GOLD: Bullish, But Retracing! Short Term Sell Opportunity!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Oct. 27 - 31st.
Gold is still bullish, the current pullback it's in notwithstanding. Waiting patiently for valid buy setups is the sure way to go.
That being said, there is sell setup that could present an short-term opportunity. The Daily -FVG is currently holding price in check. Should price return to it and it continues to hold, a valid sell opportunity could present itself.
Be careful, as it is counter-trend. They can be lower-probability.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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GC1! (Gold Futures)
XAUUSD Best level to sell is this.Gold (XAUUSD) has turned bearish, at least on the short-term, as it broke below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in a month and is headed for its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Having made a Double Top at the start of the downtrend, the pattern that seems to be emerging is a Channel Down, with the last such formation seen in April - May.
So far the 4H RSI sequences between the two patterns are identical, so we expect a rebound now, which can give us the most optimal level to short again near the top of the Channel Down.
A break above 0.786 invalidates this, but as long as it holds, our Target will be the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 3920 just like on May 15, which also hit its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
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XAUUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Deep Dive AnalysisTraders, gear up for a pivotal week in Gold! As of the close at 4,112.84 on Oct 25th , XAUUSD is at a critical juncture. This analysis blends classic theory with modern indicators for intraday swings and positional trades. Bulls and bears are in a fierce battle ⚔️.
The stage is set for a significant volatility expansion. The key is to identify the dominant auction.
🎯 1D & 4H: The Swing Trade Panorama (Swing Bias)
The higher frames dictate the primary trend. The 1D chart shows a potential completion of an Elliott Wave corrective pattern (ABC) , suggesting a new impulsive wave up may be imminent.
Dow Theory : Higher highs & higher lows remain intact on the 1D, confirming the primary uptrend. ✅
Wyckoff Theory : We appear to be in a 'Spring' or 'Sign of Strength' phase after a re-accumulation period around the 4,080-4,100 zone.
Ichimoku Cloud : Price is trading above the Kumo (cloud) on 1D, a bullish bias. The Tenkan-sen (blue line) is a key dynamic support.
Key S&R : Major support rests at 4,080 (previous resistance, 50 EMA). Resistance is at the recent high of 4,140 .
A decisive 4H close above 4,130 could trigger a Bullish Breakout 🚀 targeting 4,180-4,200. Conversely, a break below 4,080 on high volume could see a drop to 4,040.
⏰ Intraday Focus: 1H, 30M, 15M, 5M (Intraday Bias)
For intraday action, lower timeframes offer precision entries.
Harmonic & Gann Theory : A clear Bullish Bat Pattern has potentially completed on the 1H chart. The PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) aligns perfectly with the 4,100-4,105 support. Gann's 50% retracement level from the last swing up also converges here.
Bollinger Bands (20,2) : On the 1H/4H, price is hugging the upper band, indicating strong momentum. A squeeze on the 30M chart suggests a volatility expansion is due.
RSI (14) : On the 1H, RSI is in the 55-60 range, showing healthy momentum without being overbought. Watch for bearish divergence on a new high as a reversal signal.
VWAP & EMA Confluence : The 20 and 50 EMAs are providing dynamic support on pullbacks. For day trades, the VWAP on the 15M/5M charts will be your best friend for trend alignment. Long above, short below.
🚦Trade Plan: Entries, Exits & Risk Management
Identifying reversals is key. Use Japanese Candlesticks at key S&R levels. A bullish engulfing or morning star pattern at the 4,100 support, confirmed by a rising volume spike, is a high-probability long signal.
Swing Long Entry : On a 4H close > 4,130, or a pullback to 4,100-4,105 with bullish confirmation.
Swing Short Entry : On a 1D close < 4,080, targeting 4,040.
Intraday Long : Buy on a bounce from VWAP/20 EMA on the 15M chart with RSI > 50.
Intraday Short : Sell on a rejection from the 4,125-4,130 resistance with a bearish RSI divergence.
Stop-Loss : Always 15-20 pips below/above your entry trigger candle.
💡The Bottom Line:
The bullish structure is favored as long as 4,080 holds. The confluence of Harmonic patterns, Wyckoff accumulation, and bullish Ichimoku alignment points to a potential leg higher. However, respect the levels. A break below support will invalidate the bullish thesis.
Track these charts live:
1D:
4H:
1H:
30M:
15M:
5M:
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
GOLD recovers ahead of US CPI data, key data dayArticle summary:
“Gold rebounded in the Asian session on October 24, trading around $4,139/ounce, as safe-haven flows surged amid renewed geopolitical tensions and investors awaited September US CPI data, which could determine the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moves in the short term.
The recovery momentum was reinforced by expectations of an early Fed rate cut, along with the impact of Washington’s new oil sanctions on Russia and escalating US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, technically, gold held support around $4,100, suggesting the medium-term uptrend remains intact.”
OANDA:XAUUSD maintained its recovery momentum in the Asian session on October 24, trading around $4,139/ounce, after rising sharply in the Thursday session thanks to the return of safe-haven flows amid fresh geopolitical developments. The move came as global markets await key US inflation data (September CPI), which is seen as key to shaping the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the short term.
Economic data
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its September Consumer Price Index (CPI) tonight.
Forecasts show the US core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month and remaining at 3.1% year-on-year, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures despite signs of cooling energy prices.
The market has all but priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its policy meeting next week. In a low-interest-rate environment, gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to benefit from lower opportunity costs.
“Gold’s goal is to continue its rally ahead of the CPI data,” says Valeria Bednarik of FXStreet.
Political and Geopolitical Events
Gold prices rebounded after the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian energy companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This is the first sanctions of President Donald Trump's second term and is seen as a significant escalation in the pressure campaign against Moscow.
According to Jorge Leon, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, "This move marks a major and unprecedented escalation in Washington's campaign against Russia."
The sanctions could impact global oil supplies, indirectly increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge against risks in an uncertain environment.
In addition, US-China tensions have also resurfaced as the White House considers restricting China’s use of US software, retaliating against Beijing’s rare earth export controls and raising port fees for US-flagged ships. These signals reinforce the “selective risk-off” sentiment in global markets.
In short, the current developments suggest that gold is repositioning itself in a medium-term bull cycle, as the market simultaneously assesses geopolitical risks and the prospect of Fed easing.
If CPI data reinforces the case for a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting, gold could retain its appeal as a key safe-haven asset in the fourth quarter.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Technical analysis:
Gold prices are maintaining a technical recovery after a strong correction from the peak of 4,379 USD/ounce. Currently, the price is trading around 4,118 USD, approaching the Fibonacci support zone of 0.618 (4,110 USD), an important milestone to determine the short-term supply-demand balance.
On the daily chart, gold is still in the medium-term uptrend channel formed since mid-August, with the MA21 average line (4,000 USD area) continuing to act as a dynamic support base. RSI has reached the 50 area and is showing signs of forming a slight bottom, reflecting the weakening selling momentum.
In terms of patterns, the candlestick cluster of the last 2 days shows a "hammer - recovery confirmation" pattern, suggesting that demand is reappearing at the technical bottom.
Trend Assessment:
If the $4,100 zone holds, there is a high probability that gold will enter a bullish consolidation phase towards the $4,200 mark. However, a break of the $4,000 zone would open up a deeper correction towards the $3,950 area.
In the context of lower interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions that have not yet subsided, the medium-term trend of gold remains bullish, although the current recovery is more technical than a fundamental breakout.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4221 - 4219⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4225
→Take Profit 1 4213
↨
→Take Profit 2 4207
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4057 - 4059⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4053
→Take Profit 1 4065
↨
→Take Profit 2 4071
GOLD cooling down, correction or signal of new cycle?Summary
“After three consecutive sessions of declines, gold is experiencing a short-term correction after a rally that has lasted more than two months. Despite falling nearly 6% from its recent peak, the medium-term uptrend remains solid as prices remain above the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce. This move reflects a technical cooling of an overbought market, rather than a fundamental reversal.
With the Fed expected to cut interest rates before the end of the year, geopolitical tensions lingering and the trend of “de-dollarization” spreading, gold continues to play a central role in the global safe-haven portfolio. Investors are now closely watching the price reaction around the $4,000 region, the balance point between short-term profit-taking pressure and medium-term accumulation momentum, while the technical outlook still favors a recovery trend if this support level holds.”
OANDA:XAUUSD corrects after 3-day decline, medium-term uptrend remains strong
Gold has fallen for three consecutive days, marking a technical correction after a long rally. Spot gold was hovering around $4,080/ounce on Tuesday morning, nearly 6% below its recent peak, reflecting a necessary pullback in an overbought market.
The decline comes amid global markets being cautious about the latest developments in US-China trade talks and unclear signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Despite short-term pressure, gold remains a central part of the safe-haven portfolio, especially as geopolitical risks increase and major currencies face “soft devaluation” pressure.
Comment: “After a period of excessive growth, gold is correcting like an overstretched spring. The fact that the price is still holding above the $4,000 mark shows that this is a technical cooling process, not a fundamental reversal. The need for safe haven and defensive trades in the Dollar still exists.”
Gold has risen more than 55% year-to-date since mid-August, boosted by expectations of at least a 25 basis point cut by the Fed before the end of the year, along with a trend to hedge against inflation and widening budget deficits. The stability of the US dollar and ETF inflows supported gold prices, while silver and platinum recorded consecutive losses due to profit-taking pressure.
Traders are also focusing on new political-trade signals. US President Trump expressed optimism about a “good deal” at the upcoming meeting with Asian leaders, but admitted that a delay scenario is still possible. This situation has made the market sentiment “cautious but realistically optimistic,”.
The current decline reflects a technical correction, not a trend reversal. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates, persistent geopolitical tensions and the “de-dollarization” trend of some economies, gold remains a pillar in the global safe-haven structure. Investors should monitor the price reaction around the $4,000 mark, the balance point between short-term profit-taking and medium-term accumulation.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Technical Outlook: Bulls Keep the Initiated Around $4,000
Gold prices are experiencing a short-term but strong correction, after a long rally since mid-August. On the daily chart, the decline has brought the price to test the important support cluster around $4,000–$4,050/oz, corresponding to the Fibonacci 0.618 zone and the MA50 average, which acts as a key “psychological milestone” for the bulls.
The RSI has retreated to near the neutral level of 50, reflecting a temporary cooling rather than a trend reversal. The major trend structure remains clearly bullish, as evidenced by the intact upward price channel.
If the $4,000 zone is maintained, gold is likely to enter an accumulation-recovery phase, with the nearest resistance zones at $4,160–$4,180 (Fibo 0.5) and $4,210–$4,275 (Fibo 0.382–0.236). Conversely, a loss of the $4,000 mark would trigger deeper profit-taking towards the extended support zone of $3,950.
The current correction suggests the market is consolidating its medium-term uptrend, with no signs of breaking the trend. Once sentiment stabilizes around the $4,000 threshold, new buying pressure is likely to return, especially if there are supportive signals from US economic data or expectations of a Fed rate cut.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4231 - 4229⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4235
→Take Profit 1 4223
↨
→Take Profit 2 4217
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4001 - 4003⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3997
→Take Profit 1 4009
↨
→Take Profit 2 4015
Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy🏆 Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy 🏆
Gold just gave us the pullback we’ve been waiting for. After an incredible vertical run to $4,400, price has tapped right back into long-term trend support — exactly where past rallies have launched from.
Zoom out on the weekly channel and it’s clear:
Momentum spikes look scary, but historically they’ve reset just before the next leg up.
Volume confirms conviction — this isn’t a fade; it’s a reload.
On the 4H chart, buyers are already defending the trendline like clockwork.
On the 15M, we’re seeing the first signs of stabilization.
💡 My take:
This isn’t the time to panic — it’s the time to position.
“Buy fear, sell greed” wasn’t written for stocks; it was written for gold.
🎯 Watch zone: $4,000–$4,050 — that’s my reload range.
Next resistance: $4,400 → $4,800 if the structure holds.
📈 I’m buying the dip. Are you brave enough to?
#Gold #GC1 #Comex #Futures #BuyTheDip #Macro #Commodities #TrendFollowing #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold Update 22OCT2025: Wave 4 Correction is in Progress Sooner or later, both overbought conditions and bearish divergence tend to play out — and we’re seeing that now.
Gold just experienced a massive and surprising sell-off, with many stop-losses triggered.
The price dropped $300 in a single day, compared to its usual $50 range.
This likely marks the start of wave 4, as expected. Price briefly touched the bottom of the uptrend channel and bounced off quickly.
However, wave 4 is rarely straightforward.
It can take many corrective forms, such as a triangle or sideways consolidation.
It also tends to be larger than wave 2 and should become clearly visible on the chart.
The target range for wave 4 remains $3,750–$4,000. While $4,000 has already been touched, the corrective structure isn’t fully formed yet.
We should wait for wave 4 to fully develop before setting any expectations for wave 5.
Gold Volatility Surges Above $4000Gold's selloff on Tuesday was its fifth most bearish day's trade since 1970 - according to spot prices from LSEG. Clearly this is a significant event, especially when we consider it occurred at its record high. Let's take a closer look at technical levels.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
GOLD fell nearly $300, the biggest one-day drop since 2021The precious metals market witnessed a sharp decline in the trading session on Tuesday (October 21), when the spot gold price fell more than 5%, marking the sharpest decline in 4 years. This correction came after many consecutive weeks of increase, when gold continuously set new peaks and reached overbought levels on technical indicators.
As of the time of recording, the spot gold price decreased by 5.21% to 4,129.05 USD/ounce, after falling below the 4,100 USD/ounce mark at one point, meaning a loss of nearly 300 USD compared to the highest level of the day. Previously, on Monday, gold had peaked at about 4,381.52 USD/ounce, before turning down nearly 3.8%.
Strong Dollar Slows Gains
The stronger US Dollar has made dollar-denominated gold more expensive, weighing on demand.
Weakening safe-haven sentiment has also contributed to the sell-off. Expectations of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to ease trade tensions have dampened demand for the precious metal. In addition, the peak gold buying season in India, one of the world’s largest consumer markets, has ended, dampening physical demand.
Markets lose position data, volatility soars
The partial U.S. government shutdown has left traders without access to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly speculative positioning report, data used to measure hedge fund participation in gold and silver contracts. The lack of positioning data makes the market more sensitive, especially when speculative buying increases during volatile times.
The volatility has pushed short-term volatility in the precious metal to its highest level in months. Options trading volume on the world’s largest gold ETF exceeded 2 million contracts for two consecutive sessions, a new record, suggesting investors are rushing to hedge or take advantage of volatility to seek profits.
Experts warn of the risk of a deeper correction
According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists, gold ETF holdings are still below historic highs, suggesting there is still room for a bull run. However, they warn that “every rally has its limits,” and that excessive speculative buying often turns into selling pressure when economic data improves.
“If upcoming economic reports show a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, a deeper correction in gold is entirely possible,” the report said.
Silver also under pressure after a strong run
Silver, the metal, has risen nearly 80% since the start of the year thanks to tight supplies and rising investment demand that has followed gold’s slide. The widening price gap between London and New York has prompted traders to move the metal to the UK to ease supply and demand pressures.
According to exchange data, treasuries linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded the largest silver withdrawals since February, while inventories in New York continued to fall, reflecting a restructuring of global supply amid the market correction.
In short, after a long rally and high expectations, the gold market is entering a “necessary cooling” phase. While the long-term trend is still supported by geopolitical risks and loose monetary policy, short-term volatility is likely to remain high as the market reassesses yield expectations, inflation and the health of the US economy.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
The daily chart of gold shows that after a strong increase to the peak around 4,380 - 4,400 USD/ounce, the price has entered a rather deep technical correction phase, touching the Fibonacci support zone of 0.618 around 4,110 USD/ounce corresponding to the EMA21 line.
The strong bearish candle has been partially absorbed, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening and the downward momentum is showing signs of slowing down.
The RSI indicator has escaped the overbought zone and is approaching the neutral level (50), reflecting the state of re-accumulation after the correction. As long as the price remains above the 4,036 - 4,110 USD/ounce zone, the medium-term bullish structure has not been broken.
Overall, gold is in a "breathing" phase after a steep increase, and if it holds support at $4,110/ounce, the prospect of returning to the main uptrend in the coming weeks is very positive.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4231 - 4229⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4235
→Take Profit 1 4223
↨
→Take Profit 2 4217
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3949 - 3951⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3945
→Take Profit 1 3957
↨
→Take Profit 2 3963
GOLD (XAU/USD) Game Plan GOLD (XAU/USD) Game Plan
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment for GOLD remains extremely bullish, driven primarily by central bank accumulation.
Since 2023, global central banks — led by China — have been buying gold aggressively, creating a long-term demand base.
With the FED preparing to initiate QE while inflation remains elevated, risk assets like GOLD are expected to outperform as USD (DXY) weakens.
This macro setup builds a powerful bullish narrative that continues to favor long exposure on gold.
📈 Technical Analysis
GOLD has rallied for nine consecutive weeks since mid-August, reaching overbought RSI levels.
Currently, price is showing signs of retracement and consolidation, suggesting an accumulation phase may form before the next impulsive move.
The Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $4010, just below the HTF bullish trendline, acts as a critical support area where a potential deviation and bounce may occur.
📌 Game Plan
I expect GOLD to retrace toward the HTF trendline and Weekly FVG ($4017).
A deviation and bounce from this zone could trigger a new bullish leg.
However, I anticipate 1–2 weeks of accumulation before continuation.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
GOLD surges on political uncertainty and Fed easing expectationsOANDA:XAUUSD climbed to a fresh record high in the first trading session of the week, as expectations of an extended rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a wave of safe-haven assets continued to strengthen the rally.
Spot gold ended the session on Monday (October 20) up 2.47%, equivalent to $104.81, at $4,355.72/ounce, its biggest one-day gain since July. The recovery came after a correction last weekend, when the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell two basis points to 3.991%, dragging the USD down. The US real yield, a measure reflecting the opportunity cost of holding gold, also fell to 1.723%.
The rally suggests the market is “repositioning expectations” as the Fed is expected to maintain its easy policy for the rest of the year. Investors now see a 96% chance of another 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025, according to CME FedWatch data.
In addition to monetary policy factors, the political picture in Washington has also contributed to the demand for gold. The US government entered the 20th day of a partial shutdown, with Congress still unable to reach a budget deal. This situation has delayed important economic data, including the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), clouding the economic picture ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week.
Global geopolitical risks continue to play a central role. Fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has flared up again, threatening to unravel the recently signed ceasefire. Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are set to resume in Malaysia as the November 10 trade war truce deadline approaches. US President Donald Trump is expected to increase pressure on Beijing to cut fentanyl exports and resume soybean imports.
Personally, I believe that the combination of political, interest rate and global trade concerns is pushing gold back to the center of the international financial market. Gold prices could approach $4,500/ounce in the short term, and the possibility of reaching $5,000/ounce next year if political tensions continue to escalate.
With a gain of more than 62% since the beginning of the year, gold is currently the best performing asset among major commodities. The main drivers are strong central bank buying, the trend of de-dollarization of foreign exchange reserves and capital flows into Western gold ETFs.
Amid widespread political uncertainty and a dovish US monetary policy, gold appears to be resuming its historic role as not just a safe haven, but a measure of global confidence in the current financial system.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold's medium-term uptrend remains strong within the uptrend channel, despite a short-term correction around the historical peak of $4,379/ounce. The candle on October 21 showed slight technical selling pressure after a long rally, but the price structure is still above the 21-day moving average (MA21) and has not broken the main uptrend channel.
The Fibonacci correction zones show that the important support levels are located at:
• 4,289 – 4,213 USD/ounce (Fibo 0.236–0.382): the nearest support zone, where buying pressure can return.
• 4,161 USD (Fibo 0.5): the balance level, which also coincides with the previous short-term bottom.
• 4,110 USD (Fibo 0.618): the important support level to preserve the medium-term uptrend.
The RSI is still above 70, reflecting the market in the overbought zone but there is no clear bearish divergence signal. This shows that there is a possibility of a short-term technical correction, but there is not enough sign for a trend reversal.
Overall, the main uptrend is still dominant, with the next target at 4,454 - 4,527 USD/ounce (Fibo extension zone 0.618 - 0.786).
If the price breaks through the 4,110 USD area, the bullish pattern will be temporarily invalidated, then we should observe the reaction around MA21 (~3,940 USD).
Comment: Gold is still in the "trend stability phase" with corrections considered as opportunities for re-accumulation, not reversal signals. Short-term investors should take advantage of technical recovery to optimize entry points, while closely controlling the risk zone below 4,110 USD.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4452 - 4450⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4456
→Take Profit 1 4444
↨
→Take Profit 2 4438
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4300 - 4302⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4296
→Take Profit 1 4308
↨
→Take Profit 2 4314
GOLD leveled off after its strongest rally since 1979OANDA:XAUUSD Falls After Trump's 'Softening' Comments on China
Gold Spot gold fell nearly 2% on Friday (October 17), ending a long rally after hitting a new record, as a stronger US dollar and President Donald Trump's soft remarks dampened demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold ended the session at $4,250.91 an ounce, down 1.74%, after peaking at $4,379.94 earlier in the session. The US dollar index rose 0.2%, making gold more expensive for foreign investors. Earlier, gold recorded its biggest weekly gain since the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008.
Trump Calms Trade Tensions, Gold Loses Safe-haven Momentum
Speaking at the White House, Trump admitted that 100% tariffs on Chinese goods were “unsustainable” and confirmed plans to meet President Xi Jinping in the near future. The comments quickly changed market sentiment, easing expectations of an escalation in the trade conflict and pulling safe-haven demand away from gold.
FXStreet commented: “Gold prices fell about 2% from a historic peak as Trump eased his tone with Beijing. The recovery in risk sentiment kept the dollar strong and gold under pressure.”
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 3 basis points to 4.01%, while real yields rose nearly 2.5 basis points to 1.72%, further pressuring non-yielding assets like gold.
Medium-term outlook remains positive
Despite the short-term correction, gold prices have risen more than 64% year-to-date, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle. The market is now pricing in a 25 basis point cut at its October meeting, and another in December.
HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 an ounce, and expects prices to reach $5,000 by 2026.
Some fresh concerns about credit risks emerged after two regional US banks reported $50 million in bad loans, but White House Senior Advisor Kevin Hassett reassured that the banking system remains liquid and “credit conditions are generally stable.”
Goldman Sachs: Gold Price Rally “Real-Based,” Not Speculative Bubble
Gold prices continued to hit records this week, surpassing $4,300 an ounce on October 16, marking a four-session winning streak and a gain of about 65% year-to-date, the strongest since 1979. However, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., this is not a speculative frenzy, but reflects real demand from institutions and central banks.
“The current momentum in gold is not driven by euphoria,” Goldman Sachs said in a video conference. “Central banks continue to buy at record levels, while private investors are only gradually rebalancing their portfolios as the Fed accelerates the pace of rate cuts.”
After years of low asset allocations to gold, the market is now returning to a more reasonable balance, not a “gold bubble,” Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 an ounce, highlighting two key drivers: strong inflows into Western gold ETFs and sustained net buying by central banks, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.
Echoes of the 1970s: History Repeats in a New Way
Let’s compare the current cycle to the “gold rush” of the 1970s, when the US ended the Bretton Woods system, inflation soared and the oil crisis pushed the price of gold many times higher.
“Back then, budget deficits and policy uncertainty led investors to seek refuge outside the official monetary system. And now, similar factors are emerging, from US fiscal risks to geopolitical divergence, making gold continue to be a popular hedge.”
According to Goldman Sachs, the gold market is still relatively small compared to the scale of global capital flows, so each shift in capital flows greatly amplifies price fluctuations.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
The daily chart of gold is still in a medium-long term uptrend, as shown by the price remaining above the MA21 and still in the uptrend channel despite the correction. After reaching a historical peak of 4,379, the price has dropped to around 4,250 USD/ounce, corresponding to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382.
• Current candlestick structure: a strong correction candle appears but has not broken the bullish structure.
• Important technical support zones:
o 4.216 – 4.160 (Fibo 0.382 – 0.5): potential short-term support zone.
o 4.110 (Fibo 0.618): stronger support, if this zone is broken, it can move into a deep correction phase.
• RSI: still above 70, showing that the market is still in the overbought zone, prone to strong short-term fluctuations but has not confirmed a reversal.
=> Conclusion of the main trend: Gold is still in the main uptrend, currently only in a technical correction phase after reaching the peak, there is no signal of a medium-term reversal.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4309 - 4307⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4313
→Take Profit 1 4301
↨
→Take Profit 2 4295
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4160 - 4162⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4156
→Take Profit 1 4168
↨
→Take Profit 2 4174
GOLD Is this a Super Cycle??XAUUSD (Gold) has been rising non-stop basically since the last time it made contact with (and bounced on) the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) two years ago (October 2023). Contrary to what many believe, a technical correction may not be coming soon as this long-term bullish trend resembles the Super Cycle that started in the early 2001.
So far Gold is within a Channel Up since 2018 and the next correction may take place well within 2026 and closer to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. In any case, if this is indeed a new such Super Cycle, Gold represents a sound long-term investment up until at least $8000, which would be again a +660% rise from the Bear Cycle's bottom (as in the previous Cycle).
Do you think history will repeat itself?
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XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Golden Crossroads at 4,246.86Executive Summary (1D & 4H Timeframes):
Gold is at a critical juncture. The daily chart reveals a battle between a dominant Head and Shoulders top pattern and a potential Elliott Wave 4 corrective pullback. The neckline at 4,220 is the line in the sand. A decisive break below confirms the H&S pattern, targeting 4,150. However, the 4H chart shows consolidation above this level, with the 200-EMA (4,235) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement providing immediate support. The RSI is bearish but not oversold, suggesting room for a move in either direction. The overarching trend from the last major low remains intact until 4,220 gives way.
Swing Trading Strategy (4H/Daily):
BEARISH SCENARIO (Below 4,220 ): Sell on a confirmed break and close below 4,220. Initial Target: 4,180 (H&S Measured Move). Final Target: 4,150. Stop Loss: 4,265 (above recent swing high).
BULLISH SCENARIO (Above 4,265 ): A hold above 4,235 (200-EMA) and a break above 4,265 invalidates the immediate bearish structure, targeting a retest of 4,300. Buy on a bullish reversal candle above 4,235. Stop Loss: 4,210 .
Intraday Trading Plan (1H/30M/15M):
SHORT SETUP: Look for price rejection at the 4,255 - 4,260 resistance zone (aligned with 4H VWAP and 50-EMA) with bearish candlestick confirmation (e.g., Bearish Engulfing). Sell Entry: 4,255. Target 1: 4,240. Target 2: 4,225. Stop Loss: 4,268.
LONG SETUP: Only valid if price holds above 4,235 and shows strength. A bounce from 4,235-4,240 with a bullish candle (Hammer, Bullish Engulfing) offers a long opportunity. Buy Entry: 4,238. Target 1: 4,255. Target 2: 4,265. Stop Loss: 4,225.
Key Market Drivers & Alerts:
Geopolitical & Macro Watch: Monitor USD strength (DXY) and real yields. Any escalation in global tensions could trigger a safe-haven rush, invalidating technical bearishness.
Indicator Cluster: The convergence of the 200-EMA, Fibonacci support, and the H&S neckline creates a high-probability zone for the next significant move.
Final Word:
The path of least resistance is bearish below 4,220. Intraday traders can fade rallies towards 4,255-4,260, while swing traders await the decisive break. Always manage risk; a close above 4,265 flips the script to bullish.
Trade safe and follow the price action. Like and follow for continued high-quality analysis!
GOLD sets new record amid global risk waveSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to break out in the Asian trading session on Thursday morning (October 16), hitting a record high of $4,239.07/ounce, as investors increasingly sought the precious metal as a safe haven from increasingly complex fluctuations in the global economy.
In the previous session, gold closed at $4,207.85/ounce, up $65.94 (equivalent to 1.59%), and continued to increase by more than $25 today. Since the beginning of the week, gold prices have increased by nearly 5%, continuing a strong upward trend since mid-August.
The rise in gold prices comes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it will maintain its easy monetary policy path. Speaking this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “on track” to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% later this month, in response to signs of weakening growth and external uncertainty. Lower borrowing costs typically increase the appeal of non-yielding gold compared to bonds and currencies.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have added to the market’s tension. Responding to a reporter’s question about trade relations with China, Mr. Trump said: “Yes, we are in a trade war right now.”
This statement, quoted by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about long-term damage to the global economy, a factor that often drives capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown and the “downdraft effect” when investors simultaneously sell bonds and foreign currencies to switch to holding gold and safe-haven assets, further strengthening the precious metal’s price increase.
Strong central bank gold buying has also played a significant role in the rally. Personally, I believe that much of this year’s rally has been “driven by physical demand”, as many central banks “aggressively add to reserves to hedge against sovereign debt risks and expansionary monetary policies”.
So far, gold prices have risen more than 60% in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in global investment thinking, where gold has once again asserted its central role as a source of financial confidence in times of political and monetary uncertainty.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Spot XAUUUSD continues to maintain a strong uptrend, currently trading around $4,239/ounce, up nearly 0.75% on the day and approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $4,213 – $4,286, corresponding to the top of the short-term rising channel.
Trend Structure
• The medium-term uptrend remains solid, with a series of steadily rising candles and the MA50 maintaining a strong upward slope, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
• The uptrend channel remains effective, with prices currently hovering at the upper boundary of the channel, indicating that the buying momentum is too strong in the short term.
• The RSI remains above 70, indicating a technically overbought state, but there is no clear reversal signal yet; this usually signals a slight correction before the uptrend continues.
Key Technical Zones
• Resistance: 4.286 (0.786 Fib) and 4.378 (100% extension target).
• Support: 4.162 (0.5 Fib), 4.059 (old confluence – dynamic support), further 3.947 (balance).
Intraday Scenario
• The main trend remains bullish, but the risk of a short-term correction increases as prices approach the Fibonacci resistance zone.
• Day traders can wait for a buyback around $4,160 – $4,180, the confluence between the 0.5 Fib and the midline of the rising channel, where bottom-fishing buying is likely to emerge.
• The short-term target is $4,280 – $4,300/oz, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel.
• Technical stop-loss should be placed below $4,050 (psychological support and short-term MA).
Overview
Speculative money still dominates, but the market is showing signs of needing a “technical breather” to consolidate the new price base. In the context of the Fed easing signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, the main uptrend of gold is not yet threatened, but short-term trading should prioritize the strategy of buying on corrections instead of chasing high prices.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4298 - 4296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4302
→Take Profit 1 4290
↨
→Take Profit 2 4284
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4144 - 4146⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4140
→Take Profit 1 4152
↨
→Take Profit 2 4158
GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown.
As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting.
Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion.
The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November.
The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal.
Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle.
Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening.
Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness.
If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control.
• Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction.
Important levels on the chart
• Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378.
• Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA).
Short-term scenario & warnings
• Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060.
• Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility.
Risk Management
• Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility.
• Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest.
The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4246
→Take Profit 1 4234
↨
→Take Profit 2 4228
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4141
→Take Profit 1 4153
↨
→Take Profit 2 4159
How High Will Gold Go? It Depends on the DollarThe inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is evident. Interestingly, we observe that when the dollar falls, gold rises—but the magnitude of gold’s increase is often greater than the dollar’s decline.
As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up.
From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up.
From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up.
And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up.
With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential.
Conversely, when the dollar increases, gold declines by almost the same magnitude.
Apart from de-dollarization, what are the other reasons dollar will face more headwinds?
There are three elements
• Existing debt,
• more money printing and
• tariffs,
All these 3 elements are not going to go away anytime soon, as long as the debt continue to rise, more money to be printed and more tariffs impose, dollar downtrend is likely to continue. When dollar is down, gold is up.
And these trends did not happen recently. It is taking shape over the past decades with a lower dollar, we can see how nicely the trends have seated on its historical troughs and peaks forming the channel for the dollar, and also in the gold over the decades.
This tutorial video version:
Mirco Gold Futures and Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Update 15OCT2025: RSI Hints at CorrectionGold continues to dominate headlines, printing new all-time highs one after another
The 4-hour Bearish Divergence earlier failed to halt the rally
Now, a Bearish Divergence has appeared on the daily time frame, as the latest price high was not confirmed by RSI
This signals that a peak may be forming
A corrective phase could soon unfold as wave 4 within the larger wave (5) structure
The expected retracement could reach the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci zone of wave 3 of (5), targeting the pink box between $3,700 and $3,900
The low of the previous minor wave 4, near $3,958, may serve as initial support during the pullback
It is worth noting that the magnitude of wave (5) so far mirrors that of the prior large wave (3)
Therefore, the projected target for the final wave 5 of (5) remains around $4,300 as a conservative objective
However, if momentum extends further, wave 5 could evolve into an extended move and drive prices toward new record highs beyond that level
Surpassing the $4,100 mark amid trade tensionsOANDA:XAUUSD rose sharply in the first session of the week, surpassing the 4,100 USD/ounce mark, a new record high, as investors sought refuge in the context of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts.
Earlier, in the trading session on Monday, Spot Gold increased by 2.34% to 4,110.30 USD/ounce, reaching an intraday peak of 4,117.27 USD, massive speculative money flows into the precious metal as global political and trade uncertainties continue to dominate.
Some investors believe that gold can easily maintain the current upward momentum, thanks to a combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows and expectations of Fed policy easing.
US-China tensions spark safe-haven buying
Gold prices accelerated after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China and plans to control strategic software exports from November 1, a move seen as a response to Beijing's restrictions on exports of key minerals.
Although Trump assured on social media that "everything will be fine", the market still saw this as the start of a new round of escalation in the trade war.
The risk of additional 100% tariffs is still an unpriced variable and of course all risks are a lucrative bait for gold prices to continue to develop positively.
Fed Moves Closer to Taper Cycle
Expectations for Fed easing continue to underpin non-yielding gold. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October, and a 100% chance of a cut in December.
Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual conference on Tuesday, which is expected to provide further clarity on the path of monetary policy during this delicate period. A host of other Fed officials are also due to speak this week, as global financial markets react strongly to signals from Washington.
Gold Price Outlook: Long-Term Uptrend Strengthened
According to the latest forecasts, Bank of America and Société Générale both see gold prices surpassing $5,000 an ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its 2025 target to $4,488.
Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, said:
“The current rally still has room to run. A short-term technical correction could be a positive signal for a more sustainable uptrend.”
Finally, with trade tensions yet to ease and global monetary policy easing, gold continues to consolidate its position as a strategic haven asset in the current period of economic and geopolitical volatility.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Main trend:
Gold continued its strong uptrend, closing around 4,142 USD/ounce, still within the main uptrend channel.
Resistance: 4,162 – 4,213 – 4,286 USD
Support: 4,100 – 4,060 – 4,000 USD
RSI > 75 shows extremely strong buying momentum, but short-term overbought, a technical correction may appear.
Overview:
The medium-term uptrend remains intact, the next target is towards $4,300, as long as the price holds above $4,000.
RSI warns of short-term fluctuations, prefer buying on corrections rather than chasing prices.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4200 - 4198⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4204
→Take Profit 1 4192
↨
→Take Profit 2 4186
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4113 - 4115⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4109
→Take Profit 1 4121
↨
→Take Profit 2 4127
XAUUSD Looking for a quick relief pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Up supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern.
This Bullish Leg has completed a +4.45% rise, almost similar to the first two of the pattern. They both pulled back to their respective 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels after the Higher High, so as long as the pattern's top holds, we expect a quick correction to $4055 (Fib 0.382).
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 13 - Oct 17]During this week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continuously set new record highs, surging from $3,884/oz to as high as $4,059/oz, before closing the week at $4,011/oz.
Although the fundamental factors supporting gold’s uptrend remain solid, many analysts have expressed concerns about the possibility of a gold sell-off, similar to what occurred in 2011, as investment demand for gold has skyrocketed in recent months. According to data from the World Gold Council, global investment demand for gold-backed ETFs surged by 221.7 tons (worth nearly $26 billion) in the third quarter. This strong inflow pushed total ETF gold holdings up by nearly 2%, approaching the all-time high recorded in 2020.
Moreover, within just one trading session following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, about $1.5 trillion in U.S. stock market capitalization was wiped out, while the crypto market also lost roughly $280 billion. This raises concerns that investors might start taking profits on their gold positions—which are currently showing strong gains—to cover losses in stocks and cryptocurrencies.
However, mounting fiscal pressure, rising public debt, and waning confidence in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, along with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and Trump’s recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, continue to support gold prices in the near term.
For the upcoming week, gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,850/oz and $4,150/oz.
📌In terms of technical analysis, on the short-term chart H1, it is necessary to pay attention to 2 resistance levels: the resistance level around 4059, and the support level 3945. Next week, the gold price will continue to maintain its upward momentum when the 4059 level is broken. In case the price trades below the 3945 level, the gold price may be sold off, causing the price to adjust to around 3850.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
• Nearest resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top zone that needs to be overcome to extend the upside momentum.
• Next resistance:
o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232,
o Level 0.5 at $4,320,
o And the 0.618 extension zone at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum.
• Short-term support:
o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support).
o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4098 - 4096⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4102
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3908 - 3910⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3904
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish! IRL To ERL! Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Oct. 13-17th.
Gold is bullish on all HTFs. Selling is not an option. Moving from IRL to ERL. Only buys are valid.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.






















