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Teva: The flag’s ready — someone just needs to hit “launch”Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) is setting up for a potential continuation move after a clean impulse. On the daily chart, we have a textbook bull pennant — and not just any sloppy one. Price has broken above the 200-day moving average, and all key EMAs (50/100/200) now sit below price, confirming a solid bullish structure. Volume behavior fits the script: declining inside the pennant, signaling pressure is building. More importantly, the Volume Profile reveals a low-volume void above current levels — meaning there’s little resistance until we hit the $22+ zone. In other words, once this breaks, it could run fast. RSI is comfortably in bullish territory without being overheated, and the flagpole projection gives us clean upside targets: – Entry: breakout above pennant resistance – Target: $22.80 — full flagpole height – Support: $17.60 — confluence of 0.5 Fib + volume base TEVA isn’t asking for confirmation anymore — it’s showing it. All systems are technically armed. Now we just wait for the market to press the button.
NYSE:TEVALong
by TotoshkaTrades
Eli Lilly ($LLY) – Brief AnalysisNYSE:LLY The stock remains in a downward channel (resistance ~772–780 $, support ~720–709 $, key risk level — 680 $). Current price (~752 $) is around the middle of the channel (Fib 0.5). There’s pressure from the upper boundary. Entry points: 750–755 $ (aggressive, with retracement risk) Above 780 $ (confirmed breakout, targets 800–858 $) Around 720 $ (defensive entry on rebound) Targets: 800 → 858 → 900 $ Stop-loss: below 680 $. With positive GLP-1 news (Zepbound, Mounjaro, new projects), an upside breakout looks the most likely scenario.
NYSE:LLY
by ALVO13_official
NZDUSD November 2025 fundamental analysisNew Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. United States Dollar (USD): Cautious Strength Amid Economic Resilience Monetary Policy: Fed's Hawkish Pause in Easing Cycle The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the lowest since 2022. However, the tone accompanying this decision was notably cautious. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," effectively pushing back against market expectations that had priced in an 87.7% probability of another 25bps reduction in October and 62% odds for December.​ This hawkish messaging reflects the Fed's assessment of persistently elevated inflation, which has risen for five consecutive months and currently stands at 3.0% for both headline and core measures as of September. The central bank cited "increasing downside risks to employment" but noted that Powell explicitly stated he does not anticipate further deterioration in the labor market. The decision saw two dissenting votes—one favoring a 50bps cut and another preferring to hold rates steady—highlighting the divided nature of current Fed thinking.​ Economic Fundamentals: Resilience Defying Expectations The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of historically high tariffs (effective rate of 16-17%, highest since 1934) and a prolonged government shutdown exceeding five weeks. After contracting -0.6% in Q1 2025, GDP rebounded sharply to 3.8% in Q2, with Q3 tracking similarly strong at 3-4% according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. This growth is partly attributed to AI-related spending, which accounts for more than half of US growth this year.​ However, the government shutdown—affecting 1.4 million federal employees with roughly half furloughed and half working without pay—poses growing risks. A rule of thumb suggests every week of shutdown shaves 0.1% off GDP. The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, potentially supporting a cautious approach in November and December.​ November Outlook: Dollar Strength with Caveats For November 2025, the USD maintains a positive outlook supported by several factors. The relative economic resilience compared to other major economies, higher interest rate differentials (3.875% vs most G10 currencies), and ongoing safe-haven demand underpin dollar strength. However, this strength is tempered by the prolonged government shutdown, fiscal concerns, and the gradual Fed easing trajectory.​ The dollar's performance will likely hinge on three key developments: resolution of the government shutdown, clarity on the December Fed decision, and the Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Market positioning shows the Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 98, with technical resistance at 99.75 representing a key threshold for sustained strength. Verdict Given the expected RBNZ rate cut, weaker labor data in New Zealand, and a relatively stable to slightly strengthening US dollar supported by solid US economic growth and steady Fed policy, the fundamental outlook for NZD/USD in November 2025 leans bearish. This pair is more likely a SELL in November 2025, with downside risks outweighing upside potential.
Short
by Oneirotrade
DASH price analysis💥 Just eight years in a downtrend — that’s the story of #DASH 😅 Following CRYPTOCAP:ZEC , it looks like privacy coin fans are trying to “wake up” #DASHUSDT — and price action is finally showing signs of life 📈 📊 If buyers can hold above $90–100, it will signal a true breakout from the long-term trendline and a solid consolidation above it. That could open the door for a careful long entry, especially since we still have room for around x5 upside to reach the 2021 highs 💪 🤔 Do you believe #DASH can reclaim its former glory, or has its time already passed? ______________ ◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates! 🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves 🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
CRYPTO:DASHUSD
by P_S_trade
NZDJPY November 2025 fundamental analysisNew Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Japanese Yen (JPY): Political Dovishness Delays Normalization Bank of Japan: Divided Board, Delayed Tightening The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its October meeting, as widely expected, but the decision revealed significant internal division. The vote split 7-2, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata advocating for a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from the September meeting. Takata argued that "now is the appropriate time to raise interest rates," noting that inflation has remained above the bank's target for three and a half years, while Tamura called for moving toward neutral rates.​ Despite these hawkish voices, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious approach, emphasizing that the BoJ would continue with policy normalization "once its economic projections are met" but warning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. The central bank reiterated its inflation outlook, projecting core CPI at 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while raising 2025 growth forecasts slightly to 0.7%.​ Political Constraints: The Takaichi Factor The election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister in mid-October significantly altered the trajectory of BoJ policy expectations. Takaichi, known as a fiscal dove who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy, has complicated the path toward further tightening. Following her election, the yen depreciated more than 2% against the USD, and market expectations for an October rate hike evaporated.​ The new government's support for accommodative policy creates a political constraint on the BoJ's normalization efforts, even as some policymakers argue for immediate rate hikes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes to prevent excessive yen depreciation, adding external pressure to the central bank's considerations. Markets now assign only a 47% chance of a December rate hike, with consensus building around a delayed move to early 2026.​ November Outlook: Persistent Weakness Despite Normalization Promise The Japanese Yen carries a weak fundamental outlook for November, reflected in its trading near 154 per USD—nine-month lows and close to the 37-week low of 153.28. The currency has weakened more than 4% in October alone, making it one of the worst G10 performers. Despite some hawkish board members and the BoJ's stated intention to continue normalization, the dovish political environment and cautious central bank approach leave the yen vulnerable.​ The 3.25% interest rate differential with the USD remains a key driver supporting USD/JPY carry trades, though this spread is expected to compress toward 2.5% as the Fed continues cutting while the BoJ only gradually raises rates. While this compression could eventually support the yen, the timeline remains uncertain—potentially extending into 2026 rather than materializing in November. Technical analysis suggests immediate support near 151.73 (21-day average) with the next level around 150.11 (50-day average), but resistance looms at 154.80 and potentially 155 if the BoJ remains dovish. For November, the yen is expected to remain under pressure against most major currencies, while showing marginal strength only versus the aggressively easing NZD.​ Verdict Given the fundamental outlook, the NZD/JPY pair is more likely to decline or remain under downward pressure in November 2025 due to New Zealand's monetary easing and softer growth contrasted with Japan's expected eventual tightening and stable growth prospects. Therefore, NZD/JPY is a SELL candidate for November 2025.
Short
by Oneirotrade
NZDCHF November 2025 fundamental analysisNew Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.​ Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.​ November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Verdict The combination of moderate Swiss economic resilience with historically low SNB rates and heightened global uncertainty supports CHF strength. Meanwhile, the New Zealand economy’s slow but steady recovery and RBNZ easing limit NZD upside. NZD/CHF is thus a SELL in November.
Short
by Oneirotrade
BTCUSD — NY SessionLondon session reversed yesterday’s bearish volume distribution, reclaiming short-term control above the naked point of control near 101,127 — the first lost bearish distribution now flipped higher. That recovery showed buyers stepping back in to defend structure, with the NY open holding the move higher. Technically, Bitcoin still trades inside a bearish market structure. No daily highs have been broken, so the broader bias remains down. Heavier selling pressure is expected near the unfilled distribution level at 103,819. The full bearish range spans 104,803 (high) to 98,921 (low) — until that boundary breaks, this is a short-term trading environment, not a trending one. 🌍 Fundamental Frame (Macro Logic) Bitcoin continues to follow the dollar’s tone, not lead it. Dollar strength above 99.8, a cautious Fed, and an extended U.S. shutdown all keep liquidity tight. ETF outflows and high leverage unwind are adding pressure across crypto. This phase isn’t collapse — it’s the market reducing excess risk while capital looks for clarity. 🏛️ Authority Frame (Coach’s Lens) Reversals inside structure don’t signal trend change — they test participation. Professionals treat flips as information, not opportunity, until higher-timeframe control shifts. Each bounce inside a bearish map measures response quality, not direction. 🎯 Operator Rule: A recovered level tests strength — it doesn’t prove it. — Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
NZDCAD November 2025 fundamental analysisNew Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Canadian Dollar (CAD): Economic Headwinds and Continued Easing Bank of Canada Policy The Bank of Canada delivered another 25 basis point rate cut at its October 29 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%. This continues an aggressive easing cycle that has seen rates reduced by 225 basis points since June 2024, from a peak of 4.50% to the current 2.75%. Markets are pricing in current easing for the October meeting despite recent data showing 60,000 employment gains and headline inflation rising to 2.4%.​ Economic Challenges The BoC's dovish stance is driven by persistent concerns about the Canadian economic outlook. The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that uncertainty around trade policy continues to weigh heavily on investment and hiring plans. The "future sales" indicator dropped back into negative territory for the first time in 2025, and 63% of firms expect either unchanged or reduced workforce levels—levels historically associated with unemployment rates of 7.3% or higher.​ Canada's terms of trade have deteriorated significantly, with crude oil prices falling to multi-month lows. WTI crude is trading around $59-60 per barrel, down from earlier highs, removing a key pillar of support for the loonie. November Outlook: Bearish The Canadian Dollar faces a challenging November. USD/CAD has moved higher to the 1.40 handle, and while some analysts expect a return to 1.38 by year-end driven primarily by USD weakness, the path may be slow with potential spikes to 1.41. The loonie is expected to underperform against most G10 currencies, given the BoC's continued easing path and Canada's vulnerability to weak energy prices. Verdict A battle of weakness it seems, NZD and CAD are both currently not in their best shape. Still, CAD appears to keep its upper hand for the time being which means NZD/CAD is a SELL in November.
Short
by Oneirotrade
AUDUSD November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold Reserve Bank of Australia Stance The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.​ RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".​ Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.​ November Outlook: Very Bullish The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.​ United States Dollar (USD): Cautious Strength Amid Economic Resilience Monetary Policy: Fed's Hawkish Pause in Easing Cycle The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the lowest since 2022. However, the tone accompanying this decision was notably cautious. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," effectively pushing back against market expectations that had priced in an 87.7% probability of another 25bps reduction in October and 62% odds for December.​ This hawkish messaging reflects the Fed's assessment of persistently elevated inflation, which has risen for five consecutive months and currently stands at 3.0% for both headline and core measures as of September. The central bank cited "increasing downside risks to employment" but noted that Powell explicitly stated he does not anticipate further deterioration in the labor market. The decision saw two dissenting votes—one favoring a 50bps cut and another preferring to hold rates steady—highlighting the divided nature of current Fed thinking.​ Economic Fundamentals: Resilience Defying Expectations The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of historically high tariffs (effective rate of 16-17%, highest since 1934) and a prolonged government shutdown exceeding five weeks. After contracting -0.6% in Q1 2025, GDP rebounded sharply to 3.8% in Q2, with Q3 tracking similarly strong at 3-4% according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. This growth is partly attributed to AI-related spending, which accounts for more than half of US growth this year.​ However, the government shutdown—affecting 1.4 million federal employees with roughly half furloughed and half working without pay—poses growing risks. A rule of thumb suggests every week of shutdown shaves 0.1% off GDP. The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, potentially supporting a cautious approach in November and December.​ November Outlook: Dollar Strength with Caveats For November 2025, the USD maintains a positive outlook supported by several factors. The relative economic resilience compared to other major economies, higher interest rate differentials (3.875% vs most G10 currencies), and ongoing safe-haven demand underpin dollar strength. However, this strength is tempered by the prolonged government shutdown, fiscal concerns, and the gradual Fed easing trajectory.​ The dollar's performance will likely hinge on three key developments: resolution of the government shutdown, clarity on the December Fed decision, and the Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Market positioning shows the Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 98, with technical resistance at 99.75 representing a key threshold for sustained strength. Verdict Given the political insecurities surrounding the USD and AUD's unwavering strength, our conclusion for AUD/USD in November is BUY .
Long
by Oneirotrade
AUDNZD November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold Reserve Bank of Australia Stance The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.​ RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".​ Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.​ November Outlook: Very Bullish The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.​ New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Aggressive Easing Undermines Currency Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked markets on October 7 with an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50%, the lowest level since July 2022. This represented a departure from the 25-50 basis point split that markets had priced, with the RBNZ citing the need to "restore confidence in an economic recovery that has lost momentum". Since August 2024, the central bank has slashed rates by a total of 300 basis points.​ Markets now fully price in another 25 basis point cut at the November 26 meeting, with expectations for rates to decline to 2.0% by 2026. BNZ's Markets Outlook suggests the terminal OCR for this cycle may be 2.50%, though downside risks remain if the economy continues to disappoint.​ Economic Weakness New Zealand's economy contracted 0.9% in the second quarter, though the RBNZ's nowcast suggests a 0.7% rebound in Q3. However, this reported contraction may overstate economic weakness when considering the positive impact of terms of trade, as evidenced by real gross national disposable income showing 0.9% quarterly expansion and 2.2% annual growth. Nonetheless, the recovery remains subdued, and the trade-weighted index has declined to its lowest level since the April market volatility, sitting below the RBNZ's August projections.​ November Outlook: Very Bearish The New Zealand Dollar faces the most challenging outlook among major currencies. NZD/USD fell to $0.575 following the October RBNZ cut, hitting its lowest level since April. The currency recovered modestly to around 0.5780 by late October, but analysts warn of downside risks with key support at 0.5750 and potentially 0.56 below that. Against the Australian Dollar, NZD/AUD dropped to a three-year low of 0.8758, with further weakness expected given the diverging monetary policy paths. The aggressive RBNZ easing, weak economic fundamentals, and deteriorating terms of trade create a perfect storm for kiwi weakness in November. Verdict Given these very different policy stances between the two neighbors, AUD/NZD is expected to continue its rapid ascension in November leading to a very easy BUY recommendation.
Long
by Oneirotrade
AUDJPY November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold Reserve Bank of Australia Stance The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.​ RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".​ Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.​ November Outlook: Very Bullish The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.​ Japanese Yen (JPY): Political Dovishness Delays Normalization Bank of Japan: Divided Board, Delayed Tightening The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its October meeting, as widely expected, but the decision revealed significant internal division. The vote split 7-2, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata advocating for a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from the September meeting. Takata argued that "now is the appropriate time to raise interest rates," noting that inflation has remained above the bank's target for three and a half years, while Tamura called for moving toward neutral rates.​ Despite these hawkish voices, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious approach, emphasizing that the BoJ would continue with policy normalization "once its economic projections are met" but warning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. The central bank reiterated its inflation outlook, projecting core CPI at 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while raising 2025 growth forecasts slightly to 0.7%.​ Political Constraints: The Takaichi Factor The election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister in mid-October significantly altered the trajectory of BoJ policy expectations. Takaichi, known as a fiscal dove who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy, has complicated the path toward further tightening. Following her election, the yen depreciated more than 2% against the USD, and market expectations for an October rate hike evaporated.​ The new government's support for accommodative policy creates a political constraint on the BoJ's normalization efforts, even as some policymakers argue for immediate rate hikes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes to prevent excessive yen depreciation, adding external pressure to the central bank's considerations. Markets now assign only a 47% chance of a December rate hike, with consensus building around a delayed move to early 2026.​ November Outlook: Persistent Weakness Despite Normalization Promise The Japanese Yen carries a weak fundamental outlook for November, reflected in its trading near 154 per USD—nine-month lows and close to the 37-week low of 153.28. The currency has weakened more than 4% in October alone, making it one of the worst G10 performers. Despite some hawkish board members and the BoJ's stated intention to continue normalization, the dovish political environment and cautious central bank approach leave the yen vulnerable.​ The 3.25% interest rate differential with the USD remains a key driver supporting USD/JPY carry trades, though this spread is expected to compress toward 2.5% as the Fed continues cutting while the BoJ only gradually raises rates. While this compression could eventually support the yen, the timeline remains uncertain—potentially extending into 2026 rather than materializing in November. Technical analysis suggests immediate support near 151.73 (21-day average) with the next level around 150.11 (50-day average), but resistance looms at 154.80 and potentially 155 if the BoJ remains dovish. For November, the yen is expected to remain under pressure against most major currencies, while showing marginal strength only versus the aggressively easing NZD.​ Verdict Given the currently unmatched strength of the AUD and the JPY's continued weakness due to dovish monetary policy despite persistent inflation, AUD/JPY is a clear BUY for November.
Long
by Oneirotrade
AUDCHF November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold Reserve Bank of Australia Stance The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.​ RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".​ Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.​ November Outlook: Very Bullish The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.​ Swiss Franc (CHF): Safe Haven Supremacy Despite Zero Rates Swiss National Bank Policy The Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0.00% and shows no inclination to move into negative territory despite franc strength. At its September meeting, the SNB notably refrained from describing the franc as "highly valued" or expressing concern over its appreciation—a significant shift in communication. This suggests the SNB has become more comfortable with franc strength, particularly as Switzerland's real exchange rate remains relatively stable due to low domestic inflation of just 0.2%.​ Economic Environment Switzerland's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The SNB characterized current policy settings as "appropriately expansionary" despite the 0% rate, and expressed confidence that inflation will remain within the 0-2% target range. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with weaker growth prospects potentially limiting any hawkish policy adjustments.​ November Outlook: Bullish The Swiss franc's safe-haven status provides strong support in November's uncertain environment. EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.92-0.93, and analysts expect the pair to gradually appreciate toward 0.96 over the next 12 months, implying modest franc weakness against the euro. However, against the dollar, the franc is expected to strengthen significantly, with USD/CHF forecasts suggesting 0.77 within a year, with downside risks toward 0.75 or even 0.73. The franc's outperformance has persisted despite substantial interest rate differentials, demonstrating the power of safe-haven flows in the current geopolitical environment. Verdict We are dealing with two currently very strong currencies here who are battling out a close head-to-head race. However, going into November AUD is expected to pull ahead given its clear interest rate advantage resulting in a BUY recommendation for AUD/CHF in November.
Long
by Oneirotrade
DXY-USD Game PlanDXY-USD Game Plan 📊 Market Sentiment On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS as expected. However, Powell’s remarks introduced uncertainty regarding December’s potential cut, stating that decisions will depend on upcoming data. One FED member dissented, preferring no cut, a shift from September’s unanimous decision. As a result, rate cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, sparking short-term bullish sentiment for the USD, as traders adjusted portfolios toward defensive positioning. 📈 Technical Analysis The Dollar Index (DXY) hit its HTF Weekly Bullish Trendline and got rejected, forming a structural reversal pattern. We’ve now seen a break of short-term daily bearish trend, confirming strength and a potential leg higher toward 102.00 (Monthly FFVG). 📌 Game Plan / Expectations Expecting price to wick or close above 100.25, then potentially retrace before resuming the bullish leg. Primary upside target: Monthly FFVG zone at 102.00. Sentiment remains bullish for the dollar short term, which may pressure risk assets (stocks and crypto) temporarily. 💬 If this DXY breakdown supports your macro view, like, comment, and follow. For deeper insights and liquidity-based macro models, subscribe to my Substack (free access available). ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
TVC:DXY
by UA_CAPITAL
Bitcoin Bottom 2026We expect a cyclical market correction from 06th October 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by stress in the US financial system. Within institutional asset allocation frameworks, Bitcoin continues to be classified as a high beta risk asset. In an environment of liquidity tightening, such positions are typically reduced first. This dynamic can result in market driven price declines, independent of the long term structural growth narrative for digital assets. The core assumptions are: 1. Heightened risk aversion will lead to capital outflows from crypto assets. 2. Correlation to high growth technology equity markets is expected to remain elevated. 3. A pricing corridor for Bitcoin in the range of approximately USD 55,000 to 65,000 is a plausible outcome under these conditions. Once the Federal Reserve transitions into an easing cycle with lower policy rates and potentially renewed balance sheet expansion, risk appetite historically re-emerges. Capital rotation then moves back into higher volatility segments, positioning Bitcoin and related digital assets at the forefront of the next upward market phase.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by NXAnalyse
Risk‑off vs squeeze: the near‑term BTC plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ After a swift capitulation into 99–100k, the market is stabilizing on a 12H/1D floor cluster. The regime is mixed: HTFs remain constructive, while ETF outflows and a risk‑off backdrop cap momentum. Momentum: Bearish-neutral 📉 short term, stabilizing above 101.6–102.1k after capitulation‑type volume. Key levels: - Resistances (D/2D) : 103,800–104,063 (D Pivot High), 105,000–105,500 (intraday supply), 109,377 (2D Pivot High). - Supports (12H/1D/MTF) : 101,616–102,102 (1D/12H floors), 99,700–100,100 (multi‑TF cluster + D Pivot Low 100,267), 98,150–98,613 (2H floor + weekly pivot). Volumes: Very high intraday (capitulation) and normalizing on 1D. Multi-timeframe signals: 1W/1D/12H trend up; LTFs repairing. Hold 101.6–102.1k to target 103.8–104.1k; failure reopens 99.7–100.1k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral sell — aligns with risk‑off macro and partially contradicts the bounce attempt. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Context: HTF uptrend versus macro risk‑off; favor tactical buys at supports and avoid chasing breakouts without confirmation. Global bias: Neutral with a tactical buy tilt while 101.6–102.1k holds; key invalidation: sustained close < 101,616. Opportunities: - Buy confirmed pullback at 101,616–102,102 (≥2H/4H bullish) targeting 103.2k then 103.8–104.1k. - Breakout buy above 104,063 (D close) toward 105.0–105.5k, then 109,377 if momentum persists. - Tactical sell at 103.8–104.1k on clean rejection, or break/retest below 101,616 toward 100.3k then 99.7–100.1k. Risk zones / invalidations: Break below 101,616 voids the bounce path and opens 99.7–100.1k; strong rejection at 104k invalidates early longs. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Persistent spot BTC ETF outflows — cap upside under resistance. - Broad risk‑off (Asia equities down, firm USD) — pressure on supports. - FOMC: -25 bps and QT ending flagged — rate‑volatility, choppy tone. Action plan: - Entry: 101,650–102,150 after bullish confirmation (≥2H/4H). - Stop: ~0.7–1.0% below 101,616 (≈100.9k–100.6k). - TP1: 103,200–103,400; TP2: 103,800–104,063; TP3: 105,000–105,500. - Approx R/R: ~2R to 3R depending on fill/stop. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain upward while LTFs repair around the 99.7–100.1k and 101.6–102.1k floor clusters. 1D/12H/1W: Uptrend; price sitting on the 101.6–102.1k cluster. Holding it = stabilization and a path to 103.8–104.1k; daily reclaim above 104,063 opens 105–105.5k then 109,377. 6H/4H/2H: Rebound from 99–100k with very high volume implying local seller exhaustion; first gate 103.8–104.1k, confirmed on closes > 104,063. 1H/30m/15m: Basing above 100k; need a clean reclaim of 102.0–102.8k to extend; time failure if no push within 1–2 bars. Major divergences/confluences: Bullish confluence at MTF floors + capitulation volume; divergence with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator (neutral sell) — execute with tactical prudence. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is risk‑off with unfavorable ETF flows, likely capping bounces under 104k despite constructive HTFs. Macro events: Asia equities lower and a firm USD weigh on risk; BOJ remains easy; FOMC: -25 bps and QT ending flagged — more rate vol; US shutdown headlines keep liquidity cautious. Bitcoin analysis: Weekly “make‑or‑break” band at 101k–103k; large short liquidations above could fuel a squeeze on a decisive reclaim, yet ETF outflows limit upside follow‑through. On-chain data: Mixed accumulation, softer derivatives, hedging up — stability hides fragility absent fresh inflows. Expected impact: Prefer reactive buys at floors and demand daily closes > 104,063 before chasing breakouts. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is parked in a 101.6–104k decision zone, between sturdy MTF supports and a flow‑capped ceiling. Overall trend: neutral (HTF up vs macro risk‑off). Most relevant setup: tactical buy at 101.6–102.1k with scaled profit‑taking below 104k, or a confirmed breakout above 104,063. Key macro factor: persistent spot ETF outflows. Stay disciplined: act on floor signals and avoid unconfirmed breakouts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Gold might prepare for the pullbackGold is consolidating in a coil within the dynamic support area (the area of between 20 and 50 moving averages), and had reversed to the upswing after 4 consecutive closes below the intermediate-term low. If the upswing will be posed for continuation, we might see the price soaring in the next couple of days. Gold now is extremely volatile, so be careful with timing and stop-placement. Bullish scenario is more favorable, as volatility of equities (VIX) grow, and the technical position of Gold is within the potential support. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own reserch and never forget to manage your risk!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Kraken Robotics (TSX-V: PNG) - Swing TradeSwing Setup PNG.TO — Swing Trade Breakdown Kraken Robotics (TSX-V: PNG) is a Canadian marine technology company developing sonar and underwater robotics systems used in defense and offshore energy. The stock has exploded off its 52-week lows, driven by strong order flow and renewed interest in small-cap defense tech. It’s now showing a clean momentum setup with defined support and resistance levels for swing traders. 📊 Fundamentals Kraken trades at roughly 92× earnings, far above the small-cap tech average (20–30×), meaning growth expectations are already baked in. The price-to-book is around 14×, showing limited book value support. On the positive side, ROE sits near 17% with debt-to-equity at only 0.3, so leverage is low. However, free cash flow is still negative (~-13 M CAD) and the company relies on reinvestment for growth. Cash reserves around 33 M CAD provide a liquidity cushion. Overall, Kraken is a high-growth, high-valuation play — decent profitability but no margin for execution mistakes. 📈 Trends & Catalysts Revenue has climbed roughly 30% YoY (to about 90 M CAD), while EPS turned modestly positive (~0.06 CAD). That growth has investors rotating into the name, but negative operating cash flow remains a concern. Recent catalysts include: • New contracts in sonar and subsea battery systems • Expanding demand from naval and defense clients • Broader rotation into small-cap tech and defense innovation plays Main risks: valuation stretch, execution in complex defense contracts, and persistent negative FCF. 🪙 Industry Context Marine robotics is a small but rapidly growing niche. Over the past year, PNG has surged more than 200%, massively outperforming the TSX Tech Index. Sentiment has shifted bullish after years of stagnation, and the stock remains a micro-cap momentum magnet — but prone to sharp corrections. 📐 Technical View PNG is trading near 5.69 CAD, well above its 50-day SMA (~5.00) and 200-day SMA (~3.50) — confirming a strong uptrend. Momentum cooled after a sharp run, with RSI2 at 1.94, resetting from short-term overbought conditions. The 5.50–5.60 CAD zone is now acting as support (former breakout base), while 7.40 CAD marks the key resistance at the recent high. Volume spikes during rallies suggest institutional accumulation — but expect volatility. 🎯 Trade Plan I’m watching for a pullback entry around 5.50–5.70 CAD, which aligns with the 20-day EMA and prior consolidation range. Stop-loss sits near 5.00 CAD, just below structural support. Initial target is 7.40 CAD, offering roughly a 1.2:1 R/R, extendable toward 8.00+ CAD if momentum continues. Alternatively, a breakout above 6.70 CAD on strong volume could trigger a momentum continuation setup for active traders. 🧠 My Take Kraken is in a confirmed uptrend with strong sector tailwinds and visible contract growth. Valuation is aggressive, but momentum remains intact. This is a high-beta swing trade, not a long-term hold — I’m looking for a disciplined entry near support or a confirmed breakout, keeping risk tight and respecting volatility. Bias: Bullish above 5.50 CAD, targeting 7.40 CAD+ Invalidation: Close below 5.00 CAD
TSXV:PNGLong
by SwingTraderKev
Bitcoin Daily Analysis #11 – November 05, 2025 Scared? 😅 Good — pay close attention to how you feel these days and journal everything. The most valuable financial lessons come exactly from moments like these. 📖 As you can see, Bitcoin is under heavy selling pressure, and its sharp drop around the $100,000 zone has so far been supported by buyers. If that support breaks again, you could consider opening a short position, but ⚠️ don’t hold it too long — the overall trend remains bullish, and a strong rebound could follow. Around $104,000, we might see a risky long trigger, but only with tight risk management and a controlled position size. If Bitcoin tests $104,000 and gets rejected, a deeper correction or even a sharp drop could follow. We’re in a phase where the market could swing both ways — once it breaks out of this uncertainty, expect a powerful move. ⚡ Macro data and recent economic news still favor Bitcoin, and interestingly, during this decline, the big players have mostly stayed on the sidelines, with lower-than-average trading volume. 📈 No matter which way Bitcoin moves, your risk management will determine your success. 🎯 So avoid emotional decisions and let the chart structure guide you. 📊 Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. © DIBAPRISM Larry D.Kohn
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DibaPrism