=> Increased sector regulation via Cambridge Analytica etc is going to be bad news for TWTR and we believe the recent squeeze in shorts has run its course.
=> Despite front-end rates ticking to the upside this year, differentials will not be enough to protect global Equity pressure will encourage investors to sell, especially in the U.S.
=> A likely correction...
=> Expecting conflict in the middle east, especially the upcoming war in Iran to keep pushing the buy side BTC 5.27% .
=> Dirty money via Russian sanctions are also playing their part in the steady inflow.
=> Big banks and the usual suspects in bed with regulators will do a 180 and start applauding their 'favourite cryptos' later in the year.
We are eyeballing...
=> Here actively looking for positions in S&P around the 2730 handle. Expecting equities enjoying the recent short lived relief rally on Thursday's U.S CPI miss to finish after the NY opening range today.
=> A weekly close below 2730 will be needed for bears to retain the upper hand as this may see bearish sentiment resume early Monday.
=> Things are starting...
Here actively looking to build a full sized position in UK Equities on the sell side.
=> Hard Brexit now sitting in 'done deal' territory.
=> All UK sectors are starting to cough and beckoning for help.
=> Expecting the shock to be felt in both the Equities market as well as the Pound (see related ideas).
=> This will detonate soon and provide a category 5...
=> Inflation recently slowing across US, EZ, UK et al other major economies we have only one side of gold in play here... risk . Volatility is set to increase in May as tensions in the Middle East, namely Iran continue to escalate. We are setting the stage for war and commodities (namely oil and gold) are the beneficiaries of risk flows.
=> FED hikes in May...
This part of the Brexit leg is easier to track in Sterling, as FTSE continues enjoying the news of no hikes and more QE guaranteed till the Brexit finish line.
From a Political perspective:
=> The odds of T.May remaining as prime minister are diminishing by the minute. The latest immigration scandal has her fingerprints all over the trail, not sure she will...
Plenty of noise in the street today ... giving large hands another opportunity to shake out shorts and offering those sharp enough cheap entries ahead of Trump confirming the US to leave the Iran deal (just over an hour from now).
=> We have posted in detail about the flows into BTC and Gold with Iran (see attached) as risk enters into the picture one more time...
Here we are looking to trade the final wave of the flows with ECB ending their QE programme alongside a protectionist US fiscal policy.
From a fundamental perspective:
Softer numbers from EZ on both the inflation and consumer front have driven any odds of a hike in 2018 out of the question.
=> We have (and still are) trading the expectation leg of this move...
