GOLD (XAUUSD): Channel boundary test before the up?

Gold, this is what I'm thinking for this week and longer term:

On the LTF (4HR) I think we'll fall at the start of the week due to:

• DXY strength
  
• Reducing momentum (MACD)
  
• Rejection at 1963.5
  
• Localised LHLL's
  
• EMA7 and EMA20 crossing below EMA50
  

If I see a suitable entry around the current level then I'll be in, looking for a first TP around 1940 and then on to the channel around 1931.

This rising parallel channel border is major support, that 'should' carry Gold back to the ATH region of 2075.

We've hit the ATH region 3 times:

• August 2020 - Pandemic
  
• March 2022 - War
  
• May 2023 - USD softening
  

The current impulse move (from Nov 2022) is looking strong with solid monthly bull candles, limited (comparatively) rejection from 2067 (May 2022), so we 'may' well get a new ATH soon - my theory being 3 failed attempts to break 2075 makes the fourth more likely to do it, especially with the frequency between attempts increasing:

• August 2020 - March 2022 - 18 months
  
• March 2022 - May 2023 - 13 months
  
• May 2023 - > 7 months ?? (looking at my charts if it's going to happen it will be by November 2023)
  

If this is going to happen, I think we need to see some push down onto the ascending channel boundary to create momentum; things are getting very squeezed in the upper corner of this triangle now, a lot of upward pressure.

Fundamentally there's loads of reasons for gold to be strong:

• Interest rates set to fall
  
• USD / DXY unlikely to see highs of last year based on my other analysis
  
• India and China hold value in Gold
  
• Likelihood of other global disasters, war, global-warming etc
  

Really interested to hear your opinion on this too, what do you think?

Comment:

This has gone exactly as predicted so far, will it bounce off the ascending trendline?

Comment:

We're sat on the ascending trendline, DXY is on the descending, all eyes on the news, but I reckon either way DXY is not going to be 'allowed' to break as this could signal a reversal. There's more nations want the USD to drop than not, so my view is industrial level sells sat waiting in case the US news is good, let's see if they break or not.

This is a big day...