Price action suggests a winter pop is on the horizon.
Target Profit: 8%
The time frame for this trade is about a month so I will be using the March contract ( NGH2021 )
Technicals
This week Natural Gas initially sold off but traders eventually bid prices back up to form a bullish hammer which now sits just above a previous support level. In addition, the...
As you can see lower highs and lower lows are being made and rsi is being reset every time when at or near oversold condition. I’m calling for continue low... it has a little bit more room to go up before dropping again. Furthermore I believe it’s confirmed with the weekly rsi with plenty of room left before going oversold. Natural gas tends to hit oversold on the...
Natural Gas prices rebounded after dropping earlier in the week from $2.5 to $2.25 on warm weather. Prices rebounded on tight balances, oversold technical conditions,
and roll into February 2021 contract. Support is expected to hold, as LNG flows are above 11 Bcf/d and balances are tight, with last draw at -152 Bcf.
Technical Analysis: 4 Hr chart shows oversold...
Alas! I am free to post what I want thanks to the help of everyone's contribution thumbs.
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The Natural Gas setup for 2021 is not only fundamentally bullish, it's a technical trader's gassy dream.
Welcome to the G a s i n o.
Macro View
From a macro view we can see that prices are now at the bottom of a historically...
$2.6 is the neckline, if it breaks look for the .618 Fib level at $2.34 . Warm weather in the major centers like NYC and LA , also La Nina weather system this winter. KOLD is the stock to short NG or buy UNG puts. I think UNG goes to $2, GL!
Fundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal...
Natural gas NG is getting ready to roll into higher priced December contract, Oct 25-29. The upside potential on a roll is $3.2 price level vs. current $2.8. However, weather forecast is bearish for the rest of the week and into early November. LNGs are higher at 8 bcf/d, but Cameron facility and Sabine pass are still blocked and expected to stay that way for the...
Natural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action.
Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside.
First.
The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means...
Natural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days...
Time to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps.
Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up.
A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory....
The big question is what is going on with Nat Gas this year???
The December(Z) contract is still coiling up in a wedge pattern and about to reveal the answer.
A closer look at the bullish scenario...
It's looking technically hopeful with the 200 Week EMA, $3.00 level, and the bottom of the wedge all lining up.
...
Today the November(X) contract for Natural Gas corrected down to the historically significant $2.50 level. Going back a couple years it is clear that prices tend to hangout above $2.75 so right now prices are undervalued.
Buying here.
+1 @ $2.53
Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September.
Bearish factors: Production is...
Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September.
Bearish factors: Production is...
If you trade Natty enough you know that pretty much anything is possible... but highly likely with high amounts in storage that we get a retest of 2.0 before moving any higher...
As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer.
Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is...
