It also positions the bank strategically as demand grows for secure data connectivity across fintech platforms. Technical Outlook: JPM Eyes Bounce Toward $350 JPM has pulled back from recent highs and is now approaching a major support zone around $280, which previously acted as a breakout level. If the stock retests this area and holds, the structure favors a strong upside continuation. A rebound from support could send JPM back toward $330 and $350, aligning with the stock external bullish trend.
NYSE:JPMLong
by DEXWireNews
Ares - Long Strong Uptrend Structure Even after the recent pullback, ARES is still maintaining a higher-lows structure, which is a sign that buyers are defending the price. The stock bounced from a demand zone and is now pushing upward again — a sign of renewed momentum. Volume Profile Support A large amount of volume has traded around the $150–154 zone, which creates what's called a high-volume node. This acts as a support area because many investors established positions there — buyers defend these levels. Fundamentals Ares is one of the largest global private equity and asset management firms, benefiting from: Higher interest rates → increased demand for alternative financing. Strong asset inflows → recurring management fees (stable revenue). Asset managers historically perform well in bullish market cycles. ARES shows: Uptrend structure Volume support at current price Potential breakout setup Good risk/reward setup, especially if price holds above $152.
NYSE:ARESLong
by PacoW
Perellla - Short 1. Price Rejected from Key Resistance Zone The highlighted orange zone around $19.20 – $20.00 has rejected price over and over again. This is a strong supply zone where sellers consistently take control. Price failed again to break above it → bearish signal. 2. Below the 50-Day Moving Average Price is trading under the 50 SMA (blue line). The 50 SMA is sloping downward, confirming downtrend structure. Every touch of the 50 SMA has resulted in sell-offs → clear resistance. 3. Lower Highs + Weak Bounces The recent bounce couldn’t break above previous highs. This creates a series of lower highs, a classic sign of continuation to the downside. 4. Bearish Break & Retest Pattern Price broke below support around $19.00, then came back to retest it from below. Retest failed → now turning down again. This is one of the strongest short patterns. 5. Volume Weakness on the Upside Recent green candles show weak volume, while selling candles have stronger pressure. Bears are in control.
NASDAQ:PWPShort
by PacoW
Gold prices plummeted, but what exactly happened?Gold's technical outlook has shown clear signs of a reversal, compounded by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials that have reinforced bearish expectations. The bullish trend is struggling to hold, and prices rebounded quickly after touching the previous strong support level of 4030. We successfully captured this profit as expected, with the timing perfectly in line with our predictions. From a structural perspective, the short-term gold price movement is a technical correction after an oversold condition. This rebound is a normal technical correction and does not change the overall weak medium-term outlook. The market is likely to continue its downward trend through a period of consolidation. Strategically, the key short-term resistance level to watch is the 4090-4110 area. If the price rebounds but fails to break through this range, it will present a crucial opportunity to short. The overall strategy remains unchanged: focus on selling on rallies, and look for opportunities to short in the 4090-4110 area. Maintain a steady pace, follow the trend, and the market will naturally provide the necessary profit opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
XRPC: SIPC Safety Over Crypto RiskLaunch Date: November 13, 2025 Ticker Symbol:  XRPC Exchange:  NASDAQ What it is:  The first U.S. spot exchange-traded fund to offer direct exposure to XRP How it works:  The fund holds actual XRP tokens in custody with Gemini Trust Company and BitGo Trust Company, rather than using futures contracts. Purpose:  To give investors a simpler way to gain exposure to XRP without the complexities of self-custody or direct exchange management.  Many people ask if crypto has insurance —> it doesn’t. Banks and governments don’t cover it, so only SIPC and FDIC apply to traditional investments. That’s why wealthy people prefer assets protected by SIPC. Yesterday, a new stock called XRPC was released — it’s linked to Ripple crypto but traded as a stock, which means it’s covered by SIPC and can be held in a trust with insurance protection!!! I trade XRPC because it combines growth potential with SIPC-backed security. Unlike crypto, which is unregulated and risky, XRPC gives investors real protection and a stronger foundation. -Beau
NASDAQ:XRPCLong
by Beau2600
4
US500 Analysis: Tech Pullback & Rates UncertaintyThe US500 is undergoing a short-term correction driven by weakness in the Technology and AI sectors, coupled with renewed uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate path. While near-term momentum is bearish after a significant daily decline, the longer term uptrend remains intact, with defensive sectors showing relative resilience. The market is positioned for a consolidation phase pending clarity on monetary policy and tech earnings stability. Fundamental Analysis Key Driver: The dominant negative factor is the retreat in the Technology and AI-linked sectors, which previously drove the index to record highs. Disappointing earnings and profit-taking in stocks like Tesla (-4%) and Palantir (-4%) fueled the slide. Macro Headwinds: Investor sentiment is pressured by two main macro themes: Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for a December rate cut are fading due to mixed economic signals, dampening risk appetite and increasing the appeal of safer assets like Treasury bonds (higher yields). "AI Bubble" Fears: Market participants are becoming concerned that valuations in the AI/Tech space may be stretched, leading to a rotation out of high growth names and into defensive and value sectors. Long-Term Context: Despite the recent 1.5% drop, the US500 is still up 1.6% over the last month and a significant 13.5% year-over-year, indicating that the foundational, broader market strength is holding up. Technical Analysis Price Action: The index is trading below 6,700, confirming a break below the immediate support level of 6,700. This follows the worst single day performance in over a month. Short-Term Momentum: Bearish. Selling pressure is evident, particularly in the highly-weighted tech components. Key Levels: Immediate Resistance: 6,885. A move back above this zone is needed to alleviate immediate bearish pressure. Key Support: 6,600 – 6,550. This area represents the critical defense line; a break below here could trigger broader, accelerated selling. Sentiment Analysis Current Mood: The prevailing sentiment is cautious to defensive. Market Positioning: Traders are actively hedging for potential further downside, evidenced by options flows and fund positioning. This suggests investors acknowledge the risks but are not in a state of panic. Outlook The base case is for the US500 to enter a period of consolidation within the range of 6,550 to 6,800 into year end. Upside Potential: Buying interest is expected to return on further pullbacks, especially if the upcoming economic data is strong enough to support corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve pivots back to a more dovish stance. Key Risk: Continued uncertainty regarding the Fed's rate decision and further significant earnings disappointments from the Technology sector remain the primary threats to the consolidation thesis. Outlook Interpretation: The current slide is largely viewed as a necessary valuation reset or healthy correction in the high flying tech sector, rather than the start of a full-blown market crash. Recovery potential is seen, but not without elevated volatility. Analysis is by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPX
by WiseLeoTrading
US100 Price Action Outlook Weak High Target&Liquidity SweepZonesThe chart highlights a weak high above current price action, suggesting potential upside liquidity targets. Below, key downside levels at 25,067 and 24,739 mark liquidity pools and possible retracement zones if price rejects current resistance. The structure shows a recent break of structure with both bullish and bearish scenarios in play. Price is reacting near a resistance area after a recent bounce. The weak high above suggests liquidity may be targeted before any reversal. If price rejects this zone, the next downside levels to watch are 25,067 and 24,739, where liquidity sits and buyers may step in. Structure remains mixed, with both upward liquidity grabs and potential pullbacks likely
TVC:NDQShort
by Mira_Clara
7
SPY 0DTE Oversold Reversal Play — AI Signals Hidden Bullish TRADE RECOMMENDATION — SPY 0DTE CALLS Direction: BUY CALLS Confidence: 60% Conviction: LOW 🧠 ANALYSIS SUMMARY Katy AI Signals Time-series prediction shows a bullish intraday path from $666.18 → $674.25 by midday. Expected end-of-day level: $669.43 (+0.6% from $665.64). AI target: $668.67, confirming upward bias despite the “neutral” summary label. Technical Analysis Trading –1.00% below VWAP ($672.38) in a weaker session (–1.10%). Extremely low volume (0.2× average) creates unreliable tape. RSI: 13.1 (deep oversold) → strong mean-reversion setup. Key levels: Resistance: $667.00 Support: $664.72 News Sentiment Market tone: Bearish, driven by: “Impaired” economic data post-shutdown Semiconductor weakness (AMAT) Trade/geopolitical uncertainty Risk-off environment, but oversold conditions can still produce sharp bounces. Options Flow PCR 4.16 → heavy put hedging / institutional defensiveness. Max Pain: $674.00 → aligns with AI’s upside magnet. Unusual put volume at $692 → downside hedging → possible short-covering fuel for upside pop. Risk Summary High. Signals conflict (AI bullish vs. tape bearish). Low volume = erratic movement. 0DTE time decay requires active management. 💰 TRADE SETUP (0DTE — 2025-11-14) Parameter Value Strategy Long Calls Strike $635.00 (deep ITM) Entry $37.20 – $37.40 Target 1 $46.63 (+25%) Target 2 $55.95 (+50%) Stop Loss $29.84 (–20%) Position Size 1% of portfolio Signal Time 08:19:16 EST Why Deep ITM? High delta → captures SPY’s expected $3–$9 intraday move while reducing extrinsic decay. ⚡ COMPETITIVE EDGE Katy AI’s granular time-series reveals institutional accumulation despite bearish headlines. RSI (13.1) gives a contrarian oversold bounce opportunity. Max-pain alignment + oversold RSI + AI targeting VWAP: → asymmetric upside with managed risk. Timing Advantage: Enter during oversold pressure while AI predicts immediate drive upward. Low volume → even modest buying can force exaggerated moves. Risk Mitigation: Tight 20% stop loss Exit before 13:00 ET Avoid afternoon fade (AI predicts pullback) 🚨 IMPORTANT NOTES Volume is 80% below average → expect choppy, unreliable tape. Low conviction setup — consider reducing size. If SPY fails to hold above $664.72, exit early. Institutional bearishness may limit upside to $670–$674.
AMEX:SPYLong
by quantsignals
Bullish Case for SMCI: Why the Next Big Move Could Be ExplosiveSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) remains one of the most powerful AI-infrastructure plays in the market, and the bullish setup going into the next quarter looks exceptional. 1. Next Quarter Revenue Forecast: $10B — Up 100% QoQ Analysts expect SMCI to report $10 billion in revenue next quarter — a 100% jump from the previous quarter. This kind of acceleration is extremely rare for a company of SMCI’s size. A triple-digit quarter-over-quarter growth rate signals: Surging demand for AI servers Rapid expansion of hyperscaler orders Strong execution in supply chain and delivery SMCI taking meaningful market share from Dell, HP, and legacy OEMs Wall Street absolutely rewards revenue hyper-growth like this. 2. AI Infrastructure Demand Is Exploding AI training and inference workloads are scaling at a pace never seen before. Every major AI company is racing to expand server capacity, and SMCI has positioned itself as: Faster than competitors Cheaper to deploy Highly customizable NVIDIA’s preferred partner for next-gen GPU systems As long as AI accelerators remain the hottest commodity in tech, SMCI remains at the center of that demand. 3. Margins Are Expanding With High-End Configurations High-performance racks built around H100, H200, B100, and next-gen NVIDIA/AMD GPUs carry much higher margins. More customers are upgrading to fully-integrated racks rather than low-tier components. This means earnings could beat expectations, not just revenue. 4. SMCI Is Becoming a Core AI Index Play Funds that want exposure to AI infrastructure don’t have many pure plays available. SMCI is now viewed as: A backbone of AI datacenters A beneficiary of every new GPU cycle A growth stock with real earnings, not hype This attracts institutional inflows during AI-sector rotations. 5. Technical Setup Supports a Bullish Breakout Although volatile, SMCI consistently builds higher lows over time. With a $10B revenue forecast ahead, sentiment could flip extremely fast. A strong earnings beat + raised guidance can trigger: A major gap-up Short covering Renewed momentum buying Bottom Line SMCI is entering one of the strongest growth phases in its history. With revenue expected to double next quarter, rapidly expanding AI demand, and improving margins, the setup is highly bullish. If the company delivers anything close to the $10B forecast — the stock could reprice sharply to the upside.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by SabahEquityResearch
Nvidia Is +115% Since April. Here's What Its Chart SaysNvidia NASDAQ:NVDA has gained some 115% since its April low and recently hit an all-time high. Let's see what the chip giant's chart and fundamental analysis can show us ahead of NVDA's fiscal Q3 earnings release next week. Nvidia's Fundamental Analysis Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this month traveled to Taiwan to attend the annual sports day held by integrated-circuits maker Taiwan Semiconductor NYSE:TSM , which he called NVDA's "forever partner." Although Nvidia has deals in place with firms like Intel NASDAQ:INTC , TSM is Nvidia's primary foundry when it comes to manufacturing high-end AI-capable GPUs. Huang said in public remarks that he asked TSM for additional chip supplies because "the business is very strong and it's growing month by month, stronger and stronger." I can't wait to see if next week's earnings release tells the same tale. Nvidia plans to roll out its latest results after the closing bell next Wednesday (Nov. 19). Wall Street's consensus view calls for the firm to report $1.25 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $54.8 billion in revenue. That would represent a 54.3% gain from $0.81 in adjusted EPS the same period last year, as well as better than 56% top-line growth from the $35.1 billion that NVDA saw a year earlier. While many investors would see that as incredible growth, Nvidia's sales have actually been decelerating from almost unheard-of levels in recent years due to the law of large numbers. However, a print like that would be in line with Nvidia's fiscal Q2 result released in August. Meanwhile, 32 of the 39 sell-side analysts that I know of who cover NVDA have revised their estimates higher since the quarter began, while six have reduced their forecasts. (One estimate has been left unrevised.) Nvidia's Technical Analysis Next, let's check out NVDA's year-to-date chart through Monday afternoon: Readers will see that NVDA this spring blasted out of a cup-with-handle pattern, as denoted by the green box and purple curving line at the chart's left. This is a bullish technical set-up. The shares then rallied in late summer in an ascending-triangle pattern, marked with a green box and black lines at the chart's right. That's normally a pattern of bullish continuance, which is exactly what Nvidia saw until the U.S. government shutdown impacted markets as October moved into November. That said, Nvidia managed to find support at its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line at $183.90 in the chart above). That's where investors would look for professionally managed money to potentially defend the stock. Conversely, the $212.19 intraday record high that NVDA set on Oct. 29 might serve as the stock's upside pivot. Looking at Nvidia's secondary technical indicators, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) appears to have found some support recently at the neutral line and began moving higher again. Meanwhile, Nvidia's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) isn't bullishly postured, at least not yet. However, the histogram of the stock's 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by blue bars) could be poised to move back into positive territory soon. And while Nvidia's 12-day EMA (the black line) recently moved below the 26-day EMA (the gold line), the black line seems to be curling upward and might soon re-cross over the gold one. The bulls would be rooting for that. An Options Option As I write this, the options market is pricing in a roughly $16 move in Nvidia (or 8%) in relation to next week's earnings. Option traders who expect Nvidia to rise in response to next week's earnings and who would rather use leverage than lay out to purchase the stock might employ a simple bull-call spread in this situation. This strategy involves purchasing one call while simultaneously selling a second call at with higher strike price, but the same expiration date. Here's an example: -- Long one NVDA $200 call with a Nov. 19 expiration date (i.e., after next week's earnings release). The cost is about $7.85 at recent prices. -- Short one Nov. 19 NVDA $215 call, generating a $2.85 premium. Net Debit: $5 The trader in this example is risking the $5 net debit, which would represent his or her maximum theoretical loss in the above spread. But if NVDA rises as the trader in this example expects and both options are exercised, the person would realize $15 of proceeds minus the $5 debit for $10 net profit (the maximum gain). (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long NVDA and INTC at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document (j.moomoo.com j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Supporting docs for any claims will be furnished upon request. Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved. Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by moomoo
Daily SPY (US500-ES-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (14 NOV)Daily SPY (US500-ES-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (14 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears neutral, in my opinion. The U.S. government is expected to reopen soon; however, officials have decided not to release previous economic data. This creates uncertainty for traders — without key data, it becomes difficult to anticipate the FED’s next policy decision. 📈 Technical Analysis QQQ ran the weekly swing low at the 687 level and was rejected there. SPY retested the 637 zone, which is the range low for me, and reacted perfectly with a strong bounce. At the moment, price is showing clear upward momentum, suggesting that a stronger move may develop into the afternoon session. NVDA and AAPL are currently leading the market higher. 📌 Game Plan Bullish Scenario: I bought calls and I’m targeting a minimum of 673.5. My second target is 681 for a runner. Once price reaches 673.5, I will move my stops to break-even. Bearish Scenario: If price gets rejected at the 671 level, I will exit my calls and switch to puts, targeting the 661 zone. 💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (14 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (14 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears neutral, in my opinion. The U.S. government is expected to reopen soon; however, officials have decided not to release previous economic data. This creates uncertainty for traders without key data, it becomes difficult to anticipate the FED’s next policy decisions. 📈 Technical Analysis QQQ tapped the weekly swing low at 687 and was rejected from that level. SPY retested the 637 zone, which is the range low for me, and reacted with a strong bounce. At the moment, price is showing clear upward momentum, suggesting that a stronger move may develop into the afternoon session. NVDA and AAPL are currently leading the market higher. 📌 Game Plan I bought calls around 601, and I expect to see 609.5 first, and if we get a strong continuation, possibly the 618 level. At 609.5, I will close half of my position, trail my stop-loss to breakeven, and target 618 for the remainder. 💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
UDMY turning profitable and in deep value territoryNASDAQ:UDMY stock has been left for dead. It's formed a massive falling wedge on the monthly chart and until late has done so with improving momentum. While not strictly aligned to disciplined charting techniques I view the recent meltdown in momentum as capitulation and a good time to start a small position. Looking at the annual and quarterly profit figures we can see the company has been bleeding cash for years, but in recent quarters is starting to make a small profit. It's a speculative buy, so keep the position sizing small, but I think there's room to double or even triple with sufficient time.
NASDAQ:UDMYLong
by quickshiftinn
What FICO Insiders Know That You Don't-134 Insider Sells, 0 BuysTL;DR: FICO is down 30% from its highs while the market is making all-time highs. Looks like a bargain, right? Wrong. Here's what Wall Street doesn't tell you: $1.3 billion negative equity, 134 insider sells (ZERO buys), regulatory pressure, and a monopoly under scrutiny. This isn't a dip to buy—it's a warning sign. Here's why- FICO: The "Perfect" Stock That's Anything But Current Price: ~$1,970 (down ~30% from ATH of ~$2,800)
Market Cap: ~$50 billion
P/E Ratio: ~106
Insider Activity: 0 buys, 134 sells
Shareholder Equity: Negative $1.3 billion Everyone sees a stock that's "on sale." I see a stock that's priced for perfection with a sword hanging over it. Here's why. 1. Negative Equity: The Balance Sheet Is Broken FICO has negative shareholder equity of -$1.3 billion. Let me translate: The company owes more than it owns! How is that possible for a company with a $50 billion market cap? Debt + Share Buybacks. FICO has been aggressively buying back its own stock—using borrowed money. They've loaded up on debt to prop up the stock price, and now the balance sheet is structurally impaired. Why This Matters: * If business slows down, they can't sell assets to cover debt—there are no assets. * If regulators crack down (more on that below), the stock could collapse—and there's no equity cushion to absorb the blow. * This is a high-risk, high-leverage situation masquerading as a "quality growth stock." 2. Insider Activity: 0 Buys, 134 Sells Let that sink in... 134 insider transactions. Every single one was a SELL !! The people running the company—the ones with the most information—are heading for the exits. Not one insider thought, "Hmm, our stock is down 30%, maybe I should buy some." That's a flashing red light. Why This Matters: Insiders sell for lots of reasons—taxes, diversification, college tuition. But when every single insider is selling and no one is buying? That's not diversification. That's a coordinated exit. They know something. And they're not sticking around to find out what happens next. 3. Regulatory Risk: The Monopoly Is Under Scrutiny FICO has a near-monopoly on credit scoring in the U.S. For decades, that's been their moat. But now? * The CFPB is investigating their pricing practices * Congress is asking questions about whether FICO's dominance hurts consumers * Alternative credit scoring models (like VantageScore) are gaining traction If regulators decide to break up FICO's monopoly—or force them to lower prices—the entire bull case collapses. Why This Matters: FICO's valuation is built on the assumption that they can keep raising prices forever because they have no competition. But what if that changes? What if the government says, "You can't charge $30 per score anymore. Now it's $10." Suddenly, revenue drops by 60%. And with a P/E of 106, the stock doesn't have room for error. 4. The Valuation Trap: Priced for Perfection P/E Ratio: 106 That means investors are paying $106 for every $1 of earnings. For context: * The S&P 500 average P/E is ~20-25 * A "growth stock" P/E might be 40-50 * FICO's P/E is 106 What This Means: The market is pricing FICO as if: * Revenue will keep growing at 15-20% annually (despite regulatory headwinds) * Margins will stay high (despite pricing pressure) * Nothing will go wrong (despite insiders selling) That's not investing. That's betting on a miracle. And if FICO misses earnings next week? Or if the CFPB announces new regulations? Watch out below. 5. The Technical Picture: Relative Weakness Here's what most retail investors miss: FICO is down 30% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are making all-time highs. That's called relative weakness. It means the "smart money" is rotating OUT of FICO and INTO stronger stocks. Why This Matters: When a stock underperforms during a bull market, it's not a "buying opportunity." It's a warning sign. If FICO can't rally when everything else is rallying, what happens when the market turns? It'll be the first one to get crushed. What Wall Street Won't Tell You Here's what the analysts say: "FICO is a high-quality monopoly with pricing power. The dip is a buying opportunity." Here's what I see: * Negative equity = balance sheet risk * 134 insider sells, 0 buys = management doesn't believe in the stock * Regulatory pressure = the monopoly is under attack * P/E of 106 = priced for perfection * Relative weakness = the market is telling you to stay away This isn't a dip to buy. It's a warning sign. The Trade (If You're a Trader) If I were still trading, here's what I'd do: Short FICO into every bounce. Why? * Earnings are next week—high risk of a miss * Relative weakness means the stock is structurally broken * Insiders are selling—they know something * Any negative news (regulatory, earnings, guidance) sends this lower Stop-loss: decide for yourself, I don't know your situation. 
Target: $600 (next structure level) The Investor Perspective If you're a long-term investor, ask yourself: 1. Do I want to own a company with negative equity? 2. Do I trust management when every insider is selling? 3. Am I comfortable with regulatory risk? 4. Can I afford to wait 5-10 years for this to "come back" if it crashes? If the answer to any of those is "no," then move on. There are better opportunities. There are safer bets. There are stocks that aren't priced for perfection with a regulatory sword hanging over them. The Lesson Most investors see FICO down 30% and think: "Wow, it's on sale!" I see a stock that's overvalued, overleveraged, and under investigation. And when insiders are selling by the truckload while retail is buying the dip? That's how fortunes are transferred from the impatient to the patient. Or, in this case, from the uninformed to the informed. What do you think? Are you buying the dip in FICO? Or staying away? Drop a comment below. Earnings are next week. Let's see what happens... #FICO #StockMarket #Investing #InsiderSelling #RegulatoryRisk #Trading #OnlyTrade2Win #BalanceSheet #MarketAnalysis #WallStreet
NYSE:FICOShort
by onlytrade2win
DXY Near Key Liquidity Pools — Which One Gets Taken First?NY Session Update The Dollar opens New York trading holding firm in mid-range, rotating around the 0.50 region near 98.828. The session begins with a steady structure, and flow remains shaped primarily by the broader macro tone rather than intraday volatility. The Dollar spent the week under steady pressure as investors reassessed U.S. growth momentum. Several datasets were delayed, and the backlog created uncertainty around how strong the underlying economy actually is. The tone from the Federal Reserve shifted subtly toward patience — less focus on tightening, more on maintaining optionality. At the same time, global risk appetite improved. Equities held firm, and capital rotated into other major currencies, reducing the Dollar’s safe-haven advantage. That combination — softer growth signals, stabilizing risk, and non-committal policy language — kept the Dollar pinned in mid-range structure. Looking ahead, the next meaningful movement will likely come from surprise prints rather than scheduled events. Employment data, inflation momentum, and backlog clears remain the pressure points. Until those catalysts hit, the Dollar stays in observation mode: stable, compressed, and sensitive to macro tone rather than intraday noise. NEXT WEEK’S U.S. DOLLAR DRIVERS Inflation releases – Headline and core CPI/PPI data will test momentum in pricing pressure. Employment & labour data – Wage momentum, participation and unemployment trends remain under the microscope. Policy tone from the Federal Reserve – Speeches and any shifts in guidance around timing will carry enhanced weight. Global risk-sentiment flow – Equity performance and risk-asset appetite at the NY open will continue to influence USD positioning. Data backlog clarity – Delayed prints and residual effects from previous disruptions may create surprises in either direction, affecting Dollar flow. CORE5 Pillar Overview MSM — Market Structure Mapping: Price remains inside weekly balance, with activity clustered around 98.776 — consistent with mid-range conditions. VFA — Volume Flow Analytics: The 4H anchored volume node at 98.725 continues to mark the area of most participation. OFD — Order Flow Dynamics: Recent activity shows hesitation to move deeper into the lower inefficiency zones. PEM — Precision Execution Modeling: Liquidity context remains defined by areas near 98.30 and 99.30, with the broader range limits at 97.672 and 99.985. This provides the wider map for understanding structural rotation. CORE5 Rule of the Day Mid-range moves feed ego, not equity. — — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
AEROUSDT 4H – EMA Deviation Long on Base Liquidity Engine1. Setup Aerodrome is still the main liquidity flywheel on Base and is now set to merge with Velodrome into a single AERO token that will also live on Ethereum and Circle’s ARC. After the post-news flush, price on Bybit perps sits around 0.84–0.85, below the 4H EMA band and inside my demand + deviation zone. I’m taking a 4H EMA Deviation long with a swing horizon of ~1–3 days. 2. Technical context (4H) The local trend topped near 1.10–1.12, where multiple higher-TF order blocks sit. From there we got a clean breakdown through the 4H EMA ribbon and a series of lower lows into the green demand cluster around 0.82–0.84. Current trade levels on the chart: Entry: 0.842 Stop: 0.758 (below demand and the last capitulation wick) Target: 1.014–1.02 (4H EMA re-test + prior consolidation / supply) That’s roughly +20.5% upside vs −10.3% downside, R:R ≈ 2:1. The 4H deviation sits above its average “stretched” reading, so the setup fits my mean-reversion rules rather than chasing trend. 3. Strategy statistics – 4H EMA Dev Long (AERO) Backtest on this pair / timeframe: 26 trades, long only. Winrate: 80.77% Avg PnL per trade: +8.24% Avg winner: +10.98% Avg loser: −3.28% → win/loss size ratio ≈ 3.34 Largest winner: +25.17%, largest loser: −5.67% Avg duration: 24 bars, winners around 21 bars, losers ~36 bars Historically, losers are shallow but drag out longer; if this bounce doesn’t materialise within a typical 20–24 bar window, I’d rather cut than sit through slow bleed. 4. Fundamentals & narrative Active positives right now: Merge with Velodrome into one protocol and token (“AERO”) launching on Ethereum + Circle’s ARC. Existing Aerodrome holders are set to receive 94.5% of the new supply – strong alignment for current AERO holders. Aerodrome controls ~53% of Base’s ~$4.7B DeFi TVL via ve(3,3) mechanics. About 45% of AERO is locked with an average remaining lock of 2.8 years, and protocols compete for veAERO via $2–4M weekly bribes, generating 35–45% APR from real fees, not emissions. Narrative kicker: deposit tokens from JPMorgan reportedly already operating on Base, with the chain framed as a “default banking L2”. If that flow scales, first-order liquidity beneficiaries are AERO, lending, and major DEX routes on Base. Expired but still relevant context: Programmatic buybacks via the Public Goods Fund – over 150M AERO acquired and 4y-locked across PGF, Flight School, Relay. Aerodrome crossed into deflation in September 2025, with cumulative $400M+ fees and a model where 100% of DEX revenue goes to veAERO lockers. Large strategic lockers include Coinbase and Animoca, strengthening the “institutional Base” story. Score: BBB+ / Positive, with key risks in narrative overextension (Base banking thesis needs confirmation), merge execution, and general market beta. 5. Trade plan & invalidation Idea: play a mean-reversion bounce from 4H demand + EMA deviation back into the 1.00+ supply zone, while the Base / merge narrative is still hot and fee flows stay strong. If price closes 4H below 0.758 and can’t quickly reclaim the EMA ribbon, I treat the setup as invalid and step aside – that would indicate a deeper reset of the whole move from 0.70. If we tag 1.00–1.02, I’ll realise most of the position there and only trail a small runner in case the merge and Base catalysts trigger a new leg to fresh highs. Not financial advice – just documenting a systematic EMA Deviation long on one of the key Base liquidity primitives.
Long
by Goldfinch_song