📍 NZDUSD Long Term Macro Map An ingenious saving move from buyers, which is extraordinarily difficult to defend. The slingshot, you should also note is an advance momentum play. These come around only once or twice in a cycle, in cramped positions you cannot afford to give opponents free tickets and allow them to make an easy ride. The shakeout was flawless, now...
It is evident that a general round of profit taking for buyers is called for, it will act as a catalyst to kickstart a fresh leg into USD and provide a helping hand from markets to put -ve rates back on the table for Fed. One more time it is all eyes on Equities, if those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery lose their tempo we can see blood on the streets. ...
A good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro...
This impulsive move is making its way through resistance like a knife and butter, the break implies that we are finally ready to start trading above 0.700x again as widely mentioned in previous ideas. After building a solid base we are entering in the 3rd wave of a 5-wave advance towards 0.703x. The minimum target for this 3rd wave is 0.681x, naturally this is...
On the RBNZ side, the cash rate was cut in early May to support Orr's outlook on employment and inflation with mentions of uncertainty around global economic growth. The initial slide in Yields and NZD (at the time markets were only 35% for a cut) was cooled via RBNZ's view that the move creates a more balanced outlook for rates. I am not expecting any further...