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Harmonic Patterns

How Overconfidence Destroys Profitable TradersHow Overconfidence Destroys Profitable Traders Understanding Overconfidence in Trading Welcome everyone to another article. One of the most dangerous stages a trader can walk into is not fear… but overconfidence. (EGO) Overconfidence in trading is essentially ego. However, there is still an important difference: - Confidence is a real belief built on proof, statistics, and discipline. - Overconfidence is an inflated belief in your ability beyond the proof. This is driven by ego. Many traders do not fail because they do not know enough. They fail because at some point, they believe they know enough or know “everything.” What Overconfidence appears as in Trading: A trader builds a system. ( yay! ) They go on a clean winning streak maybe 10, 12, even 15 profitable trades in a row. At this point, the trader begins to think and assume: “ I’ve cracked the code. ” - Risk gets increased . - Position sizes get bigger . - Rules start to bend . Confidence continues grow until it crosses a dangerous path where belief is no longer supported by data, statistics and proof. Reality eventually steps in. You will never again feel as confident as you did during your first major winning streak when it looked like the market finally made sense and success was “ figured out. ” That feeling is exactly what traps traders. Overconfidence WILL break Risk Management Overconfidence destroys a trader by slowly dismantling their risk management, their system, their discipline, their psychology and their consistency. It rarely happens all at once. First: - “ I’ll just risk a little more this time. ” - “ This setup looks perfect. ” - “ I’m on a winning streak. ” Over time, the trader begins to: • Ignore position sizing rules ( Too many LOTS or contracts ) • Move stop losses (Increases risk) • Add to losing trades ( Does not accept the original loss ) • Trade larger to “maximize opportunity” (Stick to what you can afford to lose ) The trader thinks and believes the system will continue to work, because it worked before. But markets do not reward belief, they reward discipline. (I have mentioned this many times in my previous posts.) Once risk management breaks, even a profitable system becomes dangerous and can lead to zero profits, or even down to negatives. Overconfidence Blocks Positive criticism and continuous Learning There is no such thing and there will never be a 100% perfecto trading system/strategy. Losses are part of the game. Overconfident traders struggle when reality does not meet their expectations. Instead of adapting to the market by adjusting their strategy they: - Resist feedback (Or consider any feedback as hate/negative criticism) - Ignore changing market conditions (Consolidation, flat lining, barcoding etc) - Refuse to admit the system is underperforming (Bad performance & results) - Believe the problem can’t be them (“It’s not the system, it’s the computer!”) But Why…? Well because… their mind keeps rewinding the dopamine high from when everything worked perfectly and the win rate was 99% They only remember the wins, and “ GREEN ” $$$ %%% not the probability. The exact moment a trader believes they “can’t be wrong,” learning comes to a halt. And in trading, when learning stops, losses accelerate, revenge trading increase, risk management collapses, and consistency becomes scrambled. Overconfidence changes Traders into > Gamblers Overconfidence does not just cause losses it can also change behavior. Frustration from unexpected losses turns into: - Anger - Impatience - Forced trades - Revenge trading Rules get ignored. Emotions take control. The trader may still look like a trader, but they are acting like a gambler. The most dangerous part? They still believe they are right… Example: How Overconfidence Destroyed a Profitable Trader Let’s look at Bobby. Bobby was a profitable trader. A very successful one in his 4th year of trading. He discovered what he believed was a 99% win-rate system. The first month was incredible. The second month was just as good. Cash flowing in, heaps of green. By the third month, losses started to appear. Instead of falling back, taking a breather and reassessing , Bobby doubled down. Continuing to trade the same system despite clear signs of underperformance. He was no longer focusing on perfect executions and setups, he was chasing the high. Losses turned into frustration . Frustration turned into anger . Anger turned into impatience . Soon Bobby was: • Forcing trades • Revenge trading • Ignoring risk management Bobby refused to take responsibility. “It was my internet.” “My computer lagged.” “My family distraccted me.” The excuses piled up, but the account kept shrinking. Bobby did not fail because of the system. Bobby failed because ego stopped him from adapting to the market and adjusting his system. Markets Will Always Humble Ego Markets will humble traders in ways they never expect. No matter how experienced you are, there is always something else to learn. Trading is not a destination, it is a constant process of adaptation towards the market. Traders who believe they “know everything” will always be reminded by the market that They. Do. Not. Overconfidence doesn’t end trading careers immediately. But it slowly erodes them trade by trade turning it into mental torture. Final Thoughts Confidence is necessary to trade.. But Ego is fatal! The very moment a trader believes they have cracked the code is often the moment their decline begins. Stay humble. Respect risk. Let statistics, not emotion, guide your decisions. Because in trading, the market doesn’t punish ignorance it punishes ego.
Education
by King_BennyBag
39
Chapter IV: Own Yourself The shop felt different that morning. Not quieter ... just still. Like the air knew something was about to change before anyone said a word. The Apprentice stood at the doorway with a small backpack slung over his shoulder. His hands were steady, but his breath wasn’t. He looked around the shop the workbench where he’d first fumbled a wrench, the corner where he’d stared at charts until his eyes blurred, the mirror that had once shown him more truth than he wanted to see. The Mentor stepped out from behind the bench, wiping grease from his palms. “So,” he said softly, “you’re heading out.” The Apprentice nodded. “I think it’s time.” The Mechanic leaned against the tool chest, arms crossed. “You sure you’re ready? Out there, nobody’s gonna explain things twice.” The Apprentice smirked. “You barely explained them once.” The Mechanic grinned. “Fair.” The Mentor approached, his expression somewhere between pride and worry. “You’ve learned the tools that matter the ones that don’t rust. Mirrors, reflections, candlesticks, maps. But there’s one lesson you can’t learn here.” The Apprentice waited. “Owning yourself.” The Mentor tapped his chest. “That’s the part you have to figure out on your own.” The Apprentice frowned. “What does that mean?” The Mechanic answered first. “It means when you mess up — and you will — you don’t blame the tools, the market, the shop, or the teacher. You take responsibility. You fix it. You grow.” The Mentor added, “And when you succeed, you don’t pretend it was luck. You own that too.” The Apprentice looked down at his hands... the same hands that once trembled holding a wrench, the same hands that had hovered nervously over a chart. Now they felt capable. “Where do I go?” he asked. The Mentor smiled. “Anywhere. The map isn’t the chart. The map is you.” The Mechanic reached into a drawer and tossed him a small, worn socket — the one the Apprentice had dropped on his first day. “A reminder,” he said. “Mistakes are part of the job. What you do after them is what counts.” The Apprentice caught it, feeling the weight of metal and memory. He stepped toward the door, then paused. “Will I see you again?” The Mentor shrugged. “Maybe. Maybe not. But you’ll hear us. Every time you hesitate, every time you doubt, every time you’re about to do something reckless... we’ll be there.” The Mechanic smirked. “Especially the reckless part.” The Apprentice laughed, then turned and walked out into the sunlight. The door closed behind him with a soft click. For a long moment, the shop was still. Then the Mentor exhaled. “He’ll be alright.” The Mechanic nodded. “He’s got the tools.” And somewhere down the road, the Apprentice walked toward a future he didn’t fully understand... carrying the lessons of the shop, the weight of the socket, and the quiet confidence of someone finally ready to own himself.
TVC:GOLD
by uti682375
Could we see a reversal from here?KIWI (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is also an overlap resistance. Pivot: 0.5744 1st Support: 0.5713 1st Resistance: 0.5792 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Long
by IC Markets
Bearish drop?Aussie (AUD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support, which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Pivot: 0.6685 1st Support: 0.6633 1st Resistance: 0.6721 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
AXISBANK – Inverse Harmonic completion → Bearish (Jan Option)On the daily chart, AXISBANK has completed an inverse harmonic structure (X-A-B-C-D) and price reacted sharply from the D-point PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). The rally into D looks like the “final leg” of the pattern and we’re now seeing rejection + loss of bullish follow-through — which keeps the bearish reversal thesis active. Why this looks bearish (chart confluence) Harmonic completion at D (PRZ): Pattern completes near a key retracement/extension cluster (your harmonic ratios marked on chart). Supply zone + rejection: The PRZ aligns with a strong overhead supply region where price struggled to sustain. Breakdown trigger level identified: The 1246.5 zone is the key “line in the sand” for confirmation (break & hold below / breakdown + retest). Downside magnet zones: 1123.85 is a major horizontal support area and also aligns with the rising trendline support projection (confluence target). Trade Plan (as per chart) ✅ Entry trigger (wait for confirmation) Entry: Below 1246.5 (preferably daily close below, or breakdown → pullback retest → rejection for cleaner entry) 🛑 Invalidation SL: 1262.1 (keep it strict — if price reclaims and holds above, the breakdown thesis weakens) 🎯 Targets Primary Target: 1123.85 (Optional trade management) Consider partial booking near psychological / minor supports on the way down (to reduce risk), then trail for the main target. How I’ll manage it (practical execution) If price breaks 1246.5 impulsively, I prefer not chasing. I’ll wait for a pullback to 1246–1250 and look for rejection. If we get a weak bounce but price stays below 1262, the structure still favors sellers. Once price starts moving in favor, reduce risk quickly (trail SL / partials), because banking stocks can snap back fast. Jan Options Idea (if you’re planning options) Bias: Short setup = Put-side view Prefer ATM/ITM puts for better delta (less decay pain than far OTM). Conservative approach: Bear Put Spread (reduces premium + theta pressure), hold for the swing toward 1123 zone. (This is based purely on the technical setup shown.) Levels on chart: Entry: 1246.5 | SL: 1262.1 | TG: 1123.85 I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This idea is shared purely for educational and study purposes. Please do your own analysis or consult a certified financial advisor before taking any trades. #AXISBANK #HarmonicPattern #BearishBat #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsTrading #NSE #PriceAction #TradingView
NSE:AXISBANKShort
by salaisargunansp
Gold - The -50% correction is starting!🎯Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is starting a -50% correction: 🔎Analysis summary: For the past 10 years, we have been witnessing an underlying bullrun on Gold. Just like we saw back in 2011, the 10 year bullrun was followed by a correction of -50%. Together with the retest of the ultimate resistance trendline, Gold is now clearly shifting bearish. 📝Levels to watch: $4,500 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
FX:XAUUSDShort
by SwingTraderPhil
61
Gold - This metal is collpasing very soon!😱Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is preparing a major dump: 🔎Analysis summary: Gold has been rallying an incredible +175% over the course of the past couple of months. But at this exact moment, Gold is retesting the ultimate resistance trendline. Considering that Gold is totally overextended, we will see a harsh drop in the very near future on Gold. 📝Levels to watch: $4,500 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SwingTraderPhil
22
XAUUSD SELL SETUP ACTIVE📉 GOLD SELL | Precision Setup at Resistance 🔥 Gold is reacting from a strong supply / resistance zone, showing signs of buyer exhaustion. Market structure favors a short move as long as price stays below the invalidation level. 🔓 Entry: 4520- 4525 ❌ Stop Loss: 4535 (structure break) 🎯 Target: 4496 ⚠️ Wait for confirmation, manage risk strictly. Clean setup. Calm execution. No emotions. 💡 Educational purpose only — not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LEO_TRADES98
XAUUSD Buy Setup | Strong Support + Bullish Structure📌 Trade Plan: 🔓 Entry: 4455 - 4460 ❌ Stop Loss: 4440 🎯 Target: 4480 NEXT Target 4500 Gold (XAUUSD) is showing bullish strength after holding a key demand zone, and price action suggests buyers are stepping in from support. A buy position is considered in the 4455–4460 zone with a well-defined stop loss below 4440 to manage risk. If bullish momentum continues, the first upside target is 4480, while the final target is placed near 4500, aligning with the next resistance area. Trade is based on structure, support validation, and controlled risk management.
TVC:GOLDLong
by LEO_TRADES98
GOLD BUY TODAY | Demand Zone Holding, Upside Targets Open🔓 Entry: 4380 – 4390 ❌ Stop Loss: 4365 🎯 Target: 4430 Next Target: 4450 GOLD BUY (XAUUSD) Price is holding above a key demand zone with bullish price action and trend support intact. Looking for upside continuation as buyers remain in control. A sustained move higher can push price toward the next resistance levels. Trade is planned with clear risk management and favorable risk-reward, suitable for intraday to short-term continuation.
TVC:GOLDLong
by LEO_TRADES98
5
Potential bearish reversal?Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which is a pullback support. Pivot: 1.1749 1st Support: 1.1680 1st Resistance: 1.1806 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
Bitcoin defends its territory as 2026 hits!Happy New Year. I hope your trading is successful going forwards. I honestly believe that everything you need to be a consistently profit taker in the markets, is available right here. In moments gone by, I have paid some big subscriptions fees to courses, AI Apps etc, stuff that did not stack-up or offer any use except torment me for the crazy high price. This video is not financial advice. It's infomercial only. Hopefully entertaining as well. It's me live trading on 1st January 2026. I'm living in one of those 1st time zones. Its the NY session and last one for the 1st quarter century. This is what I coin dynamic trading, it emphasis is not only 1 second and 5 second charts but toggling through all the important TF's. Patterns emerge, and learning market structure can be more readily understood as the patterns and dynamic graphics occur faster.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by MusicalNightz
2
Bullish breakout?US Dollar index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 98.16 1st Support: 97.87 1st Resistance: 98.76 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
TVC:DXYLong
by IC Markets
1
Bullish breakout?GER40 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 24,502.39 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 24,236.74 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 25,145.30 Why we like it: There is a resistance level at the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:GER40Long
by Vantage
Heading towards key resistance?EUR/CHF is rising towards the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.92574 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.93628 Why we lik eit: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.92574 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage