For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD. So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal...
📍 Overview
This chart comes after a conversation with @Alamakota. Brexit move played in this game was triggered in Jun 2016, you will notice on the Q chart how four years after buyers demonstrated a full retrace, before sellers rejected the highs and there we have the winning move. The UK is entering into the house of economic bondage in the ST and MT. Covid has...
We shall open the chapter on AUD with the Monthly chart and as usual work our way down towards the inner time frames. The aim for the frontal attack here comes with a double whammy from USD devaluation and Commodity appreciation. AUD buyers are aiming to carry out the deeply laid plan (although it was almost refuted after the Covid crisis) since the macro flows...
On the commodity currency front, looking for risk markets to reject the move quickly this week and trigger the flows towards USD. I recommended standing aside last week, and here I have been actively adding full sized AUDUSD shorts in the 0.660x handle. The healthy cleanse of USD longs in the antipodeans will make things a lot easier to trade with the next leg...
A normal move, but one which has a deeper meaning after the Chinese ban on Australian beef. Here tracking closely 0.650x resistance to mark another important high here. It is a clearly loud signal on the foreign policy side of their relationship considerably weakening, the Giant Panda (PBOC) who was once always on the AUD bid has taken cover.
While Australia...
Here we are tracking the bottom in AUDCAD ahead of important Labour data from AUD on Thursday.
On the AUD side there is still a lot of market slack which is keeping wage growth tepid. The Australian economy has been squeezed via China-US trade tensions, which weighed heavy on the Australian housing market via extended balance sheets. The monetary side has...
As mentioned in the channel update...
On the AUD side , RBA are expected to leave rates unchanged after the 50bp in June/July. Expecting the RBA to take a more upbeat and positive tone around early signs that house prices are stabilising, decent job creation and a sweet spot from fiscal and monetary stimulus.
In the UK, sadly politics once again in full...
Here we can see the market has completed a 5 wave sequence. The rebound we have seen from the cycle lows are starting to gain momentum and a break above the 200MA will trigger the momentum in the move.
Those following the live updates will already know we have been bullish on AUD since the 0.68 / 0.69 lows. The impulsive nature will be confirmed above 0.7127x...
Here the market is starting to show signs of putting in a hard floor after a long-term 5 wave sequence. Whilst we are trading the bottom in the range, the cycle lows have held so far which is sending loud messages that the downtrend is tired. A textbook double bottom pattern is in the making here at 0.683x.
If I am correct here and the market has put in the 5...
Here we can see the market held the bottom in the range since last year. This is arguably already a double bottom, with bears starting to unwind it can be viewed as the start of another impulsive move very similar in nature to that of the 2018 rally.
We came a few ticks away from clearing the lows, and now starting to see bulls come in again. Those following in...
