Following the Plan, The Winner EURUSD

DollarSaenz Updated   
OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
In the beginning of the year, before I start trading, I conduct my review and research and analysis (R/A) on what I am going to trade. For the EURUSD, this is what I put down on December 31, 2022, 12:33est

EUR: the ECB is looking to raise rates to fight off double digit inflation. They might have to raise rates quicker than they are thinking to fight inflation. There is also the Russia/Ukraine issue that is going on, with the EU looking to cap Russian Oil. Price is pushing higher, which I think will be able to hit 1.10 at least. Eventually I think price will push lower as the economy stagnates and a possibly recession is induced. I am thinking of getting in this pair, but I am going to wait until price pushes to 1.10 and then decide from there. If the FED diverges with the ECB, the same might happen like in 2015, where price starts pushing higher as the FED starts to wind down rate hikes and possibly reduce rates, which the ECB pushes rates higher. I am thinking that possibly at the end of the year price might be around 1.15, but that is dependent on what happens with the EU economy.

On March 04, 2023, 09:34est, this is what I had jotted down:

EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot.

On March 26, 2023, 11:16est:

EUR: the ECB is hawkish and is will to raise rates further. But with the banking issues and their economy tethering on the brink of a great recession like style as the US, I am not sure if they are going to eventually pull bank. If the data in the US mints higher, then it will be interesting to see where price on there goes. Traders and investors always want to move too safe havens, so if the data does mint higher, it is likely that price will push lower. I am thinking that the EUR might be able to hit the 1.10 lvl, which will likely become a strong resistance.

I stopped trading for a while due to training and other things that came up. But in July 28, 2023, 23:42, I conducted a rollup and on the EUR/USD I typed up:

EUR: getting into a short position and holding might be the best bet. The Euro Zone compared to the US economy, is one sided, with the US economy winning considerably. GDP is at 0% (QoQ), unemployment at 6.5%, wages is growing though, inflation at 5.5%, balance sheet is shrinking which means banks and businesses and so on are losing capital and having to rein things in, interest rate is at 4.25%, industrial and manufacturing is negative and condensing, retail sales is showing that people are not spending, and housing is pushing lower. The Euro Zone economy has stagnated and seems to be going through what the US went through in the 70’s. So this might come to fruition and price might be able to hit the support at 1.06 and possibly parity. If there is a goal to dethrone the USD, it might take awhile if the other currencies aren’t able to prop themselves up.

So.......... what I see is that the EURUSD is moving how I've been speculating and following through with what I've been thinking. With the FED thinking about pausing on rates but keeping interest rates at current lvls for a while and the ECB looking to pause on rates hikes while inflation is still high, this could be enough of a mixture to push the EURUSD lower. The 1.10 lvl is causing a lot of issues for price to push lower, but I think overall, price may have enough momentum to push to the 1.08. I have a short position on this pair to see if I am correct or not. If price does move against me and does push higher, I'll get into a hedge and see about reducing risk.

Do you own due diligence. This is the way I trade and my own R/A for education purposes. Trading has a lot of risk, so protect yourselves and trade your own way. Have some great trading out there.
Things are looking good for the EUR pushing lower and the momentum of price pushing lower is good. This pair is following the plans I have set out and what I have been thinking. Catalysts are happening according to what I have speculated so this is a good pair to keep sticking too. With Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating that the FED will continue to work on bringing inflation down to the 2% lvl as well as keeping the thought of hiking interest rates as a possibility, this is great for the USD. The ECB President Lagarde, is also on the side of getting inflation reigned in to the 2% lvl, but she has a very difficult task at doing that. The EZ economy isn't doing well and isn't in that Goldilocks arena as the US is in. But either way, things are following along and my price target is 1.05.
I am still thinking price is going to push lower. There might be some divergence between the ECB and FED as the FED is stopping with its rate hikes and there is a chance that the FED might start reducing rates in May of 2024. If this is the case and the ECB stays with hiking rates, then price might push above the 1.10 lvl (which it looks like it might as the 1.10 lvl was tested a couple of times). I am not too sure price could push all the way up to the 1.20, but maybe the 1.15 lvl. It is highly likely that price might be able to break parity again, may a few years from now. There are thoughts that in 2024 there will be some kind of economic storm coming, but I am not too sure about it.
The EUR is at a contention point. The FED Rate Decision will decide for now where price is going to move. A decision giving the hint of meeting expectations that the FED will hold rates will push the EUR lower. I am thinking to the 1.07 lvl and if that excessive, maybe the 1.06. If the FED does surprise on the dovish side and gives the hint of sticking to 3 rate hikes for the year, then price will likely push to the 1.10 lvl. Not too sure if price will be able to hit the 1.15, but the 1.12 looks reasonable.


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