4500 or 4200??By analyzing the 4-hour (4H) gold chart, we can see that price experienced a strong correction today, falling from the 4406 area to 4332. Currently, price is trading around the same area.
The 4304–4350 zone is considered an important supply zone. If the market manages to consolidate above this area, we can expect the bullish move to continue and gold to push higher.
However, if this scenario fails and price breaks this important zone to the downside, further correction and a decline toward the 4228 area could be expected.
⚠️ Important Note:
Any escalation in political tensions and conflicts between the United States and Iran could affect the value of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the direction of gold. Therefore, keep this factor in mind and carefully monitor price reactions around the key levels mentioned above.
🎯 Bullish Targets:
• 4378
• 4415
• 4450
Keep a close eye on the mentioned levels and, before making any trading decision, carefully analyze price action and market structure.
Good luck ❤️
ASHKAN SHADEMANI
با تحلیل نمودار طلای ۴ ساعته (۴ ساعته)، می توان دید که قیمت امروز اصلاح قوی ای را تجربه کرد و از محدوده ۴۴۰۶ به ۴۳۳۲ سقوط کرد. در حال حاضر، قیمت در همان محدوده معامله می شود. منطقه 4304–4350 به عنوان یک منطقه عرضه مهم در نظر گرفته می شود. اگر بازار بتواند بالای این منطقه تثبیت شود، می توان انتظار داشت حرکت صعودی ادامه یابد و طلا به سمت بالا حرکت کند. با این حال، اگر این سناریو شکست بخورد و قیمت این منطقه مهم را به سمت پایین بشکند، اصلاح بیشتر و کاهش به سمت منطقه ۴۲۲۸ قابل انتظار است.
⚠️ نکته مهم: هرگونه تشدید تنش ها و درگیری های سیاسی بین ایالات متحده و ایران می تواند ارزش دلار آمریکا و در نتیجه جهت طلا را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. بنابراین، این عامل را در نظر داشته باشید و واکنش های قیمتی در سطوح کلیدی ذکر شده را با دقت زیر نظر داشته باشید.
🎯 اهداف صعودی:
• 4378
• 4415
• 4450
سطوح مذکور را به دقت زیر نظر داشته باشید و قبل از هر تصمیم معاملاتی، حرکت قیمت و ساختار بازار را به دقت تحلیل کنید. موفق باشید ❤️
اشکان شیدمانی 
Long
XAU/USD 01 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 25 June 2026.
The break and close below the weak internal low is insignificant, therefore, it would be wise to monitor this.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish iBOS and bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bullish pullback phase.
We are now trading within a confirmed and established internal range.
You will note internal range depth has significantly decreased.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 25 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 15 June 2026 with price subsequently printing a bearish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 15 June 2026 where I was not convinced of the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS. I also mentioned in alternative scenario of my analysis that I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
This is how priced printed, subsequently printing a bearish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase, thereafter, price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,959.080.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: Long 
XAU/USD 23 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 15 June 2026.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 19 June 2026.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 15 June 2026 where I was not convinced of the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS, price did not trade down to either discount of M15 internal EQ, or M15 supply zone, therefore,I will not classify the bullish iBOS and have marked this is red. I will however classify the most recent bullish iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish iBOS and bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,382.615.
Alterative scenario:
I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 22 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 15 June 2026.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 15 June 2026 where I was not convinced of the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS, price did not trade down to either discount of M15 internal EQ, or M15 supply zone, therefore,I will not classify the bullish iBOS and have marked this is red. I will however classify the most recent bullish iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish iBOS and bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,382.615.
Alterative scenario:
I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 19 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 15 June 2026.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 15 June 2026 where I was not convinced of the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS, price did not trade down to either discount of M15 internal EQ, or M15 supply zone, therefore,I will not classify the bullish iBOS and have marked this is red. I will however classify the most recent bullish iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish iBOS and bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,382.615.
Alterative scenario:
I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 17 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 15 June 2026.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 16 June 2026.
Price did not print according to analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price instead targeted strong internal high and printed a bullish iBOS.
However, due to the nature of the bullish iBOS, being very slight, I am not convinced of the validity of the bullish iBOS. Nonetheless, I shall remain with the systematic process and classify it as such.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,369.665.
Alterative scenario:
Due to the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 16 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price did not print according to analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price instead targeted strong internal high and printed a bullish iBOS.
However, due to the nature of the bullish iBOS, being very slight, I am not convinced of the validity of the bullish iBOS. Nonetheless, I shall remain with the systematic process and classify it as such.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,369.665.
Alterative scenario:
Due to the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 15 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH as per analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price continued bearish and did not trade up to premium of 50% internal EQ. therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify the previous CHoCH and iBOS. I have marked this in red for illustration purposes.
You will note that price has printed a bearish BOS, which is in-line with H4 analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bullish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 12 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price has finally printed according to my analysis dated 24 March 2026, where I mentioned price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 4,099.125.
This is exactly how price printed.
Price has printed a bearish iBOS.
Price has yet to print a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Due to the distance between current price and CHoCH position, I suspect price will continue lower to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action.
Intraday expectation:
Price to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation by printing a bullish CHoCH. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizonal dotted line.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 June 2026.
Price continued bearish and did not trade up to premium of 50% internal EQ. therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify the previous CHoCH and iBOS. I have marked this in red for illustration purposes.
You will note that price has printed a bearish BOS, which is in-line with H4 analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bullish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 10 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 08 June 2026 where I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,268.480.
Price did not trade up to premium of 50% internal EQ, however, due to time spent, I will classify the bearish iBOS.
Price subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bullish pullback phase initiation, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price is currently trading within an established range and is currently trading in a H4 supply zone.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,172.565.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 09 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH as per my intraday analysis yesterday dated 09/06/2026.
Price is now trading within an established range, however, I will be monitoring price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,268.480.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 08 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has not printed according to analysis dated 01 June 2026. However, I also mentioned that I was not entirely convinced of the bullish iBOS to the insignificant nature of the iBOS.
Price targeted weak internal low and has printed a bearish iBOS. This is in-line with H4 bearish structure.
Price has previously printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation, however, I will apply discretion and not classify the bullish CHoCH due to insignificant nature of pullback.
You will note price is reacting at a previous H4 supply zone where we may see extended rangebound activity.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line. Price to then trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,268.480.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 05 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 01 June 2026.
Price has not printed according to my analysis dated 28 May 2026.
Price did not target weak internal low, instead printing a bullish iBOS. However, I am not entirely convinced of the bullish iBOS to the insignificant nature of the iBOS.
Nonetheless, I shall follow a systematic procedure and classify this as an iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish iBOS to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,595.330.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 04 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 01 June 2026.
Price has not printed according to my analysis dated 28 May 2026.
Price did not target weak internal low, instead printing a bullish iBOS. However, I am not entirely convinced of the bullish iBOS to the insignificant nature of the iBOS.
Nonetheless, I shall follow a systematic procedure and classify this as an iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish iBOS to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,595.330.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 03 June 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 01 June 2026.
Price has not printed according to my analysis dated 28 May 2026.
Price did not target weak internal low, instead printing a bullish iBOS. However, I am not entirely convinced of the bullish iBOS to the insignificant nature of the iBOS.
Nonetheless, I shall follow a systematic procedure and classify this as an iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed a bearish iBOS to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,595.330.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 10 April 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 08 April 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis by printing bullish iBOS.
Price has subsequently printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now contained within an established internal range, however, I shall continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,858.215.
Alternative Scenario: Price could print bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low as H4 TF could potentially have completed it's bullish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The latest tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 31 March 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 24 March 2026.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an Established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either premium of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low currently priced at 4,099.125.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 23 March 2026.
Price has printed a bearish iBOS and BOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low with CHoCH positioning denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line, however, I shall monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation, thereafter, price to trade up to either premium of 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 4099.125.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on the M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The latest tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAU/USD 17 March 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 02 February 2026.
Price has printed as per analysis dated 22 January where I mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 5,602,225.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 16 March 2026.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 03 March 2026 where I mentioned price to target weak internal low priced at 4996.275.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 4967.775.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive as geopolitical risk dominates market sentiment. The latest escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran has injected a fresh safe‑haven bid into XAU/USD, with traders bracing for further headline‑driven volatility. Safe‑haven flows remain elevated as markets weigh the risk of broader regional spillover and the potential for sudden sentiment shocks.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding another layer of macro uncertainty, amplifying risk‑off moves and fuelling sharp intraday swings. With liquidity pockets and whipsaw‑like behaviour becoming more common, disciplined risk management is essential in this environment.
Gold’s geopolitical premium remains firmly intact and until tensions ease, volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: XAUUSD. Uptrend after the pullback ends. Target: 5550Fundamentals:
1️⃣Geopolitics. The US/Israel conflict with Iran is currently the main market driver. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Brent crude oil has the potential to rise to 100 per barrel and higher if the conflict drags on. Gold is clearly becoming a safe haven. Positive for growth.
2️⃣Fed Monetary Policy. The Fed rate is 3.50–3.75%. At the March meeting, analysts and the market expect a 95.6% probability of leaving the rate unchanged. The Iranian conflict and rising oil prices have pushed back expectations for a rate cut to September-October. A pause in the rate cut cycle supports gold amid uncertainty. Positive for growth.
3️⃣US Inflation. January 2026 CPI -2.4% y/y (8-month low), core CPI -2.5%. Inflation is likely slowing, but rising oil prices could significantly impact its resumption. Gold traditionally benefits from rising inflation expectations. Positive for growth.
4️⃣Dollar Index. The DXY rose to ~99.0, a 5-week high, amid investors' shift to safe-haven assets. Over the week, the index has gained +2.4%. A strong dollar usually puts pressure on gold, but now both assets are rising simultaneously due to the conflict in Iran, indicating a high level of fear in the markets. Neutral impact
5️⃣Central banks. The Central Bank's purchase forecast for 2026 is 773–1,117 tonnes (down from peaks of 1,000+ in 2023–2025, but significantly above the average of 400–500 tonnes through 2022). Projected demand in the first quarter is ~190 tonnes. The attempt by central banks in large countries to decouple from the dollar remains a strategic trend. Positive for growth.
6️⃣Flows into gold ETFs. North America - 9 months of continuous inflows. Asia - strong demand. Europe is the only region with outflows in February (-$1.8 billion). January 2025 showed the strongest inflow into gold ETFs in history - $19 billion (~120 tonnes). All of this is a strong positive for growth.
7️⃣Gold supply. Mining and refining volumes are expected to be at the level of previous year. Demand in 2025 was ~4,974 tons with production at ~3,661 tons. The deficit is ~1,313 tons. High demand exceeds production capacity, which is already operating at the limit of existing capacity. A significant increase in supply that could curb prices is not expected. Positive for growth.
👉🏻Conclusion👈🏻: Strong upward price trend. The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant short-term demand factors. Structural factors (central bank purchases, ETF flows, inflation risks) support the long-term trend. So, we continue to rise.
Technical Analysis:
1️⃣СCI - Above 0. Given gold's upside potential, we can consider entering the market on a breakout of +100, when that happens.
2️⃣RSI - in the middle of the range. Will act as a confirmation of the CCI when crossing the extreme zone at 70.
3️⃣VPVR zones - increased volume at 5178 and 5330
4️⃣Fibo - Targeting the Fibo levels - take profit levels below
5️⃣Moving Average Crossovers/Breakthroughs - Our key breakout is 5164. Buy order at this level. The moving average may pull the entry level lower; watch the EMA200. This will reduce the risk.
6️⃣Larger TF (h4) - CCI exits -100 (plus to buy), potential buy levels are confirmed at h4.
Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5164
🔸Stop: Preliminary 5048 - peak of the second wave
🔸Take Profit: TP 1 = 5209 (50% Fibonacci retracement), TP 2 = 5259 (38% Fibonacci retracement), TP 3 = 5338 (162% Fibonacci extension of the first wave after the retracement), TP 4 = 5550 (268% Fibonacci extension of the first wave after the retracement)
🔸Risk/Reward: 3.46 for TP 4
🔸Implementation: By the end of next week
Cancelation
🔸Breakout of the last low and the extensions of the waves below at 5014 (first) and 4924 (second). A recalculation will be needed.
Note
🔸No rush to enter. We need a crossing of the average, preferably EMA200 (green) Long 
XAU/USD 16 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 14 January 2026. It is worth noting how price failed to print above fractal high. Price seems to be in the process of printing bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 13 January 2026 where I mentioned, in alternative scenario, price to continue bullish.
As a result of continued bullish momentum CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to recent price action.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,639.890
Alternative scenario: Price to again continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 14 January 2026. Please note how weak internal low is holding with price unable to close above.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 13 January 2026 where I mentioned, in alternative scenario, price to continue bullish.
Price continued bullish with very minimal pullback, therefore, I will not classify previous IBOS.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, again, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,639.890.
Alternative scenario:
Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
