Cocoa: Breakout walks into overbought territory. Does It Hold?Cocoa has now done something not seen in a while, namely broken nicely higher, gaining 2.51% for the day to close at 3,736, and reaching an intraday high of 4,625. This move is based upon an underlying recovery process that has been quietly gathering momentum since the lows, taking the market into a level where it deserves more of our attention.
In terms of the technical structure of this trend, what we are looking at is quite impressive indeed. From the lows in the area of 2,700-2,800 that occurred in the spring, cocoa has continued climbing higher in a stepwise fashion, with the EMA 9 and the EMA 20 providing the dynamic support through most of its advance. Each retracement phase ended with buying interest pushing prices back above these moving average lines instead of leaving them behind. This means that this is a true trend, not some kind of temporary one supported only by speculative money flows. At this point, the 200 EMA continues to be quite distant overhead, reflecting the memory of last year's collapse from well above 5,000.
And here we see the element of risk come into play. The RSI stands at 76, far enough past the overbought level, while the signal line lags behind at 57. It is a considerable difference, and when it comes to significant differences like these, it is a sign of either strong momentum that allows a prolonged period of staying overbought, or it means the market is about to reach its exhaustion point. But for now, the price does not show which one is happening. All we see is a flashing warning signal. As for the MACD, it still favors the bulls' side of the bargain. The MACD line is above the signal line and the histogram shows that the current move has more strength in it rather than losing steam, considering the recent breakout candle. However, it is important to note that the histogram is not in the area of extreme readings that was witnessed in late May during the most intense part of the rally.
The reason why this particular scenario is exciting, rather than just dangerous, is the environment it’s occurring in. It’s not an ongoing bull market in which quiet flows take things higher; it’s a market that has spent most of this year being very much out of favor, moving from above 5,000 to below 2,800 before turning around and rallying strongly enough to form a breakout candle that matters.
Trade Recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon : 3,650–3,750 on any pullback toward the breakout zone
Primary target : 4,200
Secondary target : 4,600
Stop loss : 3,400
Technical scenarios
Breakout continuation : Price holds above the recent breakout zone near 3,700 and the RSI stays elevated without rolling over. This would suggest the market has genuine momentum and is willing to stay overbought while squeezing remaining shorts. Target the 4,200–4,300 area, the next zone of meaningful supply on this chart.
Cooling-off consolidation : Price stalls just above the breakout level and digests the move sideways for several sessions while the RSI eases back from 76 toward the high 50s/60s without price actually breaking down. This would be the healthiest scenario for the trend — momentum resetting without the structure being damaged.
Overbought reversal : Price fails to hold the breakout and rolls back below the EMA 9/EMA 20 cluster. That would be the first real sign that the RSI's overbought reading was warning of genuine exhaustion rather than simply strength, opening the door to a retest of the 3,300–3,400 region.
Long
XAUUSD | Reclaim or BleedXAUUSD | Gold Followed the Kill Map — Now the Reclaim Failure Decides the Next Leg
Gold did not fall by accident.
Gold followed the map.
Yesterday’s structure was already there:
Reload zone above price.
Descending Fibonacci in control.
Repair levels defined.
Downside targets layered.
No emotional guessing needed.
Asia opened, and gold gave the answer.
It failed to reclaim.
It failed to repair.
It failed to hold above the recovery gates.
Then price started walking the Fibonacci ladder lower, one level at a time.
This was not a random sell-off.
This was an auction accepting lower value.
The candle came after the map.
The map came before the candle.
That is the difference.
⸻
The 4253 Reload Was the Trapdoor
The reload area around 4253 / 4258 was the decision zone.
If gold had reclaimed it and held, the bearish map would have needed adjustment.
It did not.
Price rejected the reload.
The repair failed.
Sellers kept control.
From there, the move was no longer about prediction.
It became execution and management.
If you were short from that reload zone, the market already paid.
Protect the result.
Do not let a clean winning trade turn into an argument with London liquidity.
If you missed the short, do not punish yourself by selling the bottom.
Wait for the next failed repair.
Late selling at the low is not discipline.
It is emotional revenge trading.
⸻
The Reclaim Failure Zone
The first battlefield now is:
4218 / 4213
That is the immediate reclaim zone.
Below it, the bearish pressure remains active.
If gold bounces into 4218 / 4213 and fails, that bounce is not strength.
It is a failed repair.
A failed repair after a clean downside leg often becomes the cleanest continuation trigger.
The next damage level is:
4201
If gold accepts below 4201, the market is no longer just correcting lower.
It starts expanding the downside auction.
That is where the continuation ladder becomes active.
⸻
Continuation Ladder If Gold Fails to Reclaim
If gold cannot reclaim 4218 / 4213, and especially if it accepts below 4201, I am watching the downside ladder like this:
4199 / 4194
First completion zone. If sellers are still strong, this is where partial profit protection becomes important.
4178 / 4174
Next pressure shelf. A clean break below 4194 opens this zone.
4150
Deeper reset level. If gold trades here without reclaiming, the market is confirming that the bounce failed completely.
4108
Heavy lower extension. This is no longer a small intraday move; this becomes deeper auction damage.
4023
Major lower shelf. Not a prediction. Not a target to chase blindly. A structural level that becomes relevant only if the market keeps accepting lower and fails every repair attempt above.
The rule is simple:
No reclaim above 4218 / 4213.
Acceptance below 4201.
Continuation ladder activates.
That is the map.
⸻
London’s Job Is to Expose the Weak Hands
London does not need to start a new trend.
London only needs to test the previous damage.
A fast green candle into London does not mean reversal.
A wick is not control.
A bounce is not value migration.
A rally into 4223 / 4229 / 4241 is only useful if it holds.
If it fails, it becomes seller territory again.
That is where late buyers get trapped.
That is where disciplined sellers wait.
The first bounce is not the opportunity.
The first bounce is the interrogation.
If gold cannot answer above the reclaim zone, the downside ladder stays alive.
⸻
Repair Ladder Above Price
If gold reacts higher, the upside repair ladder is:
4223
4229
4241
4253 / 4258
4223 is the first reaction test.
4229 is the stronger repair check.
4241 is the key recovery gate.
4253 / 4258 is the reload retest.
Below 4241, the bounce is still only corrective.
Above 4241, near-term bearish pressure starts to weaken.
Back into 4253 / 4258, the real test returns.
If gold reaches that zone and fails again, that would be a second reload failure.
That is not bullish.
That is a potential premium short location.
⸻
Trading Action
For traders already short from higher levels:
Do not get hypnotised by profit.
Secure part of the move.
Move from prediction mode to protection mode.
Let only the managed portion face London.
A winning trade should be defended before it has to be rescued.
For traders who missed the move:
Do not sell the low because the chart looks exciting.
Let the market bounce.
Let it test 4223 / 4229 / 4241.
If it fails there, you have structure.
If it accepts above, you have information.
Both are better than chasing.
For traders looking for a long:
Do not buy because price looks cheap.
Cheap under broken value can become cheaper.
A real long needs reclaim, hold, and retest.
Without that, it is only bottom-fishing inside a bearish auction.
⸻
My Live Map
Bear pressure remains active below:
4218 / 4213
Damage expands below:
4201
Continuation ladder:
4199 / 4194
4178 / 4174
4150
4108
4023
Reaction ladder above:
4223
4229
4241
4253 / 4258
Below 4218 / 4213, sellers still have control.
Below 4201, continuation risk increases.
Above 4229, gold starts to breathe.
Above 4241, the immediate bearish pressure begins to soften.
Back at 4253 / 4258, the reload retest decides whether the repair is real or just another trap.
⸻
Final Read
Gold respected the map.
The reload failed.
The Fibonacci ladder delivered.
The downside targets activated.
Now the next move depends on reclaim failure.
If gold fails below 4218 / 4213 and accepts under 4201, the continuation ladder opens:
4199 / 4194
4178 / 4174
4150
4108
4023
If gold reclaims 4223, then 4229, then 4241, the market starts repairing.
Until then, the bounce is guilty until proven innocent.
No chase.
No blind long.
No late short without failed repair.
Protect the profit.
Wait for acceptance.
Trade the map, not the adrenaline.
Educational only.
Not financial advice.
Not investment advice.
Not a buy or sell recommendation.
Execution, risk, and position sizing remain the responsibility of each trader.
#XAUUSD #Gold #XAUMO #YallaXAUMO #LondonSession #GoldTrading #VolumeProfile #MarketProfile #AuctionMarket #VSA #PriceAction #TradingView #RiskManagement XAUUSD | London Walks Into a Post-Fed Avalanche MapXAUUSD | London Walks Into a Post-Fed Avalanche Map
Gold did not just react to the Fed.
Gold lost a major value battle.
That is the difference.
A normal trader sees the drop and asks:
“Is gold oversold?”
A professional auction trader asks:
“Where did value fail, where did price accept lower, and where will the next repair attempt be sold?”
That is the entire map for XAUUSD after the Fed.
Gold is no longer trading as a clean lower-auction balance.
It has shifted into post-Fed bearish repricing under the lost 4,338.90 POC.
That 4,338.90 area was not random.
It was the value magnet.
It was the battlefield.
It was the level that had to be reclaimed to prove that the pre-Fed repair was real.
It failed.
And once that failed, the market stopped behaving like a healthy repair and started behaving like a repricing auction.
---
## Why London should care
London does not need a prediction here.
London needs a map.
Because after a Fed event, Asia can absorb the shock, London can test the structure, and New York can confirm or destroy the repair attempt.
That means the first London rally is not automatically bullish.
It may simply be the market walking back into a supply zone.
The question is not:
“Can gold bounce?”
Of course it can bounce.
The real question is:
“Can gold reclaim value after the bounce?”
That is where most traders get trapped.
They buy a green candle into lost value.
They sell a red candle into a lower shelf.
Then they wonder why both sides get punished.
This chart is not asking for emotion.
It is asking for acceptance.
---
## The key structure
The major lost value zone remains:
4,338.90
Below that level, gold is still trading under the lost POC.
That means rallies remain suspect until proven otherwise.
The first repair gate is much lower now:
4,265.41
If gold cannot reclaim and hold above 4,265.41, then even the smallest repair attempt remains weak.
The shallow repair zone is:
4,284.66
This is the first place where a bounce can start looking more structured.
But even that is not enough for a full bullish reversal.
A serious repair needs:
4,324.40
And only after that does the market start looking back toward the lost POC around:
4,338.90
So the long side is not dead.
But it is restricted.
It needs reclaim, retest, acceptance, and cross-asset confirmation.
No reclaim, no respect.
---
## The downside damage map
The control line is:
4,265.41 / 4,255.36
Below that, the market remains vulnerable.
The damage-confirmation level is:
4,226.41
If gold loses 4,255.36 and then accepts below 4,226.41, the market is no longer just pulling back.
It is extending the post-Fed repricing.
That opens the lower ladder:
4,218.78
4,213.88
4,202.23
4,174.17
4,150.64
Those are not emotional bearish targets.
They are structure shelves.
The job is not to guess whether all of them trade.
The job is to know what happens if price accepts below the damage line.
---
## The cross-asset message
Gold is not moving in isolation.
DXY is firm.
US02Y is elevated.
US10Y remains part of the real-yield drag.
VIX is up.
Equities are soft.
GC futures are not giving clean hidden relief.
That combination matters.
When the dollar and yields are pressuring gold after the Fed, a bounce in spot gold needs proof.
It needs more than a candle.
It needs DXY to soften.
It needs front-end yields to stop pushing against it.
It needs GC futures to confirm that spot is not simply squeezing late shorts.
Without that, a rally can be nothing more than a failed repair.
---
## The long setup
The clean long is not “buy because gold is down.”
The clean long requires a sequence:
Reclaim 4,265.41
Accept above 4,284.66
Retest and hold
Recover 4,324.40
Then challenge 4,338.90
That would show that buyers are no longer just defending a low.
They are starting to repair value.
Until that sequence appears, longs are tactical only.
No hero buying under lost value.
No bottom-calling because the move looks stretched.
No emotional long before the market proves acceptance.
---
## The short setup
The cleaner short is not panic-selling the low.
The cleaner short is failed repair.
That means:
Gold rallies into 4,265.41 / 4,284.66
Cannot accept above
DXY and yields remain firm
Price rejects
Then the market rotates back toward 4,255.36 and 4,226.41
That is the cleaner sell-side map.
If price then accepts below 4,226.41, the bear path expands.
This is why I do not want to sell blindly into the lower shelf.
I want the market to either reject repair or accept damage.
Those are very different trades.
---
## The Fed lesson
The first Fed move is emotion.
The second acceptance is truth.
That rule worked before the event.
It still works after the event.
Before the Fed, the key question was whether gold could hold and reclaim value.
After the Fed, the answer became clearer:
The market lost the 4,338.90 POC.
The failed repair pushed price toward 4,284 / 4,255.
Now the next question is whether London and New York can repair that damage, or whether they confirm it.
That is the auction.
---
## My execution map
Bullish repair route:
4,265.41 reclaim
4,284.66 acceptance
4,324.40 recovery
4,338.90 value test
Bearish continuation route:
Fail 4,265.41 / 4,284.66
Lose 4,255.36
Accept below 4,226.41
Open the lower ladder
No-trade zone:
Chasing inside the middle without acceptance.
That is where most traders become liquidity.
---
## Final view
Gold is trading in a post-Fed avalanche map.
Not because it fell.
But because value failed first.
Below 4,338.90, rallies are still repair attempts.
Above 4,284.66, repair becomes cleaner.
Above 4,324.40, buyers earn more respect.
Below 4,255.36, damage returns.
Below 4,226.41, the bear path is confirmed.
This is not a prediction.
This is an auction map.
No chase.
No first-candle worship.
No blind bottom-fishing.
No selling into the hole without acceptance.
Wait for the market to declare value.
Then trade the structure.
Educational only.
Not financial advice.
Not investment advice.
Not a buy or sell recommendation.
Execution, position sizing, and risk management remain the responsibility of each trader.
#XAUUSD #Gold #XAUMO #YallaXAUMO #FederalReserve #FOMC #LondonSession #AsiaSession #VolumeProfile #MarketProfile #AuctionMarket #VSA #PriceAction #TradingView #RiskManagement
FTSE 100 Daily: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Looming at Key LonThe UK 100 (FTSE 100 Index) is presenting a highly textbook technical structure on the Daily Chart, consolidating within a large Symmetrical Triangle pattern.
As a core benchmark for European markets, tracking these macro compressions provides excellent high-probability setups for position and swing traders.
### Key Technical Insights:
* **The Symmetrical Triangle Compression:** Following a powerful long-term bull run, the index has entered a healthy consolidation phase. The price has captured liquidity at the lower ascending trendline and is now actively testing the upper descending resistance line.
* **Key Overhead Resistance Levels:** A successful breakout faces immediate horizontal resistance at the **10,635 level** (previous structure high). Beyond that, the ultimate macro target sits at the major historical peak of **10,910**.
* **The EMA 200 Baseline:** The long-term trend remains firmly bullish, beautifully supported by the rising 200-Period Exponential Moving Average (purple line currently climbing near 9,936), keeping the structural buyer bias intact.
### Strategic Scenario (The Breakout Sequence):
The green arrows on the chart illustrate the expected technical behavior as liquidity dries up near the apex:
1. **Short-Term Rejection/Retest (First Arrow):** A minor, healthy intraday pullback from the upper trendline to retest internal local support within the triangle structure.
2. **The Bullish Expansion (Second Arrow):** A decisive daily close above the descending trendline, triggering momentum to attack the 10,635 resistance barrier and opening the doors for a macro continuation rally toward 10,910.
### Execution Takeaway:
Watch the daily close carefully. A confirmed breakout from this compression pattern will offer a highly favorable risk-to-reward ratio for long positions, using the triangle's lower support line for risk definition.
---
📊 **ProData Chart** | By Rogerio Zaglia
*12+ years of daily global market technical analysis.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Cocoa Target Smashed! Trading the $3,600 MoveGood news! We have blown away our primary objective of $3,250 as Cocoa moves even further to $3,296. This significant increase proves that macro-level supply constraints are just too much for normal technical barriers. In today’s video, I will explain why the Hormuz scenario is driving the prices sky high and show you how we are wisely handling our profits in our remaining runner positions.
In this video, we will talk about:
Target Reached : A summary of how we made the trade, starting from the initial breakout of $3,074.
RSI Indicator : Why we are holding off, despite the overbought conditions indicated by an RSI reading of 78.62. (Guess what? We’re not selling yet!)
Managing Profits : We are adjusting our protective barrier to $3,075. This means more profit!
Next Significant Price Level : Plotting the way to $3,600 and highlighting another significant price level for Cocoa.
Long
#AN028: London Challenges European Union, Halts Defense Funds
The news that the United Kingdom has decided not to pay the €6.75 billion earmarked for the new European Defense Fund sends a clear political and economic signal to Brussels. Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, an independent Forex trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time.
Behind this decision is not just a question of money, but a precise strategy of industrial and military independence aimed at reaffirming British sovereignty post-Brexit.
💼 Economic and geopolitical implications
The European fund was designed to finance joint defense and technological projects, reducing dependence on the United States and strengthening the EU's autonomous military capacity.
By refusing to participate, London is sending a two-pronged message:
Economic: Priority is given to its own budgets and its national defense industry, which has seen a strong revival in the last two years with orders from Ukraine, the Middle East, and NATO countries.
Strategic: The United Kingdom does not intend to bind itself to European defense plans that could compete with NATO, of which it remains a key member.
📉 Market Impact
In currency markets, the news tends to temporarily strengthen the pound sterling (GBP), as it is perceived as a gesture of autonomy and fiscal stability—less public spending in a context of tensions over EU budgets.
However, the effect could be short-lived: the decision deepens the rift with Brussels, fueling political risks and potential trade frictions, especially if the EU reacts with restrictive measures on joint military contracts or exports.
On the equity front, British defense stocks (BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce Defence) could benefit from "patriotic" sentiment and increased domestic orders.
On the bond market, however, the effect is neutral: the move does not change the sovereign rating but reinforces the idea of the pound as a regional safe haven currency in a Europe torn between austerity and defense spending.
🌍 Risks for the EU
For Brussels, London's lack of input complicates the construction of a common defense policy:
less funding for shared industrial programs,
greater dependence on Germany and France,
and a perception of European institutional instability, a factor that tends to weaken the euro (EUR). 
Short
FTSE Challenges Key Resistance - Breakout or False Dawn?UK100 Technical Analysis: 🇬🇧 FTSE Challenges Key Resistance - Breakout or False Dawn? 🌅
Asset: UK100 (FTSE 100 Index CFD)
Analysis Date: September 5, 2025
Current Closing Price: 9,222.0 (as of 11:54 PM UTC+4)
Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W
Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐
The UK100 is testing a critical technical and psychological resistance zone between 9,200 and 9,250. 🚧 This level has acted as a significant barrier in the past. The index is in a near-term uptrend but remains in a broader multi-month consolidation phase. A decisive breakout above 9,250 could signal the start of a new bullish leg, while a rejection here would reinforce the range-bound narrative and trigger a pullback. This analysis provides a clear roadmap for intraday 🎯 and swing traders 📈 navigating this pivotal level.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍
1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart):
Primary Trend: 🟡 Range-Bound (Neutral). Price is trapped within a larger consolidation rectangle between ~8,800 and 9,250.
Short-Term Trend: 🟢 Bullish. The recent rally from the 9,000 support has been strong, bringing price to the upper boundary of the range.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories:
Range-Bound Consolidation 📊: The dominant pattern is a large rectangle. The current test of the range high (~9,250) is a make-or-break moment. A breakout would be significant, while a rejection is a classic range-trading signal.
Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The move off the recent low looks corrective (3 waves), suggesting it may be a B-wave or part of a larger consolidation pattern within the range. This reinforces the importance of the 9,250 resistance.
Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading just above the Cloud on the daily chart, indicating a tentative bullish bias. However, the Cloud is relatively flat, reflecting the lack of a strong trend. A clear break above 9,250 would see price move decisively above the Cloud.
Wyckoff Method: The price action could be interpreted as part of a potential re-accumulation phase near the top of the range. A breakout on increasing volume would confirm this.
3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance (R1): 9,220 - 9,250 (Key Range High & Technical Ceiling) 🚨
Resistance (R2): 9,400 (Projected Target if breakout occurs)
Current Closing Price : ~9,222
Support (S1): 9,100 - 9,150 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅
Support (S2): 9,000 - 9,050 (Major Range Support - Must Hold) 🛡️
Support (S3): 8,800 (Ultimate Range Low & 200-day EMA)
4. Indicator Consensus:
RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is near 62, in bullish territory but not yet overbought. This suggests there is room for further upside if buyers can maintain control. A bearish divergence here would be a strong sell signal.
Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is pressing against the upper band, a sign of strong short-term momentum. A rejection here could see price move back towards the middle band.
Moving Averages: The 50 and 200-day EMAs are flat, confirming the range-bound nature. The 21-period EMA on the 4H chart is key short-term dynamic support.
Volume & VWAP: A breakout above 9,250 needs to be confirmed with a significant increase in volume to be trusted. Low-volume breakouts are often false.
Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯
A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts):
Bearish Scenario (Range Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is a classic range trade. Fade the resistance with a short position.
Entry: On clear rejection signals at 9,240-9,250 (e.g., bearish pin bar, engulfing pattern).
Stop Loss: Tight, above 9,270.
Target: 9,150 (TP1), 9,100 (TP2).
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If price breaks out with conviction, wait for a pullback for a better entry.
Entry: On a pullback to re-test 9,220-9,230 as new support.
Stop Loss: Below 9,200.
Target: 9,350 (TP1), 9,400 (TP2).
B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts):
Strategy: RANGE TRADING OR BREAKOUT WAIT. The most logical play is to trade the range until it breaks.
Ideal Long Zone: Near the 9,000 - 9,050 support area. ✅
Ideal Short Zone: Near the 9,220 - 9,250 resistance area. ✅
Breakout Strategy: A daily close above 9,270 would be a strong buy signal targeting 9,400+. A daily close below 8,950 would be a strong sell signal.
Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️
Key Risk Events: UK economic data (GDP, CPI, BoE decisions) and GBP volatility are key drivers. 🔥 As a heavily international index, the FTSE is also highly sensitive to global risk sentiment and commodity prices (particularly oil and mining stocks).
Position Sizing: Trading within a range requires tight stop losses. Ensure your position size allows for a stop placed just outside the range boundaries without incurring excessive risk.
Conclusion: The UK100 is at a critical juncture. ⚖️ The battle between the bulls and the bears is concentrated at the 9,220-9,250 resistance wall. Until a decisive break occurs, the range-bound strategy is favored. Swing traders should be patient for entries near support or a confirmed breakout. Intraday traders can fade the range extremes. The next major move will be dictated by the resolution of this level. 📊
Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 9,270 | 🔴 Bearish below 8,950 | 🟡 Neutral/Range-Bound between 9,000-9,250
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Long
UK HOUSE PRICES: RELENTLESS UPTRENDIn January 2025, the latest figures reveal that UK house prices have risen by 0.7%, pushing the average price to a staggering £299,238, a new all-time high. For the mainstream media, the narrative of an impending house price crash has been a constant refrain over the past two years, fueled by the belief that prolonged high interest rates would spell disaster for the housing market.
Indeed, these elevated interest rates have significantly hindered the natural upward trajectory of house prices, which typically rise in response to inflation, a growing population, and a persistent shortage of new housing construction.
The current stagnation in UK house prices resembles a pressure cooker, building up energy that is bound to release in a dramatic surge. The government’s ongoing strategy of printing money to appease voters will inevitably flow into asset prices, leading to inflation in these markets, much like the consumer price inflation we’ve already witnessed.
The government finds itself in a bind, compelled to continue this money printing to meet the electorate's demands for free money and to manage an ever-growing debt burden. As the debt increases, so does the need for borrowing to service it. This cycle makes it increasingly challenging for the UK to lower long-term borrowing rates, especially compared to the US, which still holds sway over the global financial landscape.
UK house prices are gradually regaining momentum following the fallout from the Liz Truss debacle, a situation she seems to remain blissfully unaware of, despite the havoc her brief six-week tenure as Prime Minister wreaked on the British economy.
The financial landscape was nearly sent tumbling into chaos, prompting the Bank of England to step in with an unprecedented commitment to purchase UK Government Bonds. The economy is so fragile that the UK is now compelled to invest in US government bonds to shore up its financial system against the spectre of another crisis reminiscent of the Truss era under Labour. We were perilously close to a financial meltdown!
Currently, UK house prices are inching towards a potential increase of around 10% per year, indicating a modest upward trend rather than a frenzied housing boom, while also avoiding the catastrophic price drop that the media seems to obsess over.
Ultimately, average house prices in the UK are set to rise, irrespective of government actions or economic conditions. Therefore, those considering the purchase of a standalone house should act without hesitation, as flats and new builds present more complicated challenges—flats can become a logistical nightmare, and new developments might be situated in flood-prone areas, among other concerns. 
Long
Long
Long
Short
