XAUUSD backs after Holiday H4-D1 Timeframe Commantary & Setup
As long as price respects the rising wedge bottom trendline and remains above 4230 , the broader upside Bullish bias stays intact.
The 4240–4220 zone stands out as a strong demand area where buyers may step in and defend price.
Targets: 4345 -4430
Secondly confirmed break below the trendline any H4 or D1 stay out from buys.
Harmonic Patterns
Sell From 4537 order block TP 4360 and 4300After reviewing the movements of the gold futures on different time chart patterns, I anticipate that the gold futures have tested a record peak today at $4561.40 despite thin post-Christmas trading volumes, look ripe enough to repeat a single-day slide, seen after testing a record high in October this year as this momentum based rally could melt down as advent of sudden sell off is likely to start from here as the futures have already started to reverse amid surging acrophobia among the bulls.
Undoubtedly, gold futures fail to test the immediate monthly resistance at $4563, according to the ‘Gann Square’ chart, and look ready to reverse from here if they break down below the immediate support at $4398 in today’s trading session.
I find that the current rally in gold remains at extreme risk, as liquidity is likely to remain thin through the holiday period. Price swings could be exaggerated and trigger a steep fall, as seen on October 20 this year.
Undoubtedly, such steep fall appears when most of the analysts turn over confident about the strength of a rally while the money started to shift towards other risky assets whenever gold test a record high while the digital gold (Bitcoin) is trading at a major support at the $86575 from where a sharp reversal is expected to test the immediate resistance at $107488, before the end of this year.
UBS believes the scale of the rally appears “somewhat unhinged,” arguing that it is “difficult to pinpoint a precise trigger” that fully explains the strength and speed of the move.
I find that amid growing uncertainty over the lack of clarity around the rally’s drivers means a sharp pull back as I have already explained in my previous analyses that how the current momentum generated in October despite non-availability of relevant economic data due to 43-day-long Federal government shutdown which resulted in continuity of rally in gold futures despite sharp pull back of more than 12% from tested-peak on Oct. 20, still trying to sustain despite hawkish guidelines by Federal Reserve on future rate cuts.
Scalp Setup Explanation / Overall Market AnalysisWhat's up Traders -
Aside from my charming personality, this video Includes:
- Detailed description of a Short Scalp on the Nazzy
- Brief review of the Japanese Bond and Currency Markets
- Brief overall take on the Indices, Gold & Silver.
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year, and the best of luck, in their trading.
- WillNix
Amd - This stock is just crashing!🎯Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is clearly heading lower:
🔎Analysis summary:
After we witnessed a major bullish break and retest in April of 2025, Amd rallied about +150%. But with the recent rejection at the major resistance trendline, Amd is now reversing. Following this bearish market structure, Amd can still correct about -25%.
📝Levels to watch:
$150
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
XRP – Scaling In, Not RushingAt the current market conditions, XRP is in a zone where partial exposure makes sense —
not full commitment, not emotional entries.
From a structure and risk perspective:
• The market is not finished yet
• Volatility still needs resolution
• Better prices may appear
That’s why my approach is capital distribution, not all-in decisions.
You can:
✔️ Allocate a small portion of your capital here
✔️ Stay patient with the rest
✔️ Wait for confirmation and next levels
I will clearly share where and when the next entries make sense.
No rush.
No pressure.
No guessing.
Trading is not about catching everything at once —
it’s about staying aligned with structure and protecting capital.
You’re not alone in this process.
I’m here, step by step.
Happy New Year S&P 500: Why I am BULLISH on Stocks for 2026.Hello There,
in the recent year, the S&P 500 has formed historical volatilities to the upside and downside while still sustaining the underlying trend. Several important factors drove the major price moves seen in the past year. Considering these fundamentals, I have detected important fundamental and technical signs that should be considered when preparing potential market participation for 2026.
In 2025, the major price moves that were recorded in the price actions resulted from crucial fiscal decisions. The main decline right at the beginning of the year due to tariff increases resulted in a drop of over -20% for the index. While this seemed to be a doomsday scenario for the whole market and a potential setup of a year-long bear market, the markets could quickly recover again and form several new highs.
The major price move that resulted from the market recovery gave the implication that the bull market won't be over so far, as prices reached far beyond the previous all-time high already. What is important here is that this price move was also supported by increased bullish volume, making it a fundamentally strong price action that is also likely to continue within 2026.
FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE
There are also several fundamental signs that are main implications for my consideration of a huge bull market continuation in 2026. These factors determine the underlying bullishness of the market from an economic perspective, supporting also the technical factors seen in my chart. There I am pointing out the most determining fundamental factors to consider here.
___________________________________________
Sustained GDP Growth and All-Time-High Demand
___________________________________________
Considering the important macroeconomic dynamics of the underlying fundamentals. The year 2025 has shown great increases within the U.S. GDP, continuing with the main uptrend of GDP growth. This has been supported by subsequent interest rate decreases. It is important to note here that the U.S. volume share of the S&P 500 accounts for almost 72% of the total volume of the index, making the U.S. volume entering from the economy the most important factor of price growth.
Also, the expectations of interest rate drops as well as inflation declines create a main bullish environment, which is offering an underlying bullishness from a fundamental perspective. With decreasing inflationary pressures, the interest rates are also likely to decrease, creating a dynamic that is supporting further investments into the index. Considering the forecasts, this will create a bullish dynamic, especially in Q2 and Q3, when the forecasted expectations turn out in reality.
____________________________
Nominal Interest Rate Decreases
____________________________
The decreasing nominal interest rates are a strong sign of the market turning more and more bullish. In the past year, the FED lowered the interest rates subsequently to lower levels. Creating a strong demand for money and investments in the market. These drivers were also particularly important for the price action holding to the upside and not declining more after the major drop at the beginning of the year.
It is highly likely that interest rates will decline further in 2026, creating further bullish underlying fundamental factors, increasing money demand and investment. This adds to the overall bullish expectations and considerations of forecasts for 2026. It will also be an interesting indication to follow for Q1 and Q2 and see how the FED considers further rate declines.
___________________________________________
An Bullish Sentiment Determined by the VIX Index
___________________________________________
This is an indicator especially important for the S&P 500 Index. It measures the market expectations of volatility derived from options prices. A low VIX index signals a bullish sentiment with a high risk tolerance, and firms are likely to invest more. A high VIX index signals a bearish sentiment with a high risk aversion, and the firms are not likely to invest more than necessary.
Throughout the year of 2025, the index was, the vast majority of the time, below the 15 threshold. With an average VIX of 15, this is a very bullish base that has built up in the year 2025. Especially in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, the index kept several times below the 15 threshold. This dynamic signals firms and investors willingness to invest more in the market and get ready for further bullish moves in 2026.
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE
Major Historical Ascending Trend Channel
As seen in my chart, the S&P 500 index is still trading within this huge and sustained uptrend channel. Within this channel, the index already bounced several times in this massively important and crucial lower bullish accumulation zone, especially followed by many famous investors pointing out supporting facts about the bullish dynamics. This channel is not yet broken, and the index already had the ability to visit the middle line of the channel, making it highly likely that the index will also bounce till the upper boundary of the channel again.
Bollinger Bands Tightening and Breakout Expectations
The Bollinger Bands indication is very interesting to consider. Because this constellation is now actually tightening above the middle line of the historical accelerating channel. Also, the index is bouncing above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. As the bands tighten, they get ready for a major breakout and expansion of the bands towards the upside. What is also important here is that they follow the overall uptrend and EMA structure. An upthrust within this Bollinger Band dynamic is very likely to occur.
Substantial and Sustained Fibonacci Extensions
The index is still trading within a major Fibonacci extension. With the major waves 1 and 2 already completed. Now the index moves forward with expanding the wave 3 towards the upside. Within this dynamic, it is very interesting to see that the first 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the first wave has already been reached. After this level is reached, the next target is the next higher Fibonacci level of 2.618. As the uptrend is still going on and the Fibonacci extension is holding, this is the next reasonable target. The target also matches with the huge ascending uptrend.
Strong Volume Supporting Bounces in the Channel
The bounces from the lower boundary of the uptrend channel were severely supported by major volume spikes. This is very important in an uptrend; the volume spikes have to correspondingly support the uptrend dynamics. The spikes were always conducted when a major bottom and the following uptrend bounce had been formed. As the substantial volume is holding on, it will be an important driver for further bullish price action throughout the year. Therefore, especially if volume should increase in the next term, it will offer additional support.
EMA-Support and Overall Trend Dynamics
The whole uptrend is still holding above the whole main EMA structure. Also greatly to consider here is that the EMA bounce occurred in March 2023, as also the market was able to recover from the inherent dynamic. The trend is still holding above the EMAs, and if a pullback should occur, the EMAs will be strong supports, likely holding the trend to the upside. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios that are most likely. The first is the uptrend just goes on, and the second is a pullback into support zones happens from where a stabilizing bullish price action can establish the further bullish uptrend.
CONCLUSION AND PROJECTIONS
Taking all of these important considerations into account, Q1 will be very decisive. Especially in price action, Q1 will set up how the rest of the year will move forward in price action. Therefore, there are two main scenarios that should be highly necessarily considered. The first is the uptrend dynamic as it currently established just goes on till the upper target zones are reached. The second is the price action firstly pulling back into the support zones determined by EMA, the Bollinger Bands, the bullish accumulation channel, and the volume profile. Then it will also be important how the macroeconomic indications pointed out will behave. If the expected forecasts show up as mentioned, it will highly likely be a major boost for the bullish price action. In any case, it will be highly determining and interesting to see the S&P 500 index evolve.
With this being said, it is great to see an increased support.
We will watch out for the important market evolutions.
Thank you very much for watching!
AUDUSD — Long | Daily Break & Retest + Teacup Continuation**AUDUSD — Long | Daily Break & Retest + Teacup Continuation**
📅 **Timeframe:** Daily (Bias) / 1H–4H (Execution)
📊 **Bias:** Bullish
🔍 **Setup Explanation:**
AUDUSD has completed a **daily break and retest (violation)** and is holding above prior structure. Price has formed a **daily teacup base near 0.66242**, signaling continuation. On the lower timeframes (**1H–4H**), a potential **sell-to-buy move** may offer refined long entries into demand.
🎯 **Trade Levels:**
* **Buy Zone:** `0.66080 – 0.66250`
* **Stop Loss:** `0.65850`
* **Take Profit:** `0.67250`
📈 **Risk–Reward (R:R):**
* **Average Entry:** ~`0.66165`
* **Risk:** ~`31.5 pips` (0.66165 → 0.65850)
* **Reward:** ~`108.5 pips` (0.66165 → 0.67250)
* **R:R:** **≈ 1 : 3.4**
📈 **Target Logic:**
Take profit is set at the next **daily expansion / resistance zone**, aligning with bullish continuation structure.
⚠️ **Invalidation:**
A **daily close below 0.65850** invalidates this setup.
📌 **Execution Notes (1H–4H):**
Look for confirmation such as:
* Bullish engulfing candle
* Strong displacement from demand
* LTF break and retest before entry
ZENUSDT Forming Bullish MomentumZENUSDT is forming a clear bullish momentum pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal that often indicates an upcoming breakout. The price has been consolidating within a narrowing range, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening while buyers are beginning to regain control. With consistent volume confirming accumulation at lower levels, the setup hints at a potential bullish breakout soon. The projected move could lead to an impressive gain of around 90% to 100% once the price breaks above the wedge resistance.
This falling wedge pattern is typically seen at the end of downtrends or corrective phases, and it represents a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Traders closely watching ZENUSDT are noting the strengthening momentum as it nears a breakout zone. The good trading volume adds confidence to this pattern, showing that market participants are positioning early in anticipation of a reversal.
Investors’ growing interest in ZENUSDT reflects rising confidence in the project’s long-term fundamentals and current technical strength. If the breakout confirms with sustained volume, this could mark the start of a fresh bullish leg. Traders might find this a valuable setup for medium-term gains, especially as the wedge pattern completes and buying momentum accelerates.
✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and
✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is your opinion about this Coin?)
Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
IOSTUSDT Forming Falling WedgeIOSTUSDT is forming a clear falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal that often indicates an upcoming breakout. The price has been consolidating within a narrowing range, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening while buyers are beginning to regain control. With consistent volume confirming accumulation at lower levels, the setup hints at a potential bullish breakout soon. The projected move could lead to an impressive gain of around 90% to 100% once the price breaks above the wedge resistance.
This falling wedge pattern is typically seen at the end of downtrends or corrective phases, and it represents a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Traders closely watching IOSTUSDT are noting the strengthening momentum as it nears a breakout zone. The good trading volume adds confidence to this pattern, showing that market participants are positioning early in anticipation of a reversal.
Investors’ growing interest in IOSTUSDT reflects rising confidence in the project’s long-term fundamentals and current technical strength. If the breakout confirms with sustained volume, this could mark the start of a fresh bullish leg. Traders might find this a valuable setup for medium-term gains, especially as the wedge pattern completes and buying momentum accelerates.
✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and
✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is your opinion about this Coin?)
Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
FORTHUSDT UPDATE#FORTH
UPDATE
FORTH Technical Setup
Pattern: Falling Wedge Pattern
Current Price: 1.702$
Target Price: 1.268$
Target % Gain: 81.72%
Technical Analysis: FORTH is breaking out of a falling wedge pattern on the 1D chart, indicating bullish potential. The price has recently surged above the resistance trendline, supported by an increase in volume. The setup is validated as the price approaches the key resistance areas.
Time Frame: 1D
Risk Management Tip: Always use proper risk management.
ASTERUSDT UPDATE#ASTER
UPDATE
ASTER Technical Setup
Pattern: Falling Wedge Pattern
Current Price: 0.701$
Target Price: 0.717$
Target % Gain: 100.58%
Technical Analysis: ASTER is breaking out of a falling wedge pattern on the 1D chart, indicating bullish potential. The price has recently surged above the resistance trendline, supported by an increase in volume. The setup is validated as the price approaches the key resistance areas.
Time Frame: 1D
Risk Management Tip: Always use proper risk management.
NFPUSDT UPDATE#NFP
UPDATE
NFP Technical Setup
Pattern: Falling Wedge Pattern
Current Price: 0.0257$
Target Price: 0.0330$
Target % Gain: 146.48%
Technical Analysis: NFP is breaking out of a falling wedge pattern on the 1D chart, signaling a bullish reversal setup. Price has successfully pushed above the upper wedge resistance after a prolonged downtrend, indicating strengthening momentum. The measured move target aligns with the prior range high, suggesting strong upside potential if volume continues to support the breakout.
Time Frame: 1D
Risk Management Tip: Always use proper risk management.
BTC/USDT 2026 EXPECTATION Bitcoin is currently trading within a key macro range defined by the 2025 low and high. Price has reacted from a premium area and is expected to retrace into the HTF Fair Value Gap (FVG) and discount zone (20%–30%), aligning with previous liquidity and imbalance.
This pullback would represent a healthy correction within a broader bullish market structure. As long as price holds above the macro low, the bias remains bullish.
After mitigation of the FVG and accumulation in discount, Bitcoin is expected to resume its impulsive move to the upside, targeting new all-time highs above the 2025 high, with long-term expansion toward the 130k–140k area.
btcThe Trust's investment objective is to reflect the performance of the price of Bitcoin less the expenses of the Trust's operations. The Trust is a passive investment vehicle that does not seek to generate returns beyond tracking the price of bitcoin.
An investment in the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (“HODL,” or the “Trust”) is subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of Bitcoin is highly volatile, and you can lose your entire principal investment. HODL is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “1940 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same protections as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the 1940 Act.
BTC Update — 92K Zone as Bull Run Trigger (100K+ Scenario)Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision zone around 92K, which is acting as a major pivot for the next macro move. Price action shows consolidation and higher acceptance just below resistance, suggesting strength is building rather than distribution.
Why 92K Matters
📍 Key reclaim zone: 92K has historically acted as a strong resistance/support flip.
📈 Structure shift: Sustained trading above this level would confirm a higher high on the intraday structure.
🔊 Volume context: Current compression indicates that once volume expands, the move could be fast and directional.
Bullish Scenario
A confirmed breakout and hold above 92K can be the start of a broader bull phase.
From this zone, BTC has a high probability to accelerate toward 100K+, with momentum-driven extensions possible once psychological resistance is cleared.
Pullbacks above 92K would likely be seen as retests, not reversals.
Invalidation / Risk
Failure to hold 92K after a breakout would delay the move and keep BTC range-bound.
As long as price holds above the current base, downside risk remains controlled.
Summary
This 92K zone is the ignition level.
If BTC accepts above it with volume, the market structure opens the door for a strong bullish continuation toward 100K and beyond.
📌 Patience here is key — confirmation turns this zone into the launchpad.
BTR Update | 01 Jan 2026 |BSE LTD|🎯 Signal Status
Type: 🔻 Short (Sell)
Entry: 2618
Exit: 2628 (BTR Exit Signal Triggered)
Result: ❌ -8 Points (Loss)
🧠 Summary & Insights
Today BTR generated a short trade signal, but price failed to continue downward and exited early with a controlled -8 points loss.
This is a normal part of trading — losses are data, not defeat.
BTR exit logic protected capital before a bigger reversal.
📌 Trade Discipline
❌ No averaging
❌ No revenge trades
⛔ No holding against rules
✔ Stopped out — Trade closed
🔁 Wait for next confirmed BTR setup
🏆 Key Takeaway
One loss doesn’t change the strategy.
Breaking rules does.
This loss is acceptable —
because it follows the process, not emotion.
📍Moving Forward in 2026
Respect every exit signal
Track losses with the same honesty as wins
Consistency > Accuracy
🤝 Join The Journey
📌 Follow BTR Price Action for daily intraday reports
🖥️ Find BTR in my profile → Scripts Section
💬 DM for learning entries, exits & option trading with BTR
🎆 2026 begins with discipline, not fear
If we protect capital today,
we get to compound tomorrow. 💛
A quick look at Bitcoin. It loves the big dates. Happy New Year!To be totally honest I was watching the gold price in relation to a firm DXY during yesterdays session Wednesday which at 8am NY time became 2026 here in Australia.
Bitcoin on the RSi a couple of times dipped below the key 50 RSI level and snapped back.
BTCUSD was at a similar level 6 months into its breakout at President Trumps 2nd election victory. Watch for a jump from its 200ema if it should happen.
I'll share a secret, i've traded a few of these breakouts with Bitcoin up close on the second timeframes where it all begins and what i'd say is that price is always looking for for its next upwards move and Bitcoin is not overbought. The tight range is about to spring the 'golden child' to its next move, I'll keep that direction to myself as its not proper to state otherwise.
Enjoy the trading day. Happy 2026,
Chris
MusicalNightz
Happy New Year with BITCOIN making this for the first time!Happy New Year with our best wishes to you and your loved ones!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed the year with a feat that it has historically never done before. And that's closing a year in red (losses) within a Bull Cycle.
So far, the traditional technical pattern was that after a Bear Cycle, BTC posted at least 3 straight green years. The last, post-Halving year was always green (gains).
That held up until yesterday with a red yearly (12-month) candle after two bullish ones in 2023 and 2024. Could that be the end of the traditional 4-year Cycle Theory? Well we don't believe that quite yet. As long as the market makes a new All Time High (or at least Cycle High in the decades that will follow market maturity and mass adoption) on year 4, then the 4-year Cycle Theory should remain the dominant pattern.
Nevertheless, that was a historic first for Bitcoin and we couldn't be more excited on what the future holds! Happy New Year again everybody!
So does the fact that 2025 closed in losses worry you? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XAUUSD 1H**Hello, I hope the new year brings you success.
Gold price on the 1-hour timeframe is currently trading within a falling wedge, and price is expected to continue ranging within this structure.
At this stage, we have two main swing scenarios:
1-If price reacts bearishly from the upper boundary of the falling wedge, a decline toward the lower support area is likely.
2-If price reaches the upper boundary and breaks out with strong momentum, a move toward the higher resistance zone can be expected for swing positions. For shorter-term trades, opportunities may also appear near the higher highs.
For now, we need to observe how price behaves during the holiday period to better assess the next move in gold.
Wishing you a successful, profitable, and prosperous year ahead.**






















