HOW TO BE THE 1% 🤔💫🤩
Our culture is obsessed with the rich, famous, and successful people, yet what is left behind is both the hard work and sacrifices of those who «made it»
And millions of those who failed miserably en route to fame and became nothing.
There are multiple theories on and philosophical systems, that reflect on success, but ill bring out the key points:🔑
➡️ Genetics, upbringing, and connections determine 70% of the outcome.
Oh yes, as much as we don’t like to think about it, it is genetics that determines our capacity for sports, singing, our intelligence, speed of reaction, etc.
For example, musical talent is determined by the specific structures in the brain, and some people have those from birth, and some people do not.
These structures might differ by a factor of 10.000 from person to person, even though the brain size would be the same.
So you might spend 20 years in musical training and be good, but you will never be a Mozart without those structures in your brain.
Training and upbringing, In turn, affect whether you will be able to use these Brain structures, as well as the society in which you were born, determines if your talents will be useful or not.
One might be born a genius mathematician, but if he did not get good training, or if he was born in the dark ages, his talent would have been wasted.
One's family and social circle affect which connections will the person have in adult life , and it is for better or worse but cronyism and nepotism as still widespread, And the connected ones, even without being super bright, usually outdo those that aren’t.
➡️ Pareto 20/80 Rule, or risky business VS the safe one.
Almost everything in life follows the Pareto Rule, which says that 20% of your effort brings you 80% of the result.
There is another interpretation too: 20% of people will have 80% of all success in the given industry.
This rule applies best and in its extremes to the high-end risky businesses with ultra-high failure rates paired with the ultra-high payoff.
These industries are Acting, Music, Sports, and Trading!
As you can see, in acting, which is the extreme case, 1% of the actors make 80% of the Income generated by the industry. The same goes for music and sports where the select few make the big buck, and those that aspired but failed, barely make a living. Compare this to being an engineer or a doctor. The failure rate is much lower, which lowers the risk of entering the profession, but the highest potential income is lower too!
This applies to Trading too, as once you’ve learned how to be consistently profitable, the sky is the limit. There is no difference in the cost of labor or time spent on making a trade with the risk of 100$ and making a trade with the risk of 100.000$
Of course, at some point, your trades will get so big, that YOU will start moving the market trying to enter the trade, but that’s a story for another day.
➡️ Your power of will, determination, patience, and readiness for sacrifice.
Trading is a unique industry, where ANYONE can succeed , without needing a diploma, connections, or looks.
In essence, trading at its core is about pattern recognition . You discover a pattern, learn to find it on the chart, and then find a way to use this knowledge to extract monetary gains by playing this pattern with the probability being on your side. That's it. That easy.
Then why is it, that 99.9% of those who try trading, ultimately fail?
In my years of trading, I’ve noticed a pattern: 💡
A - GET RICH FAST attitude
B - Do not spend time educating themselves
C - Do not treat Trading like a business
D - Lack of Patience
E - Can not follow rules
⚠️ People think that forex is a Magic Money Tree, just stretch forth your hand, and you will drown in gold …
In reality, however, learning to trade will take YEARS , will cost you a fortune and no one will guarantee you success.
HERE IS MY ADVICE TO THE NEW TRADERS: 🤓
🎯 HAVE THE RIGHT MINDSET
1)Prepare for failure, disappointment, and tears
2)Realize that you will train for YEARS
3)Learn to fight and not to give up
🎯 GET GOOD HABITS:
1) We ARE our habits , so recognize what is good for you, and make it a habit
2)Staying in good health is underestimated, while in reality, your physical condition has a direct effect on your mind.
3) Work on your mistakes. You will never learn If you do not access your previous work critically.
4) Make a plan for a week , then break it into daily tasks. Do it for a month and that will become a habit.
🎯 MANAGE YOUR FINANCES WELL
1) Learning to trade is expensive and time-consuming, so make sure you have an income.
2) Learn basic financial literacy and spend less than you make. Easy right? But if you lose an account that cushion will help.
3) Do NOT quit your job the moment you became profitable. This sounds obvious, but the market will test you multiple times, and unless you’ve got enough savings to last for 1 YEAR without working, ditching a stable source of income will not only make you vulnerable but will also affect you mentally which will negatively affect your trading.
📈 FOLLOW these steps and you will increase your chances of success in trading by a factor of 10!
PLEASE LIKE AND COMMENT TO GIVE ME A BOOST!
Learning
The RSI explained ! how to identify buy and sell signals Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :) I have created this short video to explain what is the RSI and how to use it to identify buy and sell signals with this oscillator , everything you need to know about this indicator is right here.
Its been around since the late 70s so its probably one of the more established oscillators out there .
So lets check out the formula and how the RSI works :
RS=100 -100/1-RS
RS (relative strength) average X day up / average X day down
So simply lets say we are using a 10 days average so we check how many days the price closed up and we add them and we divide by 10 which would give us the average X days up.
And we do the same for the average X days down but we calculate how many days the price closed down and then we add them and divide by 10 ,And after all of that has been calculated we will always get a value between 0% and 100%
And that's why the RSI is considered a bounded oscillator it means that the value will always be between 0 % and 100%
The oscillator has 2 major zones which are the overbought and oversold zones. Anything above 70% is considered overbought and anything below 30% the market considered oversold .
So when the market reaches overbought zone it tells us that the market has gone up to far and its due a bounce back down , and the same when it reaches oversold zone it means that the market has gone to far down and its due a bounce back up.
So looking to buy or sell when the market reaches oversold and overbought is one strategy .
But because the market moves a lot and reaches these levels so much this way is not as reliable that much , the better way to use the RSI is to check if it has a divergence with the market price.
what is a divergence you may ask !!!
A Divergence is when the price of the market is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.
These signals of divergences doesn’t happen that often but they do give us a better way to use the RSI .
And there is it that’s everything you need to know about the RSI and how it works it’s a really simple oscillator and its one of the most popular oscillators used by technical analysts.
_____________________________________________Make sure to Follow, Like & comment for more content_____________________________________________
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading & watching .
LEARNING How to Identify Price Action with Basic Count X + Y = 0this learning with BTCUSD htf 1D
so, basically, this is the action of buyers and sellers
Formula : X + Y = 0 with HLC (high low close)
1D : close candle
X : (-) minus
Y : (+) plus
Body : candle mother
Wick : line high or low
Next support BTCUSD on 30500 if crash we see 29k 28k stop on 26700.
Everything about the Stochastic oscillator !!!!Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
A lot of people asked me about the Stochastic oscillator so i prepared this video for you guys explaining it please enjoy .
or if you prefer to reading :
First thing you need to know is that the stochastic oscillator is a momentum index just like the RSI it looks at the price momentum.
A DR.George Lane developed it in the 1950s.
So let us talk about the stochastic oscillator now
it has 2 lines %K (blue color) and %D (Red color)
this is how we use it :
1_ the Stochastic oscillator indicates overbought and oversold state of the market cuz the stochastic is a bounded indicator that means its bounded between 0 and 100 range ( above 80 overbought , bellow 20 oversold )
2_we use it to identify buy and sell signals using crossovers:
• If %K crosses below %D then it’s a sell signal
• If %k crosses above %D then it’s a buy signal
3_Divergance between the price and the Oscillator
We have 2 types of the Stochastic Oscillator:
Fast and slow
The difference between the Fast and Slow stochastic is:
1. The Fast stochastic is more sensitive than the Slow stochastic ( the most common problem for oscillators is the number of false signals that they give so the Slow stochastic tries to solve that problem )
2. Slow stochastic smooths out the %K line by averaging over (d) period
so let me make it simple the %K line in the Slow Stochastic is like the %D in the fast stochastic
Now let us talk about the Formula
%K=100. (C-Ln/Hn-Ln)
Where C is the current closing price
Ln is low in (n) period
Hn is high in (n) period
(n) Is the number of period and the default value for (n) is 15
Now the %D is calculated like this
%D=average %K/ (d) period
(d) Is the number for period and the default value for (d) is 3
Make sure to Follow and Like for more content
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading & watching .
KEY metrics PART 1: Does your strategy has Positive Expectancy?Does your strategy has Positive Expectancy?
The main idea of this post is to show that despite your trading style, the instruments you use to trade, the assets you think are better, your timeframe, etc... Profitability is about a positive result after adding all your losses and winning setups after a certain period of time. That is positive expectancy.
So, it's important to visualize this and ask yourself, Does my strategy has positive expectancy?
Let's take this example as a template, and then you can use it to evaluate your system.
If we have an initial Capital of 5000USD and we are risking 50 USD per trade (you risk 1% of your capital per trade), let see what happens after a year of executing this strategy that we will call "The Stock Strategy."
The most important metrics you want to take a look at in your strategy are:
-How much money I lose on average on the losing setups?
-How much money I win on average with my winning setups?
If you divide these two results: Average Win / Average loss, you will have your Average Risk Reward Ratio. This is VERY RELEVANT! This metric is telling you that, on average, you make 2 times what you risk when you are winning.
However, this metric by itself is useless; you need to ask how many times you are right after X amount of setups "in this case, we have 24 setups," and we can see that we are right 50% of the time.
Now we can check if your strategy has a positive expectancy: (Amount of Winning Trades * Average Risk Reward Ratio) - (Amount of losing trades * 1( that's 1% of your capital you are risking = FINAL RETURN.
In this case, we have a final return of 12% after a year on the Stock Strategy where we can conclude that we have a positive expectancy and its worth of trading. Once you have more experience and confidence with your strategy, you can optimize the average risk to 2%; for example, you will have a final return of 24% at the end of the year.
It's important to know that professional traders don't have one strategy; they have multiple strategies that tend to be independent, so, if you can develop 3 strategies, each of them with a positive expectancy (50% win rate, and average risk-reward ratio of 2) risking 1% of your capital per strategy, you can aim to a solid 36% per year.
Another key Metric to better understand your strategy is DrawDowns, but we will develop this in PART 2 of Key Metrics.
Thanks for reading! of course, there is much more to speak about this, but the idea was to make a simple introductory post on these two metrics that we consider extremely relevant.
Pitchfork and Its Modifications From ScratchHi, traders!
Trading View gives us great opportunities to gain as much profit from analysis as it’s possible. Many tools indicators, including custom indicators let traders to extract all insights from the price action plot. However, many of us don’t know about very useful tools that TW gives us “from the box”. Well, today we’ll speak about pitchfork and its modifications.
Pitchfork
The technical indicator known as Andrews Pitchfork is not that well known and is rarely used by novice traders. However, it is a quick and easy way for traders to identify possible levels of support and resistance for price. It is created by placing three points at the end of previous trends and then drawing a line from the first point that runs through the midpoint of the other two points. The reason this indicator is called a "pitchfork" becomes apparent from the shape that is created in the chart.
How to draw?
Put the first point to the start of a new trend, second point on the next higher high, and the third to the lower low.
Shiff Pitchfork
But it’s good when we have no corrections. Try to draw pitchfork after it and you’ll fail. Fortunately, this problem has been solved with Shiff Pitchfork.
It has the same properties like the Original one, but the “corrections bug” is fixed.
How to draw?
Put the first point to the start of correction (pump), second point on the next higher high/lower low, and the third to the lower low/higher high.
Well, frankly speaking, the Original Pitchfork works well only on trend markets. For the corrections Shiff Pitchfork was invented. But what should we do with other cases? choppy market< for instance? Don’t worry, everything has been already invented.
The Modified Shiff Pitchfork
The Modified Shiff Pitchfork is heuristic above the Shiff pitchfork that specializes on sideways market movements.
How to draw?
Put the first point to the start of sideways movement, second point on the next higher high/lower low, and the third to the lower low/higher high.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
[Trade Review]How I traded $CRM, $TLRY,$U, + psychology TALK In this video I will reviewing trades I took 6/16/2021 which were $CRM,$TLRY $SQ that were posted in a pervious video about the set up on my New Series *Set Ups For the Week Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emas, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always! In the second part of this video I rant about trading phycology and use yesterdays loss as an example I hope yall enjoy!
[Trade Review]How I traded $PLTR, + TALKS ON EUPHORIA/ LOSSES In this video I will reviewing trades I took on 6/15/2021 which were $PLTR taking a small loss practicing my risk management not a problem since im confident i will make it all back. Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emas, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always! Make sure to leave a comment for feedback about cutting back on the trading review videos let me know guys! Will be making videos on trading phycology due to the euphoria in the market so look out!
The Great men of the trading worldAs a trader of over 20 years, there has been a lot of trial and error. A lot of learning, it’s still continuing! I wanted to share some interesting pointers with the community;
People see charts really look deeper than that.
I regard a couple of men in trading terms as the “Greats” Would there be others you consider? Why?
Let’s start – the only order is the age (timestamp) rather than preference to their work.
Charles Henry Dow (November 6, 1851 – December 4, 1902) was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company. Little known fact, Dow also co-founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. This guy has his own chart.
He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis.
Dow theory explained
The Dow theory is based on the analysis of maximum and minimum market fluctuations to make accurate predictions on the direction of the market.
According to the Dow theory, the importance of these upward and downward movements is their position in relation to previous fluctuations. This method teaches investors to read a trading chart and to better understand what is happening with any asset at any given moment. With this simple analysis, even the most inexperienced can identify the context in which a financial instrument is evolving.
Furthermore, Charles Dow supported the common belief among all traders and technical analysts that an asset price and its resulting movements on a trading chart already have all necessary information already available and forecasted in order to make accurate predictions.
Based on his theory, he created the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now known as Transportation Index), which were originally developed for the Wall Street Journal. Charles Dow created these stock indices as he believed that they would provide an accurate reflection of the economic and financial conditions of companies in two major economic sectors: the industrial and the railway (transportation) sectors.
------------------------------------------------
This is another interesting topic in it’s own right, but not for this article.
“Pride of opinion has been responsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor.” Charles Dow.
------------------------------------------------
Many of our modern techniques fit into Dow theory in some way, shape or form and most people do not realise this.
=====================================================================================================================================
R.N Elliott – Elliott waves to most
Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948) was an American accountant and author, whose study of stock market data led him to develop the Wave Principle, a form of technical analysis that identifies trends in the financial markets. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves.
Elliott Said “The forces that cause market trends have their origin in nature and human behaviour” as well as “Forces travel in waves, as demonstrated by Galileo, newton and other scientists.”
--------------------------------------------
Wave Theory
In the early 1930s, Elliott began his systematic study of seventy-five years of stock market data, including index charts with increments ranging from yearly to half-hourly. In1938, he detailed the results of his studies by publishing his third book, The Wave Principle.
Elliott stated that, while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers. Soon after the publication of The Wave Principle, Financial World magazine commissioned Elliott to write twelve articles (under the same title as his book) describing his new method of market forecasting.
In the early 1940s, Elliott expanded his theory to apply to all collective human behaviors. His final major work was his most comprehensive: Nature's Law –The Secret of the Universe published in June, 1946, two years before he died.
In the years after Elliott's death, other practitioners (including Charles Collins, Hamilton Bolton, Richard Russell and A.J. Frost) continued to use the wave principle and provide forecasts to investors. Frost and Robert Prechter wrote Elliott Wave Principle, published in 1978 (Prechter had come across Elliott's works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch; his prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s helped bring Elliott's wave principle its greatest exposure up to that time).
I wrote a few months back an article on the application of Elliott (Click the image for the link.)
=============================================================================================================================
Richard Wyckoff
This method has had a lot of popularity recently on social media and in @TradingView
Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline.
From his position, Wyckoff observed numerous retail investors being repeatedly fleeced. Consequently, he dedicated himself to instructing the public about “the real rules of the game” as played by the large interests, or “smart money.” In the 1930s, he founded a school which would later become the Stock Market Institute. The school's central offering was a course that integrated the concepts that Wyckoff had learned about how to identify large operators' accumulation and distribution of stock with how to take positions in harmony with these big players. His time-tested insights are as valid today as they were when first articulated.
Although it seems complex – the logic still holds strong and has been seen even in recent Bitcoin moves. (click article – below) to see the types of Schematics.
---------------------------------------------
Wyckoff said “Successful tape reading is a study of Force; it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side.”
================================================================================================================
WD Gann
William Delbert Gann (June 6, 1878 – June 18, 1955) or WD Gann, was a finance trader who developed the technical analysis methods like the Gann angles and the Master Charts, where the latter is a collective name for his various tools like the Spiral Chart (also called the Square of Nine), the Hexagon Chart, and the Circle of 360 Gann market forecasting methods are purportedly based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics. Opinions are sharply divided on the value and relevance of his work. Gann authored a number of books and courses on shares and commodities trading.
There are several techniques using Gann methodology;
Here’s one on Gann Fans
Gann said “Time is more important than price. When time is up price will reverse.”
=====================================================================================================================
Another great man worth a mention, purely on these quotes 😉
If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
Benjamin Franklin
Wyckoff would call this composite man logic!
Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you.
Benjamin Franklin
And this is how I feel the crypto market is currently looking.
Any others you think should be on the list, mention in comments and why?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Fibonacci Extensions From ScratchHi traders!
Evidently, every trader understands the importance of defining the trend with its support and resistance levels. Unfortunately, sometimes it’s kinda difficult or even impossible to do with basic tools. Nevertheless, traders have fixed the problem and evented some indictors that are able to solve this problem. One of them is Fibonacci extensions .
Fibonacci extensions are a way to establish price targets or find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident.
As you can see, Fib Extensions is some kind of ratios.The ratios themselves are based on something called the Golden Ratio.
How to build Fib Extension?
During the up trend you should initialize the point of previous lower lower. Next point is the higher high and lower low again. The points should be consistent.
Ichimoku AdvancedHi, traders!
Today we are going to complement our Ichimoku article with some techniques that we use in our rading staff. We hope, you’ll master indicator and integrate it in your strategies. How we’ve already said, Ichimoku is extremely powerful indicator which is able to demonstrate some hidden information of market and even predict the future prices. Never the less, we’ll give the main application that we use in our daily trading stuff.
Parabolic SAR From ScratchHi, traders!
Today we’ll continue our series of educational articles. We hope you enjoyed the previous one and found it useful.
We have already told about the necessity of identifying a trend . Most of freshmen and even experienced traders find it really difficult. There is even more difficult problem, though. Finding the most profitable points of entrance and exit is very complicated task for anybody. However, technical analysis gives traders some tools and techniques that simplify this task greatly. Today we’ll talk about Parabolic SAR (PSAR) , one of the best indicators for identifying trend reverses.
Let’s have a look at it. PSAR is the line of dots which is plotted below or above the price candles. When the trend is bullish the dots are below the candles, when the trend is bearish they are above. PSAR calculation is rather difficult and we don’t want to bore you. One you should know is the main parameters – step and maximum step (default 0.02 and 0.2). When you increase this values, you increase the sensitivity of indicator, but at the same time sacrifice its precision, cause it starts catching lots of false signals. Whereas we decrease these values sensitivity becomes less, but signals are more accurate. Thus, it’s very important to find balance , in order to minimize lagging and get accurate signals.
MACD From ScratchHi, traders!
Today we gonna start the tutorial “Trading from scratch”. These short but very useful articles are intended for beginners who’s just started their way in trading. We hope you’ll enjoy.
Today’s article will give the full understanding of one the most popular, easy and very useful indicator - MAC. Moreover, we’ll show you how to apply it efficiently.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is a trend indicator that shows the trend and its momentum. It consists of two lines: MACD line and signal line. Both of them are EMA with different periods. We got MACD line subtracting from EMA with less period (fast) EMA with longer period (slow). The signal line is MACD line smoothed by the very short EMA.
How to trade with MACD?
Divergence
The first very powerful signal is divergence. Divergence means the difference between slope of the trend line on chart and indicator. To learn about it properly you can read our Divergences Cheat Sheet .
Catching divergences is a good signal to buy or sell. As you can see on the screen, the first time we got bearish regular divergence. Thus, we are going to short. Then we can see bullish hidden divergence and it’s a good chance to execute a long position.
NOTE
We can draw divergence lines both on MACD line and histogram.
Make sure to focus on improving in every aspectNote I am using GBPJPY, a favorite of high leverage day gamblers as it has the biggest range of the 30 leverage pairs.
I am not "spreading FUD", if day gamblers want to lose their money I do not care. Actually I like it.
Finding success is satisfying but additionally watching others fail has an added sweetness that is irresistible.
This is simply a reminder to be logical, and since we try to always better ourselves we have to make sure to better ourselves on all aspects.
It sounds simple like this but I assure you it is simple when you are told it, like hindsight.
People think they are supermen that think of everything, never miss anything, and are going to buy at bottoms and sell at tops.
Well to people that think that: good for you. I am no superman. And believe me I'm not being humble I hold myself to high standards and have a big pride.
Warren Buffett is no superman either. Neither is George Soros. Nor Jim Simons, he made real money decades after buying his first future contract and needed to hire someone to help him out with stocks which he did not know that well.
You may ask "But MrRenev how do I improve on myself and my trading? I do not even know where to start, I do not even know what to improve in".
Well you force yourself to have a rational organised mind, write it down; and you take your chart screen, sit in front of it, and stay there for the next 50 years.
==> Read, read, read. Watch videos, read articles like this one or (I'm not sure if I can mention potential competitors), go on forums, read books if you want.
I would call this part the "fun" part, or the leisure part. Watch videos you find interesting, even read memeposts on the internet, as long as you can tell what is bs what is not, even absolute trash will teach you how others think or will make you think or will show you others mistakes.
==> The second part, the laborious one (it's okay when you get into it you won't see the hours). You open excel, you open tradingview, you get a tool to save screenshots automatically, you open the calculator, you open a CME window, you open notepad/sublimetext. And you grind. You take in vast amounts of data, process it, look at the stats, and you learn. You ask questions such as "what are other participants doing? What are their holding periods" and so on.
So here is the secret holy grail:
R.D. Wyckoff started as a stock runner for a New York brokerage at 15 years old. He started speculating at least 10 years later, after having learned much from the charts and his clients mistakes.
W.D. Gann is the son of a cotton farmer and started hearing and learning about markets at a young age. He then went to a business school (useless) and worked for a broker, like Wyckoff he learned from his clients mistakes and then started proprietary trading.
George Soros started in 1954 as a clerk, then arbitrage trader, in 1959 he was an analyst for euro stocks, until 1963 when he became a VP.
He started a fund in 1966 with his employer money (correct me if I am wrong) to try out his trading strategies - developed during his 12 years in the business.
Don't just "try to make money", improve on everything and it will come with time. Remember, the most toxic tryhards are the best players in sports and video games. Same thing here.
If your goal is not to be "the best I can" and just "make money", McDonald's has job offers available, good luck as a burger flipper, and I'm not sure I'd want to eat those.
A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips
I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of.
Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices.
They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Moving averages are a totally customizable indicator, which means you can freely choose whatever time frame they want when calculating an average. The most common time periods used in moving averages are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The shorter the time span used to create the average, the more sensitive it will be to price changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive the average will be. @TradingView has many of these tools to use under the list of indicators.
A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale.
Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA.
Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period.
Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot.
Another simple strategy - Investopedia
This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps.
🍒Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart.
🍒Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA.
🍒For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA.
🍒Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price.
🍒An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable.
🍒Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short.
I hope this helps - Please feel free to add more info below. Any suggestions & comments to help new traders, always appreciated.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
📖 Trading Books 📖As a trading coach & mentor, I often get asked about where to go and find resources. Anything from books to specific strategies. So I thought it would be interesting to not only share with the community some books I have liked over the years. But to ask for your favorite books, any suggestions - any thoughts on the books listed?
Even if they're slightly outside of the conventional trading manual concepts - there are some great Wall Street stories, banking or business esq books.
Be great to get some conversations going!
Here's the second wave.
The next wave - moving away from trading manuals per se;
Another list;
And lastly some books worth mentioning but were just off the top 20 spot.
So what are your best books? why? what do you make of some of the books mentioned?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education - How does a bubble develop and what are the signs?Preface:
This learning content or information is merely my experience, or are those techniques that I use or find useful.
The beauty of technical analysis is that an analysis or forecast can be made using many different approaches.
These differ in effort, approach, tools and technical approaches.
However, I think one thing is important:
Keep the chart as simple as possible, try to see what is obvious and work with as few tools as possible but as many as necessary.
If you base your analysis on what seems obvious, it is likely that many other traders will also see it. This in turn would support a movement in the predicted direction.
= Self-fulfilling prophecy
-> Examples: Moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, Simple formations etc....
________________________________________________________________________________
Remark:
This is supposed to be a small help to identify signs of a bubble formation, I must absolutely note that a lot of experience and knowledge is necessary here, which I can not convey in a hurry, as this would definitely go beyond the scope.
Just try to analyze the BTC rise of 2017 with the help of these signs, or even the current rise.
What is a bubble ?
A bubble is usually easy to recognize in retrospect, a lot of green long candles, few red candles, until usually a high point. Then lots of big and long red candles and few green :)
But how do I recognize a bubble while it is forming?
Important:
Please read through the wave age tutorial I wrote beforehand, this understanding is needed to continue here.
If a trend does not consolidate sufficiently, but on the contrary shows shorter and shorter consolidations, rises faster and faster and ideally is still fueled by media interest, then these are the first signs of a bubble. (See bar in the chart)
Within a trend, the price must consolidate sufficiently after a rise (to go into this in more detail would go beyond the scope).
If now the trend in the period under review over the zenith, so after eg 6 waves, a new high and then further waves, with steeper and steeper price increases, so a bubble is to be assumed.
The price MUST consolidate sufficiently to be sustainable.
In the weekly, we can see that the price is moving further and further away from the standard SMAs (20,50,200) until it reaches an unnatural distance, which also indicates that the market may be in a bubble.
As soon as such signs appear, it is important to set very tight stops, as it can come to an abrupt end.
Summary:
-Ever steeper rises
-Ever shorter consolidations
-Distance to SMAs is becoming uncharacteristic of the market
Bonus: Media coverage of the asset
Annotation:
Since the weekly chart is shown here, it is not possible to see how the price reversal occurred. A SKS formed in the H4 , this was the beginning of the end of the steep rise.
Also today, we have the same signs as 2017, to note was the very strong and violent reaction , this does not mean that the course will now immediately sink it can go before still on 60.000 , 70.000 or even more high, from my point of view, the current consolidations were not sufficient, I have this in mind when placing a stop
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If I like this kind of tutorial, so leave me a like there and follow me. If there is enough interest I will post more tutorials like this in the future
Best regards and good luck
DCT Trading
Education - What are divergences and how do I use them?
What are divergences and how do I use them in trading?
A divergence usually shows the trader that the price is moving in the opposite direction to the indicator (or vice versa).
To find a possible divergence in the price you can use various indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Momentum, etc.)
I will limit myself to the Momentum indicator, because I use it myself in my trading.
What does a divergence say?
As already mentioned, the indicator shows me a contrary movement to the price, related to the momentum indicator this means for example:
The price rises and forms a new high, but the momentum indicator forms a lower high in the indicator itself compared to the previous PRICE HIGH
How do I use a divergence?
A divergence can be used in many ways if you know what to do with the information gained. In my opinion, this also depends on the chosen indicator, at least in terms of the information value I get from the divergence.
If one is able to identify a divergence correctly, one receives a kind of "warning", in my opinion a divergence by itself does not represent an action signal, but it warns me that in the case of the momentum indicator it comes to a trend slowdown although the price continues to rise.
What is to be paid attention to here?
-> As mentioned, a divergence by itself is in my opinion NOT a TREND SIGNAL, but a warning or information around which I can now supplement or adjust my trading.
-> Very important, there are two ways that one "bends" the divergence to right once the setting of the indicator is crucial, since each trader uses other settings, it is important not to change these in search of a divergence so that one is formed.
->Furthermore, it is important to consider the time unit under consideration, a divergence occurring in H1 is much less meaningful than one in D1.
Summary:
Divergences are a possibility to add important information to one's trading at an early stage in order to forecast possible price changes that have not yet occurred.
They do not represent action signals on their own.
Understanding how to trade Pennant patterns / Real exampleToday we will show you the theory behind Pennant patterns and apply them to a real example.
CONTINUATION PATTERNS: Ralph Nelson Elliott (who created the Elliott Wave Theory) discovered that there are 4 types of patterns that the resolution of them tend to be in the same direction of the previous impulse once the correction is finished and we have a breakout.
-TRIANGLES
-IRREGULARS
-ZIG-ZAGS
-FLATS
Today we will learn about pennant patterns, which are a type of triangle. Pennant Patterns are made by 5 waves (abcde); you can draw that using the tools you have on trading view on "Patterns."
In general terms, you will be able to draw two converging lines, and the price will start compressing there. It's important to know which is the previous impulse of the pattern to draw the Fibo Extension using that previous impulse. The Fibo Extension will allow you to define targets and are extremely useful when you are at ATH because you can't rely on previous technical movements to define supports or resistances.
HOW TO TRADE THEM?
Entry-level: Always above/below B depending on the direction you are trading. In this case with AMZN, our confirmation level is above B
Stop Level: Always above/below A depending on the direction, you are trading. The easiest way to define your stop level is by setting it above/below the whole structure.
Break-Even level: If the price starts going in the expected direction, you can move your stop loss to your entry-level, once the price reaches the First Fibo Extension
Target: Use the last Fibo extension level. Your minimum risk rewards ratio should always be 1.5, never less than that.
Thanks for reading!