Just remember that as retail investors we are just following the wake of the whales and swimming with the sharks. 3m resolution
Because it is sitting on top of the trading channel that it defined since the turn of the 20th century. The only time that the S&P broke above this channel was the dot com bubble. That is a pretty ominous sign if you ask me. The good news is that the S&P is still inside the blue channel that started in 2009. 1D 4h 2h
DISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. This is a shit-post. I write hypercritical microscopic analytical investigations into companies to determine if...
I see a possible large ABC correction made up of a 1) expanded flat and now 2) a zig zag. See notes on chart. If this is accurate, then we could still drop as low as 3850. There is a gap on April 5, 2021 that has yet to be filled. The correction I am estimating would make that happen. The other orange line shows where the S&P jumped above the trading channel...
I have a custom moving averages trend indicator that creates a metric based on the relationship between price, 20, 50, 100, and 200 day SMA. price > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 then metric = 1.0 price < 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 then metric = 0.0 otherwise, it will be somewhere in between based on their relative postion (above/below). I color it based on two thresholds...
I still think the Head & Shoulders pattern has not completed and the near term bottom is the $400 level ($390's). That would also complete a nice 0.382 fib retrace of this really long wave since the June 2020 pullback. It would also fill the gap from April 2021. Not to mention, the $400 level is a very strong psychological level, and I expect heavy buying if we...
Looking like a big decision point about to happen. Will the S&P confirm the H&S pattern and see a significant correction in the next week or so, or will it break out for a run at the ATH? sma for 20, 50, 100, 200
It would be hard to ignore this double top. However not a big one. Btw a lot of indicators (Squeeze momentum, MACD) are still bullish or neutrals. There is not (for me) enough strength in this sole pattern to short SPY and NDX, but you should think to close your long positions. It reminds me this double top: It could bounce on the support as it could break...
2 entries (one aggressive and/or one filtered), at the end of the two biggest previous crash... I bought NDX at the closing price (15018), with a stop-loss at -3%, and I advice to put only 20 to 33% of the money to have a risk below 1% (the past weeks were all doom and gloom and we do not know for sure what could happen next...) If you want to download an...
Wow, that is some serious price action. Bottomed out at -3.9% around 11:30 and then rallied +4.6% by the end of the day to close positive for the day.. On the chart you can see the 20, 50, 100, and 200 day SMA. I also added the key price levels to watch. You can see the bounce off the lower and the morning open to be at the middle one. Would not be surprised if...
S&P500 index. It's a long way down, as we face a future of rising interest rates.
Supports broken. Same thing on AMEX:SPY , including his EMA. Even the best indicators got difficult to be read. We clearly are going out of our 15 months channel. Things start to be hazy. I hope you made a lot of money on the past two years because it's becoming trickier. My take home message would be: " There is time to go long, time to go short...
Since february 2020 a green candle has been seen round 16 times on the top of the EMA50. For 13 times out of 16 SPY took +2.62% in the next 5 days. Sometimes much more on a longer period. In order to trade this pattern the best is to buy at the closing, and to put a close stop loss (something round 0.3%...). This kind of stop loss worked 12 times out of 13... The...
Update to previous post. The light volume over the holidays allowed the S&P to surge above the channel, but with trading back in full action yesterday's sell off brought the S&P back into the 2009 channel. Looking back at previous price action in 2010, 2011, and 2014-2015 this could continue on for the rest of 2022. I still think the S&P will make it to at least...
S&P to 5300 by end of 2022 Did my own version of wave analysis using fib levels on the S&P. Key levels I see are Wave 1 is around 0.618, Wave 3 is 1.0, and Wave 5 ends at 1.786. You can see how well it lines up on the chart. If the pattern holds, then it looks like this wave off the 2009 low should peak at 5300. I laid out a large scale fib starting wave 1 at...
Update on my previous post. The S&P is still fighting with the resistance setup from 2009. Big pump at the end of today still did not change that. My guess, the big boys trying to suck in as much money as possible to try and pump S&P above this resistance. A 2-3% pump in something like 30 minutes was not driven by retail investors. Question is will retail jump in...
S&P at the top of it trading channel bouncing off of the resistance line. This line so far has provided a clear limit for the S&P, and you can see where it has done this several times before. So far it has always ended in a sizeable correction. If you look at the 2014 range, you can see that it effectively hit this line 5 times before a major correction. That...
If we finish the week above the blue trend line, then it looks like SPX could be in a wave 5 head up to 5000 or as high as 5500. Here is the larger view that establishes the blue trend line. Close up 1D 4h