Recent comments from Italy's DiMaio continue to worry markets that a future clash is possible which will put yet another dent in the EU's cohesion.
Pay attention to the short/long-dated German vs US yield spreads, the risk environment, and the Italian vs German premium as the key drivers to gauge the next capital flows. For now, risk and the narrowing of the 10y spread rules price action, but a source of concern is Italy and 2-yr yield spreads, exhibiting a major divergence with the direction of EUR/USD. The...
This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping). This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it...
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy. On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds. This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
hello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal...
Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget. Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains. Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
Long FTSEMIB @ 21,368; TP @ 21795, SL your choice
Market participants are watching this move in BTPs today, as Northern League leader Salvini is asking for the resignation of Italy's Finance Minister Tria.
WE are expectin some retracement near 61% area + structure, so short. euro is pushing down by italy crisis, so we have technical + fundamental analisys. the last target is a open gap signaled in chart, maybe it will be filled.
Italian politicians are attempting to calm the markets. Today this seems to be working, and driving risk-on. Eyes on the key levels.
Italy is pushing Euro down, today we can see euro oversold in Weekly chart, but it can be only a "breath" , if it goes up can make Head and shoulders pattern, its close of a trendline that came from monthly chart since 2008. We can see one gap open and it must be filled, i'm looking for short in EURUSD, but after one more up movement.
After another negative close, stops can be trailed to 93.00 looking for 90.00 as a first target. Keep an eye on the Italian political agenda and on risk aversion which seems to be creeping in.
Yesterday we expected the Italian 10yr to break back through recent supports, after Conte's initial proposals on immigration, taxes, welfare seem to imply a decisive clash with Brussels. These measures would be good for the population, but EU will not allow them. Further downside is expected and 90.00 is the first target.
The Italian Government has started it's fight against Brussels. BTPs are responding and we may see further downside today.
Conte's League/MS5 Government would win a vote of confidence today. A clash with Brussels is only a matter of time. Markets a little nervous. A breach of key supports would open up the downside again.
According to reports in Italian media, parties across the political spectrum are trying to reach a deal to avoid snap elections. This has calmed markets for the time being, but price action is telling us this is just temporary.
Big moves and volatility expansion in Italian BTPs on the recent political turmoil. Bias remains down in the short term AND in the longer term.