Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) has regained upward momentum, bouncing back above $4,200 after briefly pulling back from a three-week high. The metal remains within a broad bullish structure, supported by risk-off sentiment and a softer USD.
The Resistance Zone lies between $4,207–$4,214, which coincides with recent swing highs. The Support Zone is established around $4,166–$4,174, representing the demand base from earlier this week. A short-term pullback toward the support zone could offer a buy-on-dip opportunity, with price likely to retest the $4,210 resistance area if momentum holds.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy on retracement near support, targeting a retest of $4,210 resistance.
Entry: $4,167 – $4,174
Stop Loss: $4,166
Take Profit 1: $4,207
Take Profit 2: $4,214
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.88
If gold breaks below $4,165, the bullish bias would weaken, potentially opening room for deeper correction toward $4,150.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold climbed above $4,200 on Friday amid renewed risk aversion and a weaker U.S. Dollar, as markets digest ongoing fallout from the U.S. government shutdown and signs of slowing growth.
FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani noted that “Gold retakes $4,200 as USD weakens on economic concerns and a risk-off mood boosts demand.” 【FXStreet】
Economic Concerns: Investors remain worried that the prolonged U.S. government closure shaved 1.5–2.0% off quarterly GDP growth, reinforcing expectations of weaker economic activity ahead.
USD Under Pressure: The U.S. Dollar trades near a two-week low, as markets anticipate softer data once official reports resume.
Fed Rate-Cut Bets: While some Fed officials, including Susan Collins and Neel Kashkari, warned against hasty easing, the CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 50% chance of a 25bp rate cut in December, and 75% odds for January.
Data Delays: A senior White House official confirmed that key October data (employment and inflation) might not be released, adding uncertainty to policy projections.
Risk Sentiment: Weaker equities and global risk aversion continue to support gold as investors seek safety amid limited U.S. macro visibility.
Despite the reduced odds of an immediate December cut, the medium-term narrative remains gold-positive, with the Fed leaning toward eventual easing once data returns.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,207 – $4,214
Support: $4,167 – $4,174
Psychological Level: $4,200
📌 Trade Summary
Gold’s short-term structure favours buying dips toward $4,167–$4,174, supported by risk-off sentiment and a fragile U.S. Dollar. As long as price stays above $4,165, the bullish outlook remains valid with potential retest of the $4,207 area. However, uncertainty around delayed U.S. data may keep volatility elevated into next week.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
