Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.
At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.
Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50
#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.
Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.
Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60
Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.
The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.
Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60 
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S&P Kissed 5000 levelUSD: S&P 500 at 5000
US asset markets are having a good few weeks. Equity benchmarks are pushing up to fresh highs
and last night's US 10-year Treasury auction saw decent demand. Leading the charge in US
equities has been the big tech stocks. Just looking across the consensus price targets of the
'magnificent seven', the targets remain anywhere from 6% (AAPL) to 20% (AMZN) above last
night's closing levels. The only one of the seven with a lower price target is Nvidia, where this
year's 50% rally has overshot a price target largely there since last summer. Whether the
psychological 5000 level in the S&P 500 now proves something of a hurdle remains to be seen. But from the equity analyst community anyway, the consensus is that there is more to come.
After the Fed/Powell pushed back hard on a rate cut in March, and, the payrolls data
reinforced the message, the market's attention is shifting to the May meeting
probabilities.
We believe the Fed’s hiking cycle is complete and that the Fed will remain on hold at the current Fed funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% until the first 25bp cut in May,
after which we expect 25bp cuts in June, July, and September followed by quarterly
cuts until the terminal rate range reaches 3.25-3.5% in September 2025, although
the risks are skewed toward a June start to rate cuts. On balance sheet policy, we
expect the Fed to announce that it will start tapering the pace of balance sheet
runoff in May and to end runoff in 1Q25. Short 
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ES1! Whoa, bro! The SP500 and E Mini are totally gearing up for a radical ride! 🏄♂️ They're cruising towards some major stops, and if they start showing some gnarly price weakness, there might be a chance for a sick reversal to fill that daily liquidity void. Dude, that's like the perfect setup for a killer retracement trade against the wave!
And check this out, man, there's a potential long trade possibility from the liq fill around the $4327 region on ES1! 🤙 That's like catching a big wave right before it breaks, setting you up for a tubular ride to the moon!
Keep your eyes peeled, bro, 'cause this market's gonna be a wild one! Watch for those juicy setups and get ready to drop in on those sweet trades! 🌊 Stay chill, trust your instincts, and ride those waves like a true surfer of the market!
So, dudes, let's shred it out there, take those opportunities, and ride the markets like we're born to do! Cowabunga, my trading bros! 🤘😎 Long 
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