Here is my step by step analysis for the EURUSD short I am calling. I have published my short reasoning on another chart which I have linked below.
I predict a daily chart EURUSD retrace
Here is the EXACT snipe entry to enter possible shorts. We shall see how this bold prediction plays out.
short limit order 1206.5
2618 trade setup - short (double top, .618 retracement to enter short trade)
US Dollar index (DXY) could possibly find support around 99 to 100.5 for another bullish wave
Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that ...
The FOMC rate statement was largely in line with expectations and to the hawkish side - with a september hike hinted at. Much of which followed the rhetoric of FOMC members in the past few weeks (see previous posts) and data (disregarding the poor -4% durable goods mom print). Perhaps the most hawkish/ promising statement made for a Sept rate hike was the fact Fed ...
AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision
1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow ...
At market price:
1. At 104 $yen offers an attractive buy and sell side - from the position of not knowing what the BOJ will do..
- I dont think that this pull-back to 104 is a material shift in risk-sentiment, rather i think this is a technical sell-off where the 107 pivot was hit (as highlighted) at which point BOJ/ UJ bulls lost confidence on their long ...
Goldman Sachs on July FOMC Decision :
- The run of positive economic news in recent weeks has coincided with generally dovish comments from Fed offcials. Policymakers have indicated that they are not âbehind the curveâ, and have expressed increased uncertainty about the neutral level of interest rates. We would treat recent comments with caution, however, as ...
NZD$ Technical analysis - Remain bearish below 0.70 - 0.69tp1 0.68tp2 on a rate cut (Aug 10th):
Key level close:
1. On the daily and weekly we closed at the strongest pivot point of recent times at 0.70 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit).
1. We trade below the 4wk and 3m MA - this is a bearish ...
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released.
Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g. ...
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR.
In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In ...