Janet Yellen is set to speak this week Friday, market will be anticipating a rate hike for September. Her words will play a big factor on the direction of gold. Support level (1334), (1330), (1322), (1311), (1300). But I expect a delay in rate hike in Yellen speech. Very bullish on GOLD, look to set new high this year.
Gold hit top trend line and fib extension and now has put in bearish RSI divergence and been posting low volume. Expect a correction to the noted fib levels.
Gold in bullish pennant. News of no rate hike will drive price. Yellen won't move due to brexit and global slowdown fears. SPY becoming over extended. Gains will come out of retail and flock back to safe haven assets as the recent rally corrects.
COT report still showing a large number of shorts that were only added to after Brexit. Hedges? Or smart orders looking for the bottom before overbought markets correct. There's a lot of market profits to be pulled and after US election conventions we could see a big change helping to fuel metal's new bull path.
My take on XAUUSD for the near future. Currently at the 50% fib, maybe reach the 61.8% mark or move close to the trend line around $1260. Then short from there down to new lows. hopefully DUST and JDST will sky rocket then when the miners drop. The dollar will need to move to new highs hopefully due to uncertainty about Brexit and the effect on the Euro and the...
Bullish case
• Recent Impulse move with EW rules still in tact
• Huge rally on Friday 3rd June, right at the 61.8%
• CoT recently favorable
Bearish case
• Still in Multi-year down trend
• Divergence w/ Failed breakout, now in favour of primary trend
• CoT currently favorable
Gold Miners (GDX) is at the very bottom of a major channel and could rise up before reversing the trend by completing a H&S pattern. If TP # 1 is passes, $25.50 would be TP# 2.
