Gold Short Trade - IntradayThis intraday trade should be quick and short, as soon as Bulls starts to give up.
1. Price reached the orange CL
2. Price left the L-MLH
3. Pullback to L-MLH expected and fullfilled.
4. Price weakens after Test/Retest of L-MLH
Short with no doubt, just following the rules.
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GC1! (Gold Futures)
GC Compression Under ATH — Break or Rotate 1/27/26🟡 GC (Gold Futures) 📊 | Premarket Trading Plan
🧲 Key Decision Zone
5,080 – 5,070
→ Prior rejection zone + range midpoint
This is the battle line between continuation and rotation.
🔴 Resistance / Supply
5,095 – 5,108 → ATH supply / distribution cap
5,083 – 5,090 → Active seller zone (multiple rejections)
🟢 Support / Demand
5,000 – 4,990 → Prior week high + imbalance support
4,960 – 4,950 → Trend support / acceptance base
4,910 – 4,900 → Extreme downside / range low
🧭 Trade Thesis
🟢 Bull Case
Acceptance above 5,080 keeps GC in continuation mode
Holding 5,070 = dip buyers still active
Clean reclaim opens 5,095 → 5,108 (ATH test)
Break and hold ATH = price discovery
🔴 Bear Case
Rejection at 5,080–5,090 keeps GC range-bound
Acceptance below 5,050 opens rotation toward 5,000
Loss of 4,990 exposes 4,960 → 4,950
📌 Market Context (Why This Matters)
GC is extended but not breaking structure
Momentum slowing under ATH = compression
Expect reaction-based trades, not chasing
Best setups = acceptance or hard rejection, not chop
GOLD: Strong! Buy The Dips!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan. 26 - 30th.
Gold closed last week bullish, surging to ATHs. No reason to look for shorts. Waiting for dip buying opportunities is the best bet.
Look for the +FVGs on the LTFs to be tested for support. Those may be the opportunities to get in buy entries.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
XAUUSD Time to correct for the last time before $8000?Almost 5 months ago (September 05 2025, see chart below) we posted a multi-decade analysis on Gold (XAUUSD), making a case why $8000 was the long-term Target by late 2029:
Now as the price has almost reached the top of its Bull Cycle Channel Up (green) and it is time to start considering a multi-month technical correction.
That was what happened back in March 2008 when the price was almost at the exact point as today. At the top of its Bull Cycle Channel Up, just after the 0.786 Time Fibonacci level and just below the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci level. With just this month's rise (January 2026), Gold managed to reach the 0.236 Channel Fib just a month after it hit the current 0.786 Time Fib.
So that technical confluence initiated an 8-month correction that breached the 0.236 Horizontal Fib (orange), did the same to the 0.618 Channel Fib and just before it hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), it bottomed.
On today's fractal we know where both the 0.618 Channel Fib and 1M MA50 are so what's left is to confirm where the price peaks and draw the 0.236 Fib. If we top a little higher, then the 0.236 Fib will be at 3600, so we can expect to fulfil the 2008 conditions a little lower.
In any case, the moment Gold approaches its 1M MA50 again (remember this is also where the market bottomed in November 2022 and this massive rally started), it will be our choice for a long-term buy again, targeting the top of this Cycle at $8000.
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Gold Update 22JAN2026: Check The Power Of TrendlinePrice follows the path posted last week and even broke out of small uptrend
How far it can go further up?
I switched to a weekly chart and added the trendline built through the peaks of waves 1 and 3
in yellow - it offers strong resistance in $4,950-5,000 area as price usually respects such large trendlines
I also checked the size of wave 5 compared to wave 1-3 distance - it reached whopping 1.618x of it compared to normal 0.618-1x
Indeed, commodities tend to have extended fifth waves and this extended size is still good
RSI on weekly as well as on daily shows Bearish Divergence, this is not the action alert but the
indicator of the final stage
Let's watch how the price reacts to the trendline as this is the only resistance at the moment
The breakdown point now is set at the bottom of the tiny wave 4 at $4,284
Gold, Silver, Copper Futures Positionings ComparedUsing the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data, I look at how futures traders are positioned in gold, silver and copper. Together, they tell three very different stories — one that looks undervalued, another that appears overextended, and a third that makes me nervous.
MS.
XAUUSD rallying on its new short-term Bullish Leg.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up exactly since the start of the new year. Friday's pull-back saw the price it the bottom of this Channel Up (Higher Lows trend-line), exactly on the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Higher High.
This is the exact same pattern it followed on the first Bullish Leg. As a result, we expect another +5.30% rise in total, targeting $4775 before another correction to the 1H MA200 (and 0.382 Fib) at $4685.
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GOLD: Bullish! Buys Only! Buy The Dips!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan. 19-24th.
Gold is climbing higher, with Trump tariff threats as winds beneath the wings!
There is no reason to consider longs! Pullbacks should be seen as dip-buying opportunities.
It's that simple.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD: Missiles Flying? Protests In Iran? Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan. 12 - 16th.
Gold is seeing inflows lately due to tensions in the market. The US and Venezuela, missiles to Syria, and protests in Iran... have caused investors to look toward this safe haven.
I expect a gap open for the second week in a row, and further gains this week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Update 15JAN2026: Bearish DivergenceThe price follows the projected path very accurately
It reached the target zone and updated the all-time high at $4,651
At the same time, RSI has formed a bearish divergence, as anticipated earlier for Wave 5
Price is making a higher high while RSI prints a lower peak on the sub-chart
This signals weakening momentum and suggests a reversal may be close
Price may still produce one final spike toward the upper boundary of the bullish trend before fading
$4,250 remains the key support level to watch
Trump eases tariffs, precious metals reverse course after surge.I view the current OANDA:XAUUSD chart as a familiar market story: after a strong rally, price pauses, consolidates, and shakes out weak hands before continuing higher within a well-defined ascending channel. The primary momentum has not been broken.
• First, the trend structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows. Price is moving within an upward price channel, and each corrective move has been contained near the lower boundary of the channel or key moving averages.
• Second, former Fibonacci resistance levels have turned into support. The 0.5–0.382 zone has acted as a “base,” where buying interest consistently emerges whenever the market experiences volatility. This is a classic signal of a healthy uptrend: price does not need deep corrections to attract new capital.
• Third, momentum has not been disrupted. RSI remains above the neutral zone and is showing signs of holding a base rather than forming a clear bearish divergence. This suggests that while profit-taking pressure exists, it is not strong enough to reverse the prevailing trend.
From a macro perspective, gold continues to be “backed” by the narrative of low real interest rates, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, and growing doubts about the stability of the global financial order. Defensive capital has not exited the precious metals market; it has merely paused to reassess.
In terms of technical targets, if price continues to hold current support and resumes its upward move, the next objective lies in the 4,680–4,750 USD zone, aligned with the upper boundary of the price channel and Fibonacci extensions. This is an area where the market is likely to test supply.
Key risk to monitor: if a clear breakdown occurs below the 0.382–0.5 support zone with a decisive close beneath the ascending channel, a deeper correction toward the 4,430–4,380 USD area would be activated. However, under current conditions, this would still represent a correction within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
In summary, within the current gold market narrative, pullbacks are not signals to exit, but rather necessary pauses that allow new capital to enter. As long as macro uncertainty persists and the technical structure remains intact, the dominant trend continues to point higher.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4652 - 4650⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4656
→Take Profit 1 4644
↨
→Take Profit 2 4638
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4558 - 4560⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4554
→Take Profit 1 4566↨
→Take Profit 2 4572
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/15/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Slight recovery after a corrective move, but no strong bullish trend has formed yet. Pressure on gold is only short-term.
• U.S. Equities: Sideways and choppy; capital has not strongly rotated back into risk assets → gold continues to play a defensive role.
• FED: The market continues to expect easing in upcoming meetings; no clear hawkish signals yet.
• TRUMP: U.S. political factors still carry potential volatility; not strong enough to form a new trend but supportive for holding gold.
• Gold ETFs (SPDR): ETF flows remain stable with no strong outflows → medium-term gold trend is still supported.
b) Politics:
• Global geopolitical tensions have not fully eased → gold maintains a high price base.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off: Investors remain cautious, no FOMO at high prices → preference to BUY on pullbacks.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Overall trend: Medium-term uptrend – short-term correction.
• Price has tested the upper trendline resistance (ATH zone) multiple times and shown selling reactions.
• Currently, price is pulling back toward the dynamic MA support + the 4,600 price zone.
• RSI cooling down from high levels → healthy correction, no sign of trend breakdown.
• Structure remains Higher High – Higher Low as long as the 4,590–4,600 zone holds.
RESISTANCE: 4,618 – 4,630 – 4,640 – 4,680
SUPPORT: 4,600 – 4,577 – 4,550
3. Previous Session (14/01/26):
• Gold slightly broke above the previous high → short-term profit-taking appeared. The trendline remains strong.
• Average trading range, shaking out late BUY chase orders.
• Selling pressure was strong but did not break the bullish structure; mainly a technical correction.
4. Strategy for Today (15/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,652 – 4,650
• SL: 4,656
• TP1: 4,644
• TP2: 4,638
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,558 – 4,560
• SL: 4,554
• TP1: 4,566
• TP2: 4,572
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/14/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economic:
• USD: After CPI, the USD staged a technical rebound but failed to sustain strong momentum, indicating that buying pressure remains weak.
• US Equities: Mixed performance; capital has not strongly rotated back into risk assets → gold continues to hold its defensive role.
• FED: Rate-cut expectations remain intact in the medium–long term. The Fed has not delivered a sufficiently hawkish stance to reverse gold’s trend.
• TRUMP: Statements and potential policies continue to create policy uncertainty, which is supportive for gold.
• SPDR: Added 3.43 tons, supporting the bullish trend.
b) Geopolitics:
• Geopolitical tensions have not fully cooled down; latent risks remain → gold maintains its safe-haven position.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off environment: capital has not exited gold.
• After the early-month correction, sentiment has shifted to selective buying rather than FOMO.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Price has broken out of the accumulation box after successfully testing the bottom.
• A Higher Low structure has formed → short-term trend has turned bullish.
• Price is trading above the MA, with the MA starting to slope upward.
• RSI is moving toward the 70 zone, indicating strong buying momentum.
=> Short-term trend: BULLISH – prioritize BUY on pullbacks.
RESISTANCE: 4.618 – 4.630 – 4.683
SUPPORT: 4.600 – 4.577 – 4.550
3. Previous Session (13/01/26):
• Early session: Gold was pressured lower, shaking out weak BUY positions.
• Mid-session: Price moved sideways, accumulating and absorbing supply.
• Late session: Strong breakout above the box, closing at highs → confirmation of capital inflow.
=> This was a post-accumulation breakout, supported by fundamentals, not a random spike.
4. Today’s Strategy (14/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,686 – 4,684
• SL: 4,690
• TP1: 4,678
• TP2: 4,672
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,558 – 4,560
• SL: 4,554
• TP1: 4,566
• TP2: 4,572
GOLD trading alert! Today's US CPI could be a turning pointThe OANDA:XAUUSD market is entering a very different state compared to the accumulation phase at the end of the year. After the breakout to the $4,600/ounce region, the technical structure shows that the main uptrend remains intact and a new uptrend cycle has met the conditions to form.
On the daily chart, the price continues to move within an ascending channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous one. More importantly, the Fibonacci levels that were resistance in the previous phase have now been absorbed by the price and transformed into dynamic support zones.
Specifically:
• The 0.5 zone around 4.42x–4.45x has been successfully retested.
• The 0.382 zone around 4.29x–4.30x acts as a deeper support buffer for the trend structure.
The fact that prices have remained stable above these levels indicates that buying pressure is not just short-term speculation but has shifted to a trend-following holding position.
In terms of targets, with the medium-term Fibonacci levels having been conquered, the next technical target lies at the 0.786 region around 4.72x–4.73x USD, corresponding to the upper boundary of the price channel. If momentum is maintained, the 4.95x–5.00x region will be the next extended target of the cycle.
However, the risk doesn't lie in an immediate trend reversal, but rather in a technical correction after reaching the target. When the price approaches 4.72x–4.75x, the market may experience:
• Profit-taking along the wave.
• Narrowing of the range and a return to test the support zone at 4.45x or even deeper at 4.30x to "clean up" positions before establishing the next upward move.
In other words, the big picture is still bullish, but the short-term path will not be straight.
Gold is no longer in a "breakout test" phase. Technically, the market has entered a new, clearly structured uptrend, with old resistance levels becoming price bases. The target ahead has been identified, but a correction after reaching that target is something to prepare for, rather than being caught off guard when it occurs.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4652 - 4650⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4656
→Take Profit 1 4644
↨
→Take Profit 2 4638
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4527 - 4529⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4523
→Take Profit 1 4535
↨
→Take Profit 2 4541
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/13/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Ahead of U.S. CPI, the USD is moving in a choppy range, with potential for a short-term spike on news release → creating technical pullback pressure on gold during the session.
• U.S. Equities: Cautious sentiment, capital is not yet willing to take strong risks before CPI → no clear capital rotation away from gold.
• FED: CPI is a key dataset for the FED in assessing the interest rate path. If CPI does not cool as expected → market reactions may be volatile, but the medium-term gold trend remains intact.
• TRUMP: No new statements strong enough to directly impact the market; this factor is currently neutral.
• Gold ETF: SPDR added more than 6 tons → confirming large capital accumulation, supporting a BUY-on-dips bias rather than distribution.
b) Geopolitics:
• No new escalations, but global geopolitical risks remain latent → gold maintains its baseline safe-haven role.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off ahead of CPI → defensive positioning, prone to sideways movement and stop-hunting during news sessions. Profit-taking may appear and, if widespread, could trigger a sharp drop.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Primary Trend: Bullish (Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact).
• Price is correcting after ATH, trading below short-term MAs, retesting the equilibrium zone.
• RSI (M15–M30): Recovering from lower levels → selling pressure is weakening, but not yet strong enough to confirm a bullish reversal.
• Current structure aligns with:
• Sideway consolidation
• Or one more shakeout toward deeper support before rebounding.
RESISTANCE: 4,600 – 4,630 – 4,683
SUPPORT: 4,577 – 4,550 – 4,533
3. Previous Session (12/01/26):
• Gold surged strongly despite a USD rebound → indicating weak selling pressure.
• Large money did not distribute; this was merely a technical correction after an extended rally.
• Price behavior suggests: patience remains the advantage.
4. Today’s Strategy (13/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,643 – 4,639
• SL: 4,648
• TP1: 4,630
• TP2: 4,621
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,540 – 4,544
• SL: 4,536
• TP1: 4,552
• TP2: 4,560
XAUUSD hit ATH but it is headed towards a rejection.Gold (XAUUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today amidst new geopolitical unrest. That is technically a Higher High on nearly a 3-month Channel Up.
Being currently on its latest Bullish Leg, two of the three that this pattern had in total, rose by around +9.20%. As a result, this rally doesn't have that much room left in it (4665), and based on the Channel Up, we should see the new Bearish Leg emerging soon.
The Bearish Legs for those two Bullish Legs that grew by +9.20%, both marginally broke the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming just below their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels.
As a result, we expect the Channel Up to pull-back next to 4425.
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GOLD surges! Iran, the Fed, and the wavering US policy.OANDA:XAUUSD experienced a breakout in the Asian session, not as a momentary market reaction, but as a confluence of three risk factors: escalating geopolitical tensions, dovish monetary policy, and instability in central US institutions.
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, setting a new all-time high of $4,599.80 per ounce in a single session. This $90 daily increase wasn't driven by purely speculative capital flows, but rather reflected a widespread defensive sentiment.
I believe that gold's new high isn't a moment of euphoria, but rather a message. It suggests that investors are reassessing the global risk landscape: from the unstable Middle East and sanctioned Latin America to internal policy and legal dynamics in Washington. Bloomberg has described gold's past year as a series of record-breaking events as interest rates fell, geopolitical tensions escalated, and confidence in the dollar weakened simultaneously. Notably, many fund managers are not rushing to take profits, as they see gold not just as a trade, but as a long-term hedge.
In that picture, the surge to nearly $4,600/ounce wasn't the end point. It signaled that the market was entering a phase where political, legal, and monetary risks were no longer on the periphery, but had become central variables. And as centers of power simultaneously signaled instability, gold was once again chosen not for yield, but for the belief that there are times when preserving value is more important than maximizing profits.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4642 - 4640⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4646
→Take Profit 1 4634
↨
→Take Profit 2 4628
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4510 - 4512⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4506
→Take Profit 1 4518
↨
→Take Profit 2 4524






















