Gold went one more leg down and killed premature wave i & ii. However it remained on the edge of higher degree count and strong resistance 1250 hold so far. Recovery from 1250 looks like five waves, so we need one more 5 waves move to around 1265 now
Even though pull back ratio is not perfect it looks wave iv is forming. Then we will probably complete wave v of wave (c) around 5958 or 6991. From this point we will go don to complete Wave (iv). Whenever Wave (v) of Wave of Wave completes, this market may enter a rather long bearish development
Waiting for a break to clear the outlook. Upcoming days are rather bearish on cycles. So, i am suspicious about bullish outlook however current recovery from 2.1484 has potential to base for a sharper rally.
Down breakout confirmed bearish scenario where we are looking for last leg which will form Wave (v). Two price levels are favors from fibo extensions;
1st: 88.41/43 -> 50% extension of Wave (iii) and 223.8% extension of Wave (a) of Wave (v)
2nd: 87.14/24 -> 58.6% ext of Wave (iii) and 261.8% ext of Wave (a) of Wave (v)
After I expect to go up
As price hold above 1.0810 and key reversal candles occurred we can say we saw the bottom of the correction period from 1.0996 top with 50% correction. We have already saw minor wave i and wave ii.. This rally can continue somewhere around 1.1047 Murrey Math level.
I shifted my outlook to Neutral because we are now in a very strong resistance area of Daily TF Murrey Math Resistance level where we several times failed to go above. I expect one more higher high to correct down for Wave iv of Wave (c).
Yesterday decline was rather hard and there is no divergence in 4H TF. So minor update on count. So still looking for Wave -iii- of Wave c down. As long as this movement stay above 1240 general outlook is very bullish.
Bullish count continues without problem. As expected Murrey Math level +1/8 put a barrier to yesterday rally and let the formation of Wave a of Wave iii. We cannot know how deep wave b will be but we should continue after some consolidation.