GBPJPY Strong support forming on the 1D MA100.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a 13-month Channel Up and for the past 2 weeks it has been consolidating on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That has technically been the pair's ultimate Support for the past year and hence the strongest buy level as shown by the green circles.
With the 1D RSI triple bottoming on its Support Zone, similar to what it did the last three times that it made contact with the 1D MA100, it appears that we are about to start another aggressive Bullish Leg.
The first Target of the previous one was the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is at 221.000.
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Japaneseyen
USD/JPY | USDJPY Filled The First FVG, Rejection Phase Starting?By analyzing the #USDJPY chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, price followed the expected bullish retracement scenario and successfully filled the first targeted FVG completely. USDJPY rallied back toward the 157.00 region and is currently trading around this level, where price is already showing signs of reaction and hesitation.
At this stage, the key question is whether sellers will fully reject price from the current 157.00 area or allow one final expansion toward the 158.00 region before the next bearish leg begins.
From a structural perspective, the nearest supply zones are now located around 157.0 โ 158.0, followed by the stronger resistance cluster between 159.5 โ 160.5. On the downside, the closest demand zones remain around 154.5 โ 155.0, with deeper structural support sitting between 152.7 โ 154.0.
In my view, the broader bearish scenario still remains valid as long as price stays below the higher supply zones. If sellers regain control from these levels, the next mid-term downside targets are 155.0, followed by 154.0, then 152.7, and potentially lower if bearish momentum accelerates again.
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USDJPY forming the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.A month ago (April 15, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on the USDJPY pair, targeting its 1D MA50 at 156.250:
The Target was easily hit and the price rebounded exactly at the bottom of its 1-year Channel Up. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, the price should complete the Higher Low formation and initiate the new Bullish Leg.
Even though it can technically go higher, our next Target is the July 03 2024 High at 162.000, which technically is the next major market Resistance.
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GBPJPY Strong buy at the bottom of 1 year Channel Up.GBPJPY is trading inside a Channel Up since April 9th 2025.
The price is building a base on the 1day MA100, which is where the last 5 bottoms were priced.
Target the Rising Resistance on a +2.90% rise at 216.500.
1day RSI also bouncing near its Support.
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JPY pairs flash larger wicks with intervention risk There is speculation that Tokyo intervened in the currency market on Wednesday. If true, this would be the second time in recent days.
Japan held $1.16 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of March. If each intervention were around the reported $34.5 billion, that would imply capacity for roughly 32 more interventions. Not that they would or can, but it is an interesting little fact.
For one, Japan may only have room for two more interventions before November if it wants to maintain its freely floating exchange rate status.
So far, the suspected interventions have supported the yen, but only briefly, while also injecting some hefty volatility.
Since Japanโs first intervention on March 30, there appears to be opportunity to trade within the wicks of USDJPY, but more so in GBPJPY and EURJPY. For traders, this may create more room to capture downside moves with tools like a trailing stop loss, or to look for better long entry levels.
EURJPY Clean uptrend targeting 203.000.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a 4-year Channel Up and currently is making a technical pull-back towards its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is technically the first level to buy during its Bullish Legs.
As long as the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) holds, expect this uptrend to continue, targeting at least 203.000, replicating the gains of the pattern's first Bullish Leg. The strongest buy opportunity would be on the 1W RSI's long-term Support Zone.
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USDJPY 30MIN CHART SHORTUSDJPY has been climbing back up since the rate check conducted by Japan, but it has now reached a critical point. In order to maintain a bearish price structure, the pair needs to start dropping from this zone, right near the strong moving average area. The stop-loss is set above the recent highs to avoid getting taken out unnecessarily by a minor move.
USDJPY: Massive buy opportunity on today's selloff.USDJPY is having a strong decline today and is approaching the 1day MA200.
It resembles the late January decline, which found support close to the 1day MA200.
The 1day RSI is approaching the value of the Jan 27th bottom.
Long term this is a great buy opportunity, to complete a +9.50% Bullish Leg.
Target 166.000.
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JPYUSD: Descending Trend and Bear-Flag Point to Bearish Target!Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about JPYUSD on the daily timeframe perspective. JPYUSD emerged with strong bearish pressure increasing bearish alignments and is forming one lower low after another. Right now, I have spotted a lot of signs that point towards the bearish direction's continuation.
When looking at my chart, we can watch there how JPYUSD pulled back from this crucial descending resistance line several times. This is a strong resistance, which will likely keep being a resistance within the next times. Also, JPYUSD has this upper resistance line as a major resistance.
The fact that JPYUSD now trades below the upper resistance line makes it a really bearish setup. Below this structure, JPYUSD is forming this determining bear flag formation. The formation is going to complete with a pullback from the massive resistance cluster as seen in my chart.
Once the pullback happens and JPYUSD continues to the downside, it is going to activate the bear flag target zone with a final breakdown below the bear flag lower boundary. Right now, there is not a high possibility of JPYUSD reversing to the bullish side because the resistances and bearish signs are just too strong.
Once the formation has been completed and the final targets reached, further assumptions need to be made. It will be important to determine if JPYUSD has the ability to reverse once the final targets have been reached.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
VP
$JPIRYY - Japan's CPI (March/2026)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 1.5%
March/2026 +0.2%
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japanโs annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from Februaryโs near four-year low of 1.3%, with transport costs posting the fastest increase in four months (2.1% vs 0.5% in February), amid the effects of the Middle East tensions.
Inflation also accelerated for household items (2.7% vs 1.2%), communications (7.0% vs 6.8%), recreation (2.3% vs 2.2%), and miscellaneous goods (0.7% vs 0.6%).
Price growth held steady for clothing (at 2.1%) and housing (at 1.0%), but eased for healthcare (0.2% vs 0.4%).
Food inflation slowed to a 17-month low (3.6% vs 4.0%), driven by the softest rise in rice prices in two years.
Meanwhile, electricity prices (-8.0% vs -8.0) and gas (-5.2% vs -5.1%) fell further, reflecting subsidy effects.
Core inflation accelerated to 1.8% from February's 1.6%, but remained below the central bankโs 2% target for the second month. Monthly, the CPI increased 0.4%, reversing a 0.2% decline in January and February and marking the highest reading since January 2025.
GBPJPY: Channel Up rejection eyes the 4H MA200.GBPJPY remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.922, MACD = 1.000, ADX = 49.750) but 1H and 4H have turned bearish as the price hit the top of the Channel Up and got rejected. Having closed under the 4H MA50, the pair is now targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the level that hit on every correction within this pattern. We aim for at least the 4H MA200 (TP = 213.550).
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USDJPY: Holding the 1D MA50, aiming higher.USDJPY just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.404, MACD = 0.360, ADX = 23.146) as it held its 1D MA50 last week and is staging a mini rally. As long as it holds, the 1 year Channel Up will be on its 3rd bullish wave, aiming for a +7.80% rise in total (TP = 163.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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CHFJPY Channel Up just starting its new Bullish Leg.The CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the February 28 2025 Low. 20 days ago it hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and rebounded, technically starting the new Bullish Leg.
So far the two the preceded it, had similar % rises (+12.47% and 12.24% respectively), so we expect another long-term one of similar strength. The immediate Targets are 207.000 and 210.000 (the next Fibonacci levels respectively).
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AUDJPY Last rally before the Cycle tops.The AUDJPY pair has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up that is technically the Bullish Leg of the 4-year Ascending Triangle. Supported by the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) for the past 10 months, this Leg eyes at least a +10.62% rise, targeting 120.000.
This would marginally be below the 4-year Higher Highs trend-line. When a Cycle Top is close, the 1W RSI posts a Bearish Divergence similar to the current one since February.
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EURJPY 4H Long Trade PlanWeekly
1- Weekly Bullish
2- Long term bullish since May, 2020 current leg.
3- No Sign of Exhaustion on Weekly Time frame
Daily
4- Bullish
5- No Divergence
6- Bearish Doji candle formed on 9th Feb'26 and a pull back occured
7- Previous High Broken on 13th Apr'26
4H Trade Plan
8- Bearish divergence spotted and pull back occured
9- Retracement from Fib 0.786 in progress
EP: Option-1 If HH breaks and 4 H candle closes above 188, SL below 187 with RR 1:2
Option-2: Retraces further to Fib 0.5 Zone 187.090 SL below 186.180 with RR 1:2
USDJPY Strong Bearish Divergence calls for correction.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up for exactly 1 year (since the April 21 2025 Low). For the first time though, the 1W RSI showed a clear Bearish Divergence as it's been under Lower Highs since December 15 2025 while the pair has been on Higher Highs.
As a result we expect a technical correction towards the 1D MA150 (red trend-line), which was the last level that provided Support on the previous February 09 Low. Since both previous Bearish Legs corrected exactly on their 0.5 Fibonacci retracements, our current Target is 156.250.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPJPY: Best technical buy entry.GBPJPY has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.666, MACD = -0.05, ADX = 26.970) and given it is inside a 12-month Channel Up, this is a technical buy signal. Having also touched its 1D MA100, makes this even stronger since it has been the long-term support. Fractal wise we are on a similar spot as October 2nd 2025. Expecting a +5.24% rise (TP = 218.000).
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GBPJPY Strong Buy Signal on the 1D MA100.Almost two months ago (February 11, see chart below), we gave a strong Buy Signal on the GBPJPY pair exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the long-term Support on the 11-month Channel Up:
The pair reacted favorably with an instant rebound, technically initiating the pattern's new Bullish Leg. Yesterday the price almost hit the 1D MA100 again while the 1D RSI almost reached its own 8-month Support Zone, similar to the October 02 2025 Low.
As a result, this is yet again a strong buy opportunity, with our 220.000 long-term Target just below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (like the October 08 2025 High), intact.
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USDJPY D1 Intervention Risk Setup and Bearish Reversal๐ Description
FX:USDJPY on the Daily timeframe has rallied strongly and recently approached the 160 psychological zone, where Japanese authorities historically show heightened sensitivity. Price is currently reacting near a higher timeframe BPR and daily supply area, suggesting a potential exhaustion phase after the extended bullish move.
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๐ Analysis (Scenario-Based)
Primary Bias: Bearish correction from premium zone
โข Price is trading inside a premium area near the 160 level, historically associated with intervention risk
โข The market is reacting around a daily BPR / supply zone
โข If the pair fails to reclaim the recent highs, a corrective move toward lower imbalance zones becomes likely
Downside Path:
โข First downside draw sits near the Daily FVG around 158.87
โข If bearish momentum expands, the next liquidity objective appears near 157.66.
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๐ฏ ICT & SMC Notes
โข Price trading inside premium HTF zone near 160
โข Reaction from Daily BPR / supply cluster
โข Lower Daily FVG acting as draw-on-price
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๐งฉ Summary
USDJPY appears vulnerable to a corrective pullback after reaching an overheated premium zone near 160. Failure to sustain bullish momentum at this level could trigger a move toward 158.87 and possibly 157.66, where the next liquidity pockets and imbalances sit.
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๐ Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Recent statements from Japanโs Ministry of Finance officials, including Atsushi Mimura, indicate that authorities are ready to intervene if speculative volatility continues in the FX market. This is the strongest signal since the July 2024 intervention when Japan bought yen.
For markets, the message is clear: intervention risk is rising and policymakersโ tolerance for yen weakness is decreasing. Even if intervention is not immediate, this shift in tone increases the probability of a downside correction in USDJPY as traders reduce long USD positions.
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โ ๏ธ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.






















