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Crude oil - DAILY- 15/09/2025Oil prices extended last week’s gains as traders weighed rising geopolitical risks against forecasts of a surplus later this year. US President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Europe to cut Russian oil purchases and floated sanctions if NATO allies comply, while the US is also pushing G7 partners to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian crude. Market sentiment remains shaped by escalating tensions, including Israeli strikes in Qatar and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Analysts warn that sanctions and infrastructure damage could push prices higher in the short term, but expectations of a supply overhang and OPEC+ production increases keep downside risks in focus. On the technical side, the price of crude oil has retested the major support area of $62 and has since rebounded to the upside. The Stochastic oscillator is back in neutral levels for the time being, hinting that the recent bullish correction could project into the near short term while the Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
TVC:USOIL
by antreas_themistokleous_exness
Webull Chart - Robinhood Competitor?Calling all matadors, we got a bull to corral. I've charted some levels of interest for a speculative hold. Many view webull as a potential competitor for robinhood, although fundamentally, bull is in no-where near in the financial position that hood is in terms of free cash flow and expenses (or innovation as far as I've seen). This could make a great swing trade on pure technicals. If the brokerage industry sees a period of exuberance(like we've seen in the quantum space), bull could catch a bid. This could also occur if we see a rotation out of hood. I would love to pick up some shares or calls if the name completes a look below and fail of the anchored volume profile's value area low(around $12.28). or a LBAF of the box bottom @ $10.20. So far webull has been consolidating. I believe a hold above the VPOC (volume point of control @ $15.43), a breakout of the lower boxes and reclaim of the larger upper box around $18.33-$18.87, could see a push to the mid 20s and 30s at least. If we are following box rules for that potential trade, then I would not be surprised if bull goes to the box midpoint @ $48.97. If this thing holds above the VPOC around $15.43 or does a LBAF of either $12.28 or $10.20 it's ripe for picking imo. Now this is pure speculation, and my analysis could be a shack of shit, who knows, BUT if these set ups present themselves, I would like to roll the dice. ~ The Villain
NASDAQ:BULLLong
by The_Villain_777
Long Coffee📌 Coffee Futures: Seasonality, Market Drivers & Trading Insights Coffee is one of the most important soft commodities in the world, consumed daily by billions of people. Traded for centuries, coffee originated in Ethiopia before spreading through Arabia and later into Europe, becoming a global staple. Today, two main bean varieties dominate the market: Arabica (≈70% of global supply): Higher quality, smoother flavor, and the most actively traded on futures exchanges. Robusta (≈30% of supply): Stronger flavor, more caffeine, used in instant coffee and blends. Coffee futures (KC contracts, traded on ICE) allow producers, roasters, exporters, and investors to hedge against price volatility or speculate on global demand and supply swings. These futures are physically settled, but most speculative traders roll or close positions before delivery. 🔹 1. Global Coffee Supply Concentration Nearly 74% of the world’s coffee beans come from just five countries: 🇧🇷 Brazil → Largest producer, dominates Arabica and Robusta exports. 🇻🇳 Vietnam → Largest Robusta producer, key competitor to Brazil. 🇨🇴 Colombia → High-quality Arabica supplier. 🇮🇩 Indonesia → Mix of Arabica & Robusta, weather-sensitive. 🇪🇹 Ethiopia → Birthplace of coffee, major Arabica exporter. Because of this concentration, traders monitor weather, politics, and economics in these countries closely. A frost in Brazil or political unrest in Vietnam can shake the entire global market. 🔹 2. What Moves Coffee Prices the Most? Coffee is one of the most weather-sensitive and geopolitically exposed commodities. 1️⃣ Weather in Producing Countries Frosts and droughts in Brazil (especially during flowering season) can cut supply drastically. El Niño / La Niña events disrupt rainfall patterns across South America and Asia. 📌 Example: July 2021 frost in Brazil devastated crops → Coffee futures surged over 60% within months. 2️⃣ Political Instability Strikes, protests, or export restrictions in Brazil, Vietnam, or Colombia can delay shipments. Political risks in Latin America historically coincide with coffee supply disruptions. 3️⃣ Global Economic Growth Rising incomes in Asia, Africa, and Latin America increase coffee consumption. Coffee shifts from a luxury to a daily staple, driving long-term demand growth. 4️⃣ Health Reports & Consumer Trends Positive studies about coffee’s health benefits (antioxidants, longevity, heart health) boost consumption. Rising demand for premium Arabica beans (specialty coffee, single-origin) drives price premiums. 🔹 3. Seasonality of Coffee Futures Like other soft commodities, coffee follows seasonal cycles tied to harvest and demand. 📈 Best Periods: Late winter to early summer (Feb–Jul). Traders often buy into supply fears before Brazil’s winter season (risk of frost). 📉 Weaker Periods: Harvest season in major producing regions (Sep–Oct) when fresh supply pressures prices. 📌 Example: Coffee futures tend to rally into June/July when frost concerns in Brazil peak, then weaken post-harvest in the fall. 🔹 4. How to Trade Coffee Futures & ETFs Coffee Futures (KC) → Traded on ICE, standard contract for institutional & speculative traders. JO ETF (iPath Coffee ETN) → Retail-friendly option for coffee exposure. Stocks with Coffee Exposure Starbucks (SBUX): Global leader in coffee retail. Nestlé (NESN.SW): Owns Nescafé & Nespresso, one of the largest global coffee buyers. JM Smucker (SJM): Owns Folgers & Dunkin’ brands. Luckin Coffee (LKNCY): Fast-growing Chinese coffee chain (emerging markets play). 📌 When coffee prices rise → Retailers like Starbucks may face margin compression unless they pass costs to consumers. 📌 When coffee prices fall → Profit margins improve for coffee sellers & roasters. 🔹 5. Coffee Trading Strategies 📈 Strategy #1: Buy and Hold Buy and hold when the close price today is greater than the 200 Simple Moving Average, and the 14-14 ADX is lower than 50; and Sell when neither of the above conditions are met. Additional Notes: In the 4-HR, a 200 SMA and 30 ADX Threshold can work. Rallies typically last 120~180 days after the signal is generated. Stop loss is either the 21 SMA, or the 2.5x Daily ATR. 📈 Strategy #2: Seasonal Long (Feb–Jul) Go long coffee futures or JO ETF in late winter. Exit before fall harvest (Sep–Oct). 📈 Strategy #3: Weather Hedge Track Brazil’s weather models (frost, drought risk). Enter futures or ETFs ahead of known risk windows. 📈 Strategy #4: Macro Demand Growth Long-term investors may pair coffee exposure with emerging-market consumer stocks (Nestlé, Starbucks, Luckin Coffee). 📌 Conclusion: Coffee as a Soft Commodity Trade Coffee is one of the most volatile and globally impactful soft commodities. With supply concentrated in a handful of nations and consumption spread worldwide, it offers both seasonal trading opportunities and long-term growth exposure. ✅ Seasonality Edge: Strongest in Feb–Jul, weakest in harvest season. ✅ Macro Edge: Track Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia → weather & politics drive 70%+ of supply. ✅ Consumer Edge: Health trends + premium coffee demand = long-term bullish. ✅ Diversification Edge: Coffee moves independently from equities & metals, making it an attractive portfolio diversifier. Traders who align seasonality, weather, and demand cycles can use coffee futures or ETFs to capture repeatable opportunities in this globally essential commodity.
NYMEX:KT1!Long
by GabrielAmadeusLau
PUMP SOMETHING LIKE THIS!!PUMP is now in price discovery and that means the only place to look for a long trade to join the PUMP is the previous pivot lows getting swept which will show us a clear defined area to put our stop-loss. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Long
by Navitility
Short Sugar📌 When is Sugar in High Demand & How Does It Cycle? Sugar, extracted from sugarcane and sugar beet, is one of the world’s oldest and most consumed commodities. Beyond sweetening food and beverages, sugar has also become a critical biofuel input through ethanol production, especially in Brazil. Because of its dual role in food and energy markets, sugar futures are actively traded on global exchanges like ICE, CME, and NYMEX, offering traders volatility and diversification. Historically, sugar has been a boom-and-bust market, with periods of oversupply followed by sharp deficits. These cycles are amplified by government subsidies, tariffs, ethanol mandates, and weather shocks. For hedgers, sugar futures provide protection against price fluctuations, while for speculators, they offer seasonal and trend-based trading opportunities. 🔹 1. Core Sugar Futures Trading Strategies 📈 Strategy #1: Seasonal Hedge Play The best period to hold long positions in sugar is from late May through late January. This window aligns with harvest cycles in Brazil and India, along with ethanol blending seasons and holiday consumption peaks. 📌 Historical Note: Data shows sugar has outperformed significantly in these months, making it one of the more reliable soft commodity seasonal plays. 📈 Strategy #2: Keltner Channel Breakout Model Buy Signal: When price closes above the 350-day moving average + 7-day ATR. Sell Signal: When price closes below the 350-day moving average – 7-day ATR. 📌 Alternate setting: 111-day length has also proven effective. I prefer Heikin Ashi. Why it works: The 350-day average reflects the long-term trend, filtering out noise. The ATR buffer prevents false breakouts, only triggering when volatility confirms the move. Sugar tends to trend strongly during supply shocks, making breakout systems powerful. 🔹 2. Seasonality of Sugar Futures Like most agricultural commodities, sugar exhibits clear seasonal tendencies tied to planting, harvest, and consumption cycles. 📈 Best Performing Months: February, June, July, November, December. 📉 Weaker Months: March–April (post-harvest supply pressure), late summer (demand softens). 📌 Example: In Nov–Dec 2020, sugar futures rallied over 15% as Brazilian mills shifted more cane production toward ethanol due to higher oil prices, tightening global sugar supply. 🔹 3. What Moves the Sugar Market the Most? Sugar is uniquely influenced by both food and energy markets: 1️⃣ Government Subsidies & Tariffs India, Thailand, and the EU heavily subsidize sugar production. Policy shifts on export quotas or subsidies can swing prices sharply. 2️⃣ Ethanol Demand & Oil Prices Brazil diverts sugarcane to either sugar or ethanol depending on profitability. 📌 High oil prices → more ethanol demand → less sugar supply → sugar prices rise. 📌 Low oil prices → weaker ethanol demand → excess sugar supply → sugar prices fall. 3️⃣ Brazil’s Currency (Brazilian Real, BRL) Brazil is the largest global producer/exporter of sugar. A weaker BRL encourages exports, often putting downward pressure on prices. 4️⃣ Weather Conditions Sugarcane requires consistent tropical rainfall. Droughts in Brazil or monsoon failures in India can severely restrict global supply. 5️⃣ Global Consumption Trends Rising sugar demand in emerging markets, coupled with global population growth, supports long-term demand. However, health-driven sugar reduction campaigns in developed countries can act as a drag on demand. 🔹 4. Seasonal Sugar Trading Calendar Month Seasonal Driver Typical Price Behavior Trading Implication Jan–Feb Ethanol blending + holiday demand Bullish Strong long entries Mar–Apr Post-harvest supply pressures Weak Potential short trades May–Jun Brazil harvest + global demand pickup Bullish Begin seasonal longs Jul–Aug Northern Hemisphere demand steady Bullish Hold longs Sep–Oct Supply stabilization Neutral/volatile Range trading Nov–Dec Holiday & ethanol demand Strong bullish Aggressive long entries 📌 Seasonal Summary: Best window to be long is May–January, weakest window is March–April. 🔹 5. Vehicles for Trading Sugar Sugar Futures (ICE: SB): The most direct exposure, widely used by hedgers and speculators. ETNs/ETFs: CANE (Teucrium Sugar Fund) → tracks sugar futures. SGG (iPath Bloomberg Sugar Subindex ETN). Sugar Producers & Food Companies: Cosan (CZZ) → Brazilian sugar & ethanol giant. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) → diversified commodity trader. Nestlé, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Cheesecake → indirect sugar demand exposure. 📌 Conclusion: Best Sugar Trading Strategy Sugar may seem like a simple sweetener, but as a traded commodity it is anything but simple. It sits at the intersection of agriculture and energy, making it one of the most interesting plays in the softs market. ✅ Seasonality Edge: Be long sugar from May–January; strongest months are Feb, Jun, Jul, Nov, Dec. ✅ Trend Edge: Use the 350-day MA + ATR breakout model to catch large moves. ✅ Macro Edge: Watch oil prices and Brazilian real (BRL) → they directly affect supply. ✅ Hedging Edge: Sugar futures are excellent for both producers and consumers to hedge against unpredictable price swings. In short, sugar provides unique opportunities for traders who combine seasonality, macro awareness, and breakout systems. While volatile, its cyclical tendencies make it a commodity that rewards disciplined strategies.
NYMEX:YO1!Short
by GabrielAmadeusLau
Long Chocolate📌 Cocoa Futures: Seasonality, Trading Strategies & Market Drivers Cocoa is more than just the foundation of chocolate; it’s a soft commodity with centuries of economic significance. Once used as currency by ancient civilizations in Central and South America, cocoa became a global commodity after the Spanish conquest introduced it to Europe. Today, it underpins a multibillion-dollar industry that spans confectionery, beverages, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals. Cocoa futures, traded on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), give traders and institutions exposure to this volatile market. These contracts are a critical tool for producers, exporters, chocolate manufacturers, and speculative traders. Because cocoa is grown almost exclusively in tropical regions—with over 70% of global supply coming from West Africa—it is highly vulnerable to weather, political instability, and labor disruptions, making it one of the most volatile agricultural commodities. For traders, this volatility is both a challenge and an opportunity. With the right combination of technical setups, seasonal awareness, and macro fundamentals, cocoa futures can be a powerful addition to a diversified trading strategy. 🔹 1. A Simple but Effective Cocoa Futures Strategy (RSI + EMA Model) One robust short-term trading framework for cocoa is built on two components: momentum (measured by the Relative Strength Index) and trend direction (measured by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average). 📌 Trading Rules: Buy Signal (enter next day open): When the 3-day RSI falls below 20 (oversold) and the close remains above the 100-day EMA. Short Signal (enter next day open): When the 3-day RSI rises above 80 (overbought) and the close is below the 100-day EMA. Risk/Reward (RR): Set at 2:1 for favorable risk exposure. I use Heikin-Ashi. Historical Win Rate: Approximately 70%, meaning the system has shown consistent profitability in backtests. 📌 Why it works: The RSI ensures entries are taken when the market is temporarily stretched. The EMA filter avoids fighting against the broader trend, reducing false signals. Cocoa, being highly mean-reverting, often corrects after extreme RSI conditions, especially when aligned with the prevailing long-term trend. This makes the system simple enough for beginners yet effective for experienced futures traders looking for structured rules. 🔹 2. Seasonality in Cocoa Futures In commodity trading, seasonality refers to recurring price tendencies tied to the calendar—harvests, weather cycles, or consumption trends. Cocoa has one of the clearest seasonal footprints in the soft commodity sector. 📈 Summer Months (June – September): Historically the strongest period for cocoa. Demand from chocolate manufacturers builds as companies secure supply ahead of year-end holidays. Weather risk in West Africa also coincides with the rainy season, which can create uncertainty about crop quality and yields. 📉 Winter Months (December – February): Often weaker as fresh harvest supplies enter the market. Prices may dip unless weather shocks disrupt output. 📌 Historical Example: Between June and September 2020, cocoa futures rallied over 20% due to concerns about rainfall and labor issues in the Ivory Coast, even though global demand was still recovering from pandemic restrictions. Thus, traders often rotate into cocoa longs during the summer months, much like how they rotate into corn or soybean trades during North American planting/harvest cycles. 🔹 3. Key Drivers of Cocoa Prices Cocoa is especially sensitive to supply shocks because of its geographic concentration. A few core variables explain most of the large price swings: 1️⃣ Weather Conditions Cocoa pods are delicate and require the right mix of rainfall and sunshine. Too much rain → fungal outbreaks like Black Pod disease. Too little rain → drought stress, smaller pods, and lower yields. West Africa’s climate variability is the single largest driver of year-to-year volatility. 2️⃣ Labor Issues Ivory Coast and Ghana rely heavily on manual labor for cocoa harvesting. Strikes, disputes over wages, or child labor controversies can quickly cut output. Supply disruptions ripple globally since these two countries account for over two-thirds of global cocoa exports. 3️⃣ Political Risk Elections, coups, or civil unrest in cocoa-producing regions can paralyze exports. Example: The 2010 Ivory Coast political crisis disrupted shipping, pushing cocoa futures to multi-decade highs. 4️⃣ Crop Diseases Cocoa plants are vulnerable to pests and diseases. The 2010 Black Pod outbreak alone wiped out 500,000 tonnes of cocoa. The Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) continues to be a structural threat. 5️⃣ Demand Shifts & Health Reports Rising consumer demand for dark chocolate and functional foods (antioxidant-rich products) supports consumption growth. Positive health studies on cocoa’s cardiovascular benefits can boost demand. Conversely, economic downturns often weigh on chocolate consumption as it is seen as a semi-luxury item. 🔹 4. Seasonal Cocoa Trading Calendar Month Key Events Typical Price Behavior Trade Implication Jan–Feb Main crop exports Bearish pressure Avoid longs, look for shorts Mar–Apr Mid-crop harvest Neutral to weak Cautious positioning May–Jun Pre-summer build-up Bullish setup Early long entries Jul–Sep Summer strength, weather risk Strongest seasonal rally Long futures, ETNs Oct–Nov Rainy season risk Volatile Weather-driven trading Dec Fresh harvest supply Often weak Take profits, rotate out 📌 Historical note: Cocoa’s June–September rally has persisted across multiple decades, making it one of the most reliable seasonal plays in the soft commodity space. 🔹 5. Vehicles for Trading Cocoa Traders and investors can access cocoa in several ways: Cocoa Futures (ICE: CC): Standardized contracts, physically delivered, high liquidity. ETNs/ETFs: NIB – iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex ETN → easy exposure without futures account. Chocolate & Confectionery Stocks: Hershey (HSY), Mondelez (MDLZ), Nestlé (NESN.SW), Cheesecake (CAKE) → indirect exposure to cocoa demand. Diversified Agricultural Funds: ETFs that include cocoa alongside coffee, sugar, and cotton. 📌 Conclusion: Best Cocoa Trading Strategy Cocoa’s unique combination of ancient cultural roots, geographic concentration, and modern global demand makes it one of the most fascinating soft commodities to trade. ✅ Technical Edge: The RSI/EMA strategy offers a clear, rules-based approach with ~70% win rate. ✅ Seasonal Edge: Cocoa futures are strongest during summer (June–Sept). ✅ Macro Edge: Watch West African weather, labor strikes, and politics—they are the biggest price movers. ✅ Diversification Edge: Cocoa behaves differently than equities, metals, or energy, making it valuable for portfolio diversification. While cocoa may not get the same attention as gold or crude oil, it remains a highly profitable niche market for traders who understand its seasonal flows and unique risks.
NYMEX:CJ1!Long
by GabrielAmadeusLau
XRP Game PlanXRP Game Plan 📊 Market Sentiment Overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a 0.25% rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting. A weakening USD and increasing global risk appetite are creating favorable conditions for further upside in crypto assets. 📈 Technical Analysis Price rejected the bearish trendline and started moving lower. This indicates to me that price wants to grab more liquidity before expanding higher. However, the HTF order flow remains strongly bullish, so I will only be looking for long setups here. 📌 Game Plan I will be targeting the $2.72 liquidity zone, which holds significant liquidity. Additionally, I will watch for price to test the HTF key level and look for rejection from that area. 🎯 Setup Trigger I will look for a 6H–4H break of structure before entering a trade (with LTF confirmation). 📋 Trade Management Stoploss: 6H–4H swing low confirming the BOS Targets: • TP1: $3.14 • TP2: $3.38 • TP3: $3.67 (All-Time Highs) 💬 Like, follow, and comment if you find this setup valuable! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 SMC Analysis – Bullish Continuation Trade ✅ Context The market already came from a bullish trade that created new highs. Now we see a distribution phase and a strong support zone around 3,638–3,640. ✅ Key points • A ChoCh followed by a short-term BOS downwards, but support is still intact. • A fake out at the support zone cleared liquidity. • Next, a rejection is expected at the same level. ✅ Entry A potential entry is on the retracement of the fake out, once rejection is confirmed. ✅ Projection If support holds, price could target a new Higher High (HH) at 3,675, continuing the bullish momentum. ⚠️ Note: If support breaks, price may dip lower to grab liquidity (3,620–3,625). GOOD LUCK TRADERS… ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
FUBO US LongFuboTV (FUBO) has shown significant growth recently, and there are several reasons for this. In Q2 2025, FuboTV reported EPS of $0.05, which exceeded analysts' forecasts (-$0.05) Revenue of $371.3 million, also above expectations ($353.72 million) The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time at $20.7 million Net loss narrowed to $8 million compared to $25.8 million a year ago Recent partnerships with DAZN (NFL and UEFA Champions League broadcast rights) Debt reduction is slow The number of shares outstanding is increasing multipliers are low due to the described disadvantages OCF and FCF entered the positive area. This will limit further additional share issues. All this has led to improvements in investor sentiment in this issuer. We will join the long
NYSE:FUBOLong
by A3MInvestments
PEPEUSDT: Fresh Breakout, Clean Support, and Meme MomentumPEPEUSDT: Fresh Breakout, Clean Support, and Meme Momentum 🐸📈🔥 This chart builds on the FXPROFESSOR 101 video — where I showed exactly how I draw trendlines and use Fib to map structure. You can watch the full walkthrough there. 🎓 Now let’s talk about the chart 📊 What I See 👀 • Price has just made a fresh breakout above the local resistance ✅ • Support 1 sits strong at 0.000000925 • Main structural support sits lower at 0.000000775 • If momentum holds, next resistance is 0.000001217 • Fibonacci Targets:  • Target 1: 0.000001474  • Target 2: 0.000001823  • Target 3: 0.000002311 These levels were derived using trendline structure + classic Fib overlays, as shown in my educational chart breakdown. But Why PEPE? 🐸🤝 Because people I trust — serious minds, PhDs, and seasoned professionals — are watching this. They believe in memification , in the strength of community-driven assets. And honestly? My chart agrees. PEPE looks technically valid at this stage. Let the chart guide you. But always stay grounded.💡 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Personal Thoughts: From my experience as an AI developer, I’ve learned one truth: AI will never replace human eyes or intuition. It can't help you chart, and it won’t help you feel. Trading is a risky game — play it right, or don’t play at all. Stay sharp. Stay human. 🎯
Long
by FX_Professor
4
BTDR US ( Bitdeer Technologies Group) Long#Invest #US #BTDR #BTC #USDT Bitdeer Technologies Group Demonstrates Growth Through a Combination of Operational Improvements, Industry Trends, and Strategic Initiatives Now, in order: Bitdeer reported a significant 56.8% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025 to $155.6 million. This growth was driven by a 42% increase in mining revenue and mining hardware sales The company increased its monthly bitcoin mining volume by 45.6% in April 2025 compared to March The rise in the price of bitcoin has directly impacted the profitability of Bitdeer's mining operations Tether, the issuer of USDT , increased its stake in Bitdeer to 21.4% in March 2025, and then to over 24% in April The company is actively expanding its energy and data center capacity. 361 MW of capacity has been commissioned since the beginning of 2025, with the total available electrical capacity reaching 1.3 GW. This is expected to increase to 1.6 GW by the end of the year Bitdeer has confirmed that it is on track to reach its own hashrate of 40 EH/s by the end of October 2025, and plans to exceed this figure by the end of the year The company is focusing on the SEALMINER A4 project, which aims to achieve unprecedented chip efficiency of around 5 J/Th Bitdeer plans to set up a production line in the US Bitdeer held 1,502 bitcoins (worth around $170 million at the time) at the end of Q2 2025, up significantly from 113 BTC the year before
NASDAQ:BTDRLong
by A3MInvestments
EUR/USD - Next Week Direction? (Part 2)CMCMARKETS:EURUSD What happened since last week In MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS : - Price respected the 1.1650–1.1620 demand zone and the 4H EMA base, then pushed higher exactly as mapped. We stair-stepped into the 1.1730 region and briefly printed a new swing high near 1.1742 before consolidating. - The catalyst was a broad USD pullback after the Fed’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole. U.S. yields retreated into Friday’s close, and DXY softened, allowing EUR/USD to extend above 1.17. - Headlines reinforced uncertainty around U.S. policy and tariffs, capping USD rebounds. Meanwhile, the ECB remains cautious but less eager to ease than the Fed, keeping policy divergence supportive for EUR/USD. Now, - Fed: Markets lean toward a September cut; the tone is data dependent, with CPI and labor trends key for guidance into the Sep 17–18 FOMC. - ECB: Decision and presser on Sep 11. With inflation near target but growth subdued, guidance is likely careful—still less dovish than the Fed path, which keeps the divergence theme intact. - Net effect: Mild EUR/USD bullish bias while U.S. yields drift lower and the Fed is perceived closer to easing. The trend remains bullish. Why my view still stands: - Policy divergence remains the principal driver: the Fed is closer to easing than the ECB Sep 11. Together with softer U.S. yields, that continues to favor EUR strength on dips. - Technically, buyers keep absorbing retracements into 1.1650–1.1620, and the 4H EMA remains a reliable institutional anchor. What I’m watching next: - Sep 11 ECB: Any pushback against early easing could help EUR. A surprisingly dovish read would cap rallies near 1.18. - U.S. CPI and labor gauges into the Sep 17–18 FOMC: downside CPI surprises or softer labor data likely extend USD weakness; upside surprises risk a squeeze back toward 1.1650. - Tariff/Geopolitical headlines: sources of intraday volatility; manage size around event risk. Bottom line: As long as the pair holds above 1.1650, dips are buyable for a continuation toward 1.1800/1.1829. I will avoid chasing into resistance and prefer pullbacks to 1.1690–1.1705 or 1.1650–1.1660, and I’ll switch stance only on a daily close below 1.1650. So how’s your trade? Mine hit two long take-profits and one tactical short. Remember, consistency beats intensity! Trade with patience, discipline, and confidence in your plan!
Long
by XianW
Long TLT/SPY📌 Bonds Explained: What They Are, How They Work & Key Risks Bonds are one of the oldest and most important financial instruments in global markets. They are used by governments, corporations, and institutions to raise money, and by investors to earn income, diversify portfolios, and manage risk. At their core, a bond is a loan: The issuer (borrower) raises capital by selling bonds. The investor (lender) provides money in exchange for periodic interest payments (coupon payments) and the return of the principal (face value) at maturity. 🔹 1. What is a Bond? When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the issuer. The issuer promises: Interest payments (usually fixed) on a regular schedule (semiannual or annual). Repayment of principal (the original investment amount) when the bond matures. 📌 Example: You invest $1,000,000 in a 10-year bond paying 3% annually (semiannual coupons). Every 6 months, you receive $15,000 in interest payments. At the end of 10 years, you (hopefully) receive back your original $1,000,000 principal. 🔹 2. Why Do Companies and Governments Issue Bonds? Governments → Fund infrastructure, social programs, defense, or refinance existing debt. Corporations → Finance expansion, research, acquisitions, or refinance loans. Municipalities → Build schools, hospitals, and roads. Bonds allow issuers to access large pools of capital without giving up ownership (like stocks). 🔹 3. Why Do Investors Buy Bonds? Stable Income: Regular coupon payments. Capital Preservation: Return of principal at maturity (assuming no default). Diversification: Bonds often behave differently from stocks, balancing risk. Hedging Inflation/Interest Rates: Certain bonds (like TIPS) protect against inflation. Relative Safety: High-quality government bonds are considered safe-haven assets. 🔹 4. Key Types of Bonds Government Bonds Issued by sovereign states. Example: U.S. Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds. Generally low risk, lower yields. Corporate Bonds Issued by companies. Higher yields than government bonds but higher risk. Municipal Bonds Issued by local governments or agencies. Often come with tax benefits for investors. High-Yield (Junk) Bonds Issued by lower-credit issuers. Higher potential returns, but much riskier. Inflation-Protected Bonds Coupon/principal linked to inflation. Example: U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). 🔹 5. Three Main Risks of Investing in Bonds Even though bonds are often seen as “safe,” they carry risks that investors must understand: 1️⃣ Credit Risk (Default Risk) The issuer may fail to pay coupons or repay the principal. Higher with corporate bonds and emerging market government bonds. Mitigated by credit ratings (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch). 📌 Example: If a company defaults, you may lose part or all of your investment. 2️⃣ Interest Rate Risk Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates rise, existing bond prices fall (since new bonds offer better yields). If you sell before maturity, you could face a loss. 📌 Example: You bought a 10-year bond at 3%. A year later, rates rise to 5%. Your bond’s market value falls, because investors prefer newer bonds paying higher coupons. 3️⃣ Inflation Risk (Purchasing Power Risk) Even if you hold the bond to maturity, rising inflation erodes the real value of your returns. A 3% coupon loses attractiveness if inflation rises to 6%. 📌 Example: Your bond pays $30,000 annually, but inflation pushes up costs by $40,000 per year → you are effectively losing purchasing power. 🔹 6. Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds: Debt, fixed income, contractual obligation, lower risk, limited upside. Stocks: Equity ownership, dividends (optional), higher risk, unlimited upside. In a company bankruptcy, bondholders are paid before shareholders. 🔹 7. How Investors Use Bonds in Portfolios Income generation: Retirees and pension funds rely on coupon payments. Diversification: Bonds often rise when stocks fall, reducing portfolio volatility. Risk management: Safe-haven bonds (like Treasuries) act as “insurance” during crises. Speculation: Traders can bet on interest rate moves via bond futures and ETFs. 🔹 8. Bonds vs. Stocks: The TLT–SPY Correlation One of the most widely followed relationships in global markets is the correlation between: TLT → iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (tracks long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds). SPY → SPDR S&P 500 ETF (tracks U.S. equities). 📈 Historical Relationship Over the past two decades, TLT and SPY have often moved in opposite directions. (The Correlation between SPY/TLT often hovers around 0.) Why? When stocks sell off, investors typically seek safety in Treasuries, pushing bond prices up (yields down). This negative correlation makes bonds a powerful diversifier in equity-heavy portfolios (60/40). 📌 Example: 2008 Financial Crisis → SPY plunged ~37%, while long-dated Treasuries (TLT) surged as investors fled to safety. March 2020 COVID Crash → SPY fell ~34% peak-to-trough, TLT spiked ~20% as the Fed cut rates and investors piled into Treasuries. 🐂 Strategy #1 (MA): Buy SPY when TLT crosses below the 95 MA. Sell SPY when TLT crosses above the 95 MA. 🔄 But the Correlation Can Shift In inflationary environments, bonds and stocks can fall together. 2022 is a perfect example: Inflation spiked → Fed hiked rates aggressively. TLT dropped ~30% (yields surged). SPY also fell ~19%. Both asset classes sold off simultaneously, breaking the hedge. 🐂 Strategy #2 (Re-Balancing): Buy TLT at the close of the seventh last trading day of the month. Sell TLT at the close of the last trading day of the month. Sell TLT short at the close of the month. Cover TLT at the close of the seventh trading day of the month. Higher Returns after rate hikes. 📊 Why This Matters for Investors In normal times: TLT acts as a counterweight to SPY, smoothing portfolio volatility. In inflationary shocks: Both can decline, reducing diversification benefits. Lesson: Don’t assume bonds will always hedge equities — context (inflation, Fed policy, growth cycles) matters. 📌 Practical Uses of the TLT–SPY Correlation Portfolio Diversification A 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) relies on the negative correlation. Works best when inflation is low and stable. Risk-On / Risk-Off Gauge If both SPY and TLT rise → markets are calm, liquidity flows into both risk and safety. If SPY falls while TLT rises → classic risk-off move (flight to safety). If both fall → inflation or policy tightening environment (no safe haven). Trading Signals Divergence trades: When SPY rallies but TLT also rallies strongly, it may signal equity rally exhaustion (risk-off brewing). Macro hedge: Long TLT positions can offset downside risk in SPY-heavy portfolios — but only in disinflationary or deflationary shocks. 🔹 9. EWJ–TLT Correlation: Japan Equities vs. U.S. Treasuries EWJ → Tracks Japanese equities (large & mid-cap companies). TLT → Tracks U.S. long-dated Treasuries. Unlike the classic SPY–TLT inverse correlation, the EWJ–TLT relationship is more complex, shaped by: Global risk sentiment (risk-on/risk-off flows). Currency effects (USD/JPY exchange rate). Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment (BoJ policy). 📈 Historical Tendencies 1️⃣ Risk-Off Periods (Global crises → flight to safety): TLT rallies (U.S. Treasuries bid). EWJ often falls, as Japanese equities are highly cyclical and export-driven. Negative correlation dominates. 📌 Example: 2008 Crisis → TLT surged; EWJ plunged with global equities. 2020 COVID Crash → Same pattern: safety flows to Treasuries, Japanese stocks sold. 2️⃣ Risk-On Periods (Liquidity, global growth optimism): EWJ rallies with global equities. TLT may drift lower (yields rising on stronger growth). Correlation weak to moderately negative. 📌 Example: 2016–2018: Global growth rebound → EWJ rose, TLT fell as U.S. yields climbed. 3️⃣ Currency Channel (USD/JPY) Japanese equities (EWJ) are sensitive to the yen. A stronger USD/JPY (weaker yen) boosts exporters (good for EWJ). TLT rallies often coincide with USD weakness (yields down, dollar down), which can hurt Japanese exporters, adding another layer of inverse correlation. 🔄 Shifts Over Time Long-term average correlation: Mildly negative (similar to SPY–TLT, but weaker). During inflation shocks (2022): Correlation turned positive at times: TLT fell as U.S. yields spiked. EWJ also struggled due to global tightening & yen weakness. Both moved down together, breaking the hedge. 📊 Why EWJ–TLT Matters Global Diversification Check: Investors often think Japanese equities diversify U.S. equities, but they can be just as cyclical. Adding TLT creates the real hedge. Risk-Off Signal: When both EWJ and TLT rise, it may indicate global liquidity easing (rare but bullish). Currency Overlay: Always factor USD/JPY → sometimes EWJ’s move is more about currency than equities. 🐂 Strategy #3 (EWJ): When Japanese stocks are above their 150-day moving average, go long TLT (US long-term Treasury). When the average is below the 150-day average, stay out. The correlation between TLT and EWJ can serve as a breath signal. 📌 Conclusion: Bonds as the Foundation of Finance Bonds are the backbone of the global financial system, connecting borrowers (governments, corporations) with lenders (investors). ✅ Bonds provide regular income and capital preservation. ✅ They carry risks: credit, interest rate, and inflation. ✅ They are essential for diversification and risk management. ✅The TLT–SPY correlation is dynamic. Historically negative, providing diversification. In inflationary shocks (like 2022), the correlation turns positive, breaking the hedge. ✅ EWJ–TLT is a Global Macro Hedge, But Fragile. Usually inverse: Risk-off = TLT up, EWJ down. Sometimes aligned: Inflation shocks or synchronized global tightening → both down. Currency filter essential: USD/JPY often mediates the relationship. This makes EWJ–TLT correlation a powerful barometer of global macro regimes: Disinflationary slowdowns → Strong hedge. Inflationary crises → Hedge breaks. For investors, understanding bonds is crucial, even if you primarily trade equities or commodities, because bond yields influence everything: stock valuations, mortgage rates, and even currency markets.
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by GabrielAmadeusLau
Gold on the eve of interest rate cut: opportunity or trap?Gold Technical Analysis: Further analyzing gold's trend from a technical perspective, since its decline from the 3675 high, the daily chart has failed to show a clear unilateral direction. Instead, it has exhibited a pattern of alternating negative and positive fluctuations with narrowing amplitudes. Furthermore, the K-line chart continues to trade above the unilateral moving average. This pattern clearly points to a period of consolidation within a bullish trend, rather than a trend reversal. This week's daily chart should focus on two key support levels: the 3600 area represents a short-term watershed between strength and weakness. If broken, the market could shift from strong fluctuations to weak corrections. The 3500 area represents a medium-term bull-bear reversal line. A breach of this level could trigger a fundamental trend reversal. Therefore, 3600 should be the primary defensive line. The 4-hour chart shows more volatile gold: the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, and the moving averages are highly converging. This indicates a complete lack of momentum needed for a unilateral rise or fall. For the time being, the 3615-3660 range is the preferred range. Based on cyclical patterns, the probability of a breakout of the Bollinger Bands on Monday and Tuesday is extremely low before the bands open. Therefore, high-certainty trading can be conducted on these two trading days around 3615 (lower support) - 3660 (upper resistance), without excessive expectations for a breakout outside the range. Based on real-time trends, gold has completed a short-term correction since the opening. Based on the logic of oscillation, long positions can be established within the day based on support near the lower edge of the range: enter near 3625-3620 (aligned with the lower edge of the 4-hour range), targeting upward fluctuations. Focus on the 3650-3660 area (where the upper edge of the 4-hour range overlaps with key resistance on the daily chart). If the price rebounds to the 3660-3655 range and finds resistance, a small position can be used to test short positions, targeting a pullback to the 3635-3630 area, forming a closed-loop buy-low-sell-high strategy within the range. Note that after the adjustment, the current price is in the middle of the range. Direct entry is not recommended for now. Wait until the price approaches the -3625-3620 support level or the 3655-3660 resistance level before placing orders based on K-line stabilization/pressure signals to improve trading accuracy. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is to primarily buy on dips, supplemented by higher rebounds. Focus on the 3655-3665 resistance level on the upside, and the 3625-3615 support level on the downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel