Long
GOOGL | Deep Retrace Into A Stacked Buy Zone
By analyzing the #GOOGL (Alphabet) chart on the 1H timeframe, we can see a market in a healthy correction rather than a broken one. The higher timeframes remain firmly bullish, and price has pulled back into a region where three separate mechanisms overlap on the same prices. That is the setup, and the confirmation for it is specific.
Higher Timeframe Context
The larger trend is not in question. Price has printed bullish BOS on both the Daily and the 4H, and it continues to trade above the Protected Low at $314.32 . That level defines the entire structure and it has not been threatened.
What has happened is that the rally became extended, and the market is now correcting it. Corrections after impulsive advances tend to be deep, and this one has been. That depth is a function of how far price travelled, not a signal that the trend has failed.
1H Timeframe
On the hourly, the internal picture is where the detail sits. Price worked lower through a series of internal BOS, then printed a bullish iCHoCH — the first signal that the internal structure had turned back in favour of buyers.
Following that shift, price rallied into the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 and has since retraced. That retracement is what brought us here.
Price is currently trading around $343.77 , inside the region the chart marks as the Buy zone ($330.77 – $349.50) . This is the part worth pausing on. The zone is not a single mechanism — it is an FVG, an Order Block and a Flip zone occupying the same prices , running from the 0.236 retracement at $330.77 up to the 0.5 at $349.50 . When three independent reasons for demand overlap across the same band, the region carries far more weight than any one of them would alone.
Above price, the structure is laid out in clean steps: the 0.5 at $349.50 , then the 0.618 at $357.64 , then the 0.786, and above those the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 and $408.43 .
The Bias
Scenario A — the base case.
The structure suggests continuation higher from this region. Price is reacting from discount, inside a zone with three overlapping mechanisms, while the higher timeframe trend remains intact above the Protected Low. That is the profile of a correction being absorbed rather than a reversal forming.
The confirmation is specific, and it matters more than the zone itself. What I want to see is a candle close above the 0.618 at $357.64 on the 1H — and for that candle to leave a gap behind it. A close through the level tells us the level was taken. A gap left in the candle's wake tells us it was taken with force rather than drifted through. The two together are what separate a genuine reclaim from a slow grind that fails.
On that confirmation, the path opens toward the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 , and beyond it $408.43 . Each level cleared becomes the platform for the next — this is a sequence, and every stage depends on the one before it holding.
Scenario B — the invalidation.
The bullish case rests on this zone holding. If price loses the Buy zone and closes decisively beneath the 0.236 at $330.77 , the three mechanisms stacked there have failed rather than absorbed, and the correction becomes something deeper.
Structurally, the idea is only finished on a break of the Protected Low at $314.32 . That is the level that would end the higher timeframe trend, and price is not near it.
On execution.
The zone is where demand previously appeared. The 0.618 close is where the market proves it. Those are two different events, and treating them as one is how a good level turns into a bad entry.
And the rule that governs the whole idea: a break is a candle close, not a wick . A region this obvious is exactly where a spike through and an immediate reversal is most likely.
Fundamental Backdrop
The correction on this chart has a precise cause, and understanding it is what makes the structural case credible.
Alphabet reported Q2 on 22 July , and the quarter was genuinely strong. Revenue came in at $119.80bn, up 24% year-on-year , ahead of consensus near $117.02bn. Operating income rose 30% to $40.77bn at a 34% operating margin . The headline was Google Cloud, where revenue reached $24.8bn and accelerated to 82% growth on AI infrastructure demand, with nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 now using Gemini Enterprise. Management also disclosed that the Gemini app had reached 950 million monthly active users , processing roughly 22 billion API tokens per minute.
The stock fell anyway. The reason was spending: 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised to $195bn – $205bn , and the market repriced the cash flow implications immediately. Alphabet funded that programme aggressively, raising $49.6bn through a stock issuance in June and a further $20.3bn from senior unsecured notes during the quarter.
What matters for the technical read is what happened next. By early August the stock had recovered from that decline , which tells us the market worked through the capex concern rather than continuing to sell it. That recovery is the rally into $384.35 visible on this chart, and the pullback since is a retracement of it rather than a resumption of the earnings selloff.
The honest counterweight is that the spending question has not disappeared. A capex programme of that size funded partly by equity issuance and debt will keep pressure on free cash flow, and any quarter where Cloud growth decelerates while the bill keeps rising would be treated harshly. The bull case here depends on Cloud continuing to justify the investment, which makes the next earnings update the event that carries the most weight for the levels above.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.
Best Regards, BigBeluga 
Long
GOOGLE 12-year Channel Up says correction isn't over.Google (GOOG) has been trading within a 12-year Channel Up since its IPO and the recent April - May massive rally has made it hit the pattern's Top (Higher Highs trend-line) for the first time since November 2021.
That was the Top that kick-started the 2022 Bear Cycle, which declined by almost -45%, bottoming just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The latter has historically been the market's long-term Support (hence optimal buy entry) as it contained both the 2025 Tariffs flash crash and the 2020 COVID flash crash.
Technically this Channel Up displays strong similarities among those fractals and the fact that May hit its top and got rejected into a new pull-back that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), further supports this argument.
Those similarities are also reflected on their 1M RSI sequences that give a strong sense of cyclical behavior. What stands out on the 1M RSI is the 41.50 Support, which has delivered the market's two most optimal multi-year buy entries (June 2015 and December 2022). If such a test occurs, it goes without saying that it is an automatic long-term buy.
So with the recent Channel Up Top rejection, the probabilities for an extended technical Bearish Leg becomes stronger. Based on the price and RSI structure, the current fractal resembles ore the 2025 Tariffs crash, the 2020 COVID crash as well as the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War correction. As you can see, those crashes were preceded by smaller corrections (ellipse patterns). We already had that now during the recent February - March (U.S. - Iran war) pull-back.
As a result, we expect Alphabet Inc. to target at least $312.00 (representing a -23.04% decline from the Top, similar to August - December 2018 correction) and if the macro environment at the time favors more selling, then move to an additional test of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at $280.00 by the end of the year.
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GOOG at $355–360: Channel Breakout or Bull Trap?GOOG has rallied sharply from the lower boundary of its descending 4-hour channel near $315 and is now pressing the channel’s upper rail around $355–360. That zone also overlaps the $355 level highlighted in the attached Cramer post, but the chart—not the commentary—is the real decision-maker here.
Why it matters
The broader correction is still defined by lower highs inside a falling channel. A confirmed 4-hour close above the upper boundary, followed by acceptance above $360, would be the first meaningful sign that the structure is changing. A rejection here would keep the downtrend intact and turn this move into another rally into resistance.
What I expect next
Near term, I expect volatility and a battle around $355–360 rather than an effortless breakout. The bullish path is a clean close above $360 and follow-through, which would put $370–375 in play first, then the prior high near $404.44.
The bearish path is a rejection back below $355, opening a move toward $340 and the channel midpoint around $333.68. Losing $333 would raise the odds of a deeper retest toward the $315 area.
My base case: wait for confirmation. Above $360 with acceptance, momentum favors the bulls; below $355, the descending channel still controls the trade.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Short 
Short 
GOOG | Google Just Proved AI Is Worth Every PennyAlphabet Delivers Stunning Quarter but AI Spending Is Rewriting the Investment Story
Alphabet delivered one of the most eye catching earnings reports of the year, posting $119.8 billion in quarterly revenue and an astonishing $112 billion in net profit
At first glance, those numbers appear almost unbelievable but there is an important detail investors need to understand.. The overwhelming majority of that profit came from a $99 billion unrealized gain on Alphabet's equity investments, primarily driven by the soaring valuations of AI startup Anthropic and aerospace giant SpaceX . While this one time accounting gain dramatically inflated headline earnings, the company's underlying business was also exceptionally strong, showing that demand for Google's products and AI infrastructure continues to accelerate at an impressive pace
A Massive Investment Gain Boosted Earnings
The biggest story behind the earnings report was the nearly $99 billion paper gain recorded under other income. This was not generated by Alphabet's core operations but instead reflected the higher market value of strategic investments the company has made over the years
A major contributor was Anthropic, whose valuation surged from $380 billion to $965 billion in just three months as investor demand for leading AI companies continued to explode. Alphabet is believed to own roughly 14% of Anthropic, making it one of the largest beneficiaries of the startup's rapid appreciation. In addition, SpaceX's June IPO established a public market valuation for another long held Alphabet investment dating back to 2015
Although Alphabet did not disclose the exact contribution from each investment, these revaluations transformed what would have been a strong earnings report into a record breaking one
Core Business Performance Remains Outstanding
Even after excluding the massive investment gain, Alphabet's operating business continued to perform exceptionally well. Quarterly revenue climbed 24% year over year to $119.8 billion, beating Wall Street expectations by approximately $2.8 billion
Advertising remained the company's largest business, generating $81.6 billion, up 14% from a year earlier. Google Search once again led the way with $63.3 billion in revenue, representing 17% growth, demonstrating that search advertising remains remarkably resilient despite increasing competition from AI powered search tools. YouTube advertising also delivered healthy results, rising 13% to $11.1 billion, while Google Network revenue slipped slightly by 1% to $7.3 billion
Outside advertising, Alphabet continued to diversify its business. Revenue from subscriptions, platforms, and devices reached $12.9 billion, increasing 15% year over year, supported by services such as YouTube Premium, Google One subscriptions, and continued hardware sales
Google Cloud Becomes the Company's Fastest Growing Business
Perhaps the most impressive operating segment was Google Cloud, which generated $24.8 billion in revenue, representing an extraordinary 82% annual increase.. Demand for AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and enterprise AI services continues to surge as businesses race to integrate generative AI into their operations
Profitability also improved significantly. Alphabet's overall gross margin expanded to 62%, while operating margin increased to 34%, reflecting stronger efficiency across the business
The Services division, which includes advertising and other consumer products, achieved an impressive 42% operating margin, while Google Cloud delivered one of its strongest performances ever with a 36% operating margin, improving by an impressive 15 percentage points compared with last year. This demonstrates that Cloud is no longer just a growth engine it is becoming a major profit contributor as well
Strong Cash Generation Is Being Reinvested Into AI
Alphabet continued to generate enormous amounts of cash from its operations. Operating cash flow reached $39.1 billion, increasing 39% year over year, highlighting the strength of its underlying business
However, free cash flow turned negative, recording a $5.9 billion outflow, compared to generating $24.5 billion during the same period last year. The primary reason was a dramatic increase in capital expenditures as Alphabet aggressively invests in AI infrastructure, including new data centers, custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), networking equipment, and next gen computing capacity
Management now expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to reach approximately $200 billion, up from its previous estimate of $185 billion. This signals that nearly all of the company's operating cash flow will be reinvested into expanding AI capabilities. While this reduces near term free cash flow, management believes these investments are necessary to meet rapidly growing demand for AI services and to remain competitive against rivals such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta
A Fortress Balance Sheet Supports Long Term Growth
Despite its aggressive investment plans, Alphabet remains in an exceptionally strong financial position. The company ended the quarter with approximately $242.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing enormous financial flexibility. Long term debt stood at $98.2 billion, leaving Alphabet with a substantial net cash position even after accounting for its liabilities
This balance sheet allows the company to fund massive AI investments internally while continuing share repurchases, strategic acquisitions, and long term research initiatives without placing significant pressure on its finances
The biggest question now is whether Alphabet's enormous AI investments will generate returns that justify the unprecedented level of capital spending.. With demand for AI products currently exceeding available computing capacity, management appears willing to sacrifice short term free cash flow to build the infrastructure needed for long term leadership. If that strategy succeeds, today's record breaking spending could ultimately become the foundation for Google's next decade of growth.
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What Is Google's $100 Billion Hidden Asset Worth?A decade-old bet is about to surface on Alphabet's balance sheet. In 2015, Google wrote a roughly $900 million check to SpaceX at a $12 billion valuation. That position now anchors one of the largest unrealized gains in mega-cap tech.
An Alaska regulatory filing forced rare disclosure. Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) held 6.11% of SpaceX at the end of 2025. The February 2026 SpaceX-xAI merger diluted that to about 5%. Against a reported $1.75 trillion IPO target, the stake is worth near $100 billion.
For scale, that figure rivals an entire year of Alphabet net income. Google already booked a multibillion-dollar gain tied to its SpaceX position in early 2025. A pre-IPO mark this large reframes how investors should value $GOOGL.
Why the Stake De-Risks Alphabet
Most analysts model Alphabet on search, cloud, and YouTube. The SpaceX position sits outside that frame. It is a liquid-soon asset uncorrelated with ad cycles or rate moves.
Once SpaceX lists, Google gains optionality. It can hold for further upside or trim to fund hyperscale data centers. Either path strengthens the AI capital story without diluting shareholders or stressing the core business.
The strategic value compounds the financial one. Starlink already runs on Google Cloud, so the relationship generates recurring cloud revenue. The equity stake and the commercial tie reinforce each other.
The Real Space-Compute Angle
Google does have an orbital ambition, but it is its own program. Project Suncatcher pairs Google with Planet, not SpaceX. The plan launches two prototype satellites carrying Google TPUs by early 2027.
The goal is narrow and experimental. Engineers want to test whether TPUs survive radiation and shed heat in orbit. Suncatcher remains an R&D moonshot, not deployed infrastructure. SpaceX matters here only as a potential launch provider as costs fall.
Treat orbital data centers as a multi-year option, not current capacity. The near-term thesis rests on the equity windfall, not on servers in space.
Risks
The $1.75 trillion IPO valuation is a reported target, not a priced deal. Timing can slip, and private marks can compress in a weaker tape. The post-merger xAI structure adds complexity to what investors are actually buying.
Suncatcher faces hard physics. Thermal management, formation flying, and launch economics could stall the program. None of that should be modeled as revenue today.
Bottom Line
Alphabet's SpaceX stake turns a 2015 bet into a near-$100 billion catalyst. The story is the hidden asset and its liquidity, not speculative orbital empires. Watch the IPO filing and any partial monetization for the real signal. Long 
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