EURUSD H2: Bearish Until Proven OtherwiseEURUSD reacted precisely from the H4 bearish order block highlighted in my previous analysis and delivered the expected bearish move.
Today, my primary focus is the bearish FVG sitting above current price. If price retraces into that imbalance and delivers lower-timeframe confirmation, it could provide another opportunity to continue targeting lower prices.
However, there are two important factors preventing aggressive positioning today.
First, it's NFP day. Non-Farm Payrolls is one of the most volatile economic releases of the month and often creates unpredictable price action. For that reason, I do not trade before the release and prefer to let the market reveal its intentions afterward.
Second, EURUSD is currently showing SMT divergence against DXY at the lows. While my higher-timeframe bias remains bearish, this SMT suggests that downside continuation may not be as straightforward as it appears.
For now, the bearish narrative remains valid, but I will be managing risk more conservatively than usual.
Conditions for continuation:
Retracement into the bearish FVG
Lower-timeframe confirmation
Rejection and displacement to the downside
Targets:
Sell-side liquidity below current lows
Lower draw-on-liquidity levels if bearish continuation develops
Even if today's bearish scenario fails, that information itself will be valuable. The SMT at the lows may become a key clue for reassessing higher-timeframe bias next week.
Short
