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Loonie

USD/CAD | Further drop? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Daily chart of USDCAD we can see that after reaching the high of 1.3967, which is the Consequent Encroachment of the Daily IFVG! And then plummeted in price and is currently being traded at 1.3760, dropping over 200 pips! Now, the first support level for USDCAD is at 1.3753, if it is lost, next targets for it will be 1.3725, 1.3715 and 1.3678. Considering there are several NWOGs below the current price, price could be drawn to them.
Short
by AmirAliTrading
8
USD/CAD nears ceiling as CAD fails to rally | Sell the rally?There is an anomaly playing out in the currency markets right now. With Brent oil pushing past $100 a barrel amid the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the oil-correlated Canadian dollar should be surging, but instead, USD/CAD is trading higher, bouncing from recent lows and approaching the 1.4000 handle. Why is the Loonie failing to catch a bid? It comes down to interest rate differentials and safe-haven flows into the US dollar. We break down the macro divergence driving this pair and the critical technical levels capping the current rally. Key topics covered - Oil correlation breakdown: The Canadian dollar is failing to benefit from the massive spike in oil prices as the safe-haven dominance of the US dollar is overriding Canada's traditional tailwinds. - Interest rate premium: This is the core driver behind the USD/CAD rally. With the Fed sitting at 3.75% and the BOC holding at 2.25%, the premium makes the US dollar more attractive to carry traders. Furthermore, Canada's soft 1.8% inflation print lowers the odds of a BOC rate hike. - Elliott Wave structure : Following the flag breakout, the pair completed a 5-wave impulsive leg down to the 1.3485 low. We discuss whether the current bounce is just a short-term correction or the start of a broader macro reversal. - Overbought RSI resistance : The daily RSI is near the 70 overbought level, a territory it rarely holds without a fundamental disturbance. We identify the key resistance clusters where this rally is likely to exhaust. USD/CAD scenarios & trade plan: - Bearish (Sell the rally) : Because momentum is stretched, the current bounce offers a prime short-term selling opportunity. The immediate resistance cluster sits at 1.3886 (the October swing low), with the line in the sand at the 1.3930 double top. A rejection here opens a downside target of 1.3750, offering a favourable risk-to-reward ratio for shorts with tight stops above the highs. If Middle East tensions de-escalate, a deeper flush could retest the 1.3485 lows. - Bullish (Macro breakout) : For the trend to officially reverse to the upside, buyers must secure a few daily closes above the 1.3930 resistance. Breaking this level invalidates the bearish structure and opens the door for a macro run toward the 50% Fibonacci level near 1.4150. Are you selling the USD/CAD rally or focusing on a breakout above 1.3930? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
USD/CAD Forecast: Why the Loonie is Under PressureThe USD/CAD currency pair is currently a focal point for global investors. In March 2026, the US Dollar reached a two-month high against the Canadian Dollar. Traders often call the Canadian Dollar the "Loonie." Currently, the exchange rate fluctuates near the 1.3760 level. This article breaks down the complex forces moving this pair into simple, professional terms. Macroeconomics and Interest Rates Central bank policies drive the primary movement of USD/CAD. The US Federal Reserve maintains a strict stance on inflation. Higher interest rates in the US attract global capital. This demand strengthens the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada faces different economic pressures. If Canada keeps rates lower than the US, the CAD usually weakens. Traders must monitor these interest rate "differentials" closely. Geopolitics and Energy Trends Canada is a top global exporter of oil. Therefore, the CAD often moves with energy prices. Geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions can cause sudden price spikes. In 2026, geostrategy focuses on energy security and supply chain stability. When oil prices rise, the Canadian Dollar usually gets stronger. Conversely, falling energy demand hurts the CAD. High-Tech Innovation and Patents Innovation directly impacts a nation’s currency value over time. Canada is currently a leader in green energy technology. Patent analysis shows a surge in Canadian carbon-capture innovations. These scientific advancements attract long-term foreign investment. A strong high-tech sector builds a more resilient economy. Traders should watch for major tech breakthroughs in Toronto and Vancouver. Industry 4.0 and Business Models Modern manufacturing relies on automation and AI. Canadian firms are adopting new business models to increase efficiency. Strong corporate leadership and innovative cultures improve productivity. When Canadian companies succeed globally, they boost the national economy. This success creates a "bullish" (positive) sentiment for the CAD. Digital transformation remains a key driver of industrial growth today. Cybersecurity and Financial Science In 2026, cybersecurity is a vital part of financial stability. Cyber attacks on banking infrastructure can cause temporary currency volatility. Both the US and Canada invest heavily in defensive technologies. Robust security systems build trust in the financial markets. Investors prefer currencies from countries with high-tech protection. Science and technology now provide the backbone for secure global trading. Summary for the Professional Trader The USD/CAD pair is currently testing a "resistance" level of 1.3730. If the price stays above this, the US Dollar may climb higher. However, watch for "overbought" signals on your charts. These signals suggest the price might drop soon. Focus on oil prices, interest rates, and tech growth. This balanced approach will help you navigate the 2026 markets successfully.
Long
by the5erstrading
USD/CAD | Bullish run continues or drop? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the 4H chart of USDCAD we can see that after reaching the March 2nd NWOG High at 1.3653 and using it as a support, Loonie started to go higher again, reaching the 1.3748 level, above the March 16th NWOG, sweeping the BuySide Liquidity there. After that it experienced a small correction, now being traded at around 1.3717, trying to retest the March 16th NWOG. For now, I expect USDCAD to retest the March 16th NWOG, if it goes through it we can see a move to above the 1.3753 level to sweep the Liquidity there and break the resistance. However, if it fails at retesting the NWOG, an initial drop to 1.3705 is likely, if it uses it as a support, we could see it bounce back up, but if it fails again, it could go further down to the 1.3682 level, which is the Feb 23rd NWOG High, to use it as a support.
by AmirAliTrading
6
USD/CAD | Resistance (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the 2H Chart of USDCAD we can see that with the bullish run, it reached the high of 1.3741, going inside the 4H FVG and going above the C.E., but it failed to hold above and started to drop, going as low as 1.3653, reaching the March 2nd NWOG High and then bounced back up, currently being traded at 1.3695, above the Feb 23rd NWOG. Now, I expect USDCAD to drop and hit the Feb 23rd NWOG high and then go back to reach the higher targets. It also has a resistance ahead of it at 1.3705 which is very vital for USDCAD to break above it strong, otherwise it'll drop again. Now the targets in different scenarios: If it goes straight up without going back to the Feb 23rd NWOG and breaks above the resistance: 1.3705, 1.3713 and 1.3720. If it fails to hold above the Feb 23rd NWOG: 1.3685, 1.3675 and 1.3665. If it bounces back up after hitting the Feb 23rd NWOG: 1.3692, 1.3700, 1.3708 and 1.3716 and 1.3723.
by AmirAliTrading
1
USD/CAD | Where to now? (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see, USDCAD has been in consolidation mood for a few days now, and it is struggling with March 9TH NWOG to go through it but has not been successful yet. And it is currently being traded at 1.3568, just above the NWOG low at 1.3565. I expect USDCAD to go for the NWOG C.E. retest at 1.3582, if it goes through it and stabilizes there, it could go higher to the 1.3614 resistance level. However, not being able to go through the C.E. may indicate further drop for USDCAD, to go below the 1.3525 to sweep the liquidity there and then another upwards move. Targets in case of going through the NWOG C.E.: 1.3575, 1.3583, 1.3591 and 1.3600. If it fails: 1.3560, 1.3550, 1.3540 and 1.3530.
by AmirAliTrading
5
USD/CAD | Retest (READ THE CAPTION)Ever since exactly 2 weeks ago when USDCAD hit the Bullish OB Mean Threshold, it has been constantly going higher and higher, breaking through the bearish OB, sweeping the liquidity above 1.37248 level and then it dropped in price for a correction, and now is being traded at 1.3699 level. So far, there's no indication that USDCAD's Bullish movement has stopped and I expect it to retest the Bearish OB zone and then go for the liquidity above 1.3725 level. Targets: 1.3708, 1.3715, 1.3722 and 1.3729. If it gets rejected by the bearish OB: 1.3698, 1.3691, 1.3684 and 1.3477.
by AmirAliTrading
2
USD/CAD | Sweep first, drop later (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see in the hourly chart of USDCAD, it went through the FVG high, but failed to touch and sweep the liquidity above 1.3655 level, and has dropped back into the FVG and now it is being traded at 1.3642 level. I expect USDCAD to go back up, and sweep the liquidity above 1.3655 within the next 2 hours, and then a little correction. If USDCAD fails to leave the FVG zone and goes below the FVG Midpoint at 1.3638 and closes the candle there: 1.3630, 1.3622 and 1.3614.
by AmirAliTrading
USD/CAD Forecast: Bearish Momentum Builds on Data ReturnThe Tide Turns The USD/CAD exchange rate is losing bullish momentum. Trading near 1.3765, the pair struggles to find direction amidst a broader U.S. Dollar stall. A pivotal shift is underway as the holiday-induced lull ends. Domestic Canadian data is returning to the driver's seat. The market must now account for this potential decoupling from broad USD trends. Macroeconomics: The Data Resurgence The macroeconomic landscape is shifting focus back to Canada. The recent lack of domestic news forced the Loonie to follow the Greenback’s lead. This dynamic ends now. High-impact Canadian releases, including PMIs and trade figures, are imminent. Friday’s employment report stands as the critical catalyst. Recent data shows Canadian economic resilience. If upcoming numbers confirm this strength, the Canadian Dollar will likely outperform its U.S. counterpart. Technical Analysis: Algorithmic Hesitation Market technology and technical patterns signal exhaustion. Algorithmic trading models are struggling to push prices higher. The short-term setup appears neutral to mildly bearish. The rebound from December lows is officially losing steam. Intraday price action reveals significant hesitation rather than a clean bullish extension. The 1.3810 resistance level serves as a critical ceiling that defines the current upper bound. Geostrategy and Industry Trends Canada’s export-heavy economy remains sensitive to global trade currents. The upcoming trade figures will reveal the health of cross-border commerce. A strong trade surplus reinforces the Loonie’s geostrategic value. Conversely, U.S. economic strength appears priced in. The divergence between a resilient Canadian export sector and a stalling U.S. dollar rally creates a distinct market dynamic. Commodity-linked currencies like the CAD are poised to capitalize on any U.S. weakness. Leadership and Monetary Policy Central bank management drives long-term valuation. The Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve are entering a divergent phase. Previous better-than-expected Canadian data empowers the BoC to maintain a firm stance. In contrast, the Fed faces questions about the durability of U.S. growth. This policy divergence favors the CAD. Data will directly impact the forward guidance from Canadian policymakers. Conclusion: A Drift Lower? The path of least resistance currently points lower for the pair. If Canadian data reasserts itself and the broader U.S. dollar rally continues to fade, the exchange rate likely faces downward pressure. The focus remains on whether the pair can hold current support levels or if the bearish momentum will drive a deeper correction.
Short
by the5erstrading
GBP/CAD: Is the "Loonie" Losing Its Wings in the AI Era?The British Pound (GBP) has established a new tactical foothold against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold rates at 2.25%. While the headline narrative focuses on interest rate differentials, smart money is pricing in a deeper "divergence trade" between the UK’s service-led resilience and Canada’s resource-heavy vulnerabilities. This analysis dissects why the GBP/CAD pair is moving, looking beyond the central bank transcripts to the structural shifts in technology, cyber-warfare, and innovation that are redefining these two Commonwealth economies. Macroeconomics: The "Dovish" Hold vs. The "Sticky" Service The immediate catalyst is the BoC’s caution. By holding rates at 2.25% a level considered stimulative Governor Tiff Macklem admitted that Q4 GDP is "likely to be weak." * The CAD Drag: Canada’s economy is sputtering due to soft export demand. The central bank is effectively capping the currency’s upside to protect its export engines. * The GBP Floor: Conversely, the UK’s forecasted 0.1% GDP rebound, while modest, signals stability. The Bank of England (BoE) faces "sticky" service inflation, forcing it to keep rates relatively higher than its Canadian counterpart, creating a yield advantage for Sterling. Geopolitics & Geostrategy: Arctic Tensions & Trade Wars The geopolitical risk premium is weighing heavily on the Loonie. * Canada’s Exposure: Canada is currently navigating a volatile trade environment with its southern neighbour. With protectionist rhetoric heating up in Washington, CAD is vulnerable to US trade tariff threats, which could stifle cross-border commerce. * UK’s Arctic Pivot: Interestingly, the UK is reasserting itself in the "High North." The 2025 renewed interest in Arctic security positions the UK as a key security guarantor for the GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-UK) gap, adding a layer of "security currency" status to the Pound that the purely resource-linked CAD lacks. Industry Trends & High-Tech: The AI Scale War Currency strength in 2025 is increasingly correlated with "Sovereign AI" capabilities. The UK is winning this metric. * UK Dominance: As of late 2025, the UK ranks 3rd globally in AI ecosystem strength, boasting nearly double the number of funded AI startups compared to Canada (885 vs. 481). * The Gap: While Canada has world-class research hubs like MILA, it struggles to commercialize at scale. The UK’s "Silicon Fens" and London fintech corridors are attracting significantly more private AI investment, acting as a magnet for foreign capital that supports the GBP. Cyber & Technology: The Infrastructure Risk A hidden driver of CAD weakness is the "Cyber Discount" applied to its energy sector. * The Threat: 2025 has seen a disturbing spike in ransomware attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure. Canada’s vast pipeline network and industrial control systems are prime targets, creating operational risks that global investors are beginning to price in. * UK Resilience: While London faces high attack volumes, its cyber-defence architecture (focused on financial services) is viewed as more mature and "battle-hardened" than the physical operational technology (OT) protecting Canadian resources. Patents & Innovation: The "Grade D" Problem Long-term currency value is driven by productivity, which is fueled by innovation. * Canada’s Lag: Recent reports continue to grade Canada’s patent output as a "D," noting it punches below its weight in converting R&D into intellectual property. * UK Leadership: In contrast, the UK maintains its status as an "Innovation Leader" (125% of the EU average), particularly in high-value sectors like Quantum Computing and Biotech. This intellectual property surplus creates a long-term "quality" bias for GBP over CAD. Conclusion: The Structural Divergence The GBP/CAD uptick is not a blip; it is a signal. The market is favouring the UK’s service-based, AI-integrated economy over Canada’s resource-dependent model, which is currently besieged by soft demand and cyber threats. > Key Takeaway: The "Loonie" is no longer just an oil proxy; it is a tech laggard. Watch the UK’s AI investment flows if they accelerate, GBP/CAD has structural room to run.
Long
by the5erstrading
USDCAD plunges as BOC vs Fed divergence grows! Can it continue?USDCAD has broken sharply lower following Canada's surprise jobs blowout on Friday, with the pair now pricing in a divergence: the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates Wednesday, while the Fed is expected to cut. Canada added 54,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate plunged to 6.5%, taking a BOC cut off the table. Meanwhile, the Fed is 90% priced to cut by 25bps on Wednesday, narrowing the rate differential and weakening the US dollar against the loonie. Key drivers Canada jobs report beat expectations with +54k positions (vs expected loss), unemployment fell to 6.5% from 6.9% — three straight months of gains totalling 181k jobs.​ BOC decision this week virtually certain to hold at 2.25% after cutting in October and signalling the easing cycle is likely over.​ Fed FOMC decision on Wednesday priced in at 90% odds for a 25bps cut to 3.75–4%, the third consecutive cut driven by cooling US labour and dovish Fed commentary.​ Technical: USDCAD corrected to 50% Fibonacci (1.4140–60) of the 1.4790–1.3543 impulse leg and is now breaking down in a potential head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1.3543. Downside targets: 1.3370–1.3396 (61.8% extension + 50% retracement confluence), 1.3068 (61.8% retracement), and 1.2895 (100% extension full measured move). Risk scenario: Neckline hold above 1.3543 could see bounce back toward 1.36 or 1.43, but below 1.4140, the path of least resistance is lower. Are you trading the USDCAD breakdown? Share your head and shoulders setups in the comments and follow for more central bank divergence and technical trade ideas. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
USD/CAD Outlook: The Bearish Reversal & BoC PivotThe currency markets are witnessing a decisive shift. After months of dominance, the US Dollar is faltering against the Canadian Dollar (Loonie), driving a sharp USD/CAD bearish reversal . Traders who previously bet on continued divergence are now scrambling to reprice their portfolios. This is not merely a technical correction; it is a fundamental realignment driven by surprising Canadian resilience and a cooling US rate trajectory. Macroeconomics: The Great Divergence The central narrative has flipped. For much of 2025, markets assumed the Bank of Canada (BoC) would cut rates aggressively while the Federal Reserve held firm. That assumption is dead. * The BoC Pause: Traders now expect the BoC to have concluded its easing cycle at **2.25%**. With inflation sticky and growth rebounding, the "rate cut" trade is unwinding. * The Fed Pivot: Conversely, swaps markets now price in **four 25-point cuts** from the Fed over the next year. * The Impact: This narrowing yield spread reduces the incentive to hold USD, fueling downside momentum in USD/CAD. Economics & Data Science: The Citi Surprise Market sentiment is often driven by data deviations rather than absolute numbers. The Citi Economic Surprise Index quantifies this "shock factor." * Canada (Red Line): At a reading of **30.7**, Canadian data is beating expectations at the highest rate since August. * USA (Blue Line): While positive, US data is clouded by dated releases due to the recent government shutdown. This divergence proves that Canada’s economy is outperforming consensus models, forcing algorithmic trading systems to buy CAD. Geopolitics & Strategy: The Trade Tension Paradox While macroeconomics drives the current reversal, geopolitics remains the "wild card." The BoC’s October guidance cited "trade tensions with the United States" as a key risk. However, the market’s reaction suggests investors believe these fears are priced in or overstated. The resilience of Canada's export sector, despite tariff rhetoric, demonstrates a geostrategic robustness that is supporting the Loonie. Traders are betting that the deep integration of North American supply chains will prevent a catastrophic breakdown. Technical Analysis & High-Tech: The Bearish Engulfing Algorithmic execution desks are reacting to a powerful signal on the weekly timeframe. The USD/CAD chart has printed a Bearish Engulfing Candle , a technical pattern where a week of gains is completely erased and overtaken by selling pressure. * The Signal: This pattern, appearing after a prolonged uptrend, indicates buyer exhaustion. * The Target: Quants and technical traders view this as a green light to initiate short positions, targeting lower support levels as we enter December. Management & Leadership: The Governing Council The psychology of central banking is shifting. The BoC’s Governing Council, led by Tiff Macklem, is pivoting from "defensive easing" to "data-dependent holding." Their guidance has moved from cautious to neutral. This leadership shift mirrors the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent hawkish hold, which triggered a massive rally in its local currency. If the BoC confirms this stance on **December 10**, the USD/CAD sell-off could accelerate. Conclusion: The December Catalyst The USD/CAD pair stands at a precipice. The convergence of a hawkish BoC, a dovish Fed, and robust Canadian data has created a "perfect storm" for a bearish trend. The immediate focus turns to **Friday’s jobs report**; another strong print would hammer the final nail into the coffin of the 2025 USD bull run. For traders, the trend is clear: the path of least resistance is now lower.
Short
by the5erstrading
1
CADJPY carry trade gains traction with iH&S, targets 118+The CADJPY carry trade is in focus as the yen stays weak and risk appetite lifts CAD toward a bigger breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders base. Japan’s new PM, Takaichi, leans pro‑stimulus, while the BOJ signals no December hike, leaving JPY structurally soft. At the same time, Canada benefits from improved risk tone and a stable BOC policy, which supports CAD strength. Key drivers Structural JPY weakness: A stimulus-first stance and low-rate BOJ keep carry demand elevated, but intervention talk remains a headline risk. CAD tailwinds: US reopening-driven risk-on, oil support, and BOC on hold underpin the loonie. Technicals: An inverse H&S with a neckline projection toward 116–117, with a recent retest near 108–109 holding the line and RSI having room to push higher. Levels: supports at 110.00, then 109.50/108.30, and resistances at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, with the measured move pointing toward 116.5–118 from the neckline break. Bias stays long above 110. Buy dips, invalidate below 108, and scale targets at 111.50, 112.20, and 115.10, leaving a runner at 116.5–118 if the first neckline peak holds. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Why the US Dollar Dominates the Loonie?The USD/CAD pair trades near 1.4100, reflecting the US Dollar's (USD) persistent strength against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This rally to seven-month highs stems from powerful structural and cyclical forces. We observe a widening monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainty that favors the USD. Analyzing macroeconomics, fiscal policy, and trade reveals why the CAD struggles to sustain gains, despite positive Canadian data. Geopolitics and Geostrategy: North American Trade Friction Trade uncertainty directly pressures the CAD. Recent trade tensions with the US create significant CAD headwinds. Prime Minister Mark Carney apologized for an anti-tariff advertisement, but President Trump reportedly rejected resuming trade talks. This situation keeps bilateral trade risk elevated, undermining business confidence in Canada. US court proceedings over broad tariffs further inject political risk into the U.S.-Canada relationship, threatening key sectors like the auto industry. The USD functions as the global reserve safe-haven anchor. Global investors gravitate toward USD assets during times of geopolitical friction. This geostrategic function offers the USD a structural advantage over the commodity-linked CAD, reinforcing the pair's upward momentum. Macroeconomics: Diverging Rate Paths The primary driver remains the widening interest rate differential. Strong US data bolsters the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance. US ADP Employment climbed by 42,000 in October, reversing the prior decline. ISM Services PMI also rose to 52.4, exceeding forecasts. This resilience strengthens the USD. The Fed maintains a cautious approach toward future rate cuts. CME FedWatch Tool data shows traders reduced the probability of a December Fed cut to 62% from 68%. Conversely, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has already cut its policy rate to 2.25%. Although the BoC signaled an easing cycle pause, markets focus on expected future divergence. This policy gap favors dollar-denominated assets, pushing the USD/CAD higher. Economics and Fiscal Policy Headwinds Canada's fiscal policy adds downward pressure on the CAD. The new Canadian budget projects the fiscal deficit will more than double this year. Deficit projections reach -2.5% of GDP for 2025/26 and -2.0% for 2026/27, representing material fiscal loosening. Markets interpret this spending as potentially inflationary without sufficient growth, weakening the CAD. Furthermore, the CAD remains highly sensitive to crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades near $\$60.00$ per barrel, declining slightly. As a major oil exporter, softer energy prices negatively impact Canada's terms of trade and export revenue, directly pressuring the Loonie. Technology and Patent Analysis: The Competitiveness Gap Structural economic factors underpin the CAD weakness. Canada faces an ongoing competitiveness gap with the US, particularly in high-tech and innovation sectors. Persistent lower productivity growth in Canada compared to the US makes the Canadian economy less appealing for long-term capital investment. The US economy demonstrates superior labor productivity growth and strong performance in advanced industries. This technology and innovation lag limits the CAD's potential for sustained appreciation. The US also benefits from acting as a "black hole" attraction for Canadian talent and intellectual property. This fundamental economic divergence provides structural support for the Greenback's long-term dominance.
Long
by the5erstrading
USD/CAD: Bearish Loonie SlideUSD/CAD: Bearish Loonie Slide Amid #Fed Cut Hype and #Forex Volatility Buzz? 1.39 Breakout Target in Sight? USD/CAD is trading at 1.3795 today, up 0.17% amid a rebound from 1.3728 lows as markets eye the Fed's rate decision later, with 65% odds of a 50bps cut to 4.00-4.25% pressuring the dollar but offset by BoC's own easing signals. This follows a 0.25% CAD gain earlier in the week on CPI data, but the pair remains range-bound with analysts forecasting a bearish tilt to 1.35 by year-end if Fed cuts deepen. Just as #Fed surges with 15K mentions on X amid rate speculation, and #Forex trends spotlight policy divergence (e.g., BoC vs. Fed easing), USD/CAD's sensitivity to oil and CAD vulnerability position it for choppy action in the $1.8T daily forex market. But with volatility at 3.88%, is USD/CAD undervalued for a bull run to 1.39, or will dovish Fed trigger a CAD rebound? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 18, 2025. Fundamental Analysis USD/CAD's trajectory hinges on diverging central bank paths, with the BoC's recent cuts weakening the loonie while Fed easing caps USD upside—yet oil prices above $70/bbl support CAD via Canada's export reliance. Analysts project a 2025 average of 1.35, bearish on CAD amid #Fed cuts, but short-term resistance at 1.3800 could hold if US data softens. With #Forex volatility buzzing, the pair's undervaluation shines in a risk-on environment if Fed delivers 50bps, but sticky US inflation (2.6% core) risks a hawkish pivot. - **Positive:** - BoC easing and CAD vulnerability amid #Forex hype project USD strength to 1.3863 if Fed holds steady. - Oil tailwinds and EM inflows (e.g., SA bonds) bolster CAD floors, undervaluing the pair at current levels vs. 1.40 peaks. - Broader #Fed trends favor USD if dot plot signals fewer cuts, eyeing 0.5% monthly gains. - **Negative:** - Dovish Fed expectations weaken USD, clashing with #Fed optimism if 50bps cut confirms CAD rebound. - Canada CPI resilience (2.0% YoY) could strengthen CAD if BoC pauses, pressuring the pair lower. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Policy divergence favors USD with Fed's relative hawkishness vs. BoC, amplified by #Fed relevance in dollar sentiment. **Weaknesses:** High oil correlation exposes CAD upside; overbought momentum vulnerable in #Forex-shifting markets post-Fed. **Opportunities:** Fed cut confirmation narrows spreads, with undervalued bull potential to 1.3891 amid #Fed boom. **Threats:** Hawkish BoC surprises eroding gains; competition from AUD/CAD if commodity trends capitalize on #Forex volatility. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, USD/CAD rebounds in an ascending channel from 1.3728 support, with a pivot at 1.3800 mirroring #Fed volatility spikes. The weekly shows neutral bias with 1.3889 as key breakout. Current price: 1.3795, with VWAP at 1.3770 as intraday balance. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 55, neutral—potential bull signal amid #Fed surge. 📈 - **MACD:** Histogram positive, crossover holding for upside. - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA (1.3750) but testing 50-day SMA (1.3820)—bullish if holds. Support/Resistance: Support at 1.3728 (recent low), resistance at 1.3863 and 1.3891. Patterns/Momentum: Channel bounce targets 1.3863; fueled by #Forex momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Higher lows on volume. 🔴 Bearish risks: Failure at 1.3800 eyes 1.36. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above 1.3863 on hawkish Fed targets 1.3891; long on pullbacks to 1.3728, especially if #Fed signals fewer cuts. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below 1.3728 eyes 1.3538; watch for CAD cross amid #Forex fade on dovish pivot. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound 1.3728–1.3863 if dot plot mixed and #Fed cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at 1.3700. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #Fed-linked pairs like EUR/USD. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if USD/CAD holds 1.3728, supercharged by today's #Fed and #Forex trends, with 0.7% upside to 1.39 on policy divergence. But watch the Fed outcome for confirmation—this fits September's rate volatility theme amid easing hype. What’s your take? Bullish on USD/CAD amid #Fed cuts or fading the loonie? Share in the comments!
by DCAChampion
GBPCAD breakout or rejection? All eyes on 1.8850!GBPCAD is testing a major technical zone as macro and price catalysts align. Here's what traders need to know: Catalysts & Macro Drivers GBP : Supported by USD weakness (US shutdown, weak data), sticky UK inflation, and Bank of England caution. November’s UK budget looms as a key event. CAD : Under pressure from falling oil prices (oversupply/weak demand) and a dovish Bank of Canada. Further rate cuts are possible, especially if oil stays low. Technical Outlook Weekly chart : Strong impulsive rally past 61.8% Fibonacci (1.8310), with 1.9490 (78.6% Fib) as the next longer-term upside target. 4h chart : Ascending triangle with resistance at 1.8850. Breakout/close above 1.8850 confirms bullish momentum, with targets at 1.90 and then 1.93–1.95. RSI : Long-term RSI above 60 signals strength, but divergence is a risk factor. Watch for RSI reset or failure at highs. Trading Scenarios Bullish : Hold above 1.8850 for 3 sessions +, look for upside extension to 1.90/1.93/1.95. Bearish : Failure to break 1.8850 or drop below 1.8600 could trigger reversal to 1.84/1.81 support. Levels to Watch Key resistance: 1.8850, 1.9000, 1.9340, 1.9490 Key support: 1.8600, 1.8400, 1.8310 This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
Heading into multi swing high resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which acts as a multi-swing high support. Pivot: 1.3758 1st Support: 1.3574 1st Resistance: 1.3844 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by IC Markets
USD/CAD H4 | Potential bearish reversalUSD/CAD is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.3701 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3740 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 1.3653 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
UShort
by Tradu
USD/CAD H4 | Potential bearish reversalUSD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.3617 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 1.3655 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 1.3560 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
UShort
by Tradu