Please note, that this ia a yield chart, which means an upward move in yields is bearish in terms of BTP futures.
After reaching our initial bearish target, BTP yield retraced to daily Kijun Sen and is trading now at a very good risk/reward support zone, where we start to re-establish short bond positions to a 1,35-1,40 % target.
We will put on larger size in...
For the non FI experts: I put this post out as a SHORT Investment strategy, which means sell the 10y Italian bond (BTP) futures. Only in terms of yield charts it is a bullish picture as yields rise when bonds are sold.
Left panel: weekly chart of BTP/Bund (Italy 10y over German 10y bond) yield spread
Right panel: BTP Italy 10y yield
The yield already delivered...
I expect 10yr Italian Govt Bonds Yields to slowly drop toward area 1,05/1,13 thanks to the purchase program of ECB. They shall not skyrocket again until next government crisis, or Covid return, or major problems of the EU.
In the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro.
The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde.
As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too.
Look at RSI on...
The ECB cannot get a grip on it and the 10-year Italian government bond is quoted at 17.8% p.a. on 19 March 2019.
Not only is Italy bankrupt, but also the portfolios of the government bond holders are disappearing into thin air, above all the ECB and pension funds and insurance companies.
I SEE MANY PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT BAILOUTS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR!
HOW ABOUT THE REAL PROBLEM: BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS!
I WOULD BET MY LIFE SAVINGS THAT THE ECB WILL GUARANTEE THAT ITALIAN (AND EVERY OTHER EUROPEAN NATION'S) BOND YIELDS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY SACRIFICING THE VALUE OF THE SAVINGS OF EVERY PERSON IN EUROPE!
UNTIL GOVERNMENTS ARE ALLOWED TO...
"Italy must 'calm down' and stop questioning the euro: Draghi" ~ Reuters
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