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Fundamental Analysis

EURJPY → Long squeeze before growth FX:EURJPY is forming a long squeeze and a false breakdown of support amid a sharp decline. The trend is bullish, and buyers may enter the game against the backdrop of a weak yen. The Japanese yen is falling, giving way to the euro, which is strengthening against this backdrop. EURJPY is forming a global uptrend, which may generally support price growth... The currency pair is returning to its trading range after a false breakdown of support. If the bulls hold their ground above 176.600, the price may form an upward momentum. Resistance levels: 176.6, 177.0, 177.34 Support levels: 176.37, 176. 3 The market is trying to buy back the sharp decline, and the price is returning to the long zone, forming a reversal pattern. If the bulls hold the price above the support of the trading range, the market will have a chance to grow. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
8
ETHUSDT → Breakdown of the global trend. Distribution to 3360BINANCE:ETHUSDT is entering a distribution phase after breakdown of a consolidation formed against the backdrop of a bearish trend (correction). Sentiment, like the fundamental background, is changing... Bitcoin is falling, which is putting pressure on the market. The reasons are weak fundamentals, index correction, and the rise of the dollar (outflow of funds from the market). On the daily ETH timeframe, we see a break in the uptrend. Monday's candle closed below the trend line, and since the opening of the session, the price has rallied (panic???) Ethereum is coming out of consolidation (breakthrough of 3671). A distribution phase is forming, directed towards 3366 (liquidity pool). Technically, a false breakdown of support could trigger a pullback to 3600 (retest of the previously broken upward support line). Support levels: 3366, 3150, 3000 Resistance levels: 3600, 3670, 3916 Despite the breakdown of the trend structure, we have strong support ahead. If the bulls hold 3366, the market may form a wider trading range. But if the overall background does not change, the decline may continue after the correction... Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
Sell EUR/USD 1.1523 — Fibo Confluence Setup, Downtrend ContinuatSell EUR/USD 1.1523 — Fibo Confluence Setup, Downtrend Continuation. Condition 1: The setup aligns with the downtrend; price still has room to continue, confirming trend continuation. Condition 2: Draw a Fibonacci retracement in the direction of the trend. The strongest confluence zone (0.5–0.618) coincides with the key level around 1.1523. Condition 3: An order block (OB) are present around the 1.1523 area. Based on this, there is a sell setup around 1.1523.
Stop loss: above the strong Fibonacci zone (0.5–0.618). Price is expected to continue moving downward. Analysis by: Hung Minsk Fibo Trung
Short
by hungminskfibotrung
4
Why the US Dollar Dominates the Loonie?The USD/CAD pair trades near 1.4100, reflecting the US Dollar's (USD) persistent strength against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This rally to seven-month highs stems from powerful structural and cyclical forces. We observe a widening monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainty that favors the USD. Analyzing macroeconomics, fiscal policy, and trade reveals why the CAD struggles to sustain gains, despite positive Canadian data. Geopolitics and Geostrategy: North American Trade Friction Trade uncertainty directly pressures the CAD. Recent trade tensions with the US create significant CAD headwinds. Prime Minister Mark Carney apologized for an anti-tariff advertisement, but President Trump reportedly rejected resuming trade talks. This situation keeps bilateral trade risk elevated, undermining business confidence in Canada. US court proceedings over broad tariffs further inject political risk into the U.S.-Canada relationship, threatening key sectors like the auto industry. The USD functions as the global reserve safe-haven anchor. Global investors gravitate toward USD assets during times of geopolitical friction. This geostrategic function offers the USD a structural advantage over the commodity-linked CAD, reinforcing the pair's upward momentum. Macroeconomics: Diverging Rate Paths The primary driver remains the widening interest rate differential. Strong US data bolsters the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance. US ADP Employment climbed by 42,000 in October, reversing the prior decline. ISM Services PMI also rose to 52.4, exceeding forecasts. This resilience strengthens the USD. The Fed maintains a cautious approach toward future rate cuts. CME FedWatch Tool data shows traders reduced the probability of a December Fed cut to 62% from 68%. Conversely, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has already cut its policy rate to 2.25%. Although the BoC signaled an easing cycle pause, markets focus on expected future divergence. This policy gap favors dollar-denominated assets, pushing the USD/CAD higher. Economics and Fiscal Policy Headwinds Canada's fiscal policy adds downward pressure on the CAD. The new Canadian budget projects the fiscal deficit will more than double this year. Deficit projections reach -2.5% of GDP for 2025/26 and -2.0% for 2026/27, representing material fiscal loosening. Markets interpret this spending as potentially inflationary without sufficient growth, weakening the CAD. Furthermore, the CAD remains highly sensitive to crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades near $\$60.00$ per barrel, declining slightly. As a major oil exporter, softer energy prices negatively impact Canada's terms of trade and export revenue, directly pressuring the Loonie. Technology and Patent Analysis: The Competitiveness Gap Structural economic factors underpin the CAD weakness. Canada faces an ongoing competitiveness gap with the US, particularly in high-tech and innovation sectors. Persistent lower productivity growth in Canada compared to the US makes the Canadian economy less appealing for long-term capital investment. The US economy demonstrates superior labor productivity growth and strong performance in advanced industries. This technology and innovation lag limits the CAD's potential for sustained appreciation. The US also benefits from acting as a "black hole" attraction for Canadian talent and intellectual property. This fundamental economic divergence provides structural support for the Greenback's long-term dominance.
Long
by the5erstrading
EUR/USD Trade Alert🚨 EUR/USD Trade Alert 🚨 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Type: 🔴 Sell Entry: 1.15094 Take Profit (TP): 🎯 1.14246 Stop Loss (SL): ❌ 1.15450 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 Status: Active 💡 Market Insight: Sellers remain in control while price trades below the stop level. As long as price stays under 1.15450, the bearish momentum supports a move toward 1.14246. A break above the stop cancels the idea.
Short
by Praxis_FX01
6
Daily Gold Analysis — Potential Buy Zones Until Saturday 📈 The MyShare Finance team publishes daily gold analyses (XAUUSD) on our channel. These insights are valuable both for active traders and for those tracking physical gold buying opportunities. In today’s analysis, we’ve identified price zones with strong buying potential based on technical and sentiment factors. 🟢 If gold price reaches the 3920 and 3890 levels, we plan to buy in two separate steps (scaling in). These zones represent areas of interest for both short-term trading and physical accumulation strategies. 🔹 MyShare Analysis: Gold is trading near major support zones. If selling pressure eases, a technical rebound toward higher resistance levels is likely. However, note that volatility during the New York session can spike — so maintain proper risk management. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is purely for educational and analytical purposes and should not be considered as financial advice or a direct trading recommendation. #Gold #XAUUSD #TradingAnalysis
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Myshare_finance1
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 6, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to watch today: 14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision GBPUSD: Sterling remains near multi-month lows as markets weigh the UK’s tight fiscal crossroads and the risk of higher tax burdens in the November Budget. Expectations for a more cautious policy path from the Bank of England—after a sequence of rate reductions in 2025—combine with softening domestic leading indicators, reducing the premium for holding sterling-denominated assets. As a result, demand for dollar safe-haven instruments outpaces interest in the pound. A cloudy fiscal horizon—debate around the deficit and parameters of future consolidation—and softer UK price dynamics through the autumn limit room for GBP strength. At the same time, the external backdrop of a firm US dollar, volatile US Treasury yields, and generally wary global risk appetite weighs on the pound, as investors curb positioning ahead of BoE decisions and key incoming data. Overall, the fundamental balance of risks for sterling is skewed toward weakness: the dollar enjoys more support (including comparatively resilient US growth), whereas the UK narrative is loaded with uncertainty from budget to inflation. This preserves the probability of GBP/USD probing lower levels as caution dominates and in the absence of positive surprises from London. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.30650, SL 1.31150, TP 1.30000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold trade in a narrow range with lack of majors dataGold is consolidating within a range of 3900-4500 due to geopolitical easing, but the US government's prolonged shutdown has now reached its longest duration, which could cost the US economy $15 billion per week and cloud the economic data, such as the labor market, which is currently weakening. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change shows the private sector gained 50k jobs in October, easing concerns over the labor market. However, the ADP number usually diverges from the official NFP data, and it might not provide a clearer picture of the US labor market. Gold prices could become more volatile when US government operations resume, providing clearer data. Elsewhere, central banks are expected to build up their gold reserves in 3Q 2025 with an annual growth rate of 28%, providing support for the gold price. Technically, after a long rally since Aug, the XAUUSD tends to retreat and trade in a narrow range to absorb the profit-taking pressure. XAUUSD breaches the EMA21, and trading between both flattening EMAs signals further consolidation. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WiseLeoTrading
GOLD rises despite strong ADP jobs dataOANDA:XAUUSD prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday to $3,978.92 an ounce, despite better-than-expected U.S. private-sector jobs data, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid high stock market valuations and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which are reshaping the global economic landscape. The ADP employment report showed that the private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, well above the forecast of 28,000, reinforcing the view that the US labor market remains strong and therefore the Fed can delay rate cuts. However, the rise in real yields has not been enough to dampen demand for havens, as investors view gold as a hedge against a potential correction in risk assets. Christian Borjon Valencia (FXStreet) said gold prices were supported by dovish comments from several Fed officials. Meanwhile, Jim Wyckoff (Kitco Metals) said “safe haven demand is back” as investors “are increasingly concerned about the AI ​​stock bubble and the overvaluation of the US market.” Financial markets are in a wait-and-see mode as the US Supreme Court holds a hearing on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. An adverse ruling could result in the government having to repay more than $100 billion in tariffs and limit the White House’s ability to direct trade policy, potentially sending shockwaves through the dollar and commodity markets. Conservative justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch, have questioned whether the president has the authority to unilaterally impose a “tax on Americans” without congressional approval. A decision against Trump could weaken his central “economic weapon” and drive money into risk-free assets like gold. On the political prediction market Kalshi, the likelihood of the court backing Trump has fallen from nearly 50% to just about 30%, reflecting growing skepticism about the sustainability of the tariff strategy. These factors combine to suggest that OANDA:XAUUSD is consolidating its position in a transitional period between monetary policy and political uncertainty, a period in which the Fed is cautious, Washington faces regulatory risks and its power structure is challenged. Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold prices are entering a narrow consolidation phase around the $3,940–$3,980/ounce range, after a correction from the $4,380 peak. The daily chart shows that the short-term downtrend channel structure is still maintained, but the downside momentum has weakened significantly. The $3,896 (0.5 Fib) zone continues to act as a key support, while the $3,972–$4,055 resistance zone (0.382 Fib and MA20) is the decisive threshold for the next trend. The RSI is slowly recovering from the neutral zone and is showing signs of converging with the moving MA, implying that selling pressure is drying up and the market may form a short-term bottom. If the price breaks out decisively at $3,972, the current accumulation pattern could be completed, opening a recovery cycle towards $4,128, the 0.236 Fib mark of the previous decline. The conditions for a new bull run lie in gold prices remaining stable above the $3,900 support zone, combined with improved cash flows and expectations of the Fed shifting to a more dovish stance in December. In that case, the current consolidation zone could become the basis for a new rally, rather than just a technical pullback. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4022 - 4020⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4026 →Take Profit 1 4014 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4008 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3948 - 3950⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3944 →Take Profit 1 3956 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3962
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Day 63 — Trading Only S&P Futures +$149.80Recap & Trades Day 63 — a quiet, disciplined day. I started late, didn’t see any A+ setups, so I mostly stayed out of the market. The only positions came from overnight team orders that Bia and Ray placed — and they hit perfectly. It’s a reminder that sometimes, letting the plan work without forcing it can be the best trade of all. Lesson & Mindset Not every day needs to be high action. The best traders know when to trade — and when to protect their mental and financial capital. If the market structure doesn’t align, patience is a position. News & Levels Futures pushed higher on headlines that Schumer and Jeffries are seeking a deal to end the government shutdown. It’s keeping sentiment slightly bullish into the next session. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6870 bullish, below 6860 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
XAUUSD – DAILY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050💛 XAUUSD – DAILY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Although the larger trend for gold leans towards a downtrend, today I prioritize a bullish scenario in the short term. On the M30 chart, the price structure is gradually increasing, indicating that short-term capital is shifting towards buyers. The 3990 zone is a very important area – where a Break of Structure (BOS) has just appeared and is also a strong resistance that has reacted multiple times before. Price needs to confirm a break above this area to continue expanding the bullish trend. 💹 2. Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) 📈 An ascending structure (BOS) has formed on M30. 🟣 Buy Zone 3977–3979 coincides with the support trendline – a beautiful confluence point for buyers. 🔹 Resistance zone 3990–4000 is the area to confirm the main direction. 💫 Higher target: Fibonacci Extension 1.618 area around 4049–4050, coinciding with the psychological resistance at 4050. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan 💖 Main BUY (priority) Entry: 3977–3979 ｜ SL: 3970 TP: 3988 – 4000 – 4022 – 4040 – 4050 💢 Short SELL (when price reacts strongly at resistance) Entry: 4012–4014 ｜ SL: 4020 TP: 4002 – 3988 – 3965 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Price needs to confirm above the 3990 area to solidify the bullish trend. If it breaks below 3970, the ascending structure is temporarily invalidated. Today, prioritize buying according to the capital flow, sell only when there is a clear signal at the resistance zone. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is showing positive signals 💛 Be patient and wait for reactions at the Buy Zone 3977–3979, this could be the starting point for a new upward move towards 4050. This is not an investment recommendation, just a personal view according to the ICT method. If you find it useful, please 💛 like – 💬 comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 to update gold analysis with me every day ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Lemonade Inc.: Breakout in Motion — Cup, Flag, and No BrakesLemonade Inc. (LMND) is accelerating after a clean breakout from a textbook cup with handle pattern, where the handle formed as a tight bullish flag. The breakout occurred around $32, and since then, price action has been sharp, controlled, and uncorrected — currently trading at $42.42 with buyers clearly in charge. On the fundamental side, LMND is moving through a recovery phase: operational losses are narrowing, revenue is stabilizing, and the company is aggressively leveraging AI to automate its insurance processes. Expansion into Europe continues, and institutional interest is visibly rising — confirmed by volume building alongside price. Within the insuretech sector, LMND is starting to look like a comeback story rather than a cautionary tale. Technically, the setup remains strong: – Golden Cross confirmed (EMA50 crossing EMA200) – EMA50/100/200 all below price — bullish structure firmly intact – Volume expanding on up-days — healthy confirmation – RSI hovering in the 60–65 range — momentum is intact, no signs of exhaustion Targets remain aligned with the structure: – tp1 = $64 — measured move from the flag – tp2 = $94 — full realization of the cup pattern Tactically, this is no longer a “wait and see” setup — the move is in progress. No correction so far, only continuation. Momentum traders may consider entries into strength. Above $45, the move could accelerate further as more participants recognize the structure. LMND is showing technical and fundamental alignment — confirmed breakout, improving narrative, and strong trend structure. While the impulse holds, this chart favors continuation, not hesitation.
NYSE:LMNDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
More sideways/down for $BTC as dictated by Global LiquidityRecent price action in relation to the BGL (Bitcoin Global Liquidity indicator) has got me thinking that the delay has shifted to around 90 days instead of the 72 day default lag. While this may or may not be the case, the BGL (72 and 90 day delay) has correctly called the current downside/sideways price action for CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Note: the BGL has been correctly predicting price action for the entire cycle). If this continues to be correlated, then we will continue to get sideways/down until at least February 2026 (the farthest in the future the BGL can currently "see"). While I root for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to "go up," the BGL says there is currently no end in site to sideways/down. --Da_Prof
by Da_Prof
8
USD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup (6 Nov 2025)📊 Technical Structure FX:USDJPY USD/JPY trades around 153.85, consolidating beneath the Resistance Zone (154.07–154.24) after failing to sustain its rebound from the 153.00 level. The recent rejection near 154.20 indicates selling pressure returning at prior supply levels. The Support Zone lies between 152.88–153.04, which served as a strong demand base earlier this week. A confirmed breakdown below 153.50 could accelerate a retracement toward this area. Conversely, a sustained break above 154.30 would negate the bearish structure and resume the uptrend. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Short from resistance, targeting retest of key support zone. Entry: 154.07– 154.24 Stop Loss: 154.28 Take Profit 1: 153.04 Take Profit 2: 152.88 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.72 A decisive hourly close above 154.28 invalidates the bearish setup. 🌐 Macro Background The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens modestly during Thursday’s Asian session, buoyed by revived BoJ rate hike bets, though upside momentum remains limited due to policy uncertainty. According to FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani, “The Japanese Yen attracts some buying as hopes for an imminent BoJ rate hike persist, though policy caution caps gains.” 【FXStreet】 BoJ Outlook: Minutes from the September BoJ meeting highlighted policymakers’ openness to raising interest rates, citing that the 2% inflation goal has been largely achieved. However, the central bank remains cautious amid external risks and weak global demand. Fiscal Context: Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi continues to favour aggressive fiscal spending, dampening expectations of rapid monetary tightening. USD Factors: The US Dollar remains firm after the ADP employment report showed 42,000 new private-sector jobs in October and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to an eight-month high, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish bias. Shutdown Impact: The US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, clouds near-term data reliability and limits aggressive USD buying despite strong fundamentals. Overall, the Yen’s short-term strength is tempered by BoJ caution and global risk recovery, while the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to anchor USD/JPY above 153. Yet, with technical rejection from resistance and potential consolidation, a short-term corrective dip looks likely. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: 154.07 – 154.24 Support: 152.88 – 153.04 Psychological Level: 154.00 📌 Trade Summary USD/JPY is encountering resistance around 154.20 while forming lower intraday highs. The combination of BoJ rate speculation and Fed hawkish stability suggests a range-bound but corrective bias. The preferred setup is a short from 154.07–154.24, targeting a retracement to 153.00, provided price remains capped below 154.30. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
Gold price analysis June 11✏️ XAUUSD Analysis — 06/11 Today's gold trading range is being established within 100 prices, limited by the resistance zone of 4031 and the support zone of 3931. The main trend is still up, so the strategy of prioritizing BUY following the market momentum will be more suitable in this period. The Keylevel zone of 4031 continues to play an important role — if the buying force is strong enough to break this zone, the next target will be 4150. On the other hand, it is necessary to observe the price reaction around the trendline and the support zone of yesterday's Asian session to determine whether the buying force is still maintained or not. 📈 Trading Plan BUY around 3984 BUY when there is a price rejection signal at support 3931 BUY DCA when price breaks 4031 🎯 Target: 4150 ⚠️ Risk: when price breaks the trendline and closes the candle below 3930
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Xau/Usd - Bullish Breakout Setup Gold is currently consolidating above the $3,955–3,965 support zone, forming a solid base for potential bullish continuation. The market has shown strong rejection from the lower range, suggesting buyers are stepping back in to defend key levels. Momentum remains constructive, and price action indicates the possibility of a breakout from the $3,995–4,010 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this level could open the path toward $4,100, with extended targets around $4,150–4,200. As long as gold holds above its support base, the bias stays bullish. Trading Plan: • Entry: Above $3,995 • Targets: $4,100 / $4,150 / $4,200 • Stop Loss: Below $3,950 • Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamza_Gold
Sell GBP/USD 1.3110 — Fibo Confluence Setup, Downtrend ContinuatSell GBP/USD 1.3110 — Fibo Confluence Setup, Downtrend Continuation. Condition 1: The setup aligns with the downtrend; price still has room to continue, confirming trend continuation. Condition 2: Draw a Fibonacci retracement in the direction of the trend. The strongest confluence zone (0.5–0.618) coincides with the key level around 1.3110. Condition 3: An order block (OB) and imbalance are present around the 1.3110 area. Based on this, there is a sell setup around 1.3110. Stop loss: above the strong Fibonacci zone (0.5–0.618). Price is expected to continue moving downward. Analysis by: Hung Minsk Fibo Trung
Short
by hungminskfibotrung