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Harmonic Patterns

The Interplay of Investors, Traders, and Policymakers1. The Global Trading Ecosystem: An Overview Global trading encompasses equity markets, bond markets, commodities, currencies (forex), derivatives, and alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. These markets operate across multiple time zones, making trading a 24-hour phenomenon. Capital flows seamlessly from one region to another in search of returns, safety, or diversification. This fluid movement is driven by information—economic data, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and policy decisions—which is instantly reflected in asset prices. Within this ecosystem, investors provide long-term capital, traders ensure liquidity and efficient pricing, and policymakers establish the rules of the game. The balance among these participants determines market confidence, volatility, and sustainability. 2. Investors: Long-Term Capital and Value Creation Investors are the cornerstone of global trading. They typically operate with a medium- to long-term horizon, aiming to grow wealth through appreciation, income, or both. Institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and endowments dominate global capital flows. Retail investors, though smaller individually, collectively have a significant impact, especially with the rise of online platforms. Investors focus on fundamentals—economic growth, corporate profitability, balance sheets, governance, and long-term trends such as demographics, technology, and climate transition. Their decisions determine where capital is allocated globally: emerging markets versus developed economies, equities versus bonds, or traditional industries versus new-age sectors. In global trading, investors also play a stabilizing role. By holding assets through market cycles, they help dampen excessive volatility. Long-term investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and innovation contribute to economic development and employment. However, shifts in investor sentiment—such as risk-on or risk-off behavior—can trigger massive cross-border capital movements, impacting currencies, interest rates, and asset prices worldwide. 3. Traders: Liquidity, Price Discovery, and Market Efficiency Traders operate on shorter time horizons compared to investors. They range from intraday and swing traders to high-frequency trading (HFT) firms and proprietary desks at global banks. Traders focus on price action, liquidity, volatility, and market psychology rather than long-term fundamentals. Their primary contribution to global trading is liquidity. By continuously buying and selling, traders ensure that markets remain active and that investors can enter or exit positions efficiently. This liquidity is crucial for accurate price discovery, allowing asset prices to reflect real-time information. In modern global markets, technology plays a dominant role. Algorithmic and quantitative trading strategies analyze massive datasets in milliseconds, exploiting small price inefficiencies across geographies and asset classes. While this enhances efficiency, it can also amplify short-term volatility, especially during periods of stress. Traders are highly sensitive to macroeconomic data releases, central bank announcements, geopolitical developments, and unexpected news. Their rapid reactions often cause sharp intraday movements, which can later be assessed and absorbed by longer-term investors. 4. Policymakers: Regulation, Stability, and Economic Direction Policymakers—governments, central banks, and regulatory authorities—set the framework within which global trading operates. Their decisions influence interest rates, inflation, currency values, capital flows, and investor confidence. Central banks play a particularly critical role. Through monetary policy tools such as interest rates, open market operations, and liquidity measures, they directly affect asset prices and risk appetite. For example, accommodative monetary policy tends to support equities and risk assets, while tightening cycles often strengthen currencies and pressure valuations. Fiscal policymakers influence markets through taxation, public spending, subsidies, and trade policies. Infrastructure spending can boost equities and commodities, while protectionist measures may disrupt global supply chains and increase market uncertainty. Regulatory bodies ensure market integrity by enforcing transparency, preventing fraud, managing systemic risk, and protecting investors. Well-designed regulation fosters confidence and long-term participation, while excessive or unpredictable regulation can deter capital and reduce market efficiency. 5. Interaction Between Investors, Traders, and Policymakers The global trading environment is shaped by the continuous interaction among these three groups. Policymaker actions influence investor expectations and trader behavior. Traders interpret policy signals instantly, often driving short-term price movements. Investors then reassess long-term implications and adjust portfolios accordingly. For example, a central bank’s indication of future rate cuts may trigger an immediate rally led by traders, followed by sustained inflows from investors reallocating capital toward growth assets. Conversely, unexpected policy tightening can cause sharp sell-offs, currency appreciation, and capital outflows from riskier markets. This interaction is not one-way. Market reactions also influence policymakers. Severe volatility, financial instability, or market crashes may prompt intervention through liquidity support, regulatory changes, or fiscal stimulus. Thus, global trading is a dynamic feedback loop rather than a static system. 6. Globalization, Geopolitics, and Cross-Border Complexity Global trading does not occur in isolation from political and geopolitical realities. Trade wars, sanctions, military conflicts, and diplomatic shifts can significantly alter capital flows and market structures. Investors reassess country risk, traders exploit volatility, and policymakers respond with strategic measures. Emerging markets are particularly sensitive to global capital flows driven by developed-market monetary policy. Changes in interest rates in major economies can influence currencies, bond yields, and equity markets worldwide, highlighting the asymmetry of global financial power. 7. Technology and the Future of Global Trading Advancements in technology continue to reshape global trading. Artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain, and digital assets are transforming how markets operate. Retail participation has expanded due to easy access to information and low-cost trading platforms, blurring the line between investors and traders. Policymakers face new challenges in regulating digital markets, managing systemic risks, and ensuring fair access while fostering innovation. The balance between efficiency, stability, and inclusivity will define the next phase of global trading. 8. Conclusion Global trading is a complex, interconnected system driven by the collective actions of investors, traders, and policymakers. Investors provide long-term capital and stability, traders ensure liquidity and efficient pricing, and policymakers set the economic and regulatory framework. Their interaction determines market direction, volatility, and resilience. In an increasingly globalized and technologically advanced world, understanding this interplay is crucial for navigating financial markets effectively. As economic power shifts, new asset classes emerge, and policy challenges grow, the role of global trading will remain central to shaping economic outcomes and wealth creation across the world.
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
1
Investment Logic: Why Gold Leads This Market CycleInvestment Logic Explained: Metals as the Preferred Asset in This Cycle The performance gap shown in the table is not accidental. It reflects a clear capital rotation driven by macroeconomic realities in 2025. While equities and Bitcoin struggled to generate real returns, precious metals led by gold emerged as the dominant beneficiaries of this cycle. This shift is rooted in monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and the market’s renewed focus on capital preservation rather than speculation. Gold: The Core Beneficiary of the 2025 Macro Environment Gold’s +67.3% appreciation this year is a direct response to persistent global uncertainty and a structural shift in monetary expectations. Central banks maintained a cautious stance as inflation remained sticky, while real yields compressed amid expectations of policy easing into 2026. In this environment, gold regained its role as the primary store of value offering protection against currency debasement, sovereign risk, and declining confidence in fiat systems. Importantly, gold’s rise was not driven by hype or leverage. It was supported by sustained institutional demand, central bank accumulation, and a steady increase in long-term holdings. This is the hallmark of a healthy, macro driven trend rather than a speculative rally. Silver and Platinum: Beta Plays on the Same Thesis Silver and platinum significantly outperformed gold, but their gains should be viewed as extensions of the same macro logic. As confidence in hard assets strengthened, capital flowed into metals with tighter supply dynamics and industrial demand exposure. These moves typically follow gold’s lead in the later stages of a precious metals cycle amplifying returns but also volatility. For professional traders, gold remains the anchor. Silver and platinum offer upside asymmetry, but gold defines the directional bias of the entire metals complex. Why Equities and Bitcoin Lagged The S&P’s modest +17.7% gain underscores a year dominated by valuation compression rather than expansion. Elevated rates, earnings uncertainty, and geopolitical risk limited upside. Bitcoin’s −9.3% decline further highlights the difference between speculative assets and defensive capital. As liquidity tightened and risk appetite normalized, capital favored assets with intrinsic value and macro credibility areas where gold excels and Bitcoin currently does not. Professional Takeaway: This Is a Capital Preservation Cycle This cycle is not about chasing exponential upside. It is about protecting purchasing power, managing risk, and aligning with macro flows. Gold sits at the center of this framework. Its performance reflects disciplined capital allocation by institutions, not retail enthusiasm. Until global monetary stability is restored and real yields turn decisively positive, gold is likely to remain a preferred asset. For traders, the message is clear: follow structure, follow liquidity, and respect macro regimes. In 2025, gold was not just a trade it was the benchmark for intelligent capital positioning.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by RexTraderGOLD
1
Commodity Super CycleA commodity super cycle refers to a prolonged period—often lasting a decade or more—during which commodity prices rise well above their long-term average due to sustained demand growth, structural supply constraints, and macroeconomic shifts. Unlike short-term commodity booms driven by temporary shocks, a super cycle is deeply rooted in transformational changes in the global economy. Understanding commodity super cycles is crucial for investors, policymakers, businesses, and economies that are heavily dependent on natural resources. Meaning and Concept of a Commodity Super Cycle A commodity super cycle is characterized by a long-term upward trend in prices across a broad range of commodities such as energy (oil, gas), metals (copper, aluminum, steel), agricultural products (grains, oilseeds), and precious metals. These cycles are not confined to one commodity; instead, they reflect a synchronized rise driven by systemic demand growth and limited supply responsiveness. Super cycles typically emerge when global demand accelerates faster than the ability of producers to expand supply. Because commodity production often requires heavy capital investment, long project timelines, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure development, supply cannot adjust quickly. This imbalance leads to persistent price increases over many years. Historical Commodity Super Cycles Historically, several commodity super cycles have shaped global economic trends: Industrial Revolution (late 19th century): Rapid industrialization in Europe and the United States led to surging demand for coal, iron, and steel. Post-World War II Reconstruction (1940s–1960s): Massive rebuilding efforts in Europe and Japan drove demand for energy, metals, and construction materials. China-led Super Cycle (early 2000s–2014): China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its infrastructure-heavy growth model triggered unprecedented demand for iron ore, copper, coal, cement, and oil. Each of these cycles was driven by structural economic transformation rather than short-term speculative activity. Key Drivers of a Commodity Super Cycle Several interconnected factors contribute to the formation of a commodity super cycle: 1. Structural Demand Growth The most powerful driver is sustained demand from large-scale economic transformation. Urbanization, industrialization, population growth, and rising incomes increase consumption of energy, metals, and food. For example, infrastructure development requires steel, cement, copper, and energy on a massive scale. 2. Supply Inelasticity Commodity supply is often slow to respond to rising prices. Mining projects, oil exploration, and agricultural expansion require long lead times, large capital expenditure, and regulatory approvals. This lag amplifies price increases during periods of strong demand. 3. Underinvestment in Capacity Extended periods of low commodity prices discourage investment in exploration and capacity expansion. When demand eventually recovers, the lack of new supply leads to shortages and sharp price increases—fueling a super cycle. 4. Monetary and Fiscal Policies Loose monetary policy, low interest rates, and expansionary fiscal spending can increase liquidity and stimulate commodity demand. Inflationary environments also drive investors toward commodities as a hedge against currency depreciation. 5. Geopolitical and Environmental Factors Geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, resource nationalism, and environmental regulations can disrupt supply chains. Climate change policies and decarbonization efforts may restrict fossil fuel investments while boosting demand for metals used in renewable energy and electric vehicles. Phases of a Commodity Super Cycle A typical commodity super cycle progresses through several phases: Recovery Phase: Prices begin to rise from depressed levels as demand improves and supply remains constrained. Acceleration Phase: Strong economic growth, increased investment demand, and tight supply conditions push prices sharply higher. Peak Phase: Prices reach extreme levels, attracting massive capital investment and speculative activity. Correction and Decline: New supply comes online, demand growth slows, and prices gradually normalize or decline. Understanding these phases helps investors and businesses make informed long-term decisions. Current Context: Is the World Entering a New Commodity Super Cycle? In recent years, many analysts have debated the possibility of a new commodity super cycle. Several structural trends support this view: Energy Transition: The shift toward renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery storage has dramatically increased demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth metals. Infrastructure Spending: Large-scale infrastructure programs across major economies are boosting demand for steel, cement, and industrial metals. Supply Constraints: Years of underinvestment in mining and energy exploration have limited supply growth. Geopolitical Fragmentation: Trade tensions, sanctions, and reshoring of supply chains are increasing costs and reducing efficiency. Climate Policies: Environmental regulations restrict new fossil fuel projects, tightening supply even as energy demand remains strong. However, technological innovation, recycling, substitution, and demand moderation can temper the longevity of any super cycle. Impact of Commodity Super Cycles On Economies Commodity-exporting countries benefit from higher export revenues, improved fiscal balances, and stronger currencies. Conversely, commodity-importing nations face higher input costs, inflationary pressures, and trade deficits. On Inflation Rising commodity prices feed directly into inflation through higher fuel, food, and manufacturing costs. Central banks often face challenges balancing growth and price stability during super cycles. On Financial Markets Equity markets see sectoral shifts, with strong performance in energy, mining, and materials stocks. Commodity-linked currencies tend to appreciate, while bond markets may experience pressure due to inflation concerns. On Corporate Strategy Businesses dependent on commodities must manage price volatility through hedging, long-term contracts, and diversification. Capital allocation decisions become critical during high-price environments. Risks and Limitations of Commodity Super Cycles While super cycles can be profitable, they also carry significant risks: Overinvestment: Excessive capital expenditure at peak prices can lead to oversupply and sharp price collapses. Technological Disruption: Innovation can reduce demand or create substitutes, limiting price sustainability. Policy Shifts: Sudden changes in trade, taxation, or environmental policy can alter supply-demand dynamics. Global Economic Slowdowns: Recessions can abruptly weaken demand and end a super cycle prematurely. Conclusion A commodity super cycle is a powerful economic phenomenon driven by long-term structural changes rather than short-term market fluctuations. It reflects the deep interconnection between global growth, resource availability, technological progress, and policy frameworks. While super cycles offer substantial opportunities for resource-rich economies and investors, they also pose challenges related to inflation, volatility, and sustainability. In the current global environment—marked by energy transition, infrastructure expansion, geopolitical realignment, and supply constraints—the foundations for a new commodity super cycle appear plausible. However, the ultimate trajectory will depend on how effectively economies balance growth, innovation, and environmental responsibility. For market participants, a disciplined, long-term perspective remains essential when navigating the powerful forces of a commodity super cycle.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
GOLD H4 | Potential Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off our buy entry level at 4,343.11, whichis a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 4,265.18, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 4,446.51, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
1
EURCHF H4 | Bearish Reversal Off 38.2% Fib ResistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to our sell entry level at 0.93134, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 0.93324, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 0.92595, whichis a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (
Short
by FXCM
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.17949 💰TP: 1.19024 ⛔️SL: 1.17435 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The euro is expected to continue rising later this year. We may see the biggest move next year, especially at the beginning. The price is testing resistance near 1.18000 for the third time, and the accumulation of volume will only add to the potential context for an upward breakout. The upside target is seen near 1.19000. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
Long
by StopLoss222
1
Gold: Weak recovery and range-bound consolidation.Gold is currently in a phase of low-range consolidation and recovery following the sharp plunge. The short-term trend is dominated by bearish momentum, but oversold conditions have sparked a mild technical rebound. The core mid-term bullish drivers remain intact, leaving the market to trade primarily in a pattern of weak recovery and range-bound consolidation. Support Levels: Core Support: 4300 (a key psychological round number and intraday low), 4310–4315 (the 20-day moving average support zone; a firm hold here could extend the rebound). Secondary Support: 4280–4290 (a level for extreme pullback tests; a breakdown would open further downside potential). Resistance Levels: Core Resistance: 4380–4400 (5-day moving average pressure and a key resistance zone for post-plunge rebounds, posing significant breakout challenges), 4450 (a previous consolidation platform and a strong resistance level for bullish counterattacks). Secondary Resistance: 4430 (10-day moving average resistance level), 4460 (the crossover point of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, facing notable technical selling pressure). Trading Strategy: Sell 4380 - 4400 SL 4415 TP 4430 - 4420 Buy 4300 - 4310 SL 4285 TP 4350 - 4360
PYTH:XAUUSD
by LouisJack66_trade
PTLO Portillo's Inc.Portillo's Inc. (NASDAQ: PTLO) is a fast-casual restaurant chain specializing in Chicago-style favorites like hot dogs, Italian beef sandwiches, chocolate cake shakes, and cheese fries. Founded in 1963, it went public in October 2021 and has expanded from its Illinois roots into markets like Arizona, Texas, Florida, and others, with a focus on drive-thru, dine-in, and catering. As of late 2025, it operates around 80-90 locations, emphasizing high unit volumes and brand loyalty, though recent expansion has been tempered by industry headwinds. Growth Trends: Total assets have grown steadily from ~$1B to $1.5B in assets. Revenue has risen ~33% since 2021, driven by new locations. Net income turned positive in 2022 and has improved, reflecting better operational efficiency. 2025 Outlook (Company Guidance): Full-year revenue projected at $730M–$733M, implying modest ~3% growth from 2024. Recent quarters show slowing momentum (e.g., Q2 revenue up 3.6%, Q3 up 1.8%), with same-store sales turning slightly negative in Q3 due to traffic declines—a common issue in the restaurant sector amid inflation and consumer caution. Long-term debt is around $300M (as of mid-2025 analyses), with gradual paydowns. The company has ~$890M in equity attributable to noncontrolling interests, reflecting its structure post-IPO.Is Portillo's Failing?No, Portillo's is not failing—it's profitable, expanding (albeit at a slower pace), and maintaining positive revenue growth. However, it's facing challenges typical of the restaurant industry in 2025:Positive Indicators: Consistent profitability since 2022, strong brand in core markets, high average unit volumes (~$8M+ per location, above peers like Chipotle), and strategic shifts to prioritize profitable growth over rapid expansion. Analyst ratings are generally positive (5 overweight/outperform, 2 neutral), with an average 12-month price target of $16.43 (high $20, low $13)—suggesting upside from current levels. Challenges: Recent earnings misses (e.g., Q3 2025 profits fell sharply due to cost pressures and a 2.2% transaction decline). Same-store sales dipped negative in Q3, prompting a "strategic reset" to slow new openings (targeting 9-11 in 2025 vs. prior aggressive plans) and focus on core Midwest/Sun Belt markets. Stock has been volatile, with declines on misses but rebounds on positive updates (e.g., up 10% after a May 2025 mention at Berkshire Hathaway's meeting, though unrelated to ownership). Overall, it's in a slowdown phase but financially healthy with room for recovery. Not a distress situation like bankruptcies in the sector (e.g., some casual dining chains), but sensitive to consumer spending. PTLO shares are currently trading around $4.63 (bid $4.61, ask $4.65 as of December 30, 2025, 00:55 ET). The stock IPO'd at ~$20–$30 in late 2021 and peaked near $40, but has trended down amid market pressures and growth concerns—down ~78% from highs, making it potentially undervalued for long-term investors.
NASDAQ:PTLOLong
by K3vl4rL4bs
Bullish bounce off?Silver (XAG/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 70.79 1st Support: 68.17 1st Resistance: 80.70 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
ICMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by IC Markets
Bearish momentum to extend further?Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.3773 1st Support: 1.3655 1st Resistance: 1.3773 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
Bearish drop off 50% Fib resistance?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support, which has been identified as an overlap support. Pivot: 156.68 1st Support: 155.31 1st Resistance: 157.26 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
BTC/USD: Bitcoin Stalls Near 90,000 as Safe-Haven Demand Caps Symbol: BTCUSD Timeframe: Intraday / H4 Trend: Medium-term bearish Structure: Descending channel, range-bound consolidation ⸻ Market Overview BTC/USD rebounded toward 90,000, but the move lacks strong conviction. Despite talk of geopolitical de-escalation, broader sentiment remains negative as capital continues to flow into gold and silver, which are setting new all-time highs. Persistent ETF outflows and an extended stay of the Fear & Greed Index in “extreme fear” keep upside attempts fragile. The market remains cautious, and any recovery currently looks corrective rather than trend-changing. ⸻ Technical Picture • Price capped below Murray and BB midline • Trading inside a medium-term downtrend • No confirmed breakout from the recent consolidation Indicators • Bollinger Bands: turning down • MACD: below zero • Stochastic: attempting to turn higher (corrective signal only) Bias: Bearish / range-to-downside ⸻ Key Levels Resistance • 93,750.00 • 100,000.00 • 106,250.00 Support • 84,365.00 • 75,000.00 • 68,750.00 ⸻ Trading Scenarios Primary scenario — bearish continuation • SELL STOP: 84,300.00 • Targets: 75,000.00 → 68,750.00 • Stop-loss: 90,600.00 • Horizon: 5–7 days Alternative scenario — bullish breakout • BUY STOP: 93,800.00 • Targets: 100,000.00 → 106,250.00 • Stop-loss: 88,600.00 ⸻ Conclusion As long as BTC/USD trades below 93,750, upside remains limited and corrective. A confirmed breakdown below 84,365 would likely accelerate losses toward 75,000 and 68,750. Only a clean breakout above 93,750 would invalidate the bearish setup and reopen the path toward six-figure levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by John_Isige
Bearish drop off?Swissie (USD/CHF) could rise to the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.7922 1st Support: 0.7861 1st Resistance: 0.7968 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
Could we see a reversal on the Kiwi?Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% FIbonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.5822 1st Support: 0.5798 1st Resistance: 0.5834 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
Falling towards pullback support?Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the swing h igh resistance. Pivot: 1.3439 1st Support: 1.3383 1st Resistance: 1.3534 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Long
by IC Markets